Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 3

[crab]

Ryan Murray at that price would’ve been nice. Ideally at the same time shipping off Schultz and Kempny.

 

[tenken00]

Yeah. Like I said it was a weird year. But you can only use the numbers you have in front of you.

It also shows that most of the games against bad teams (Buffalo, New Jersey, Philadelphia) was front loaded and early in the season. And the rest of the games were backloaded. We were hurt at the end of last season, but we were already trending downward since we were playing those teams.

There was a little bit of a buzz against the Islanders in a very late series, but that faded away until the last 3 games (Tom Wilson + Rangers games, Boston sitting out 30 players in the final game of the season).

Actually, it was the last 5 games since there was a Philly series in between the NYR and final Boston.

And I guess I was wrong. The latter part doesn't seem that bad. There is the huge 3 game series win against Islanders. Unfortunately, the division leading losses to Pittsburgh happened right after.

DATE	OPPONENT	RESULT	W-L-OTL	GOALIE	TOP PERFORMER
Thu, Jan 14	@Buffalo	W6-4	1-0-0	Samsonov	Oshie
Fri, Jan 15	@Buffalo	W2-1	2-0-0	Vanecek	Vanecek
Sun, Jan 17	@Pittsburgh	L4-3 SO	2-0-1	Samsonov	Ovechkin
Tue, Jan 19	@Pittsburgh	L5-4 OT	2-0-2	Vanecek	Wilson
Fri, Jan 22	vsBuffalo	W4-3 SO	3-0-2	Vanecek	Vrana
Sun, Jan 24	vsBuffalo	L4-3 SO	3-0-3	Vanecek	Vanecek
Tue, Jan 26	vsNew York	W3-2	4-0-3	Vanecek	Schultz
Thu, Jan 28	vsNew York	W6-3	5-0-3	Vanecek	Carlson
Sat, Jan 30	vsBoston	W4-3 OT	6-0-3	Vanecek	Vanecek
Mon, Feb 1	vsBoston	L5-3	6-1-3	Vanecek	Vrana
Thu, Feb 4	@New York	L4-2	6-2-3	Vanecek	Ovechkin
Sun, Feb 7	vsPhiladelphia	L7-4	6-3-3	Anderson	Wilson
Tue, Feb 9	vsPhiladelphia	POSTPONED
Thu, Feb 11	@Buffalo	POSTPONED
Sat, Feb 13	@Buffalo	POSTPONED
Sun, Feb 14	@Pittsburgh	L6-3	6-4-3	Vanecek	Vrana
Tue, Feb 16	@Pittsburgh	W3-1	7-4-3	Vanecek	Vanecek
Thu, Feb 18	vsBuffalo	W3-1	8-4-3	Vanecek	Vanecek
Sat, Feb 20	vsNew York	L4-1	8-5-3	Vanecek	Orlov
Sun, Feb 21	vsNew Jersey	W4-3	9-5-3	Anderson	Oshie
Tue, Feb 23	vsPittsburgh	L3-2 OT	9-5-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Thu, Feb 25	vsPittsburgh	W5-2	10-5-4	Vanecek	Backstrom
Sat, Feb 27	@New Jersey	W5-2	11-5-4	Vanecek	Carlson
Sun, Feb 28	@New Jersey	W3-2	12-5-4	Samsonov	Vrana
Wed, Mar 3	@Boston	W2-1 SO	13-5-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Fri, Mar 5	@Boston	L5-1	13-6-4	Vanecek	Vrana
Sun, Mar 7	@Philadelphia	W3-1	14-6-4	Samsonov	Samsonov
Tue, Mar 9	vsNew Jersey	W5-4 OT	15-6-4	Vanecek	Vrana
Thu, Mar 11	@Philadelphia	W5-3	16-6-4	Samsonov	Dowd
Sat, Mar 13	@Philadelphia	W5-4	17-6-4	Samsonov	Hagelin
Mon, Mar 15	@Buffalo	W6-0	18-6-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Tue, Mar 16	vsNew York	W3-1	19-6-4	Samsonov	Samsonov
Fri, Mar 19	vsNew York	W2-1	20-6-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Sat, Mar 20	vsNew York	L3-1	20-7-4	Samsonov	Backstrom
Thu, Mar 25	vsNew Jersey	W4-3	21-7-4	Vanecek	Ovechkin
Fri, Mar 26	vsNew Jersey	W4-0	22-7-4	Samsonov	Samsonov
Sun, Mar 28	vsNew York	W5-4	23-7-4	Samsonov	Oshie
Tue, Mar 30	@New York	L5-2	23-8-4	Vanecek	Dillon
Thu, Apr 1	@New York	L8-4	23-9-4	Samsonov	Sprong
Fri, Apr 2	@New Jersey	W2-1 OT	24-9-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Sun, Apr 4	@New Jersey	W5-4	25-9-4	Samsonov	Ovechkin
Tue, Apr 6	@New York	L1-0	25-10-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Thu, Apr 8	vsBoston	L4-2	25-11-4	Samsonov	Carlson
Fri, Apr 9	@Buffalo	W4-3	26-11-4	Vanecek	Schultz
Sun, Apr 11	@Boston	W8-1	27-11-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Tue, Apr 13	vsPhiladelphia	W6-1	28-11-4	Samsonov	Samsonov
Thu, Apr 15	vsBuffalo	L5-2	28-12-4	Vanecek	Orlov
Sat, Apr 17	@Philadelphia	W6-3	29-12-4	Samsonov	Ovechkin
Sun, Apr 18	@Boston	L6-3	29-13-4	Vanecek	Oshie
Thu, Apr 22	@New York	W1-0 SO	30-13-4	Samsonov	Samsonov
Sat, Apr 24	@New York	W6-3	31-13-4	Samsonov	Sprong
Tue, Apr 27	vsNew York	W1-0	32-13-4	Vanecek	Vanecek
Thu, Apr 29	vsPittsburgh	L5-4 OT	32-13-5	Vanecek	Orlov
Sat, May 1	vsPittsburgh	L3-0	32-14-5	Samsonov	Mantha
Mon, May 3	@New York	W6-3	33-14-5	Vanecek	Hathaway
Wed, May 5	@New York	W4-2	34-14-5	Vanecek	Oshie
Fri, May 7	vsPhiladelphia	L4-2	34-15-5	Vanecek	Dillon
Sat, May 8	vsPhiladelphia	W2-1 OT	35-15-5	Anderson	Anderson
Tue, May 11	vsBoston	W2-1	36-15-5	Vanecek	Vanecek

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[txpd]

I think going out 3 times in a row in the first round is the very definition of mediocre just by that fact alone. That's literally being a treadmill team. Teams that are just good enough to make it but never good enough to go anywhere. Thereby never bad enough to get franchise changing picks and yet not good enough to win a championship. Thus continuing the cycle all over again. Maybe Laviolette can work his 2nd year magic and maybe this all changes. I hope that happens. But I can't bet money on it.

We don't have the cap space or the assets to grab truly game-breaking players. The only way we can do that without radically altering the team is to hope that the kids develop into game-breaking players. Because right now, we don't really have any game-breaking players outside of Samsonov standing on his head this year. Or maybe Mantha going off.

(Edit: I mean new game-breaking players that could alter the trajectory of the team. Of course Ovie and the others can break games themselves!)

I've said it last year in the WFT thread. Is the goal to win a championship or to make the playoffs? I don't know. To me, a championship is everything. If I had to pick between a 2nd Ovechkin Cup or 895, I would pick the Cup.

I just think you put too much value in losing in the first round. Same as I think some put too much value in that they won once. Maybe its my racing career that focuses that for me. If I am running second and challenging for a win and the guy ahead breaks a power steering line and I crash in the fluid on the track(it happened just that way) or I run over a bolt that fell off a car and cut a tire, I am not making structural changes to me team and race car. I would make structural changes if we were not keeping up and not a threat to be in the race for the win.

The Caps lost the 1st and 3rd of those first rounds on circumstances and lost the 2nd for a structural failure. They made changes to fix that failure.

Here's the other thing about racing. There are a lot of options to adjust to make the car go faster. Unless you are sure what the problem is you risk changing something that shouldn't be changed and making things worse. Anyone think that the Caps had a cup winning coach in Reirden and they needed to change the core of the team instead? No.

Either you think the injuries to the top half of the lineup hurt their playoff game significantly and the injuries will be a continued problem because of age or you believe that without that number of crucial injuries they are a competitive team. Even with the injuries and the goaltending situation they realistically could have won the first 3 games of that series. There is nothing that I saw to prove that the healthy quality of the core of the team is substandard. But you know, this is all subjective. Just remember that with a race car if you make a shock change to soften the car and find that's not what was wrong with it, you can change the shock setting back and try something else. When MacLellan removes John Carlson and finds that wasn't the trouble, he can't just get Carlson back

 

[txpd]

Yeah. Like I said it was a weird year. But you can only use the numbers you have in front of you.

It also shows that most of the games against bad teams (Buffalo, New Jersey, Philadelphia) was front loaded and early in the season. And the rest of the games were backloaded. We were hurt at the end of last season, but we were already trending downward since we were playing those teams.

Reminder that Philly was a playoff team on the rise coming into this season and they came out of the gates hard. Their issues hit them hard at the halfway mark where they dropped out of contention. In the first half when the Caps were lost in a new coaching system all those games against the Flyers were against a Flyers team considered a cup contender. IIRC Buffalo didnt suck early on either. Certainly nothing like they were late.

 

[tenken00]

I just think you put too much value in losing in the first round. Same as I think some put too much value in that they won once. Maybe its my racing career that focuses that for me. If I am running second and challenging for a win and the guy ahead breaks a power steering line and I crash in the fluid on the track(it happened just that way) or I run over a bolt that fell off a car and cut a tire, I am not making structural changes to me team and race car. I would make structural changes if we were not keeping up and not a threat to be in the race for the win.

The Caps lost the 1st and 3rd of those first rounds on circumstances and lost the 2nd for a structural failure. They made changes to fix that failure.

Here's the other thing about racing. There are a lot of options to adjust to make the car go faster. Unless you are sure what the problem is you risk changing something that shouldn't be changed and making things worse. Anyone think that the Caps had a cup winning coach in Reirden and they needed to change the core of the team instead? No.

Either you think the injuries to the top half of the lineup hurt their playoff game significantly and the injuries will be a continued problem because of age or you believe that without that number of crucial injuries they are a competitive team. Even with the injuries and the goaltending situation they realistically could have won the first 3 games of that series. There is nothing that I saw to prove that the healthy quality of the core of the team is substandard. But you know, this is all subjective. Just remember that with a race car if make a shock change to soften the car and find that's not what was wrong with it, you can change the shock setting back and try something else. When MacLellan removes John Carlson and finds that wasn't the trouble, he can't just get Carlson back

I think you said you did F1 racing. If you placed in the bottom of the standings 3 years in a row, due to circumstances or structural failure or anything, would you think you are close to winning with the exact same car and exact same driver the next year?

It's not 3 races in a row. It's 3 years in a row.

3 races would be the equivalent to Game 3, Game 4, Game 5 against the Bruins.

 

[txpd]

Fail

 

[txpd]

I think you said you did F1 racing. If you placed in the bottom of the standings 3 years in a row, due to circumstances or structural failure or anything, would you think you are close to winning with the exact same car and exact same driver the next year?

It's not 3 races in a row. It's 3 years in a row.

3 races would be the equivalent to Game 3, Game 4, Game 5 against the Bruins.

God no. F1 is no fun and is WAY over my head. I did American sports car racing. Mustangs in my case.

Here is the disconnect. You just said it. You see a division championship and a first round out as finishing in the bottom of the standings. I see it as running competitively in the top 5 and having an event keep you from winning. I said that if my team couldnt keep up and wasnt in the race for the win, i would make changes.

You see the first round failure as no different than making it in the playoffs on the last day with a crappy 8th seed and getting bounced right away. I see it the other way. The team is in a position to win every season.

Thats the part that frustrates you. Save for the Adam Oates seasons the Bruce thru Lavy Caps teams had a legit chance to win a cup every season and have only 1 once. Joel Ward was one of the great playoff performers, yet he is the guy with the high sticking penalty that lost that game to the Rangers and killed them Trotz first season. They tried Justin Williams and that failed. Was it Williams? Was Devo really better? Of course not.

 

[tenken00]

God no. F1 is no fun and is WAY over my head. I did American sports car racing. Mustangs in my case.

Here is the disconnect. You just said it. You see a division championship and a first round out as finishing in the bottom of the standings. I see it as running competitively in the top 5 and having an event keep you from winning. I said that if my team couldnt keep up and wasnt in the race for the win, i would make changes.

You see the first round failure as no different than making it in the playoffs on the last day with a crappy 8th seed and getting bounced right away. I see it the other way. The team is in a position to win every season.

Thats the part that frustrates you. Save for the Adam Oates seasons the Bruce thru Lavy Caps teams had a legit chance to win a cup every season and have only 1 once. Joel Ward was one of the great playoff performers, yet he is the guy with the high sticking penalty that lost that game to the Rangers and killed them Trotz first season. They tried Justin Williams and that failed. Was it Williams? Was Devo really better? Of course not.

Of course every frustration was built up. But 2018 really did wash away everything that happened before away. Now everything afterwards is all anew.

I wish the Caps were only a bolt that fell off the car away. Or a Joel Ward high stick penalty away. That would mean we were in Game 7. A 1st round Game 7, but still Game 7.

We can't even make it past 1 win in a series.

That's the frustration. We can't even point to something and say, "You know if this happened or the puck just bounced this way instead, we would have 100% won the series."

I wouldn't mind keeping it going. But at least show that you are getting somewhere.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

IMO all they can do is field the best team they can, and hope for success beyond that.

If they were a crap regular season team, we would be having a different conversation.

 

[tenken00]

IMO all they can do is field the best team they can, and hope for success beyond that.

If they were a crap regular season team, we would be having a different conversation.

I think we all agree on this. It's just how we're going to go about it that we disagree with. And while I respect @txpd's opinion, I just would rather go with 22 year old Alexeyev than 45 year old Chara. Or at least settle him in sometime this season. I would rather not try to exactly replicate last year's team

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I guess Peca is moving on. Would've liked to have seen him get a chance on the coaching staff here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I think we all agree on this. It's just how we're going to go about it that we disagree with. And while I respect @txpd's opinion, I just would rather go with 22 year old Alexeyev than 45 year old Chara. Or at least settle him in sometime this season. I would rather not try to exactly replicate last year's team

throwing a 22 yr old into a position where he must play great to not derail the team goals is a tough path. If he was a young Victor Hedman or otherwise super special, we would have seen him press for NHL roster time already, he needs his finishing, but super close IMO. They added a very respectable Chara to a roster with some key guys who had a high No Fks given aura about them.

The roster is almost never the same, so that won’t be a problem.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I guess Peca is moving on. Would've liked to have seen him get a chance on the coaching staff here.

bummer….you have to wonder what goes into those moves behind the scenes….

 

[tenken00]

throwing a 22 yr old into a position where he must play great to not derail the team goals is a tough path. If he was a young Victor Hedman or otherwise super special, we would have seen him press for NHL roster time already, he needs his finishing, but super close IMO. They added a very respectable Chara to a roster with some key guys who had a high No Fks given aura about them.

The roster is almost never the same, so that won’t be a problem.

The thing is Alexeyev *may* be a solution. Or part of the solution eventually.

45 year old Chara is not. Not eventually. Not now.

 

[txpd]

I think we all agree on this. It's just how we're going to go about it that we disagree with. And while I respect @txpd's opinion, I just would rather go with 22 year old Alexeyev than 45 year old Chara. Or at least settle him in sometime this season. I would rather not try to exactly replicate last year's team

Dillon is out. Fehervary is in. There are only 6 playing at a time. So, its already changed in a significant way. If they change Kempny for Chara, there is another significant change in the makeup of the group. How much more do they need to do so to not replicate last season's roster?

If my guess is that they are not keeping a 7th d on the daily roster and will plug Alexeyev in whenever there is an injury hole, the one of the right defense are going out before the season starts. I would expect that to be Jensen or Schultz. If that happens, then the standard 6 starting defensemen has been changed by half and the amount of physical capability reduced significantly. If Schultz is out and TvR in, then the offensive capability has been reduced too.

 

[txpd]

The thing is Alexeyev *may* be a solution. Or part of the solution eventually.

45 year old Chara is not. Not eventually. Not now.

When you need to win the game tonight, regular or playoffs, you need to win now. Not eventually. Char is about now. You think Alexeyev is a better player now than Chara still is? Can Alexeyev do anything that Chara does well? Is there anyone else on the roster than can do what Chara does well? Is there anyone else that can do what Alexeyev does best?

 

[txpd]

bummer….you have to wonder what goes into those moves behind the scenes….

Just on the surface at least, Peca was the taxi squad coach and there wont be anymore taxi squad to coach.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Just on the surface at least, Peca was the taxi squad coach and there wont be anymore taxi squad to coach.

Peca was also working with the centerman on face offs and believe he helped to improve Dowd quite a bit in that skill.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Fehervary fills the Chara vacancy on the roster
Kempny fills the Dillon vacancy on the roster

Remains to be seen the pairings and who will be the 7th dman. I would expect they'll delay AA's arrival until after the TDL. This way you're not working with two rookies along the blue line right away. Besides AA gets more time at Hershey and developing. At TDL I see the Caps moving Schultz and Kempny, so that's the time AA will be brought up along with another dman from Hershey.

 

[txpd]

Peca was also working with the centerman on face offs and believe he helped to improve Dowd quite a bit in that skill.

Thats quite true but his budget line was as the taxi squad coach. For him to stay they would have had to replace one of the current asst coaches. Lavy didn't want to do that. No question about the value of the face off instruction. MacLellan needs to convince Lavy that having Dale Hunter down a couple times a season to work with the centers has worked for a very long time.

 

[Kalopsia]

When you need to win the game tonight, regular or playoffs, you need to win now. Not eventually. Char is about now. You think Alexeyev is a better player now than Chara still is? Can Alexeyev do anything that Chara does well? Is there anyone else on the roster than can do what Chara does well? Is there anyone else that can do what Alexeyev does best?

I would much rather have a 22 year old Alexeyev with a year of NHL experience under his belt as my 6D than a 45 year old Chara who’s just slogged through a compressed 82 game schedule. No way does Chara have anything left in the tank come April if he’s a regular this season. Alexeyev’s a gamble, but I’ll take a gamble over a guy I know is washed.

That said, I think the Caps are gonna roll the dice with Kempny rather than playing Alexeyev or bringing back Chara.

 

[Hivemind]

You think Alexeyev is a better player now than Chara still is?

Yes.

Chara was mediocre last year in the regular season, ate a bunch of PK minutes (but gave up a bunch of goals against while doing so), and was downright bad in the playoffs. Time to let our young D step up and eat some PK minutes instead of sheltering them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fehervary fills the Chara vacancy on the roster
Kempny fills the Dillon vacancy on the roster

Remains to be seen the pairings and who will be the 7th dman. I would expect they'll delay AA's arrival until after the TDL. This way you're not working with two rookies along the blue line right away. Besides AA gets more time at Hershey and developing. At TDL I see the Caps moving Schultz and Kempny, so that's the time AA will be brought up along with another dman from Hershey.

For that to happen, feels like they would have to suck all year.

Secondarily, I’m not convinced they’ll be here on opening night much less at the trade deadline.

 

[tenken00]

When you need to win the game tonight, regular or playoffs, you need to win now. Not eventually. Char is about now. You think Alexeyev is a better player now than Chara still is? Can Alexeyev do anything that Chara does well? Is there anyone else on the roster than can do what Chara does well? Is there anyone else that can do what Alexeyev does best?

That was the whole point I was trying to make the past few pages. I don't know if we are winning it all this year with either Chara or Alexeyev. But I would feel better losing with Alexeyev than Chara. Need to at least start the movement towards youth.

As for your question: Alexeyev. Because it won't be right now Alexeyev vs right now Chara.

It will be end of season Alexeyev vs end of season Chara.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That was the whole point I was trying to make the past few pages. I don't know if we are winning it all this year with either Chara or Alexeyev. But I would feel better losing with Alexeyev than Chara. Need to at least start the movement towards youth.

As for your question: Alexeyev. Because it won't be right now Alexeyev vs right now Chara.

It will be end of season Alexeyev vs end of season Chara.

All AA has to do is win a job. Chara isn’t being gifted anything.