Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 3

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Rayquaza64

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what do YOU guys think we should do if we miss the playoffs? i dont necessarily think we will nor do i necessarily want us to, but if its going to happen it would likely happen this year. this is all hypothetical of course so if you think im way out of my mind thinking we have any shot at missing thats perfectly fine!
 

Roshi

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Feb 7, 2013
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what do YOU guys think we should do if we miss the playoffs? i dont necessarily think we will nor do i necessarily want us to, but if its going to happen it would likely happen this year. this is all hypothetical of course so if you think im way out of my mind thinking we have any shot at missing thats perfectly fine!

theres no answer to that yet, you would first need to see how the season goes and draw your guidelines from there. Much of regression or injuries or goalies failing or whatever, need to specify the reason first.

I dont like people calling out CAR-series, that was game7 ot series against a good team and we were hangovered. Islanders series sucked, there was asterix on it anyhow as it was the bubble-playoffs. Boston matched great against our team, but that also was a series that could have gone either way if we win one or two overtimes at the start of the series. The differences between the teams are so close, you just need to get the bounces going your way and anything can go down. A five game villain Carlson might end up being a ten game hero next series.

the fact we have still been good in regulation season is encouraging. Thats a larger sample size and shows we have the skill and core to cause problems to anyone in this league. If we fail to find reg season success too, then im in for quick fixes here and there, but 10 months is a long time in hockey and to throw someone under the bus even before the season starts isnt a good place to get it going.

But my eyes will heavily be on Kuzy and Samsonov, and will be also watching what Carlson does. All those guys will be very hard to replace though.
 
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Hivemind

We're Touched
Oct 8, 2010
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what do YOU guys think we should do if we miss the playoffs? i dont necessarily think we will nor do i necessarily want us to, but if its going to happen it would likely happen this year. this is all hypothetical of course so if you think im way out of my mind thinking we have any shot at missing thats perfectly fine!
If they do miss the playoffs, the 894 circus will have fully taken over team priorities at that point. Fire Laviolette and then let Ovie become the de facto GM for his last handful of years. If he wants to keep his friends (like Kuznetsov) around, then they stay. If he wants to go balls-to-the-wall for one last chance at a Cup, then players and prospects start getting dealt away. Keep him happy and productive. Keep PP1 effective with him as the trigger man.
 

HTFN

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Feb 8, 2009
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If they do miss the playoffs, the 894 circus will have fully taken over team priorities at that point. Fire Laviolette and then let Ovie become the de facto GM for his last handful of years. If he wants to keep his friends (like Kuznetsov) around, then they stay. If he wants to go balls-to-the-wall for one last chance at a Cup, then players and prospects start getting dealt away. Keep him happy and productive. Keep PP1 effective with him as the trigger man.
Honestly I thought that's where we were this year, with the Lundqvist (and then subsequent Chara) signing it had this feeling of walking him in and saying "alright, who on this list have you always wanted to play with?"

I could easily be wrong but sometimes I feel like they're going to keep leaning towards older guys that Ovechkin has played against and come to respect even if it means getting them a bit late, and seeing how far Yesterday's All-Star Team will take them while they have a good old time on the way out. I don't always hate that, even if I recognize it's probably not the most competitive play.
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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I don't get where all the fretting about missing the playoffs is coming from.

I think this is what happens when people have become too used to expecting deep Cup runs every season, and then the franchise reverts to "get in and see what happens" status.

Anyway, Trotz was not canned in Jan/Feb 2018, his 4th year, when the team appeared sunk, and we know what happened. And Lavi has more SCF pedigree than Trotz did. I don't see them firing Lavi in year 2 for any reason--even missing the playoffs if that were to somehow happen. It's impossible to say what player moves would be made but I doubt it would be a full rebuild with Ovie on his sunset contract. It would probably depend on injuries and who's been hot vs not (looking directly at guys like Kuzy, Oshie, Mantha, bottom 6, bottom pairs).
 
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TheLegendOfPatPeake

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Jun 12, 2020
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I don't get where all the fretting about missing the playoffs is coming from.

I think this is what happens when people have become too used to expecting deep Cup runs every season, and then the franchise reverts to "get in and see what happens" status.

Anyway, Trotz was not canned in Jan/Feb 2018, his 4th year, when the team appeared sunk, and we know what happened. And Lavi has more SCF pedigree than Trotz did. I don't see them firing Lavi in year 2 for any reason--even missing the playoffs if that were to somehow happen. It's impossible to say what player moves would be made but I doubt it would be a full rebuild with Ovie on his sunset contract. It would probably depend on injuries and who's been hot vs not (looking directly at guys like Kuzy, Oshie, Mantha, bottom 6, bottom pairs).
That defensive core is abysmal as it currently stands, combined with inconsistent goaltending. I would imagine that is where most of the “fretting” is coming from.
 
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g00n

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That defensive core is abysmal as it currently stands, combined with inconsistent goaltending. I would imagine that is where most of the “fretting” is coming from.

Maybe for some, but most of the complaining has been about the "old, slow core" dragging the team into obscurity.

I agree that a solid D and reliable G are critical. I think everyone understands that. But I seriously doubt we go the entire season with crap goaltending and D and no moves to remedy that by the TDL or sooner if missing the playoffs is on the table.

The edict from on high is "we don't miss the playoffs". The shakeup after Oates/Gmgm confirmed that. The only way this franchise is allowed to miss the playoffs is if we're in full rebuild after Ovie is gone.
 

txpd

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That defensive core is abysmal as it currently stands, combined with inconsistent goaltending. I would imagine that is where most of the “fretting” is coming from.

I dont read this forum that way at all. Most people that see a bad season coming like Samsonov and think he likely as a bright spot. They lay the doom in the lap of Backstrom, Oshie, Ovechkin and Carlson. To the extent the defense is questioned its layed at Carlson's door. Its not mentioned but you could probably put Eller in that catagory too. The rest of the team isn't old and slow. Hagelin might be old but.....you know. Mantha might be slow but he's not old. Assuming no Chara, who else on the defense is old and slow?

Past Carlson, who is inconsistent among the d? At this point we pretty much know what to expect from Orlov, Jensen, and TvR. Fehervary as a rookie and Kempny coming off injury are unknown quantities.

What I think is that a lot of posters want a different kind of team. The age issue is a convenient reason to move the team off to a new style of hockey with new players. Thats just my opinion, though. I could be wrong.
 
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txpd

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I don't get where all the fretting about missing the playoffs is coming from.
.

A snowball rolling down hill headed for hell. After the doom of 3 first round exits in a row, the team needed to trade Carlson, Wilson and maybe Kuzy because they dont have a 1c anymore and Carlson isnt a 1d. Oshie is slow and old and letting him go in expansion felt good too. Replacing these players with a different type of player for a different kind of team. They are resigned to having to keep Backstrom and Ovechkin but are at various levels of not liking that.

The Caps didnt do any of that. Lavy can't coach. Usage of Sprong and TvR proves that. Usage of Kuzy proves that. MacLellan is now an anchor. Leonsis is a owner with misplaced priorities. The team is teetering on the edge of oblivion. Since they cant win a cup from the edge of oblivion, then why not throw in the towel and go for a good draft pick?

Thats where it comes from. IMO
 

Langway

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Jul 7, 2006
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Past Carlson, who is inconsistent among the d? At this point we pretty much know what to expect from Orlov, Jensen, and TvR. Fehervary as a rookie and Kempny coming off injury are unknown quantities.
They had trouble holding leads last year as it was and this is a much less tested defensive group overall minus two fairly key defenders in Chara & Dillon. Their PK was ranked 5th last year and they'll be without their 1st and 4th D from that unit. It's a real obstacle IMO. Maybe Fehervary adds more offense and mobility for better possession play, albeit it'll likely take some time for that. As-is their shutdown ability looks weaker than it was and a lot may hinge on just how good Fehervary can be as an all-situations rookie. It's a tough ask. Overall they were already middle of the pack in goals against average and just two playoff teams had a higher GAA. They're not exactly suited as-is to make life any easier for Samsonov & Vanecek. Maybe Alexeyev joins the mix and can be more of what they're missing from Chara/Dillon. Maybe Chara does return. But for the moment it's a weaker group and it already wasn't that solid.

It's not just that they're getting older up front it's that they're becoming a lesser possession team because of it and a further weakened blueline likely makes that situation worse (in outcome if not in underlying metrics). It seems very risky to trust that this group will end up defending well enough and it's not like there's amazing offensive potential to compensate in playing a more run-and-gun style.
 
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g00n

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They had trouble holding leads last year as it was and this is a much less tested defensive group overall minus two fairly key defenders in Chara & Dillon. Their PK was ranked 5th last year and they'll be without their 1st and 4th D from that unit. It's a real obstacle IMO. Maybe Fehervary adds more offense and mobility for better possession play, albeit it'll likely take some time for that. As-is their shutdown ability looks weaker than it was and a lot may hinge on just how good Fehervary can be as an all-situations rookie. It's a tough ask. Overall they were already middle of the pack in goals against average and just two playoff teams had a higher GAA. They're not exactly suited as-is to make life any easier for Samsonov & Vanecek. Maybe Alexeyev joins the mix and can be more of what they're missing from Chara/Dillon. Maybe Chara does return. But for the moment it's a weaker group and it already wasn't that solid.

It's not just that they're getting older up front it's that they're becoming a lesser possession team because of it and a further weakened blueline likely makes that situation worse (in outcome if not in underlying metrics). It seems very risky to trust that this group will end up defending well enough and it's not like there's amazing offensive potential to compensate in playing a more run-and-gun style.

There's no question they had issues last year but I think the point is some people are looking at unknowns with doom and gloom while others are saying "we don't know yet, why assume the unknown is worse than the known?"

How many of us predicted the blown lead problem before last season? Our D looked pretty good on paper and Chara was an unknown that most assumed would be net positive. So now how do we know they'll really be worse?

People are seeing what they want to see and filling in the gaps, based mostly on the belief that the Caps FO is asleep at the wheel and will just allow the bus to crash. I don't think that's a safe assumption.
 
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Langway

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I think it's just sort of the overall trajectory that they're on that some are bound to feel anxious this may be the year they miss the playoffs and time starts to fully undermine their direction. The division hasn't improved a great deal but at least on paper this isn't any better a lineup either. It's one that has even less defensive credentials in presumably turning over PK duties to Orlov and, uh, Fehervary? Who knows. Maybe the goaltenders take a step forward but losing perhaps the two defenders that did the most from a team toughness standpoint seems to undermine that. Maybe the core carries them again but there will increasingly be limitations in how much they can cover up weak links from a roster construction standpoint.

To me it's mostly that if they're going to be average at best defensively then fully embrace possession. Fully embrace some sort of ambitious strength but they're limited with what they've got. No one knows what to expect from Kempny or Fehervary really, even if they're high on the later. While they know what they can get from Jensen it's typically very limited offensively. TVR is a tad better but also doesn't offer much. Overall I think they've got to do more than just show up and skill out because it's increasingly unlikely to be enough. Tactically they're probably going to need to evolve in some areas to maintain competitiveness or else a lack of pace and dynamism will likely upend them.
 
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txpd

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They had trouble holding leads last year as it was and this is a much less tested defensive group overall minus two fairly key defenders in Chara & Dillon. Their PK was ranked 5th last year and they'll be without their 1st and 4th D from that unit. It's a real obstacle IMO. Maybe Fehervary adds more offense and mobility for better possession play, albeit it'll likely take some time for that. As-is their shutdown ability looks weaker than it was and a lot may hinge on just how good Fehervary can be as an all-situations rookie. It's a tough ask. Overall they were already middle of the pack in goals against average and just two playoff teams had a higher GAA. They're not exactly suited as-is to make life any easier for Samsonov & Vanecek. Maybe Alexeyev joins the mix and can be more of what they're missing from Chara/Dillon. Maybe Chara does return. But for the moment it's a weaker group and it already wasn't that solid.

It's not just that they're getting older up front it's that they're becoming a lesser possession team because of it and a further weakened blueline likely makes that situation worse (in outcome if not in underlying metrics). It seems very risky to trust that this group will end up defending well enough and it's not like there's amazing offensive potential to compensate in playing a more run-and-gun style.

Glad to see someone other than me making a point about the value of penalty killing. This would be why I still expect Chara to return. That shores up the PK quite a bit. Is Fehervary really an offensive player? My take on him is that he is a very mobile defense first defenseman.

I thought we decided Dillon sucked and getting rid of him good. No?

My view on the leads was the goaltending which was unreliable. I agree that if the idea is to skate Fehervary, TvR and Kempny in the same lineup with the two baby goalies again, that will be a challenge. Heads will be exploding over the mins that Carlson plays in that case
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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I think it's just sort of the overall trajectory that they're on that some are bound to feel anxious this may be the year they miss the playoffs and time starts to fully undermine their direction. The division hasn't improved a great deal but at least on paper this isn't any better a lineup either. It's one that has even less defensive credentials in presumably turning over PK duties to Orlov and, uh, Fehervary? Who knows. Maybe the goaltenders take a step forward but losing perhaps the two defenders that did the most from a team toughness standpoint seems to undermine that. Maybe the core carries them again but there will increasingly be limitations in how much they can cover up weak links from a roster construction standpoint.

To me it's mostly that if they're going to be average at best defensively then fully embrace possession. Fully embrace some sort of ambitious strength but they're limited with what they've got. No one knows what to expect from Kempny or Fehervary really, even if they're high on the later. While they know what they can get from Jensen it's typically very limited offensively. TVR is a tad better but also doesn't offer much. Overall I think they've got to do more than just show up and skill out because it's increasingly unlikely to be enough. Tactically they're probably going to need to evolve in some areas to maintain competitiveness or else a lack of pace and dynamism will likely upend them.

As of today I would project the pk pairs to be

Fehervary and Carlson
Kempny and TvR.

Adding Chara in Kempny's spot looks a lot better. They have refused to use Orlov on the pk as anything but a back up situation. My impression is that the bubble team suggestors dont put my value in toughness and goaltender defense.

My hope is that at least one of the goalies takes a significant step forward over last season. I think that is liable to be Vanecek, but we will see
 

g00n

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Nov 22, 2007
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As always it will come down to a few things:

-Injuries/Depth
-Team Identity and Cohesiveness
-Playoff Attitude

2/3 of that is mental. The rest is dependent on that 2/3 to be of any value, because as we all know by now paper tigers often fail.
 

StrikingDistance

Buford T. Justice
Mar 19, 2015
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DC
what do YOU guys think we should do if we miss the playoffs? i dont necessarily think we will nor do i necessarily want us to, but if its going to happen it would likely happen this year. this is all hypothetical of course so if you think im way out of my mind thinking we have any shot at missing thats perfectly fine!

Log off this messageboard, burn your password, and never speak of that season again.

OR

Oust some of the regulars here because clearly their internet management of this team needs a change.

OR

 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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Glad to see someone other than me making a point about the value of penalty killing. This would be why I still expect Chara to return. That shores up the PK quite a bit. Is Fehervary really an offensive player? My take on him is that he is a very mobile defense first defenseman.
He was being tasked with becoming more of a dynamic offensive player in Hershey, yes. There have been glimpses, mostly using his speed in transition and leading the rush. I would expect him to be more along the lines of a healthy Kempny than a defensive defenseman initially, mostly because I'm not sure he's got the man strength yet. He's also not super tall/heavy naturally compared to, say, Alexeyev.
I thought we decided Dillon sucked and getting rid of him good. No?
He missed the mark as a solid partner for Carlson going forward and wasn't amazing, no. But he was vastly more accomplished than whoever will be replacing him unless Chara does return.

I don't think it was just goaltending that let them down. They did let in some weak goals at times but also regularly bailed them out of stupid mistakes and glaring breakdowns. I'm of the belief generally that it evens out and, again, as-is I think they're just a lot more likely to give up more than they did. The game has changed but they need to be able to defend the crease/home plate area and relying on Orlov to predominantly be that leading component isn't enough. I do think they will give him at least the opportunity as-is to PK over Kempny. He's ready to take that on and they're going to need that from him on this roster. I have to imagine they want Chara back, despite his weaknesses, given just how much emphasis they place on team toughness. What to do with Kempny remains the most mystifying situation. I would have thought that the other second rounder would have been used to dump him and perhaps add better depth. Maybe that happens yet.
 

txpd

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He was being tasked with becoming more of a dynamic offensive player in Hershey, yes. There have been glimpses, mostly using his speed in transition and leading the rush. I would expect him to be more along the lines of a healthy Kempny than a defensive defenseman initially, mostly because I'm not sure he's got the man strength yet. He's also not super tall/heavy naturally compared to, say, Alexeyev.

He missed the mark as a solid partner for Carlson going forward and wasn't amazing, no. But he was vastly more accomplished than whoever will be replacing him unless Chara does return.

I don't think it was just goaltending that let them down. They did let in some weak goals at times but also regularly bailed them out of stupid mistakes and glaring breakdowns. I'm of the belief generally that it evens out and, again, as-is I think they're just a lot more likely to give up more than they did. The game has changed but they need to be able to defend the crease/home plate area and relying on Orlov to predominantly be that leading component isn't enough. I do think they will give him at least the opportunity as-is to PK over Kempny. He's ready to take that on and they're going to need that from him on this roster. I have to imagine they want Chara back, despite his weaknesses, given just how much emphasis they place on team toughness. What to do with Kempny remains the most mystifying situation. I would have thought that the other second rounder would have been used to dump him and perhaps add better depth. Maybe that happens yet.

What I see with Fehervary is Karl Alzner who at the time was considered an outstanding skater for a defense first defenseman who they encouraged to be more offensive. Alzner was a stud defensively and I would be overjoyed to find that Fehervary is capable of defending and battle to the quality of Alzner. At the same time I have trouble seeing much more than what Jensen and Schmidt bring on the offense.

Orlov is really strong and I think he could be painful around the net but has never used his gifts in the way to date and I think its late to expect him to change. His defending has become legit, but I wonder if he is the LD in the game for the last shift of a one goal lead if they have Chara on the team.

If they try to fly with Fehervary and Kempny as their pk LDs and one of them as a 2nd pair LD, the goaltending is going to need to be better because there will be a hole there. I suppose a deadline acquisition could plug that hole come stretch time.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
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New Bern, NC
As always it will come down to a few things:

-Injuries/Depth
-Team Identity and Cohesiveness
-Playoff Attitude

2/3 of that is mental. The rest is dependent on that 2/3 to be of any value, because as we all know by now paper tigers often fail.

You are being optimistic. You know that right? They are screwed and you know it. Just fess up.
 

twabby

Registered User
Mar 9, 2010
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I am much, much less concerned about team defense than the ability to generate sustained offense and possession, as the past three postseasons have shown us where they have been the least threatening team at 5v5 as measured by xGF/60.

I’m really hoping last season was just an outlier from Backstrom from a playdriving standpoint, but I have my doubts given his hip injury. He was still solid defensively but the creativity and puck-possession were lacking a bit last year. And as much as I defended Kuznetsov from the bloodthirsty hordes on this forum I don’t really think he has it in him to be a dominant 1C like he was in 2018.

Penalty killing is probably the least of my concerns because I think having good penalty killing forwards is probably enough to make Washington a top PK team again. Is Orlov really going to be a step down from Dillon or Chara? Probably not. If the PK implodes it’ll likely be from poor goaltending rather than not being tough enough. They still have Dowd, Hagelin, Eller, Wilson, etc. They’ll be fine.

Their depth players are more than adequate. As was suggested in the analytics thread the C*pitals have a good chance to have one of the best bottom sixes in the league. But it won’t matter much if the top players can’t keep up with other top players in the league.

Mainly for me it’s going to come down to John Carlson. He scores his share of points but he’s not the type of defenseman that takes over a game with any sort of regularity like other top D in the league can especially defensively. If he’s able to tighten up defensively and in transition while not sacrificing much offensively I think that is where they could see the most improvement given the minutes he plays.
 

Langway

In den Wolken
Jul 7, 2006
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What I see with Fehervary is Karl Alzner who at the time was considered an outstanding skater for a defense first defenseman who they encouraged to be more offensive. Alzner was a stud defensively and I would be overjoyed to find that Fehervary is capable of defending and battle to the quality of Alzner. At the same time I have trouble seeing much more than what Jensen and Schmidt bring on the offense.
I don't think that tracks, though he won't be overly dynamic barring significant dedication and confidence in the coming years. The hope would be that his skating and character drives that area further as he becomes a generally strong possession defender. He has more of the tools to be like Schmidt, who does have a ~35 point season to his name, than Alzner or Jensen. PP time accounted for some of those #s but he can be more of a puck transporter than those two more stay-at-home types. The coaching staff tasked him with prioritizing more offense in Hershey and he delivered. He brought up his point totals considerably and was consistently more aggressive. Alzner very early on was more mobile and positional than downright fast and had little inclination to carry the puck or take chances. Whereas there's more confidence in that area from Fehervary, though his skill level is more along the lines of a Kempny than Orlov. Again, I think the hope is that as he becomes increasingly comfortable and confident he'll further add more layers to his game.

Alexeyev with his frame likely has more upside if his stamina, durability and conditioning fully matures. Going forward they'll all-situations D with upside and with enough patience those two should be solutions. They're not ideally dynamic or skilled and shifty enough offensively but they can contribute and be part of the solution from a possession standpoint. Alexeyev also has more of that shutdown/PK frame to grow into but both should eventually be NHL PKers. If Chara doesn't come back I'd be pretty intrigued by also at least giving Alexeyev a shot depending on just how well he shows in camp. I don't know if that's any more risky than going with Kempny ultimately. Suffice to say that group is very up in the air, probably more than any time in recent memory as things stand.
 

Rayquaza64

McMichael>McDavid
May 30, 2019
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The worry I have is with how many question marks we have. Will the young goaltending prove to be stable this year? How will Kempny be and will he be in a top 4 role out of the gate after injury? Fehervary seems to be big in the team's plans this year, where will he fit? Is the forward core going to regress at all or will they continue to perform at a high level besides still aging on? Was Justin Schultz's questionable defensive play a trend of what is to come? How will TvR's playing time work? Its impossible to know the answer to these questions until the season gets underway, so it might be silly to ask these questions at all, but there is some valid concerns to be had about the team we have here. Playoffs are nowhere near a guarantee for this season, I'll say that much.
 

Ridley Simon

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I think it's just sort of the overall trajectory that they're on that some are bound to feel anxious this may be the year they miss the playoffs and time starts to fully undermine their direction. The division hasn't improved a great deal but at least on paper this isn't any better a lineup either. It's one that has even less defensive credentials in presumably turning over PK duties to Orlov and, uh, Fehervary? Who knows. Maybe the goaltenders take a step forward but losing perhaps the two defenders that did the most from a team toughness standpoint seems to undermine that. Maybe the core carries them again but there will increasingly be limitations in how much they can cover up weak links from a roster construction standpoint.

To me it's mostly that if they're going to be average at best defensively then fully embrace possession. Fully embrace some sort of ambitious strength but they're limited with what they've got. No one knows what to expect from Kempny or Fehervary really, even if they're high on the later. While they know what they can get from Jensen it's typically very limited offensively. TVR is a tad better but also doesn't offer much. Overall I think they've got to do more than just show up and skill out because it's increasingly unlikely to be enough. Tactically they're probably going to need to evolve in some areas to maintain competitiveness or else a lack of pace and dynamism will likely upend them.
So are you for adding Chara back, or?

I’m on record as a YES to this question. So it doesn’t seem like a trap
 
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