Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 Still The Champs Edition - Pt. 9

[artilector]

People keep mentioning Niskanen as a trade candidate. Who lead the Caps in ice time last night? I'd be surprised if GMBM trades the guy Rierden trusts the most.

Granted, I'd personally shop him hard. Kempny-Carlson, Orlov-Jensen is a really solid, really cost-efficient top-4. But what I'd do and what GMs actually do are rarely in sync.

Yeah, Niskanen is a tough one, if the Caps are still in win-now mode (as one would assume). He did look a step slow, but still him & Orlov are a pretty good pair... who knows what Orlov-Jensen would look like, they might be a bit too unsteady for each other. Niskanen could also bounce back after getting a long break.

It would be easier to justify trading him if it was clear for who, and what's the overall plan. E.g. if it was for some promising young center, etc.

Something to consider, but yeah, seems doubtful the Caps would go there unless they see some outcome they really like (young D kicking butt in camp/early season, great trade falls in their lap, etc).

 

[artilector]

Meanwhile, the Holtby/Samsonov decision process is shaping up to be interesting, no?

At the very least, having Samsonov should hopefully prevent the Caps from having to write Holtby a blank check, which seems like the only bad scenario.

 

[artilector]

Don't get me wrong, i like the kid. I want him to do well. But again the guy is making 5M. This board seems to rant against guys like Nisky, Holtby, and Oshie for having slumps. But Orlov seems to get the "well he is young" . I hate to tell you the training wheels are now off. I hope he takes this playoffs and carries it over to next season. What i want to see is

1.Less turnovers
2.Attsck the puck/Puck carrier in the d-zone more

Frankly, I think you just have a strong bias against Orlov's style, i.e. you'd rather have an Alzner making "safe plays" regardless of how that affects the team game overall.

Orlov has been one of the Caps' best D men in playoffs for two years now. 5M for a guy that can carry his weight as a top-pair D at ES is a very good deal, much better than what you can realistically expect to get in free agency/trade. By all means, if you have a better & cheaper young D, let them push Orlov out -- it will be a great defense if that's the decision you're facing.

 

[illpucks]

Leaf fans talking about moving Nylander to clear cap space. With Backstrom being cool with him do Caps have a shot?

 

[Raikkonen]

Bura came along nicely lately and he's proved he can score in G7. This is value right there. The only question is money. GMBM will manage that easily. So I bet 100$ Bura is staying. 3rd line winger.

Connolly... Maybe if Caps need to change some personnel to shake things and provoke more hunger Connolly is right candidate. Financially he'd be surely wise to go UFA. So he's not staying.

Releasing Connolly makes all cap space one needs.

Hags? Have to think. Short term low salary should be considered surely.

Malenstyn? Sign me up, if he can jump to NHL level that's your Winnik type of 4LW as far as I understand.

I think GMBM won't bring another high profile winger to compete for TOI with Vrana and Bura. I guess it's ok to see if Vrana gets back to his better version (or maybe it just was Carolina's doing).

8-92-43
13-19-77
62-20-65
Malenstyn-Dowd-Stephenson

Smth like that as a conservative scenario

As for D... you all know my stance on Djoos

Orpik can stay if he wants to be 6-7 with regular scratches. Kempny could be ready for October or could be not so another year for Orpik isnt out of mind

PS: Honestly, that they are out that early could be blessing in disguise. But if next year is more of the same there will be options to change situation more radically. Now there is no sufficient data to analyze.

PPS: f***ing great to sleep at night.

 

[Raikkonen]

Thing with Niskanen... I dont think trading Niskanen magically fixes:

- 1C of the future in Kuzy
- top-6 W of the future in Vrana
- 1D for foreseeable future in Carlson

all of whom played not even close to their level from year ago

Also losing/keeping Connolly doesn't affect that too

These guys need physical and mental rest. And another kick at the can.

 

[Raikkonen]

Alexander Ovechkin is a legend

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Meanwhile, the Holtby/Samsonov decision process is shaping up to be interesting, no?

At the very least, having Samsonov should hopefully prevent the Caps from having to write Holtby a blank check, which seems like the only bad scenario.

I hate to say it but for asset management. Holtby is a must trade.

 

[Kuz]

Leaf fans talking about moving Nylander to clear cap space. With Backstrom being cool with him do Caps have a shot?

Probably not worth it for the Caps. If you take on that contract you would have to make him a top 6 player. He plays either C or RW. Caps are solid down the middle with Backström-Kuznetsov-Eller and on RW you have Wilson-Oshie. Then you pretty much have to trade them Oshie back to make room for him. That would make Caps softer and worse for the next season, but Nylander do have potential and Oshie with his style of play and a recent injuries will probably get worse in the coming years.

For Toronto taking on Oshie's contract they will probably need a big sweetener as he probably only have a couple of more years at the level he is now. As Toronto also is in win now mode I would guess they would want a cost effective RD like Jensen. I would prefer keeping Oshie as he is one of my favorites on the Capitals, but hes the most likely contract to become a bad one. Its long, Oshie is getting up in age and his style is giving him an injury or two every year quite consistently now. So for long term a deal around Oshie for Nylander will probably be good for the Caps, but short term it will probably make the Caps worse the next couple of years. So its not worth it as Caps have a chance as long as Ovi and Backström are still going. Will be interesting to see what their next contracts will be. Backström has been on a steal of a contract and its understandable if he wants to get paid. Hopefully they both take team friendly contracts so that the Caps can get another elite player.

Holtby will need to increase his level by a lot next year to defend what he is paid now. Caps hands might be tied tough if Samsonov shows he isnt ready for the NHL. Samsonov is in that age that he should get a lot of games next year as a backup, but the Caps already have a quite solid backup in Copley. Will be interesting to see what happens with the goalie situation and how well Samsonov performs in camp. If Samsonov outperforms or is close with Holtby Caps should consider a trade as they badly need the cap. If they can get just as good or close to as good goaltending for more than 5 million less its a must even tough Holtby will always be a Caps legend. For a goalie like Holtby Caps can probably get a quite good return.

 

[g00n]

I don't get why people think Hagelin will be cheap. He's on a 4M x 4yr contract and will not take, say, a 75% pay cut to stay with the Capitals if he can get 2-3 times that elsewhere.

Washington Capitals Contracts

Agree with Raik on Bura and Connolly. Caps probably qualify almost all RFAs. Vrana is RFA so I think he gets ~1.5-2.25M to stay instead of Connolly who makes the same and will get more as UFA (I don't know the comparables). I doubt the centers change, and maybe they keep their LWs the same, too. So maybe they pick up 2 RWs or bring guys up. Orpik, Jaskin, and Hagelin are gone, imo. Maybe you trade Stephenson at the draft, maybe you keep him if cheap.

Cap crunch victims could be Eller or Niskanen, but I think they try to avoid that.

They should have about 11.2M in space with existing contracts. Letting Orpik and Hagelin and Jaskin walk:

Bura 4.25M
Vrana 2.25M
Stephenson 750K
Djoos 725K

Maybe the first 2 are wishful thinking but that's 8M and you need 2 RWs if you dump Connolly and Jaskin. 3.2M to spend on that assuming 83M cap. Maybe Barber gets a new deal and comes up, in which case his previous 650K NHL value probably goes up to 750K, leaving a bit under 2.5M for a 3-4RW.

Maybe you're stuck with Connolly if he'll sign for that much which I doubt (similar stats to Vrana but UFA instead of RFA). Or maybe you do have to trade one of Niskanen or Eller to upgrade.

Nyquist is the closest UFA FA to Connolly in production but he's much more expensive (4.75 cap hit and due for a raise). No way they pay 5M+ for him if they can somehow keep Connolly for less.

My guess is they hold the usual "open competition" at camp but have their eye on Barber, and try another reclamation project similar to Connolly or Jaskin for that last RW position. Maybe they try to bring back Chiasson, who currently makes 650K and would probably sign a UFA deal for less than 2.5M, hopefully WELL south of that since he had a career year and is 28. D-man fill ins will be call-ups, so expect a lot of d-men drafted, maybe RW.

 

[895]

I don't get why people think Hagelin will be cheap. He's on a 4M x 4yr contract and will not take, say, a 75% pay cut to stay with the Capitals if he can get 2-3 times that elsewhere.

Washington Capitals Contracts

Agree with Raik on Bura and Connolly. Caps probably qualify almost all RFAs. Vrana is RFA so I think he gets ~1.5-2.25M to stay instead of Connolly who makes the same and will get more as UFA (I don't know the comparables). I doubt the centers change, and maybe they keep their LWs the same, too. So maybe they pick up 2 RWs or bring guys up. Orpik, Jaskin, and Hagelin are gone, imo. Maybe you trade Stephenson at the draft, maybe you keep him if cheap.

Cap crunch victims could be Eller or Niskanen, but I think they try to avoid that.

They should have about 11.2M in space with existing contracts. Letting Orpik and Hagelin and Jaskin walk:

Bura 4.25M
Vrana 2.25M
Stephenson 750K
Djoos 725K

Maybe the first 2 are wishful thinking but that's 8M and you need 2 RWs if you dump Connolly and Jaskin. 3.2M to spend on that assuming 83M cap. Maybe Barber gets a new deal and comes up, in which case his previous 650K NHL value probably goes up to 750K, leaving a bit under 2.5M for a 3-4RW.

Maybe you're stuck with Connolly if he'll sign for that much which I doubt (similar stats to Vrana but UFA instead of RFA). Or maybe you do have to trade one of Niskanen or Eller to upgrade.

Nyquist is the closest UFA FA to Connolly in production but he's much more expensive (4.75 cap hit and due for a raise). No way they pay 5M+ for him if they can somehow keep Connolly for less.

My guess is they hold the usual "open competition" at camp but have their eye on Barber, and try another reclamation project similar to Connolly or Jaskin for that last RW position. Maybe they try to bring back Chiasson, who currently makes 650K and would probably sign a UFA deal for less than 2.5M, hopefully WELL south of that since he had a career year and is 28. D-man fill ins will be call-ups, so expect a lot of d-men drafted, maybe RW.

Are you mixing up Bura and Vrana? I don't see how Vrana will make less. He's been a top six winger all year.

And I don't think your calculations have included the 1.2m in cap penalty have they?

 

[Kuz]

Bura 4.25M
Vrana 2.25M
Stephenson 750K
Djoos 725K

Why would you give Bura after his season a raise and only give Vrana 2,25? Both are RFAs. I also dont think Hagelin can demand close to 4 millions anymore. After what he did for the Pens and the Kings he would be a risky player to pay 4 mill for a team. He worked well for the Caps, but you would have to be pretty certain he will work on a team to give him 4 millions.

 

[895]

@calicapsfan

Regarding the coaching, TR may end up not having been a good choice but IMO it's way too soon to make that call. For this season he basically delivered the same result as Trotz did in his first seasons... a top seed and early playoff exit.

Barry squandered three younger, at least as stacked Caps teams (not to mention 14 years of Preds rosters) before finally getting past R2. Reirden's squad had the benefit of experience winning but also was older, had more significant injuries, and probably was struggling with fatigue after playing so much hockey over the past 19 months.

The test of Todd will be next year. Does he develop as a coach? Does he learn from his mistakes? We probably will never know why he made the decisions he did in this series, but can he evaluate those accurately and change where it's needed?

Time will tell, but IMO it's just unreasonable to draw meaningful conclusions from the sample size available, and doing so is more about personal bias than the information currently on offer.

What you are saying is 100% true but...

We are on a strict timeline here. Need to win as many cups for Ovechkin as possible. Giving a rookie head coach a year to learn is fine if we're rebuilding.

By the way, did you manage to find those Trotz quotes about disrespect?

 

[895]

re: Copley contract

Still doesn't make sense to me. Some people keep saying it's 3 years because of the expansion draft, but as we saw with the Parker Milner extension, it's trivially easy to sign a random depth goalie to a contract to expose for the draft. Therefore the Copley contract is just because the org likes him and think he's worth it.

However, with Samsonov playing well in the AHL and Holtby pretty much losing us this game, I want Samsonov as the backup next year. The future of Caps goaltending is decided next year. So I think Copley will get moved.

 

[Lindemann]

If I’m understanding correctly, don’t they highly regard Samasnov to be the best that we have?

Don’t they love him?

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I don't get why people think Hagelin will be cheap. He's on a 4M x 4yr contract and will not take, say, a 75% pay cut to stay with the Capitals if he can get 2-3 times that elsewhere.

Washington Capitals Contracts

Agree with Raik on Bura and Connolly. Caps probably qualify almost all RFAs. Vrana is RFA so I think he gets ~1.5-2.25M to stay instead of Connolly who makes the same and will get more as UFA (I don't know the comparables). I doubt the centers change, and maybe they keep their LWs the same, too. So maybe they pick up 2 RWs or bring guys up. Orpik, Jaskin, and Hagelin are gone, imo. Maybe you trade Stephenson at the draft, maybe you keep him if cheap.

Cap crunch victims could be Eller or Niskanen, but I think they try to avoid that.

They should have about 11.2M in space with existing contracts. Letting Orpik and Hagelin and Jaskin walk:

Bura 4.25M
Vrana 2.25M
Stephenson 750K
Djoos 725K

Maybe the first 2 are wishful thinking but that's 8M and you need 2 RWs if you dump Connolly and Jaskin. 3.2M to spend on that assuming 83M cap. Maybe Barber gets a new deal and comes up, in which case his previous 650K NHL value probably goes up to 750K, leaving a bit under 2.5M for a 3-4RW.

Maybe you're stuck with Connolly if he'll sign for that much which I doubt (similar stats to Vrana but UFA instead of RFA). Or maybe you do have to trade one of Niskanen or Eller to upgrade.

Nyquist is the closest UFA FA to Connolly in production but he's much more expensive (4.75 cap hit and due for a raise). No way they pay 5M+ for him if they can somehow keep Connolly for less.

My guess is they hold the usual "open competition" at camp but have their eye on Barber, and try another reclamation project similar to Connolly or Jaskin for that last RW position. Maybe they try to bring back Chiasson, who currently makes 650K and would probably sign a UFA deal for less than 2.5M, hopefully WELL south of that since he had a career year and is 28. D-man fill ins will be call-ups, so expect a lot of d-men drafted, maybe RW.

Hagelin had a horrendous year outside his last few months here, I would be shocked if someone gave him a contract comparable to the AAV he was on previously. With Hagelin it seems very clear that he's the type of player that only works well on a team that is searching for final pieces, if you put him on a middle to low tier team he is invisible.

So while I think it's unlikely he resigns, I think that given his numbers, and given that his primary asset is speed and that regresses tremendously over time, I do not think he will make 2-3 times what he's making on his retained salary.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

The Copley contract is like a class assigned book from an obscure 18th century Austrian philosopher. I'm quite sure nothing about it makes sense, and I'm pretty sure every kid in class acting like they "got it" are lying or don't know what they're talking about.


Either it's the result of a GMBM trade botch that never came to light or there is a missing piece to the entire situation. Signing him to a contract that's above league minimum 2 years out because "we need a body for the expansion draft" makes zero sense as many posters have pointed out.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Just lock up Vrana now.


7 years for 5AAV and be done with it, slightly overpay in the immediate, get a very cap friendly deal on the back end.

 

[hb12xchamps]

The Copley contract is like a class assigned book from an obscure 18th century Austrian philosopher. I'm quite sure nothing about it makes sense, and I'm pretty sure every kid in class acting like they "got it" are lying or don't know what they're talking about.


Either it's the result of a GMBM trade botch that never came to light or there is a missing piece to the entire situation. Signing him to a contract that's above league minimum 2 years out because "we need a body for the expansion draft" makes zero sense as many posters have pointed out.

I think we’re looking at it in too general of a perspective. At the time of Copley’s extension he was playing very very well. Meanwhile the heir to the net in Hershey (Samsonov) was looking like complete dogshit and the initial thought was that he’d probably need at least another full season until he makes any type of impact at the AHL level.

Fast forward to today and those perspectives have changed completely. Copley played okay down the stretch but never as great as he was the beginning of the season. Meanwhile Samsonov went full on god mode in Hershey and has proven he’s comfortable in NA and should probably get some games next season.

The contract for Copley is peanuts anyway. If Samsonov or even Vanecek (if he’s still in the organization next year) outplays him in TC this offseason they can place Copley on waivers and some team probably takes a flyer on him. Or they could even try to move him via trade. This year especially has shown that teams can get desperate for goaltenders if their organization has a few injuries or bad play from their guys (Flyers, Vancouver immediately come to mind)

 

[g00n]

Why would you give Bura after his season a raise and only give Vrana 2,25? Both are RFAs. I also dont think Hagelin can demand close to 4 millions anymore. After what he did for the Pens and the Kings he would be a risky player to pay 4 mill for a team. He worked well for the Caps, but you would have to be pretty certain he will work on a team to give him 4 millions.

Are you mixing up Bura and Vrana? I don't see how Vrana will make less. He's been a top six winger all year.

And I don't think your calculations have included the 1.2m in cap penalty have they?

I'm going by the spotrac numbers in the link. If there's penalty I don't see it. I don't track the cap.

Bura is already at 3M and Vrana is only $863K. How big a raise each gets depends on their agents and whether they go to arbitration. Again, haven't looked at comparables but Bura made a similar jump from under a mil to 2-3mil. We may view Vrana more positively in this room but Bura still has 5 years of stats and 145 points while Vrana is working from 3yrs and 80 pts. If both signed here I would be shocked if Vrana made more per year unless there's some tomfoolery with the term.

Maybe Vrana gets 3M like Bura did. Not much difference other than probably having to move Niskanen or going cheap at 4RW.

Point being, not much change to the starting squad.

 

[kicksavedave]

Leaf fans talking about moving Nylander to clear cap space. With Backstrom being cool with him do Caps have a shot?

Didn't want the dad, don't want the son!

Want players who compete in the playoffs. Nylanders don't!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Just lock up Vrana now.


7 years for 5AAV and be done with it, slightly overpay in the immediate, get a very cap friendly deal on the back end.

I doubt he takes that AAV.

 

[895]

I'm going by the spotrac numbers in the link. If there's penalty I don't see it. I don't track the cap.

Bura is already at 3M and Vrana is only $863K. How big a raise each gets depends on their agents and whether they go to arbitration. Again, haven't looked at comparables but Bura made a similar jump from under a mil to 2-3mil. We may view Vrana more positively in this room but Bura still has 5 years of stats and 145 points while Vrana is working from 3yrs and 80 pts. If both signed here I would be shocked if Vrana made more per year unless there's some tomfoolery with the term.

Maybe Vrana gets 3M like Bura did. Not much difference other than probably having to move Niskanen or going cheap at 4RW.

Point being, not much change to the starting squad.

I am willing to bet any amount of money, lands, titles, cows, wives that Vrana's AAV will be higher than Bura's. If you think Bura's AAV will be higher, I don't think you've been paying attention to post ELC contracts around the league.

As for the penalty, Capfriendly is the best for these things. Spotrac only good for NFL.

Washington Capitals - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Under 2019-20 carryover bonuses: 1,150,000

 

[g00n]

I am willing to bet any amount of money, lands, titles, cows, wives that Vrana's AAV will be higher than Bura's. If you think Bura's AAV will be higher, I don't think you've been paying attention to post ELC contracts around the league.

As for the penalty, Capfriendly is the best for these things. Spotrac only good for NFL.

Washington Capitals - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Under 2019-20 carryover bonuses: 1,150,000

You're right, I don't have time or desire to pay attention to every dollar in the league before throwing out my useless speculation.

Why don't you show me some examples of guys making 800K on their ELC who then jump to the amount you believe Vrana will get, after one 20 goal season.

 

[Calicaps]

@calicapsfan



What you are saying is 100% true but...

We are on a strict timeline here. Need to win as many cups for Ovechkin as possible. Giving a rookie head coach a year to learn is fine if we're rebuilding.

By the way, did you manage to find those Trotz quotes about disrespect?

Yes, a short timeline. And BT wasted a lot more of it than Reirden has. That Barry finally broke through in no way means he'd have won again this year or ever.

I didn't bother to look as I don't feel compelled to prove anything to you. But basically he was insulted that they let the prospect of his firing hang out there during the season and that they didn't offer him a long-term extension. Recall that he got 14 years or whatever in Nashville (and will have a long leash on the Island too). He didn't like the high expectations BMAC put on him. It wasn't the money.

But also, think of the money this way... What if it was a player? People would absolutely LOL at a player saying, "Well the market's hanged since I agreed to my contract, and so and so is getting more than me. So I shouldn't have to honor it. I want to renegotiate now." Everyone would tell that guy to play it out and get his payday on the next one. But somehow folks think it's different in this case. Ridiculous.