Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 Still The Champs Edition - Pt. 9

[Empty Goal Net]

Good stuff to consider re. next year's lineup.

At least three major uncertainties need to be factored in:
- Will Kempny recover sufficiently from his torn hammy to perform at his former level (in particular his skating movement, acceleration and speed)?
- Will Oshie return to form after his collarbone surgery?
- Will Kuzy return to his pre-concussion (Tanev & Hamilton) form?

I'm less concerned about Oshie/collarbone than I am the other two. But if any of the above do not return to form, the Caps' holes to fill / adjustments to make become more of a challenge.

 

[illpucks]

Holtby will need to increase his level by a lot next year to defend what he is paid now. Caps hands might be tied tough if Samsonov shows he isnt ready for the NHL. Samsonov is in that age that he should get a lot of games next year as a backup, but the Caps already have a quite solid backup in Copley. Will be interesting to see what happens with the goalie situation and how well Samsonov performs in camp. If Samsonov outperforms or is close with Holtby Caps should consider a trade as they badly need the cap. If they can get just as good or close to as good goaltending for more than 5 million less its a must even tough Holtby will always be a Caps legend. For a goalie like Holtby Caps can probably get a quite good return.

Trade Holtby when Samsonov hasn't even played 1 NHL game? How could anyone support that? And Copley is very very bad goalie compared to Grubauer. Caps won last season because of their 1A 1B situation. If Holtby wasn't benched in game 1 and game 2 he wouldn't have incentive to play at that level. Grubauer pushed him to raise his game. Unfortunately when he sucks now, the backup is never considered to start a game because the backup simply is pretty bad.

If Samsonov can perform at NHL level like Grubauer it will force Holtby to raise his game.

 

[shtorm2005]

Imo, I think strategy wins championships, not particular players. When things work on ice, possession, high danger chances, every thing is clicking on the ice, that motivates much more than coach's locker room speech. Even bottom lines can turn into stars players when they become confident about their play that works. I doubt this team needs much trades this summer, but the coach has to think about a different approach and a plan for next year. I have a feeling last year he experimented a lot. I hope next year Reirden will be much sure about what to do.

 

[kicksavedave]

Trade Holtby when Samsonov hasn't even played 1 NHL game? How could anyone support that? And Copley is very very bad goalie compared to Grubauer. Caps won last season because of their 1A 1B situation. If Holtby wasn't benched in game 1 and game 2 he wouldn't have incentive to play at that level. Grubauer pushed him to raise his game. Unfortunately when he sucks now, the backup is never considered to start a game because the backup simply is pretty bad.

If Samsonov can perform at NHL level like Grubauer it will force Holtby to raise his game.

This is fine, but when Cops was signed, Sam's was no where near showing to be ready yet. That he stepped up and may be ready to challenge for a BU spot is a good thing, but lets not pretend Copley's contract is a bad one or will be hard to move if we wanted to. And lets not pretend Copley is a bad goalie. He was a solid BU for us this year, in his first playing time ever. Comparing him to Grubs is disingenuous, Grubs was a starter stuck behind a better starter who we could not keep due to him deserving a starter's salary from someone else. Cops is a backup at a backup salary that we can keep until we have a better option and then he will be easy to move out.

The Caps have 27 other issues that need solving before Cops approaches being an issue.

 

[895]

You're right, I don't have time or desire to pay attention to every dollar in the league before throwing out my useless speculation.

Why don't you show me some examples of guys making 800K on their ELC who then jump to the amount you believe Vrana will get, after one 20 goal season.

Nick Schmaltz, after one 20 goal season (not even in the contract year, he was injured this year)

Signs for 7x5.85m

Alex Tuch, coming off 15g,37p season signs a 7x4.75m

Elias Lindholm, coming off 16g,44p signs 6x4.85m


I think your guess of 1.5m-2.25m is about 50% of what it will actually take.

 

[895]

But also, think of the money this way... What if it was a player? People would absolutely LOL at a player saying, "Well the market's hanged since I agreed to my contract, and so and so is getting more than me. So I shouldn't have to honor it. I want to renegotiate now." Everyone would tell that guy to play it out and get his payday on the next one. But somehow folks think it's different in this case. Ridiculous.

Not really a good analogy. Player contracts are governed by the CBA. Coaching contracts are basically like any other contract jobs in the real world.

Coach contracts have always been fluid. Just as you can go into your job tomorrow and ask for a raise, Trotz can too. The Caps could have held him to the contract and not let him go but obviously having a team coached by a guy who's there against his will is a disaster.

 

[kicksavedave]

Imo, I think strategy wins championships, not particular players. When things work on ice, possession, high danger chances, every thing is clicking on the ice, that motivates much more than coach's locker room speech. Even bottom lines can turn into stars players when they become confident about their play that works. I doubt this team needs much trades this summer, but the coach has to think about a different approach and a plan for next year. I have a feeling last year he experimented a lot. I hope next year
Reirden
will be much sure about what to do.

I think winning a championship takes a lot of things, having the right strategy is only part of it, but obviously a big part. It takes talent, sure, but the right kind of talent, that steps up in the tough times, not wilts from the pressure. It takes grit, toughness, to physically and mentally withstand the pressure of the playoffs. It takes good coaching, sure, that can't be overlooked but despite this board's rush to judgement on TR, the jury is still out on that. The jury was unanimous about BT in April of last year and he changed their minds, so TR could still do the same.

Finally, it takes luck, and lots of it. That's not to say it takes only luck, but it does take luck. Not just puck luck, lucky bounces, lucky calls by the refs. It takes luck in the form of good health, good timing. Last year Oshie sucked for a huge stretch, but he got healthy and hot for the playoffs. This year Oshie was solid for much of the year, but got hurt in the playoffs. Last year Kuzy was healthy and got hotter in the playoffs, this year he was bad all year and started to heat up in the last few weeks but then got popped again and sucked in the playoffs. Thats the kind of luck I mean. Last year all our defense was healthy for all our playoff games. This year we lost two starters for the playoffs. That's bad luck. It also takes luck in the form of matchups. I don't think we matched up well vs Carolina with their speed, maybe the fastest team in the EC playoffs overall. If we got the Pens, or even the Isles, I think we win that series. But with all our injuries, I don't think we're advancing that far either way.

 

[um]

I wonder if Barber is ready for an NHL shot after his great year this year... either way we'll need some guys to step up with 1 or 2 of Hagelin/Burakovsky/Connolly probably leaving.

I'm all for the 2017-2018 strategy of using young/new guys again.

 

[kicksavedave]

Not really a good analogy. Player contracts are governed by the CBA. Coaching contracts are basically like any other contract jobs in the real world.

Coach contracts have always been fluid. Just as you can go into your job tomorrow and ask for a raise, Trotz can too. The Caps could have held him to the contract and not let him go but obviously having a team coached by a guy who's there against his will is a disaster.

Specifically, Caps could NOT have held him to stay and coach in DC, they cannot prevent him from resigning. All they could have done, in spite, is stop him from signing with another team until his contract expires. They didn't do that, they let him out of his obligation so he could go sign with a division rival.

 

[Calicaps]

Not really a good analogy. Player contracts are governed by the CBA. Coaching contracts are basically like any other contract jobs in the real world.

Coach contracts have always been fluid. Just as you can go into your job tomorrow and ask for a raise, Trotz can too. The Caps could have held him to the contract and not let him go but obviously having a team coached by a guy who's there against his will is a disaster.

Fine. But the main point still is that he felt mistreated and was leaving. He fully expected to just reach the end of his deal. But when they won, the situation was complicated for both sides. And from what I saw, Barry took the opportunity to embarrass GMBM publicly by asking for 5 years, and a ton of money guaranteed knowing they wouldn't do it.

Specifically, Caps could NOT have held him to stay and coach in DC, they cannot prevent him from resigning. All they could have done, in spite, is stop him from signing with another team until his contract expires. They didn't do that, they let him out of his obligation so he could go sign with a division rival.

That was too decent of them IMO.

 

[895]

Fine. But the main point still is that he felt mistreated and was leaving. He fully expected to just reach the end of his deal. But when they won, the situation was complicated for both sides. And from what I saw, Barry took the opportunity to embarrass GMBM publicly by asking for 5 years, and a ton of money guaranteed knowing they wouldn't do it.


That was too decent of them IMO.

I understand your point, I just don't see the evidence to support it. Yes, he felt mistreated but because we wouldn't pay him what he thought was worth, not for other factors. If we did, I think he would have stayed.

And how did he embarrass GMBM publicly? Is it his fault if reporters leak his contract demands? And again, it was his first and only offer, the Caps never counter-offered with something in between, just told him to accept the automatic extension (which is clearly below market value).

I 100% would have done the same thing as Trotz.

 

[kicksavedave]

And how did he embarrass GMBM publicly? Is it his fault if reporters leak his contract demands? And again, it was his first and only offer, the Caps never counter-offered with something in between, just told him to accept the automatic extension (which is clearly below market value).

Do we know this for a fact? I have been begging for details on the entire negotiation between BT and the Caps and its sparse. No one really knows what leaks are true. I got the sense he asked for 5x5 and the Caps offered something in between the automatic extension+raise and his demands, but they didn't meet in the middle. I don't know if this is fact what happened because again, the reporting on it is minimal.

 

[RandyHolt]

I did find it really odd that we extended Dowd in the playoffs but then deemed him not worthy of playing in OT. Which is it?

I believe Jaskin was here as a long term suspension replacement for it Willy got suspended for a few months. A big body RW... he was simply backup.

 

[RandyHolt]

I wonder if Barber is ready for an NHL shot after his great year this year... either way we'll need some guys to step up with 1 or 2 of Hagelin/Burakovsky/Connolly probably leaving.

I'm all for the 2017-2018 strategy of using young/new guys again.

Me too, which in a nutshell means, bye bye, Hitman Hagelin. He served us well taking out Hedman and doing his PK thing, but we can save a mil and keep the pipe clean by letting him go home to Shitsburgh.

 

[um]

I did find it really odd that we extended Dowd in the playoffs but then deemed him not worthy of playing in OT. Which is it?

I believe Jaskin was here as a long term suspension replacement for it Willy got suspended for a few months. A big body RW... he was simply backup.

we extended him for only 750K though, would he even count against the Cap if we sent him down?

 

[illpucks]

I wonder if Barber is ready for an NHL shot after his great year this year... either way we'll need some guys to step up with 1 or 2 of Hagelin/Burakovsky/Connolly probably leaving.

I'm all for the 2017-2018 strategy of using young/new guys again.

Pavel?

 

[um]

Pavel?

Riley

 

[895]

Do we know this for a fact? I have been begging for details on the entire negotiation between BT and the Caps and its sparse. No one really knows what leaks are true. I got the sense he asked for 5x5 and the Caps offered something in between the automatic extension+raise and his demands, but they didn't meet in the middle. I don't know if this is fact what happened because again, the reporting on it is minimal.

Not for a fact but reading between the lines of what Leonsis said, that's what I think happened.

“The only thing I’ve been disappointed in is the language that’s used around it. I read something that said we had a contract dispute, and you can’t have a dispute if you have a contract. I understand that Barry did what was in his best interest and his family’s best interest and I don’t begrudge that. But we signed Barry as our coach [in 2014], and his agent asked for, ‘What happens if we win the Stanley Cup?’ And we said, ‘What would you like?’ And he said, ‘An extension of three years.’ We said, ‘How about two years?’ and they said, ‘OK.’ And then the agent said, ‘What would you like as a salary increase?’ and we said, ‘What would you like?’ And we negotiated and we came to an agreement and he signed the contract. Then, we won the Stanley Cup, and we said, ‘Congratulations. You’ve earned your extension and your raise.’
“So, there was no dispute to me. I live up to my contracts, and he resigned and went to the Islanders. We could have stopped that, but we just won a Stanley Cup together and it was like, ‘I’m going to do nothing and say nothing that adds any negative karma or drama to this.’ I’m very, very grateful to Barry. We won our first Stanley Cup and I hope he thrives and wins every game except when he plays us. But we have change in the locker room now. We have a new coach, a new voice.”​

So to me, no one did anything wrong. Trotz was being criminally underpaid and left for more money. Leonsis had a contract signed and didn't feel like like he should pay more and he felt he had a good coach in the wings. I'm sure if Reirden isn't here, Leonsis gives Trotz what he wants.

But there's a difference between doing nothing wrong and doing what it takes to win. My opinion is that Leonsis didn't do anything wrong but for the sake of winning, he should have just paid Trotz.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Fine. But the main point still is that he felt mistreated and was leaving. He fully expected to just reach the end of his deal. But when they won, the situation was complicated for both sides. And from what I saw, Barry took the opportunity to embarrass GMBM publicly by asking for 5 years, and a ton of money guaranteed knowing they wouldn't do it.

That was too decent of them IMO.

And that move by the org ... regardless of the extent to which Trotz wanted to go and/or BMac did not want to meet his salary ask ... is a step toward rebuilding its rep and generating some league-wide goodwill. Remember the stories of GMGM's "soiled" relationships with agents? If the Caps' front office and organization as a whole could graciously cut its ties with HCBT, then others
(players/agents/coaches/whoever) may be more inclined to do business with them.

 

[895]

And that move by the org ... regardless of the extent to which Trotz wanted to go and/or BMac did not want to meet his salary ask ... is a step toward rebuilding its rep and generating some league-wide goodwill. Remember the stories of GMGM's "soiled" relationships with agents? If the Caps' front office and organization as a whole could graciously cut its ties with HCBT, then others
(players/agents/coaches/whoever) may be more inclined to do business with them.

I don't think the relationship is that good. Trotz wasn't in any tribute videos and wasn't at any of the celebrations right? He got Stalin'd basically.

And if Ted says "I live up to my contracts" well then the implication is that some others don't.

 

[RandyHolt]

we extended him for only 750K though, would he even count against the Cap if we sent him down?

Good point. But we are getting mixed messages from the team at the most important time of the year. It sure seems like Brian loves him some Jensen and Dowd.

I think the most glaring mistake Todd made was rolling 3 lines in OT.

 

[kicksavedave]

Not for a fact but reading between the lines of what Leonsis said, that's what I think happened.



So to me, no one did anything wrong. Trotz was being criminally underpaid and left for more money. Leonsis had a contract signed and didn't feel like like he should pay more and he felt he had a good coach in the wings. I'm sure if Reirden isn't here, Leonsis gives Trotz what he wants.

But there's a difference between doing nothing wrong and doing what it takes to win. My opinion is that Leonsis didn't do anything wrong but for the sake of winning, he should have just paid Trotz.

I hadn't read those quotes by Ted, but it's funny, he goes into great detail on the contract negotiations in 2014, but says virtually nothing about 2018. Maybe by not saying anything, there was no negotiations, but its widely discussed in here that there were and we only really know the end result, not the meat of the talks. One thing is clear, Barry got a deal he wanted then didn't honor it. He resigned. He wasn't pushed out or fired as some posters here (not you per se) have claimed.

What I'm still unclear on and Ted's bit doesn't clear up, is how much negotiation on a new deal was there really last summer? I mean, its possible the Caps said "you're under contract, deal with it", just played hardball, but its also possible BT said here's what I want and the Caps and he went back and forth a bit and just didn't agree. We don't know that. I still wanna know.

Bottom line, BT quit on the Caps, not vice versa. BT was under the contract that he negotiated and he didn't honor it, period! But the Caps let him off the hook for welching on his contract.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

I doubt he takes that AAV.

How much do you think Vrana is worth? Really can't see him getting that much larger of a deal than Wilson. $5-6 is over seven is pretty generous to me considering last season he had 20 less points and if you look at the body of work there is a lot more of a question mark.

 

[um]

Good point. But we are getting mixed messages from the team at the most important time of the year. It sure seems like Brian loves him some Jensen and Dowd.

I think the most glaring mistake Todd made was rolling 3 lines in OT.

Agreed, Ovechkin looked tired in the 3rd, in OT he was officially out of energy.

 

[895]

If 2 years, I can see a 2x3.5m for Vrana

For a long term deal, AAV will be above 4.5m for sure.