Canadian Division (Canada Cup) Part XI

[PumpkinBomb]

I know a lot of people have said a lot of stupid things in this thread(s), but just remember, you all know as much as the so called "best" hockey "Journalists"

Sportsnet NHL Insider predictions for 2020-21 season

Stanley Cup predictions for 2020-21 NHL season

NHL predictions 2021: Final standings, awards, playoff projections, Stanley Cup pick

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/attachments/screen-shot-2021-05-04-at-1-16-23-pm-png.429700/

Elliotte Friedman included (his predictions are as stupid as the rest)

All i can say is: Yikes

Not surprisingly, the vegas sports books were the best predictors of standings:
2021 NHL Season Betting Preview - Stanley Cup and Division Futures Odds

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Because of his team mate who has played over 80 % on his own line this year has 71 points it is evidence that it’s not all McDavid.

It's 57% McDavid, that's an insane statistic. How many of Draistil's points are directly because of McDavid? That isn't a slight to either player, but the numbers don't lie. No other team relies on one player like the Oilers do.

 

[Dache]

It's 57% McDavid, that's an insane statistic. How many of Draistil's points are directly because of McDavid? That isn't a slight to either player, but the numbers don't lie. No other team relies on one player like the Oilers do.

To be fair, no other team has a player like McDavid to rely on.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It's 57% McDavid, that's an insane statistic. How many of Draistil's points are directly because of McDavid? That isn't a slight to either player, but the numbers don't lie. No other team relies on one player like the Oilers do.

How many of McDavids points are directly because of draisaitl

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

To be fair, no other team has a player like McDavid to rely on.

Very true, i'm not trying to run down McDavid. Just it's weird when one player accounts for getting points on 57% of all goals. I don't know that it makes the Oilers a good or bad team but it does make them very unbalanced. The other lines should be chipping in more.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

McDavid has been in on almost 57% of ALL goals the Oilers have scored. The fact the ice is tilted every time McDavid is on the ice means yes, it is mostly McDavid.

Meh its not as much an indictment on the rest of the team as that number seems imo. Let’s look at the other top scorers in the league and their contributions

Mack is 37%
Manner is 37%
Marchand is 42%
Kane is 42%
Stone is 34%
Huberdeau is 33%

McDavid has 91 points and the rest have 65 -59.Considering mcdavid has ~30% more points than these players its not that crazy that his contribution is 15-20% higher. Not only that but mcdavid stays out for the entire power play so of course he’s part of a lot of those goals

If we look at 5on5 here is involvement % of each of these players and goals scored they weren’t involved in (note these may not be the teams primary 5on5 point producers):

Player	goal involvement 5on5	5on5 goals scored without
Mcdavid	47%	55
Marner	35%	78
Marchand	36%	62
Stone	28%	88
Mack	30%	80
Kane	37%	57
Hub	26%	82

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*oil playing 1-2 games less than these teams

So yes mcdavid is a big part of his team and the oilers depth scoring isn’t as good as the best teams in the league but its in the range of teams like Boston.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Yes, I'd rather get them over Toronto. McDavid & Draisaitl are obviously deadly and we could be swept if they play their best, but I think we have a better chance against Edmonton instead of the Leafs.

I think you do also. Edmonton has the best player, no question. Toronto has much better depth though. Montreal seems pretty good at shutting down McDavid. Plus a second round matchup with Leafs and Canadians would be even better then a first round match-up.

 

[nobody]

Generally, someone who has high expectations for a team. Can you go back and answer my question now?

Age at start of 2021-22 season if it were to start in Nov:

Amirov 20
Robertson 20
Sandin 21
Lilly 22
Matthews 24
Marner 24
Nylander 25
Mikheyev 26
Rielly 27
Kerfoot 27
Hyman 29
Campbell 29
Tavares 30
Brodie 31
Muzzin 32

These guys with the exception of Amirov should all be what makes up the 2021-22 Leafs roster. You don't blow up a f***ing team who's core players are an average of 25-26 and whose superstars are still 24, 24 and 25. While you have stud young D prospects coming up in Sandin, Lilly and potentially Dermott (if he doesn't go in the expansion draft) all under the age of 24.

Would it suck to not go deep this year? No f***ing shit. Every contender would be disappointed to not win the cup. And yes, contrary to HF beliefs, the Leafs are legitimate contenders and I know most people will have their underwear in a knot over this fact but these same idiot people will come talking shit if the Leafs get knocked out early.

Your hypothetical question about making big moves to shake up the team makes no sense. This team has played their hearts out this year and has been one of the most consistent Leafs teams that I've ever witnessed and their effort level and compete has been excellent. The special teams might need some tweaking and we could see some assistant coaches swapped but Keefe, Dubas and Co. have done an excellent job with this club and they won't be making any knee-jerk reactions even if they got swept in the first round.

With Matthews/ Marner/ JT/ Willy/ Sandin/ Lilly/ Amirov/ Robertson, this team has maybe an 8-10 year window where they can be very competitive. Add on the fact that they have majority of their cap coming off the books in the next 4-5 years, we have the flexibility to bring home a Connor McDavid should he hit UFA.

 

[Mr Positive]

How does that take away from the true fact that McDavid is the Oilers offense. For consideration players 3 and 4 in the point race account for only 37% of their teams total. McDavid's number is a huge outlier. It's impressive but half of the teams goals are happening when McDavid gets a point. That should be a concern to any team.

On any team, McDavid would have a huge portion of the offense. There is only one puck on the ice, so of course the team will funnel pucks towards him. What makes it more striking is that McDavid isn't just an elite finisher. He's the best in the league at carrying the puck, and zone entries. He seems better starting off in the D zone than in the offensive zone, because it gives him so much more ice to skate the puck with. That's not even a joke. There is no team that would spread around possession just for "balance". No, just get the puck to McDavid, stupid

And we have seen this team with McDavid and Draisaitl going full steam, but the team has a horrible regular season, and can even draft 4th overall. Hockey isn't not a sport where one or two players can give you success. The team outside these two is very, very good now. The stats don't show it because so much of the team's focus is rightly put onto McDavid and Draisaitl. But, like a lot of teams that perform surprisingly well when a top star has to miss a few games, the Oilers would also adjust to McDavid missing time. We would not be as good, that's guaranteed, and it wouldn't be a cup threat, but they would be a feisty squad that would surprise a lot of people

 

[Canadiens Ghost]

So where are all the people who swore the Oilers would be last or second last in the division? Your crow is ready and waiting for consumption!

Most here were predicting Habs and Sens to be bottom two...

 

[Papi 4 Hart]

Most here were predicting Habs and Sens to be bottom two...

I think everyone had Habs top 2-4. Especially after off season adds.

 

[The90]

Most here were predicting Habs and Sens to be bottom two...

Huh? Most were predicting the Habs to be a bubble playoff team?

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Most here were predicting Habs and Sens to be bottom two...

The Senators maybe, but Montreal wasn't pegged to finish low.

 

[Dache]

Very true, i'm not trying to run down McDavid. Just it's weird when one player accounts for getting points on 57% of all goals. I don't know that it makes the Oilers a good or bad team but it does make them very unbalanced. The other lines should be chipping in more.

It’s hard to be balanced when you have a player that has 20 more points than anyone else and almost 30 more points than anyone not on his team after only 50 games. What can you put on another line to balance that out? I’d say a player that much ahead of everyone else is just as weird as being in on 57% of the goals his team scores.

 

[waffledave]

It’s a stupid question, so no. I won’t determine what the correct course of action is until the games are actually played. Something I suspect most coaches and GM’s do as well.

You seem to have no problems making up wild hypotheticals about the team losing in the playoffs because they all got abducted by aliens, but the idea of them losing just because somehow escapes you.

 

[waffledave]

I mean at the end of the day it is kind of a pointless conversation right now. The why matters if you are talking about something like trading Mitch Marner. I have my doubts the Avalanche will be making Makar available for a trade anytime soon either way. Like I said earlier how many years did the Caps fall short of expectations losing in the 1st or 2nd round of the playoffs? Would the correct action have been to give up on the core? Or do you keep trying to fill in around it and find the right combination from outside the core. The only core piece I can realistically see being in jeopardy is Rielly if he has a really bad playoffs along with him being a free agent after next season.

The Caps are kind of the exception IMO. Going like 10 years with nothing is also not something I can see happening in Toronto either.

 

[waffledave]

You know we can go back and look at the past few pages in this thread right? I[mod]

You are free to post your examples if you are indeed able.

 

[kylbaz]

That matters why exactly? You act as if McDavid hasn’t already done this multiple times in his career.

Hes been on a pace like this multiple times in his career derp?

 

[waffledave]

That kind of trade just isn't going to be available though - and Marner's AAV would make any similar move very difficult for the acquiring team. I mean, if they disappoint, maybe you move Rielly but then are still left with a gaping hole on defense.

The Leafs have a talented core. Like it or not, this is likely the roster they're going with for the next 2-3 years. Even if they disappoint in the playoffs, there won't be a blow-up. It'll be like Washington, St. Louis, or even Tampa. Just keep going for it, keep the core intact, make some good tweaks around the edges, and hopefully you make a breakthrough. Hockey is a big crapshoot.

Hey, that's fair. Leafs are not my team, so it's easy for me to question this core if it fails to get it done again when it matters. If they ride it out and it works, that will prove to be the right move. For me, another playoffs loss after the year they just had will come as a huge shock.

 

[waffledave]

Age at start of 2021-22 season if it were to start in Nov:

Amirov 20
Robertson 20
Sandin 21
Lilly 22
Matthews 24
Marner 24
Nylander 25
Mikheyev 26
Rielly 27
Kerfoot 27
Hyman 29
Campbell 29
Tavares 30
Brodie 31
Muzzin 32

These guys with the exception of Amirov should all be what makes up the 2021-22 Leafs roster. You don't blow up a f***ing team who's core players are an average of 25-26 and whose superstars are still 24, 24 and 25. While you have stud young D prospects coming up in Sandin, Lilly and potentially Dermott (if he doesn't go in the expansion draft) all under the age of 24.

Would it suck to not go deep this year? No f***ing shit. Every contender would be disappointed to not win the cup. And yes, contrary to HF beliefs, the Leafs are legitimate contenders and I know most people will have their underwear in a knot over this fact but these same idiot people will come talking shit if the Leafs get knocked out early.

Your hypothetical question about making big moves to shake up the team makes no sense. This team has played their hearts out this year and has been one of the most consistent Leafs teams that I've ever witnessed and their effort level and compete has been excellent. The special teams might need some tweaking and we could see some assistant coaches swapped but Keefe, Dubas and Co. have done an excellent job with this club and they won't be making any knee-jerk reactions even if they got swept in the first round.

With Matthews/ Marner/ JT/ Willy/ Sandin/ Lilly/ Amirov/ Robertson, this team has maybe an 8-10 year window where they can be very competitive. Add on the fact that they have majority of their cap coming off the books in the next 4-5 years, we have the flexibility to bring home a Connor McDavid should he hit UFA.

Fair enough. Hope for their sake they can pull it together when it matters. Leafs are the best shot for Canada to win a cup.

 

[WaitingForUser]

It's 57% McDavid, that's an insane statistic. How many of Draistil's points are directly because of McDavid? That isn't a slight to either player, but the numbers don't lie. No other team relies on one player like the Oilers do.

Let me put another way. McDavid has been in the league six years he has won two art Ross trophy’s and multiple Lindsay’s. He has been far and away the most consistent elite player since 2016. In that time the oilers counting this year have made the playoffs 2 times plus a screw job in 2020 while two team members have torn up the points race. So you see if it wasn’t a team effort as evidenced by the fact that both MCDavid and Drai have won the triple crown in the last 5 years but in only one have the team made the playoffs, I would tend to agree.

The oilers though have a plus 29 goal differential a top 2 power play and a top 15 pk. They are once again second in their division as they were last year. They have 2 defenseman that are in the top 10 for points. They are the only team in the league to sweep a full series of 9 games against one team. If they were currently in their normal division they would be only second to Vegas. They are a good TEAM. It’s not all McDavid it’s a total team buy in.

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

You seem to have no problems making up wild hypotheticals about the team losing in the playoffs because they all got abducted by aliens, but the idea of them losing just because somehow escapes you.

I will wait until the playoffs to judge their performance. Even if they were swept in the first round, blowing it up would be about the stupidest possible thing to do though.

 

[Dieseloil]

Very true, i'm not trying to run down McDavid. Just it's weird when one player accounts for getting points on 57% of all goals. I don't know that it makes the Oilers a good or bad team but it does make them very unbalanced. The other lines should be chipping in more.

Were you around when Mario did it? It’s not a horrible thing.

 

[CanadasTeam]

I know a lot of people have said a lot of stupid things in this thread(s), but just remember, you all know as much as the so called "best" hockey "Journalists"

Sportsnet NHL Insider predictions for 2020-21 season

Stanley Cup predictions for 2020-21 NHL season

NHL predictions 2021: Final standings, awards, playoff projections, Stanley Cup pick

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/attachments/screen-shot-2021-05-04-at-1-16-23-pm-png.429700/

Elliotte Friedman included (his predictions are as stupid as the rest)

All i can say is: Yikes

Not surprisingly, the vegas sports books were the best predictors of standings:
2021 NHL Season Betting Preview - Stanley Cup and Division Futures Odds

Lol, yeah I'm shocked Poulin guessed the top 4 correctly.

 

[waffledave]

I will wait until the playoffs to judge their performance. Even if they were swept in the first round, blowing it up would be about the stupidest possible thing to do though.

ok. If they do get swept and come back without fixing shit it will be very curious to see how the city and media reacts.