C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part III

[Steve Kournianos]

The OP broached the nationality bias with me - his quote was something like “...you ranked Mittelstadt — an American — over Patrick...”. Totally unnecessary and irrelevant to even mention it unless it chapped his rear end.

Any claim that I favor kids because they are American has been disproven anyway. Tough noogies if you guys fail to acknowledge the strength of this year’s NTDP. Maybe stop your bias and watch them play. Hockey TV is 30 bucks a month, so you can see Canadian Jr. A as well.

Besides, multiple Canadian-based sources have guys like Boldy or Turcotte or Zegras over Dach, Krebs or Cozens.

You can not like Hughes yet still maintain a sense of awareness on how good a prospect he is.

The OP offers no conclusion IRT Hughes. No ranking, and his comparision to Keller is with a kid who hasn’t even reached his prime yet.

OP’s anti-Hughes stance in a nutshell:

“Jack Hughes has a low IQ, isn’t producing enough and doesn’t know defense. Thus, his NHL upside is in line with the likes of Clayton Keller, who has a high IQ , plays a two-way game, and by the age of 20 has led an NHL team in scoring the last two seasons.”

Brilliant.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

and the people who constantly pick the 2nd best to be the best have been wrong. See the few people who picked Eichel to be better than McDavid or the Matthews/Laine situation. Some people just love to pick the 2nd best guy to be the best. It's "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. I see it here almost every year.

Eichel vs McDavid was when I learned this lesson.

While I still think Eichel could bag a Hart Trophy or Art Ross, he isn't Connor McDavid. No matter how much I talked myself into it I was wrong. Not sure if it was pure smart man, I thought how high Eichel kept his hands on his stick and some of the other absurd gifts we have seen on display could equal out and that just simply isn't the case. McDavid is peerless in terms of the league, I really believe that and I know people said it in his draft year and I argued with some of them but I will admit I was wrong on him.

Still when the entire industry is telling you something you should pay attention... There aren't a whole lot of issues in Jack Hughes' game. He might not be McDavid or Matthews but he is an elite #1 talent that is overwhelmingly the best player in this draft. It is going to continue to play out that way till the draft in my opinion. Because his ability to drive offense is something you really don't want to be the "smart guy" gm and pass up or you will have a ton of explaining to do to your owner quickly in my opinion....

 

[CLW]

and the people who constantly pick the 2nd best to be the best have been wrong. See the few people who picked Eichel to be better than McDavid or the Matthews/Laine situation. Some people just love to pick the 2nd best guy to be the best. It's "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. I see it here almost every year.

Sloppy logic again. Yes, there may well be such a tendency. No, it does not mean that is the case here. Arguments can only be met on their own merit.

 

[AmericanDream]

Of course scouts have never been proven to be wrong, have they?

Every single scouting service, and I mean every damn one of them backs up my eye test as well...this list is 10 actual NHL scouts and not just some scouting service who would create some type of controversy for the clicks alone but that hasn't even happened yet..Nobody has Kakko above Hughes and not even for the click bait lol...maybe, just maybe the 2-3 random posters on here hijacking this kids thread are absolutely dead wrong? I laugh when looking back at the Brady Tkachuk thread right now, but this one, this is going to live on in HF Infamy as one of the most shameful yet hilariously horrible takes of a thread.... and the gap between this one and the 2nd most horrible take thread is as big as the gap between Hughes and Kakko.

 

[Blue and Green]

Every single scouting service, and I mean every damn one of them backs up my eye test as well...this list is 10 actual NHL scouts and not just some scouting service who would create some type of controversy for the clicks alone but that hasn't even happened yet..Nobody has Kakko above Hughes and not even for the click bait lol...maybe, just maybe the 2-3 random posters on here hijacking this kids thread are absolutely dead wrong? I laugh when looking back at the Brady Tkachuk thread right now, but this one, this is going to live on in HF Infamy as one of the most shameful yet hilariously horrible takes of a thread.... and the gap between this one and the 2nd most horrible take thread is as big as the gap between Hughes and Kakko.

"And lastly I am a betting man....and I actually think Eichel will have the better overall career. I infact think he outperforms McDavid next year as Eichels game will translate easier to the NHL opposed to McDavid...what would you like to bet?? Hahaha.."

And that was in the face of near unanimity in the scouting world that McDavid was not only the top prospect that year but on the same level as Crosby. Perhaps you could tone things down a little.

 

[AmericanDream]

"And lastly I am a betting man....and I actually think Eichel will have the better overall career. I infact think he outperforms McDavid next year as Eichels game will translate easier to the NHL opposed to McDavid...what would you like to bet?? Hahaha.."

And that was in the face of near unanimity in the scouting world that McDavid was not only the top prospect that year but on the same level as Crosby. Perhaps you could tone things down a little.

what in the f*** are you talking about?? you scroll through my posts to see one post I made during an argument that ended in haha and then ignore ALL the other posts that has me saying McDavid would go #1 and is better??? and who gives a f*** if I say Eichel has the better career, I don't care if people think Kakko has a better career than Hughes, I never was in McDavid's thread crapping on the kid pulling that shit...people can think whatever they want, it isn't about anyone saying Kakko is/will be better it is about them trying to trash the other kid..but nice try, epic fail though lulz..

 

[King'sPawn]

So, is this thread going to discuss Hughes anymore? Or is it both sides/schisms just taking time trying to discredit the other?

 

[LDF]

what in the **** are you talking about?? you scroll through my posts to see one post I made during an argument that ended in haha and then ignore ALL the other posts that has me saying McDavid would go #1 and is better??? and who gives a **** if I say Eichel has the better career, I don't care if people think Kakko has a better career than Hughes, I never was in McDavid's thread crapping on the kid pulling that ****...people can think whatever they want, it isn't about anyone saying Kakko is/will be better it is about them trying to trash the other kid..but nice try, epic fail though lulz..

excellent post and you really gave me something to think about. granted i compiles a top 10 list and now i will sit back on it.

i really think your opinion is spot on, even thou i can see some of that comment in me.

many thanks.

 

[FinPanda]

This is just something I've not seen here before.

I think most in this thread would pick Kakko if they have a chance and Hughes is gone. Kakko is a great player, Hughes is better.

 

[LDF]

for me, it is undeniable that Hughes is talent.

stating that, i am wondering long and hard into seeing if those skills will be transferable to the next level, that level is the NHL. the intangibles are a hard check, a body on him, etc..... how will he respond to those kind of checks and will he can he bounce back.

~~~ disclaimer - i have had these opinion since the beginning of the season and nothing has made me change my opinion.

Kakko is my choice for #1.... and i know what the experts have to say (mock draft) .

 

[Rabid Ranger]

for me, it is undeniable that Hughes is talent.

stating that, i am wondering long and hard into seeing if those skills will be transferable to the next level, that level is the NHL. the intangibles are a hard check, a body on him, etc..... how will he respond to those kind of checks and will he can he bounce back.

~~~ disclaimer - i have had these opinion since the beginning of the season and nothing has made me change my opinion.

Kakko is my choice for #1.... and i know what the experts have to say (mock draft) .

You don't think tier one skating and playmaking skills are transferable to the next level? What about the clear trend in the NHL where smaller, more slightly built players cannot only exist but thrive?

 

[LDF]

You don't think tier one skating and playmaking skills are transferable to the next level? What about the clear trend in the NHL where smaller, more slightly built players cannot only exist but thrive?

an excellent point.

i have always maintain that stat wise a prospect can not achieve their stat from minor to the nhl esp in the modern era..... so this is where i am basing my idea on. also remember i am saying he is absolutely unbelievable talent. i just have a hard time equating this to success in the nhl.

also remember i am a fan with a fan's biased ......

 

[a mangy Meowth]

i have always maintain that stat wise a prospect can not achieve their stat from minor to the nhl esp in the modern era..... so this is where i am basing my idea on

What does this even mean ???

 

[Dominance]

Joe Veleno is living proof of the dangers of overscouting. Jack Hughes should and will go first overall.

 

[Kevin Musto]

 

[FinnishSniper]

Joe Veleno is living proof of the dangers of overscouting. Jack Hughes should and will go first overall.

How many NHL goals has Veleno got? Far from a sure fire NHL star..

 

[Dominance]

How many NHL goals has Veleno got? Far from a sure fire NHL star..

Likely significantly more than most of the players drafted in the 20-25 spots ahead of him.

 

[Bevans]

How many NHL goals has Veleno got? Far from a sure fire NHL star..

As many as every player behind him. Maybe he shouldn't have even been drafted!

What a silly comment.

 

[TatarTangle]

What does this even mean ???

I think his or her point is that sometimes what a player does in Junior and the minors doesn't always transfer to the NHL so it's unrealistic to expect Jack Hughes to maintain the same dominance from playing teenagers to grown ass men in the NHL.

Personally, I think he has more than enough talent but it's going to take a couple years for him to learn how to use said talent to reach his potential and most will be underwhelmed with his rookie season.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I think his or her point is that sometimes what a player does in Junior and the minors doesn't always transfer to the NHL so it's unrealistic to expect Jack Hughes to maintain the same dominance from playing teenagers to grown ass men in the NHL.

Personally, I think he has more than enough talent but it's going to take a couple years for him to learn how to use said talent to reach his potential and most will be underwhelmed with his rookie season.

This is likely from a person who only stat watches though. Any real scout (as well as both you and I, I'd imagine) knows that prospects stats in junior don't mean that much, it's more about project-able skills/talents/strengths that a prospect displays in those leagues. But thanks for the translation!

 

[LDF]

I think his or her point is that sometimes what a player does in Junior and the minors doesn't always transfer to the NHL so it's unrealistic to expect Jack Hughes to maintain the same dominance from playing teenagers to grown ass men in the NHL.

Personally, I think he has more than enough talent but it's going to take a couple years for him to learn how to use said talent to reach his potential and most will be underwhelmed with his rookie season.

thank you .....

as to being that dominate force that he was before the nhl draft, yes he will not. the caveat to expecting that kind of stat performance is not going to be there.

furthermore i believe that his skills are undeniable and he will have have his ups and downs until it all clicks. so when draft time comes around i am more than sure those professional will be doing the right thing for their club . making my and any other fans opinions worthless.

 

[Whalers Fan]

He missed both games last weekend, so this must be at least a semi-serious injury.

 

[ijuka]

This is likely from a person who only stat watches though. Any real scout (as well as both you and I, I'd imagine) knows that prospects stats in junior don't mean that much, it's more about project-able skills/talents/strengths that a prospect displays in those leagues. But thanks for the translation!

This isn't exactly true, though. This is the mistake that was made with Alex Debrincat - You should just have looked at his stats and you'd have drafted him in the appropriate spot. On the topic of stat watching, a fundamental thing to look for is a player's upwards trajectory. This is what makes an undrafted overager like Brett Leason a very likely first round pick this draft. However, Hughes doesn't have such a clear upwards trajectory in his production this season. He's essentially producing at the level he was last season. Yes, perhaps it's not everything in itself, but it also isn't something that should be just swept under the rug. Even McDavid was able to show a clear improvement in production for his draft season even though the season before was already extremely productive.

When we're talking about "project-able skills/talents/strengths", the level of competition definitely becomes a factor. It's difficult to showcase an ability to battle along the boards when you have no one strong to battle against, for instance. And it's difficult to showcase outplaying defense when all the defensemen are terrible. Additionally, many things that might work against lower level players can then become completely ineffective at the NHL level - We can look at Casey Mittelstadt as an example. Extraordinary hands and great skating with very creative playmaking, but against NHL level he perhaps hasn't been able to accomplish as much as one would hope with such a skill set. Of course, Hughes is a much higher calibre prospect but you need a high level of competition to be able to showcase many of these things scouts look for.


By the way, on myself here - I actually have been hyping Hughes up in his thread for several years on here now, IIRC it was before he even participatein NTDP. It's not a case of me "suddenly becoming interested in him because he might threaten Kakko" - Hughes was high on my radar before Kakko, after all. He simply has disappointed me somewhat this season, likely due to my high expectations for him. Overall, my argument has simply been to use the information you have and to not dismiss others' opinions just because they go against the consensus.

 

[a mangy Meowth]

This isn't exactly true, though. This is the mistake that was made with Alex Debrincat - You should just have looked at his stats and you'd have drafted him in the appropriate spot. On the topic of stat watching, a fundamental thing to look for is a player's upwards trajectory. This is what makes an undrafted overager like Brett Leason a very likely first round pick this draft. However, Hughes doesn't have such a clear upwards trajectory in his production this season. He's essentially producing at the level he was last season. Yes, perhaps it's not everything in itself, but it also isn't something that should be just swept under the rug. Even McDavid was able to show a clear improvement in production for his draft season even though the season before was already extremely productive.

When we're talking about "project-able skills/talents/strengths", the level of competition definitely becomes a factor. It's difficult to showcase an ability to battle along the boards when you have no one strong to battle against, for instance. And it's difficult to showcase outplaying defense when all the defensemen are terrible. Additionally, many things that might work against lower level players can then become completely ineffective at the NHL level - We can look at Casey Mittelstadt as an example. Extraordinary hands and great skating with very creative playmaking, but against NHL level he perhaps hasn't been able to accomplish as much as one would hope with such a skill set. Of course, Hughes is a much higher calibre prospect but you need a high level of competition to be able to showcase many of these things scouts look for.

Absolutely agree with every point you made. I just don't think stats can be used in every single case, it's just another part of the kit to be used in certain situations

 

[King'sPawn]

I'm starting to have concerns about Hughes' durability. Missed a couple games of the WJC and now the Five Nations?