C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part III
- Thread starter Blade Paradigm
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Can you explain how Hughes is elite when it comes to creativity, playmaking, and pass accuracy but needs improvement when it comes to puck distribution?
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Puck hogging. He circles and circles while skating into his own man up high, thus creating a disadvantage down low. He wants the puck all the time. Thing is, he still creates chances even after holding the puck for 10-15 seconds straight. Teams can’t defend against it. They try trapping him near the line but he attacks the closing wall of the double team. Does he do it on purpose? Who knows.
Like Mark Price attacking the screen and roll. It’s quite amazing, TBH. He turns a 1-on-2 into a 4-on-3 in a split second — all inside the offensive zone. I noticed USHL teams stopped chasing him high with a double team. Some poor Youngstown kid tried to challenge him up high and Hughes embarassed him. One of hundreds of examples.
Dominance
99-66-4-9-87/97
I agree, it is very odd to read Steve commenting on a poster’s bias when you look at his history of draft rankings. Essentially every American prospect moves up from their average position on actual rankings, even when doing so violates his public comments on what are the best traits in a prospect.
I think there’s a phenomena growing in the hockey world that doesn’t get much attention, and that’s on the increasing overhyping of American players. We’ve seen it with Eichel and Matthews, and with guys like Mittelstadt becoming astonishingly overrated throughout the hockey community. We see it with Boeser (~0.6 PPG without Pettersson, put at #4 in a redraft by supposedly non-partisan NHL.com) and McAvoy (inexplicable, quasi-religious support). We saw it with Brady Tkachuk during his hot streak, and we see it with Quinn Hughes, who has somehow acquired hype worthy of a truly generational prospect, not an undersized seventh overall pick with severe limitations. I suppose it is because the US is where the greatest developing interest in hockey is seen, so everyone’s eager to see great success for their young players.
And now we see it in regards to Jack Hughes. Even as I see him as the clear top prospect in this draft, one cannot ignore the overly sensitive responses to every comparison and criticism. While (thank God) everyone - at least externally - admits that comparisons to McDavid are just insane, I don’t see why it’s a criminal offense to some to question why he should be compared to someone like Kane or Matthews, when essentially all the evidence (that I’ve seen and processed through my own unintentional bias) points towards him being much, much closer to someone like Keller.
Given all this, how can anyone be surprised by a push-back from certain posters on here?
Dominance
99-66-4-9-87/97
Yeah, we can all pick apart his game as much as we want, but when it comes down to it, I struggle to see how anyone can really make ANY argument for anyone other than Kakko to be ahead of Hughes. And that’s a tough one too.
I guess I’ll take this opportunity to call on @Pavel Buchnevich, who has Turcotte #1. I’ve been interested in that ranking since I saw it and would be really, honestly intrigued in the rationale behind it.
Steve Kournianos
@thedraftanalyst
Oh, puh-lease. The pushback has nothing to do with nationality.
Another lame take by another poster with an obvious anti-American attitude who knee-jerks him way around acceptance -- this year's NTDP is the best in history and is being assessed as such, not only by me but by people from all over the world who actually watch games instead of youtube clips.
The goal is to assess and evaluate the best players. Period. Arthur Kaliyev is an American who grew up 15 minutes from my old neighborhood in Brooklyn. He's ranked 26th on my list and falling, and he's behind Canadian-born OHLers like Suzuki and McMichael.
In 2018, I ranked Brady Tkachuk behind Joe Veleno when every Canadian scribe had it the other way around. I ranked Ty Smith ahead of Quinn Hughes -- also the opposite of what most Canadian-based writers and bloggers had.
The OP totally cherry-picked my Patrick-Mittelstadt rankings to show his clear anti-American bias. I clearly -- clearly -- stated all of 2017 that Patrick, a Canadian, was the best prospect in 2017 and only his injury temporarily knocked him off the No. 1 ranking -- for a whopping 30 days!. OP conveniently failed to mention that I placed Patrick back to No. 1 after he was cleared medically. That's why he gets pushback. He's dishonest.
Patrick (Canadian)
PRE-1, SEP-1, OCT-1, FEB-1, MAY-3, FINAL-1
Mittelsdtadt (American)
PRE-2, SEP-2, OCT-2, FEB-2, MAY-1, FINAL-2
In 2016, I ranked Jakob Chychrun -- a Canadian -- ahead of Matt Tkachuk and Pierre-Luc Dubois -- a Canadian -- ahead of Clayton Keller, who I saw live nearly a dozen times that year and spent most of that season speaking his praises. Yup, tons of bias there.
Before you start labeling people as being nationalists, go ahead and ask people in your own country why they thought Matthews and Hughes are consensus No. 1's.
What a joke.
justafan22
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King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
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Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
It's a paradigm shift.
Pavel Buchnevich
Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Positional value. I don't see Hughes as a center. Kakko isn't a natural center.
I have Turcotte and Cozens ahead of Hughes. I think they'll also bring a lot of value in parts of the game other than points that Hughes doesn't bring.
AmericanDream
Thank you Elon!
https://www.tsn.ca/it-s-still-the-jack-hughes-draft-1.1246625
I guess these idiots don't know what they are talking about either lol...
It is the Jack Hughes Draft.
Still.
Amid speculation that perhaps the star American’s grip on No. 1 status for the 2019 NHL draft was in question after the World Junior Championship, the 5-foot-10-1/4, 168-pound centre remains the unanimous No. 1 on TSN’s Mid-Season NHL Draft Rankings.
Just as he was on TSN’s Pre-Season Rankings in September.
Each of the 10 NHL scouts surveyed by TSN this week had Hughes at No. 1 on their list. Ten for 10.
But that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some closing of what started this season as a considerable gap between Hughes and the rest of the 2019 draft class.
“We still have Hughes at No. 1,” one NHL scout said, “but he’s No. 1 within
a group of five or six. At the start of the season, Hughes was in a group by himself. He has company now.”
Many of the scouts surveyed said the strong play of Finnish forward Kaapo Kakko, who scored the gold-medal winning goal at the WJC, and Russian forward Vasili Podkolzin, who played a prominent role in Russia’s bronze-medal performance at the WJC, represent a challenge of sorts to Hughes.
But not one of those scouts was prepared to put Hughes anywhere other than No. 1. And some of them said that while the strong play of Kakko and Podkolzin, who are Nos. 2 and 3 respectively on TSN’s mid-season list, has tightened the race somewhat, there’s no need to overthink things.
“Hughes was the clear No. 1 to start the season, he is, for me, the clear No. 1 right now and I strongly suspect he’ll be the clear No. 1 at the draft,” another scout added. “There have been times this season where [Hughes] hasn’t been as productive or dominant as we expected, but he’s still playing at a really high level and putting up points. He’s a special player. So have Kakko and Podkolzin closed the gap? Yes, they have. But does a gap still exist? I would say yes.”
I love the "no need to overthink things" lol...if only this could be said on here...
I guess these idiots don't know what they are talking about either lol...
It is the Jack Hughes Draft.
Still.
Amid speculation that perhaps the star American’s grip on No. 1 status for the 2019 NHL draft was in question after the World Junior Championship, the 5-foot-10-1/4, 168-pound centre remains the unanimous No. 1 on TSN’s Mid-Season NHL Draft Rankings.
Just as he was on TSN’s Pre-Season Rankings in September.
Each of the 10 NHL scouts surveyed by TSN this week had Hughes at No. 1 on their list. Ten for 10.
But that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some closing of what started this season as a considerable gap between Hughes and the rest of the 2019 draft class.
“We still have Hughes at No. 1,” one NHL scout said, “but he’s No. 1 within
a group of five or six. At the start of the season, Hughes was in a group by himself. He has company now.”
Many of the scouts surveyed said the strong play of Finnish forward Kaapo Kakko, who scored the gold-medal winning goal at the WJC, and Russian forward Vasili Podkolzin, who played a prominent role in Russia’s bronze-medal performance at the WJC, represent a challenge of sorts to Hughes.
But not one of those scouts was prepared to put Hughes anywhere other than No. 1. And some of them said that while the strong play of Kakko and Podkolzin, who are Nos. 2 and 3 respectively on TSN’s mid-season list, has tightened the race somewhat, there’s no need to overthink things.
“Hughes was the clear No. 1 to start the season, he is, for me, the clear No. 1 right now and I strongly suspect he’ll be the clear No. 1 at the draft,” another scout added. “There have been times this season where [Hughes] hasn’t been as productive or dominant as we expected, but he’s still playing at a really high level and putting up points. He’s a special player. So have Kakko and Podkolzin closed the gap? Yes, they have. But does a gap still exist? I would say yes.”
I love the "no need to overthink things" lol...if only this could be said on here...
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If people don't want to think I leave that up to them...
Other than that I had a few question marks over things in the article, such as that Hughes will play C in the NHL and Kakko is a winger. Well, maybe but I think odds are even at least that Hughes will end up on the wing, and it's quite possible Kakko will transition to C. The anonymous scout said Hughes still has another gear, I don't disagree, but I think that can be applied to Kakko and Podkolzin etc as well.
McKenzie has a rather poor history with their evaluation of Finnish prospects. They don't even consider Kakko as C for instance.
In my opinion they are pretty optimistic with their analysis of Hughes here and don't even address some legitimate concerns.
CheckingLineCenter
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- Aug 10, 2018
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Not trying to be combative but I’ll try and counter the points you made:
If had to rank young stars overall, I’d go McDavid, call MacKinnon/Matthews a tie and throw Eichel at 4. I think those two are clear cut top echelon types who have lived up to the billing and beyond.
Mittelstadt- One of the few “elite” prospects I’ve gotten to see multiple times live in-person (post-draft), and he blew me away. Could have been North Korean. Yes he was/is likely overhyped (if you were expecting a 1OA type), but I totally get why after seeing him and don’t think it was USA related. And tbf to him he’s only a rookie and can always improve/get better.
It’s too early for a 2015 redraft- but clearly Boeser at #4 is way too high, he’s around 10 or maybe later for ‘15. Not a huge fan of his game actually, but he’s still a young stud who can beat goalies and people put a premium on that (for good reason). Not sure why he was so high on whatever re-draft you’re referring to so could be a pro-USA bias there. Could also be pro-Canucks bias though too.
Agreed; I’d take Barzal over McAvoy too. I think Barzal is insane and prefer centers to dmen. I also think you’re underrating Charlie Mac though- he stepped into the NHL as a 20 y/o blueliner, played 22 minutes a night, put up above a .5 p/pg despite not running Boston’s PP1, had excellent possession numbers (good relative #s too), his zone tracking stats were excellent both in break-outs and defending entries, and he averaged 2+ hits a game despite average size. Passes the eye test too, as he carries the play well. I could go on but the hype is very warranted with McAvoy, and I hate Boston. He’s gotta shake the injury stuff tho.
Well I mean Brady Tkachuk was a 4th overall pick who immediately jumped into the NHL and exploded. I think there would be a hype train for anyone who did that, regardless of nationality. He gets good linemates and yes scoring is up but a 23 G, 48 point pace (lot of ES production too) for a teen straight out of his draft is extremely good. If he keeps his current .PPG average it would be the 25th best scoring pace for a teenager in the cap era. Imo the hype is warranted and has nothing to do w/ him being American. If Brady Tkachuk was or is ever overrated, I’d suspect it would have everything to do with his blood and not his nationality.
Imo Quinn Hughes hype is more about him being a top 10 pick, the second D-man chosen in his draft, averaging above a point per game from the blue-line as a younger NCAA player and insane skating ability. I’m not going to sit here and say he’s perfect or guarantee his NHL stardom, but he’s routinely touted as a Top 5, 10 drafted prospect from what I’ve seen. I think you hear his name more because he’s a Canucks prospect, (as opposed to markets like the Blue Jackets or Coyotes) and his little brother is the likely 1st overall pick in the very next draft after him- which is cool and newsworthy. That generates clicks/views to people who don’t follow prospects or even the NHL. I don’t believe it’s because he’s American.
EscapedGoat
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- Jun 15, 2012
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McKenzie doesn't evaluate any prospects. He's very transparent that his lists are from polling scouts, not his opinion. Hughes is listed as number one not because McKenzie thinks he's the best player but because all the scouts that he's talked to have told him that Hughes is number one on their lists.
AmericanDream
Thank you Elon!
Well everyone can have their own opinion but this is literally McKenzies and the scouts job. So ill wager that they know more than you
Steve your so awesome! You need a job in the show. I love how you observe the game from so many perspectives and always drop the truth and knowledge. I love reading your stuff man.
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Blade Paradigm
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- Oct 21, 2017
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My team drafted Jack's brother. One of the team's brightest and most likeable stars, Brock Boeser, is American. To accuse someone of having a bias against any player on the basis of their nationality is downright ignorant, and any person who downplays a player's abilities on the basis of anything other than hockey-related issues is a person without credibility. Always take the best player available, whether that player is from a hockey powerhouse or a small hockey nation.
It would not matter to me where Jack is from; if he was the best player in this draft, I would want my team to select him with the first-overall pick. However, I do not think as highly of him game as you do and have simply expressed an analysis of his game; the fact that you, @Rabid Ranger, and @AmericanDream all take offense to a perspective that is disagreeable with yours is a sign that this is personal to you.
If I thought Jack was as good as you think he is, I would endorse him for first overall. Does it make sense to unite the Hughes brothers? Yes. Do I think that this would be the smartest decision for my team with the first-overall pick? Certainly not. I think his game has far too many faults and his risks as a player make him a gamble with the top pick.
You do not respect this point of view and have tried to slander me.
If you want to address dishonesty, how about your lack of consistency in applying your values to the scouting of players?
In 2017, you stated that you valued Mittelstadt over every European player because he had greater size; you considered him to be more NHL-ready.
In 2015, you said that Eichel was a better pro prospect than McDavid on the basis of his greater size and the notion that he would take less time to adapt to the NHL -- in other words, more NHL-ready.
In 2018, you chose Svechnikov over Dahlin because you deemed him was more NHL-ready.
The Draft Analyst | 2018 NHL Draft Rankings: The Preseason 500
"Remember, a team picking first or second overall usually is in bad shape both on the ice and at the box office. Goals win games. Wins fill seats. In our opinion, the shortest path to success begins with Svechnikov."
You vouched for Svechnikov over Dahlin based on the argument that Dahlin would take more time to develop. Of course, this was a complete misreading of Dahlin's game by you, but nevertheless, you have been very consistent with your belief that the most NHL-ready player should be selected first.
However, with regards to Mittelstadt and Hischier, you betrayed your own values. Hischier was the more NHL-ready player with his two-way game; Mittelstadt was much more raw. You did not recognize Hischier's much-publicized two-way game. You also did not consider hockey IQ, as one would easily have told you that Hischier is the smarter player of the two. While Mittelstadt had size, he was less NHL-ready than Hischier.
Now, with two players whose pucks skills are similar, you prefer the player with a plethora of faults -- Hughes -- rather than the more complete, pro-ready player -- Kakko. Hughes possesses issues in the areas that you have expressed concern about before with other top prospects: size and pro-readiness.
Indeed, I have questions about your method of scouting, as contradictions exist between your evaluation of various players.
You have accused me of "cherry-picking video," but I have merely highlighted plays where certain deficiencies can be identified very obviously. I am surprised that you can not identify the problems are in those clips; if it is not bias, then maybe you just do not recognize those issues with his game.
There are several full games available for anyone to view online, and I have shared them on several occasions here. The feedback from those games is the same as that of viewers who watched him at the 2019 World Juniors.
Again, you previously have accused an entire industry of being dishonest for disagreeing with your opinion. With regards to accusing others of bias, you have zero credibility.
"Nobody is being honest about what separates McDavid from Eichel."
Your checklist identifies some of the same problems that I have highlighted in my evaluation of Hughes.
All of his strengths are skill set-related, and the majority of attributes that require improvement are decision-based. The fact that you protest my assessment despite, in your own words, defining his strengths as his skill and his weaknesses as his decision-making with the puck is the point of contention here.
I'll re-post your checklist below with your bullet points placed into four categories:
1. Blue - Skill Set
2. Red - Hockey IQ
3. Green - Physical Attributes
4. Pink - Concentration/Miscellaneous
---------------------------
Kournianos' Assessment of Hughes:
Elite/Excellent:
1. Vision
2. Creativity/playmaking
3. Edges
4. Pass accuracy
5. Hands/Touch
6. Stickhandling/puck control
7. Work ethic
8. Straight-line speed
9. Decision making under pressure
10. First-step quickness
10. Elusiveness/agility
11. Acceleration
12. Consistency
13. Teammate
14. Compete level
Average
1. Shot power
2. Shot accuracy
3. Balance
4. Release
5. Faceoffs
6. Backchecking
Needs improvement:
1. Physical play
2. Defensive positioning
3. Shot selection
4. Puck distribution
5. Strength below circles
---------------------------
Jack Hughes' strongest attributes are his puck skills and skating; his weaknesses revolve around his decision-making. I do not dispute that nor do you.
The major difference between our assessments is that you have no concerns about the issues on your own "needs improvement" list. Those attributes play a crucial role in determining a player's hockey IQ: knowing when to shoot the puck, knowing when to pass the puck, and knowing where to be defensively. A player with above-average hockey IQ relative to his peers would not lag behind his peers in these areas, thus it is illogical that he would be considered of "high IQ" and not simply of "average IQ." There are quite a few smart two-way players at his level already. If his overall game is not already up to par against junior-level competition, then it is far from acceptable by NHL standards. That makes him a project.
Instead of calling someone "anti-American," why not discuss the lack of consistency between your "high IQ" argument here and your own checklist?
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Sort of like how they knew more than me in 2015 when they didn't even have Sebastian Aho ranked in their top 75 for their final ranking in 2015? I hope you realize that just because they're professionals doesn't mean they're correct about everything.
Thanks, pal. Had no idea - good thing you cleared that up. Here I was thinking the lists were his and weren't actually done as a result of polling scouts. Good thing you understood my point here. I'm glad you stopped to consider what I actually might have meant with my post.
On the above post, it's very well thought-out. Indeed, Jack Hughes has some great skills when it comes to skating and hands, but his decision-making is worthy of some concern, especially when we consider that it's against very weak competition - How will he be doing against older, more experienced competition if he struggles to make good decisions even against his peers?
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Exactly, like pick an argument and stick with it lol. Steve, you've lost pretty mcuh all credibility with Eichel>McDavid for me, that's soooooo bad
Hockey IQ is usually a thing that sticks out against men and not boys, I'd say it's rather concerning that Steve thinks that Jack lacks decision making skills while playing against his peers
Rabid Ranger
2 is better than one
Exactly, like pick an argument and stick with it lol. Steve, you've lost pretty mcuh all credibility with Eichel>McDavid for me, that's soooooo bad
As if you, Blade Paradigm, or any other poster on this site has "credibility." Lol. This has now devolved into picking on Steve for past evaluations. Fine. Take Steve out of the equation. Who is still the consensus #1 pick? Jack Hughes! Lol. You don't like the player-fine. Move on.
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