This is some odd reasoning.
He is the presumptive #1 right now, so the rate in which players drop from #1 has everything to do with his situation.
It turns out that this rate is 44.4% since 2000.
I've seen people try to argue that the preseason favorite is never really upset in the rankings by time of the draft. That notion is wrong.
Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza were labeled #1 years before their draft class.
Big Kids With A Big Future Two talented 16-year-olds, Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza, represented Canada at the world juniors - Sports Illustrated
Big Kids With A Big Future Two talented 16-year-olds, Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza, represented Canada at the world juniors
By Kostya Kennedy
January 10, 2000
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With that, Spezza, a 6'3", 195-pound center and Bouwmeester, a 6'4", 200-pound defenseman, joined Wayne Gretzky (1978) and Eric Lindros (1990) as the only 16-year-olds to make Canada's junior team, which is composed predominately of 19-year-olds.
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MacLean isn't the only executive to have such visions dancing in his head. Many pro scouts feel that Spezza will be the first player selected in the NHL's 2001 entry draft. Bouwmeester, who is about three months younger than Spezza, will be eligible for the draft in '02, and he, too, could go No. 1.
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Though Bouwmeester, who has gentle features and sandy hair, was used much more regularly than Spezza, he was still getting less ice time in Sweden than he was used to receiving with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League. He had seven goals and 11 assists in 30 games for the Tigers, but numbers don't tell the whole story for a player who draws oohs and aahs simply by gliding onto the ice. NHL scouts have compared Bouwmeester's fluid skating to the gaits of Hall of Famers Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. Says MacLean of Bouwmeester, "He's such a great skater that he glides better than most people skate."
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"Many pro scouts feel that Spezza will be the first player selected in the NHL's 2001 entry draft. Bouwmeester, who is about three months younger than Spezza, will be eligible for the draft in '02, and he, too, could go No. 1... [Bouwmeester] had seven goals and 11 assists in 30 games for the Tigers, but numbers don't tell the whole story for a player who draws oohs and aahs simply by gliding onto the ice. NHL scouts have compared Bouwmeester's fluid skating to the gaits of Hall of Famers Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. Says MacLean of Bouwmeester, 'He's such a great skater that he glides better than most people skate.'" - Kostya Kennedy, Sports Illustrated, January 10, 2000
The Next Phenomenon: Jay Bouwmeester - Hockey's Future
The Next Phenomenon: Jay Bouwmeester
By Trenton Allen
April 6th, 2000
When you see this kid play, you know you are seeing greatness. He can skate with the best of them, make tape-to-tape passes blindfolded, and his vision of the ice and the play that is unfolding is unsurpassed. Who am I talking about? Who else. Jay Bouwmeester.
This 16 year old star in the making of the Medicine Hat Tigers has just finished his first season in the WHL. Few defensemen before have stepped in at his age and done as much as this young man. Quarterbacked the powerplay, got to play some shorthanded situations, and was often a catalyst on a team that many nights was severely lacking in the offensive department.
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Probably the best part of watching him play is that you get the felling that, as good as he is, he’s capable of so much more. When ever he gets the puck you get on the edge of your seat not know if your going to see just another dump-in, or watch Bouwmeester make a brilliant end-to-end rush. Probably the best thing about watching him play, and the worst thing for all other teams in the WHL, is that you know that he’s only scratched the surface of what he can do.
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"Probably the best part of watching him play is that you get the felling[sic] that, as good as he is, he’s capable of so much more. When ever he gets the puck you get on the edge of your seat not know if your going to see just another dump-in, or watch Bouwmeester make a brilliant end-to-end rush. Probably the best thing about watching him play, and the worst thing for all other teams in the WHL, is that you know that he’s only scratched the surface of what he can do." - Trenton Allen, Hockey's Future, April 6, 2000
Bouwmeester's Star Ready to Shine - Hockey's Future
Bouwmeester’s Star Ready to Shine
By Jeff Bromley
April 1st, 2002
It’s been a hockey story eighteen years in the making and although the plot has been it’s juiciest the past three or four winters, the book is within just months of it’s climax, at least of volume one. This story is about a kid out of Edmonton who they say can skate as effortlessly as water flowing down a river, has all the modern tools of the game in his shot and natural size and seemingly can control or change the outcome of game if he so desires.
His name is Jay Bouwmeester (pronounced Boo-meester) and this year is his official breaking out, or rather the breaking in party to possible stardom in the NHL.
Ever since the Medicine Hat Tigers drafted the kid that had many scrambling how to pronounce his vowel-filled last name with the first overall pick in the 1998 WHL Bantam Draft, Bouwmeester has been high on the radar of every NHL Scout on the continent. And from game one with the Tigers the defensive prodigy that had scouts dropping their donuts and spilling their coffees did not disappoint, nor would he for the next three WHL seasons, one more than most highly-touted draft picks get because of two days.
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Pegged to go number one in the 2001 Draft for the last three years, you might think the pressure could get to a teenager treated like the second coming of Coffey or perhaps even Orr. The reserved Bouwmeester however thinks otherwise.
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"And from game one with the Tigers the defensive prodigy that had scouts dropping their donuts and spilling their coffees did not disappoint, nor would he for the next three WHL seasons, one more than most highly-touted draft picks get because of two days.... Pegged to go number one in the 2001 Draft for the last three years, you might think the pressure could get to a teenager treated like the second coming of Coffey or perhaps even Orr. The reserved Bouwmeester however thinks otherwise." - Jeff Bromley, April 1, 2002
It really doesn't matter where a player was relative to his peers at the age of 16. All players develop at different rates, hence why some want the draft-eligible age to be changed to 19. If a player starts to underperform, there is no reason to think that others can't pass him.
Players are ranked based on where they are at the time of their selection window and what they project to be from that point on. Whatever they did at 15 or 16 is less relevant than where they are relative to their peers in the months leading up to their selection.
Neither Spezza nor Bouwmeester were selected first overall.
Ilya Kovalchuk surpassed Spezza in 2001. Rick Nash and Kari Lehtonen were selected ahead of Bouwmeester in 2002.
The last first-overall pick not to immediately play in the NHL was Chris Phillips in 1996.
The last first-overall forward not to play a significant amount of his rookie season in the NHL because he was not yet developed enough for his team was Joe Murphy in 1986. Mike Modano, Mats Sundin, and Eric Lindros all skipped their post-draft seasons in the NHL for non-play-related reasons: contract issues, military obligations, and a holdout, respectively.
In the case of Modano, he signed his contract in January 1989, thus was not allowed to join the North Stars until his junior season was over.
I could see Jack playing in the NCAA next season like Clayton Keller did. Mitch Marner, meanwhile, returned to his junior team after he was drafted. Based on Hughes' play so far, he's not ahead of either of them at the same point in their draft seasons. Marner was torching the OHL at a 2.0 PPG rate. Keller was ahead of where Hughes is in their respective draft seasons with the USNTDP.