C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part II

[Rabid Ranger]

NA bias at it's finest.

You can clearly see it with Hughes at the moment.

Yeah, that's it.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

So his points are comparable to Kakko's even though Kakko is playing against much tougher opposition. Just because Hughes' opponents will get easier and (hopefully) his points go up does not make him the better player.

So, I guess you think Kakko would come in and just stomp top tier NCAA competition-right? I mean, that's the narrative being pushed.

 

[Dominance]

yep, different posters with the same objective as last year with Tkachuk...try to diminish what he does, stats, stats, stats...Hughes by the end of the year will have torched the league yet again, but what he does on the ice just like Tkachuk is why scouts are salivating.

I mean, Tkachuk adds a lot of elements that stats don’t cover, including his physicality, agitation, fair defensive game...

If Hughes isn’t producing offensively and showing up on the stat sheet he’s not adding much to the game. He’s certainly not a committed defensive player; he’ll backcheck and use his speed to strip individual players, but let’s be real, he’s not shutting down anyone and he’s not going to be leading the defensive recovery of possession. Not that one would expect any player of his offensive talent to be such. His tendency for turnovers has also been noted by multiple scouts.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I mean, Tkachuk adds a lot of elements that stats don’t cover, including his physicality, agitation, fair defensive game...

If Hughes isn’t producing offensively and showing up on the stat sheet he’s not adding much to the game. He’s certainly not a committed defensive player; he’ll backcheck and use his speed to strip individual players, but let’s be real, he’s not shutting down anyone and he’s not going to be leading the defensive recovery of possession. Not that one would expect any player of his offensive talent to be such. His tendency for turnovers has also been noted by multiple scouts.

Who cares about his lack of an overall game at this point? That's the go to narrative when attempting to create draft day competition for players like Hughes. It results in a lot of unnecessary hand wringing.

 

[FinnishSniper]

So, I guess you think Kakko would come in and just stomp top tier NCAA competition-right? I mean, that's the narrative being pushed.

Call me crazy but I think he would. The guy is rag-dolling GROWN professionals (!) in a mens league. I think if Kakko manages to cement his spot at center, he is worthy of a number one pick. His team is like the Leafs in the NHL so he does not get the opportunity at center.

We will see if Hughes really is a tier above Kakko in WJC

 

[Dominance]

Who cares about his lack of an overall game at this point? That's the go to narrative when attempting to create draft day competition for players like Hughes. It results in a lot of unnecessary hand wringing.

No, I agree with that. I was just pointing out the illogical nature of comparing Hughes and Tkachuk beyond the stat sheet.

 

[tony d]

Hughes vs. Kakko will be a fun battle to watch over the course of this season. I still take Hughes but think the World Junior's will help both guys' cases for going #1.

 

[stampedingviking]

So, I guess you think Kakko would come in and just stomp top tier NCAA competition-right? I mean, that's the narrative being pushed.

Do you think Hughes could put up the same numbers in FEL against men as he's doing now?

 

[stampedingviking]

Who cares about his lack of an overall game at this point? That's the go to narrative when attempting to create draft day competition for players like Hughes. It results in a lot of unnecessary hand wringing.

Maybe Hughes should?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Maybe Hughes should?

This is goal post moving. Of course he cares. Is he an adept two-way player at this point? Of course not. Can he get better? Sure. Is lack of a two-way game or turnovers when he has the puck a ton going to kill his draft status? No.

 

[kroypuck]

Hughes being so hyped has not helped him at all. I've watched all of the NCAA games so far, and he gets shadowed every single game. Always playing against the other teams best line. This has opened the door for people like Boldy to score more than they did last year. Caufield has also struggled so far this year and that has a big impact on Hughes stat line. Tbh it's a miracle that Hughes is leading the team in points right now. There are games where he goes unnoticeable because of how much he is getting shadowed, but still ends up with multiple points.

Bottom line is Hughes is the most dynamic offensive player in this draft. If you think Kakko is ahead of Hughes right now, you're stat watching. Kakko would struggle the same way Hughes is if he was getting targeted the way Hughes is.

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

Hughes being so hyped has not helped him at all. I've watched all of the NCAA games so far, and he gets shadowed every single game. Always playing against the other teams best line. This has opened the door for people like Boldy to score more than they did last year. Caufield has also struggled so far this year and that has a big impact on Hughes stat line. Tbh it's a miracle that Hughes is leading the team in points right now. There are games where he goes unnoticeable because of how much he is getting shadowed, but still ends up with multiple points.

Bottom line is Hughes is the most dynamic offensive player in this draft. If you think Kakko is ahead of Hughes right now, you're stat watching. Kakko would struggle the same way Hughes is if he was getting targeted the way Hughes is.

But.. Kakko also gets targeted in the mens league.
This is a weird hill to die on. And aren't good players supposed to break through players shadowing them like 1st overalls tend to do?

Now don't take this as me being a homer for Kakko- I haven't watched either player nearly enough to form good opinions, and rather would like him to play badly vs Kärpät when we match up against him. (That also doesn't mean that I wouldn't want a new Finnish superstar in the NHL)

But I don't buy your argument at all. Especially when one is playing junior hockey and one is playing men.
Glorifying the the absence of points that were expected is certainly a new thing for me..

 

[kroypuck]

But.. Kakko also gets targeted in the mens league.
This is a weird hill to die on. And aren't good players supposed to break through players shadowing them like 1st overalls tend to do?

Now don't take this as me being a homer for Kakko- I haven't watched either player nearly enough to form good opinions, and rather would like him to play badly vs Kärpät when we match up against him. (That also doesn't mean that I wouldn't want a new Finnish superstar in the NHL)

But I don't buy your argument at all. Especially when one is playing junior hockey and one is playing men.
Glorifying the the absence of points that were expected is certainly a new thing for me..

So you haven't watched either player enough to form an opinion, but you form an opinion. I mentioned the fact that Hughes was still putting up points even when he was being shadowed, the point was that he is able to break through. And I'm not sure when I glorified the absence of points...he literally leads the team in points and is over a point a game lol. I was saying he would have even more points if Caufield was playing like his normal self. People just assume Hughes is struggling if he's not putting up 2 points a game. It's unbelievable.

By no means is Hughes playing any different than he was last year, people like you just love a different narrative.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Just a reminder that 6 of the NTDP's first 10 games have been against NCAA teams, not USHL junior teams. It will be 7 of 11 after Monday's game versus Dartmouth.

With all of this talk about the NCAA part of the schedule, it's worth noting that Clayton Keller scored 10 goals, 30 points in 17 games against the NCAA teams in his draft season with the USNTDP. That's a PPG of 1.76, higher than his cumulative PPG average of 1.72 that season.

U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2015-16 Regular Season - Roster - #19 - Clayton Keller - F

Hughes has 1 goal, 6 points in 6 matches against NCAA opponents so far this season.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

True the other way around too. Hughes has been considered a tier ahead of everyone else in part because of the insane stats he had. But is he, as a player, known to be a tier ahead of Kakko?
Maybe his skill set is ahead of all others, and some of the hype comes from highlight reel plays that we've all seen. A scout will look beyond that, and could find Kakko to be a better hockey player.

He is consider a tier ahead of everyone else because of his insane hands and ability to play at speed. That has helped contribute to the stats, but rest assured it is the actual physical and mental hockey IQ that has scouts sold on him. What I was pointing out is there has been no movement in NHL scouting circles, McKenzie kicked off this years like the other years that we knew there was going to be no movement.

It isn't a competition and it isn't going to be one. But if some fans and it seems like unfortunately for them the most recent example is going to be Finnish fans that tried Laine and Matthews this is going to be a similar non-starter. Because barring a catastrophic injury Hughes isn't coming back to the field this year.

I personally don't have Kakko in my top 5 so I am going to be harder on this comparison than most. But again in the scouting community this is a year you don't expect movement on the #1 pick, it really isn't up for debate and it seems everyone in the industry knows that.

 

[Whalers Fan]

I have not seen Kakko play, so I will refrain from making any comparisons between him and Hughes. I have seen Jack Hughes play in person a lot -- and I will be seeing him play a lot more this season. All I can say is whichever team drafts him is going to get one heck of a player.

 

[S E P H]

With all of this talk about the NCAA part of the schedule, it's worth noting that Clayton Keller scored 10 goals, 30 points in 17 games against the NCAA teams in his draft season with the USNTDP. That's a PPG of 1.76, higher than his cumulative PPG average of 1.72 that season.

U.S. National Under-18 Team - 2015-16 Regular Season - Roster - #19 - Clayton Keller - F

Hughes has 1 goal, 6 points in 6 matches against NCAA opponents so far this season.

Sure, but again you're trying to pinpoint data to skew your opinion. Like, you need to see the strength of those teams and compare to the teams that Hughes played against. I can say that Hughes has played against some of the top and most improved teams thus far except for Ferris State. I have no problem trying to devalue Hughes and promote Kakko, but do that in the Kakko thread instead of listing everything horrible about Hughes in the Hughes thread.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Kakko has only three assists and zero goals in his last eight games. Let’s not make him out to be a rookie doing something extraordinary. Kotkaniemi and Kappo both had 7 points in their first 9 Liiga games of their respective draft years before slowing down.

Sorry but outside of size I see no legitimate justification for ranking him ahead of Hughes.

TPS is a one-line team. The NTDP has three first lines and might have 10 or more kids picked in the first round. The NTDP’s job is to develop kids, not fill arenas or win League titles. That’s why ice time is divided relatively equally and the coaches dont reward a hot hand like TPS would.

This is the best NTDP in years and in the running for best all time. Weaker NTDPs saw top players like Keller log a ton of ice time. Hughes loses ice time to Zegras (recently moved from center to wing), Turcotte, Beecher and Weight. Why? Because it’s the best thing for their development. TPS does not have that same agenda.

Besides, are you watching Hughes? Extraordinary hockey sense on a Crosby/McDavid level. Hughes is facing one of the toughest NCAA schedules ever for the NTDP and it’s only half over. The stats will balance out when he’s averaging 2 pts a game against the USHL.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Kakko has only three assists and zero goals in his last eight games. Let’s not make him out to be a rookie doing something extraordinary. Kotkaniemi and Kappo both had 7 points in their first 9 Liiga games of their respective draft years before slowing down.

Sorry but outside of size I see no legitimate justification for ranking him ahead of Hughes.

TPS is a one-line team. The NTDP has three first lines and might have 10 or more kids picked in the first round. The NTDP’s job is to develop kids, not fill arenas or win League titles. That’s why ice time is divided relatively equally and the coaches dont reward a hot hand like TPS would.

This is the best NTDP in years and in the running for best all time. Weaker NTDPs saw top players like Keller log a ton of ice time. Hughes loses ice time to Zegras (recently moved from center to wing), Turcotte, Beecher and Weight. Why? Because it’s the best thing for their development. TPS does not have that same agenda.

Besides, are you watching Hughes? Extraordinary hockey sense on a Crosby/McDavid level. Hughes is facing one of the toughest NCAA schedules ever for the NTDP and it’s only half over. The stats will balance out when he’s averaging 2 pts a game against the USHL.

With all due respect, Steve, I don't think your information about Hughes' ice time is correct. While the USNTDP does not record TOI, @landy92mack29 ans @KillEmAll83 have done two shift-by-shifts of Hughes this season, and one of Cole Caulfield.

Hughes logged over 23 minutes in the USHL game vs Omaha on September 30, 2018; he logged over 22 minutes on October 13, 2018 vs University of Minnesota.

Caulfield, Hughes linemate vs Notre Dame on October 7, 2018, logged 21 minutes that night.







I would have bought your explanation if we didn't have evidence to prove otherwise. It looks like the Hughes line is averaging over 21 minutes per night, however.

With TPS being a one-line team, it would naturally mean opposing teams would target that one line defensively. With a balanced scoring lineup, the USNTDP has an offense that would naturally have opposing teams struggle to shut them down.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Sure, but again you're trying to pinpoint data to skew your opinion. Like, you need to see the strength of those teams and compare to the teams that Hughes played against. I can say that Hughes has played against some of the top and most improved teams thus far except for Ferris State. I have no problem trying to devalue Hughes and promote Kakko, but do that in the Kakko thread instead of listing everything horrible about Hughes in the Hughes thread.

You mean we're not supposed to discuss Hughes' season in the Hughes thread? Regardless of what any other player is doing, Hughes' performance this year is a topic we should be allowed to discuss.

I'm not trying to skew anything, so I've taken your advice and accounted for only the games that Clayton Keller played against Top-20 ranked teams on the 2015-16 USCHO rankings (NCAA hockey team rankings) -- teams that entered the Top 20 are listed here.

vs University of Notre Dame (peak #7): 1 G, 2 P
vs Boston University (peak #3): 0 G, 3 P
vs Dartmouth College (peak #20): 2 G, 4 P
vs University of Minnesota Duluth (peak #2): 1 G, 2 P
vs St. Cloud State University (peak #2): 1 G, 3 P
University of North Dakota (peak #1): 0 P
University of Michigan (peak #5): 1 G, 1 P

Clayton Keller recorded 6 goals, 15 points in 7 games against Top 20-ranked NCAA teams in his draft season. That's a PPG average of 2.14.

Hughes so far in 2018-19:

University of Notre Dame (peak #2): 0 P
University of Michigan (peak #4): 1 G, 3 P
University of Minnesota (peak #6): 0 G, 1 P
Boston University (peak #8): 0 G, 2 A

Hughes has 1 goal, 6 points in 4 games so far against Top-20 ranked NCAA teams this season. This is a PPG average of 1.50.

Based on the current rankings, the U18s will play five more games against Top-20 ranked NCAA teams this season. To get a sense of Clayton Keller's dominance, in order to match Keller's PPG average against Top-20 ranked teams, Hughes would need to score 13 points in those 5 games.

So, let's get this straight: Jack Hughes is on the best team in USNTDP history, playing 21+ minutes per night with lots of offensive support, and is having a lesser season so far than a direct comparable, Clayton Keller.

As a Canucks fan, the idea of drafting Hughes sounded great before I started watching him. I've seen a lot of him now, and he just isn't that appealing. He shoots the puck like Henrik Sedin and he stays on the outside all the time. He takes risks with the puck and gets caught. He doesn't have the power of McDavid to get around checks, and can be scrambly in his own end. He's a great transition player with wheels and strong passing ability, but that's nowhere near enough to consider him ahead of his competition.

The USNTDP doesn't look like it's a level below him. He looks like he could actually benefit by playing the year with the U18s.

I watched almost all of Keller's home games in person during his U18 season, and I can confirm that he played center that season. He showed a lot of talent and intelligence in that season, so I wasn't surprised he went in the top 10 of his draft.

It will be interesting to see how Hughes compares to Keller in his U18 season, assuming Hughes comes back to the NTDP next season.

A big topic last year was the comparison between Hughes and Keller. This quotation is from December 2017.

I don't think Hughes has anywhere near lived up to Keller's draft season so far.

 

[ookhaab]

I would have bought your explanation if we didn't have evidence to prove otherwise. It looks like the Hughes line is averaging over 21 minutes per night, however.

With TPS being a one-line team, it would naturally mean opposing teams would target that one line defensively. With a balanced scoring lineup, the USNTDP has an offense that would naturally have opposing teams struggle to shut them down.

I would like to know which one-line is Steve talking about, Kakko has played the majority of the season with Filppula and Wirtanen on the 2nd line, while Palve has played on the 1st line with mainly Budish and Bjorkstrand. These lines have been pretty much interchangeable and Kakko has also seen recently playing time with Palve and Bjorkstrand.

The ice time in TPS is divided fairly evenly, with forward ATOI leaders having 18:57, 18:26 and 17.53 (Kakko is 4th with 17:34) while 4th liners have got 10:10, 11:32 and 12:48 ATOI.

Kakko has only three assists and zero goals in his last eight games. Let’s not make him out to be a rookie doing something extraordinary. Kotkaniemi and Kappo both had 7 points in their first 9 Liiga games of their respective draft years before slowing down.

Saying stuff like this doesn't just discredit you, but everyone who say people are only stat watching when ranking Kakko ahead of Hughes.

If you have actually watched them, you'd know Kakko is on completely different level than Kotkaniemi was at any point in Liiga.

Kakko absolutely dominates full grown men physically and does what he wants on daily basis and if anything, is hurt by his teammates not being able to bury the chances he sets up. (Ilari Filppula who is mainly playmaker, had 5 goals last year in 36 games, this year while playing with Kakko, he has tied it in only 14 games.)

Oh and Kakko was also better than Kotkaniemi in the U18 WJC.

 

[93LEAFS]

Man, Matthews/Laine took until at least February or March of 2016 to get this heated... Could be a long 6 months around here.

Hughes hasn't had the crazy start people predicted, but we are only about 5 weeks into the start of his season. I'm not his biggest fan here, and I think he got some unrealistic expectations placed on him by some (the main one being the expectation he was clearly above previous elite USNTDP talents like Matthews and Eichel a conclusion drawn significantly from stat-watching).

 

[FinPanda]

I don't have Kakko ahead of Hughes but it still is annoying to see false things about Kakko. Kakko has been the best TPS player in nearly every game. He has created a lot of chances for others but his teammates can't bury them. His teammates don't usually pass the puck to him even if he is wide open. He also doesn't get a lot of PP time, so his production has to come from 5v5. TPS has two good lines, it is not a one line team. Kakko is very special, he is a lot better prospect than Kotkaniemi is.

Also if Steve watches a lot of Kakko's games he would know these things. You are just stat watching if you can't see these things.

 

[thomast]

Kakko has only three assists and zero goals in his last eight games. Let’s not make him out to be a rookie doing something extraordinary. Kotkaniemi and Kappo both had 7 points in their first 9 Liiga games of their respective draft years before slowing down.

Sorry but outside of size I see no legitimate justification for ranking him ahead of Hughes.

TPS is a one-line team. The NTDP has three first lines and might have 10 or more kids picked in the first round. The NTDP’s job is to develop kids, not fill arenas or win League titles. That’s why ice time is divided relatively equally and the coaches dont reward a hot hand like TPS would.

This is the best NTDP in years and in the running for best all time. Weaker NTDPs saw top players like Keller log a ton of ice time. Hughes loses ice time to Zegras (recently moved from center to wing), Turcotte, Beecher and Weight. Why? Because it’s the best thing for their development. TPS does not have that same agenda.

Besides, are you watching Hughes? Extraordinary hockey sense on a Crosby/McDavid level. Hughes is facing one of the toughest NCAA schedules ever for the NTDP and it’s only half over. The stats will balance out when he’s averaging 2 pts a game against the USHL.

This was pretty bad knowledge of Kaapo vs Kotkaniemi at their draft year. Kaapo have showed alot more in leading role than Kotkaniemi at his draft year. Constantly creating chances and making high end plays, draws penalties and winning board battles against men. Kotkaniemi was little bit a perimeter player who played in sheltered role. Points watching is fun thing to do but Kakko is in another tier compared to Kotkaniemi when measuring their overall performance. I would slot his performance ahead of Laine too close to Barkov. He has 9 primary points out of 10 and seems to be unlucky to not have more points. I think he is most talented finnish prospect at that age i’ve seen in liiga so far. He isn’t finnished product by any means but his skill set and ceiling seems to be highest.

TPS might have one of the deepest foward line ups in Liiga. Stating that team being 1 line team is not valid. Their PP1 is all apples in 1 basket but Kakko plays in PP2 because they have so deep line up. TPS is like maple leafs of Liiga. They have 2 first lines and solid 3rd and 4th line.

Based on my limited views i like Hughes more when i watched u18 WC’s but i don’t like when posters post false info about other prospects.

 

[justafan22]

Remember when Puljujarvi was ranked higher than laine?