C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part II

[Whalers Fan]

Yeah, I agree on the announcements. That is all that was missing. Just printing the goals and penalties on the screens in that muted font would have been helpful. I will suggest it for the next game next time I'm there.

Yeah, I already sent an email to the box office director with the suggestion of using the video boards for the scoring plays in the future. I also mentioned it to the writer from the Observer newspaper who interviewed me after the game.

Please do the same next time you are there. Constructive criticism along with positive comments have been well received by the organization in the past. The more people who offer the same suggestion the better.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Since Jack won't be playing until the U18 5 Nations Tournament starts on November 7, 2018, it makes sense to report his current stats at such a natural interval:

Jack Hughes (14 GP with U18 USNTDP team, D+0 Season, Sept. 12 to Nov. 1, 2018):

3 G, 17 A, 20 P in 14 GP (1.43 PPG)

Contributing to 29.9% of his team's total scoring (Team GF = 67)

TOI > 21 min per night (data based on five shift-by-shifts of him and linemates this season; program does not record official TOI)

5.3% shooting percentage (57 shots on goal; average 4.07 shots on goal per game)

He has the 4th-worst +/- on his team despite leading them in points. Of the forwards, he has the 3rd-worst.

He has 5 powerplay points so far and 15 even strength points. To be a -2 means he has been on the ice for 17 goals against. The opponent has scored a total of 49 goals this season, which means he has been on the ice for 34.7% of his team's goals against. The team has scored 13 powerplay goals, so he has contributed to 38.46% of their powerplay production.

12 of his 20 points are primary points.

-------------------------------------

Clayton Keller (first 14 GP with U18 USNTDP team, D+0 season, Sept. 12 - Nov. 5, 2015):

7 G, 17 A, 24 P in 14 GP (1.71 PPG)

Contributing to 49.0% of his team's total scoring (Team GF = 49)

TOI = ?

? shooting percentage (USNTDP didn't log SOG on their website from this season)

? +/- (USNTDP didn't log +/- on their website)

10 of his points were powerplay points. 14 were even strength points. The team scored a total of 13 powerplay goals, so he contributed to 76.92% of their powerplay scoring.

21 of his 24 points were primary points.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

@KillEmAll83 has released a new shift-by-shift video of Trevor Zegras' performance against Dartmouth on Oct. 22, 2018. He played on Hughes' line, so the video doubles as a Hughes shift-by-shift video.

He is excellent at transitioning the puck up the ice. His sharp turns upon getting into the opponent's way allow him to bolt up the ice with great quickness. However, he is such a risky player in his own zone. He constantly tries either to move the puck up when he has no space, or he puts himself in a bad position and then throws the puck to a teammate, who then becomes hemmed in. His defensive play is scrambly.

Unlike McDavid, he does not attack the net, so that is the biggest difference between the two. Hughes likes to gain the zone and then distribute the puck, or bring the puck in and take it wide. He likes to hold on to it and use his edges to fake-out the opposing defender, then he'll carry it past them. I see a player who knows he can accelerate past the opponent, but he doesn't have the ability to stickhandle around the opposition a la McDavid. Hughes is just fast and nifty, but not in total control at high speed.

He is fairly limited to perimeter play. The team that selects him would value his ability to counter-attack and move the puck up the ice. He isn't a great in-zone player.

#6 for USNTDP.



In the first two minutes of the video (shift at 1:18), he literally tries to cut in front of his own goaltender with the puck while an opponent puts pressure on him; the puck ends up in his own corner.

 

[Rudeboyting]

If some GM gets “HFitis” and passes on Hughes over his PPG he’ll get burned.

He has a special ability and it’s clear by just watching him...unfortunately the “x factor” doesn’t get picked up on an Excel sheet. Hughes is a winner.

I love Keller and think he’s sickeningly underrated on here, but regardless of point totals Hughes will be better.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

If some GM gets “HFitis” and passes on Hughes over his PPG he’ll get burned.

He has a special ability and it’s clear by just watching him...unfortunately the “x factor” doesn’t get picked up on an Excel sheet. Hughes is a winner.

I love Keller and think he’s sickeningly underrated on here, but regardless of point totals Hughes will be better.

His puck transition ability is among the best and he is a dart on the ice, but he can't shoot the puck well at all and his hockey IQ isn't quite as high as some think it is, especially in the defensive end. He does a lot at his current level because he's fast and shifty, but he's a bit of a one-trick pony, and he's not a finisher.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

His puck transition ability is among the best and he is a dart on the ice, but he can't shoot the puck well at all and his hockey IQ isn't quite as high as some think it is, especially in the defensive end. He does a lot at his current level because he's fast and shifty, but he's a bit of a one-trick pony, and he's not a finisher.

I definitely agree that Hughes' skillset is more limited than people are letting on. But I also think there are some teams where he'd really flourish. Detroit comes to mind, where the forward group is trending toward bigger players with an emphasis on grit and goalscoring, but sorely lacking that high end playmaker and PPQB. He could play behind Larkin and take easier matchups, too.

 

[TimeZone]

If some GM gets “HFitis” and passes on Hughes over his PPG he’ll get burned.

He has a special ability and it’s clear by just watching him...unfortunately the “x factor” doesn’t get picked up on an Excel sheet. Hughes is a winner.

I love Keller and think he’s sickeningly underrated on here, but regardless of point totals Hughes will be better.

You act like this draft is shallow. I hear there is a pretty good player from Finland available...and that Dach guy seems like he's pretty good at Hockey too.

 

[Gabrielor]

You act like this draft is shallow. I hear there is a pretty good player from Finland available...and that Dach guy seems like he's pretty good at Hockey too.

Agreed. I personally think this draft is incredibly strong.

Hughes is a surefire top tier talent, I just don't think he's in his own world compared to his class like some guys in previous years.

 

[Newfoundland]

I personally don't think he'll go first

 

[snipes]

I personally don't think he'll go first

6’4 centre Kirby Dach is every bit in that conversation for 1 OA

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I personally don't think he'll go first

Based on what?

 

[Piestany88]

Based on what?

Kakko

 

[Artorius Horus T]

I am actually thinking changing my mind about Jack, i dunno...
More and more highlights (this season's) i see of him, less and less convinced i am.

For the next "ranking event" or what ever, i think Kakko&Dach might be both ahead of Jack Hughes.
(should be at least)

Kakko&Dach have taken giant leaps this season, where as Hughes... its just same "schtick" game after game (via highlights)
- these posted here and youtube one's - Both Kakko&Dach look like complete different player what to last season
in their respective leagues.

I haven't seen much growth, development from last season to this, its like Jack's development curve has stalled, flat lined as it were.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I am actually thinking changing my mind about Jack, i dunno...
More and more highlights (this season's) i see of him, less and less convinced i am.

For the next "ranking event" or what ever, i think Kakko&Dach might be both ahead of Jack Hughes.
(should be at le
Kakko&Dach have taken giant leaps this season, where as Hughes... its just same "shtick" game after game (via highlights)
- these posted here and youtube one's - Both Kakko&Dach look like complete different player what to last season
in their respective leagues.

I haven't seen much growth, development from last season to this, its like Jack's development curve has stalled, flat lined as it were.

So, Hughes is playing the same way he did last year leading him to be the consensus #1 he's for the draft coming into this season but now he's slipping? Why? To be clear I think he will be challenged by some other guys, in particular Dach and Cozens. Kakko is likely in the mix as well.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

So, Hughes is playing the same way he did last year leading him to be the consensus #1 he's for the draft coming into this season but now he's slipping? Why? To be clear I think he will be challenged by some other guys, in particular Dach and Cozens. Kakko is likely in the mix as well.

Last season Hughes was standing high alone above everyone, but now, others have improved, tons
some are even close of passing him, or already passed him, where as Jack has continued without any progress.

 

[Doublechin]

As far as I'm concerned he might go 3rd

 

[danyhabsfan]

I see him as a McDavid lite.

Great skating and playmaker.


His shot isn't the greatest though.

 

[Nabrules]

LOL classic HFBoards.. if he had 5 more points and had 25 points in 14 none of these people would be saying this. Jack Hughes is going first overall. He’s going to be great at the world juniors and everyone is going to forget this Hughes may be 3rd

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I see him as a McDavid lite.

Great skating and playmaker.


His shot isn't the greatest though.

Reminds me more of Johnny Gaudreau than McDavid.

 

[Dominance]

LOL classic HFBoards.. if he had 5 more points and had 25 points in 14 none of these people would be saying this. Jack Hughes is going first overall. He’s going to be great at the world juniors and everyone is going to forget this Hughes may be 3rd

Let me preface my comment by saying that I think he’d get picked first in June even if he was injured the rest of the season.

But that might be a bad choice. Nobody’s saying he’s not a great prospect, but there are real issues with Hughes beyond the fact that he is currently statistically regressing at the same level of competition. We all knew it would come eventually, but there shouldn’t be any comparisons to McDavid. It remains to be seen if comparisons to Eichel/Matthews are valid, too.

Hughes is an insane puckhandler and outstanding skater who can do things others can’t even think of with ease. But he has a relatively poor shot that surprised me this summer and has been apparent in his lack of goal scoring this year. He also has been noted repeatedly for his turnover issues and regularly trying to do too much in the offensive end - possibly an impact of over-scouting, but relevant. His defensive game is not an issue for what he is but not a strength. He’s small, and it’s apparent in a way it isn’t in a player like Crosby; he was regularly down on the ice during the summer and I have read comments that this trend of being somewhat easy to knock down or out of position - provided you can actually get an advantageous position on him, which is no easy thing - has continued into NTDP play. He’ll go first overall and likely be a superstar sooner than later, but he has a significant range of weaknesses that cannot be ignored when projecting him.

Take Kirby Dach. The skating and playmaking abilities are highly comparable. Dach has the undeniable edge in shooting ability and has a major size advantage which effects the game in many ways. I’ve seen way more of him and am probably hugely biased, but he also has a far superior defensive game in my eyes, and I don’t think anyone can argue it isn’t better at all than Hughes’. Are Hughes’ “vision” and “hockey IQ”, which are impossible to pin down, greater to enough of an extent that he will be a significantly better NHL player? I honestly couldn’t say, although I do know that increasing one’s shooting ability, primarily power, is one of if not the easiest task for a young player to tackle.

 

[VictorLustig]

Outside of fans, has anyone actually said the gap is getting smaller?

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Outside of fans, has anyone actually said the gap is getting smaller?

Not really. Not to say it won’t happen though.

 

[AmericanDream]

As far as I'm concerned he might go 3rd

I think 6th is more appropriate...

 

[Icebreakers]

LOL classic HFBoards.. if he had 5 more points and had 25 points in 14 none of these people would be saying this. Jack Hughes is going first overall. He’s going to be great at the world juniors and everyone is going to forget this Hughes may be 3rd

Everyone would look better if they had a 25% increase in points..

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I feel like I’m not watching the same shift-by-shift videos as others.. he looks absurdly good. He’s making so much happen. Hands and skating jump off the screen at me.