C Jack Hughes - USNTDP (2019 Draft) Part II

[DDRhockey]

Hughes vs. Kakko will be a fun battle to watch over the course of this season. I still take Hughes but think the World Junior's will help both guys' cases for going #1.

Wjc deciding draft rankings is awful, i hate when scouts do that

 

[MasterMatt25]

Remember when Puljujarvi was ranked higher than laine?

Matthews, Chychrun and Puljujarvi were supposed to be the top 3 I remember. Laine was around 10th

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Remember when Puljujarvi was ranked higher than laine?

What deep comment.

 

[thomast]

Remember when Puljujarvi was ranked higher than laine?

Here at 2015 i stated that Laine is higher tier prospect compared to Puljujärvi and some posters called me crazy.

https://cdn1-hfboards.mandatory.com...-kärpät-liiga-2016-draft-ii.1969967/page-14

I actually follow these finnish prospects closely. To me Kakko is best prospect in Liiga i have ever seen if we look at projections and ceilings. Of course Barkov was more mature and posted incredible numbers being even younger but he rarely dominated like Kakko does who can make entire opposite line look clueless ducklings who have lost their mother. I’d be happy if Kakko end up Barkov or Laine level of NHL player. I only talk about draft year projections for talent and ceiling.

To Hughes vs Kakko i love them both and from my limited views Hughes had more impact at U18 WC’s. I just don’t like attitude of other posters telling Hughes being lock for #1 despite how he performs. There is many prospects doing everything to surpass him. Dach seems to be incredible. To me Hughes might be favourite for #1 but he needs a good season to remain at that spot.

 

[justafan22]

What deep comment.

Chychrun was ranked higher too. It's almost like rankings before spring of the draft year are useless.

 

[SAK11]

Matthews, Chychrun and Puljujarvi were supposed to be the top 3 I remember. Laine was around 10th

McKenzie had him 4th in his preseason rankings that year. Maybe other rankings had him lower, though.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Chychrun was ranked higher too. It's almost like rankings before spring of the draft year are useless.

So you think Puljujarvi was a good pick at #4, then? Because he was projected to go in top 5 in spring too.

So maybe all draft rankings are useless?

 

[93LEAFS]

Chychrun was ranked higher too. It's almost like rankings before spring of the draft year are useless.

People really forget or overlook how an NHL draft board is made. While people here with no responsibility to an organization can focus on only the top kids, a regional scout has to worry about a bunch of draft eligible kids in their region, and have valid reports on them. They don't have the free time to heavily emphasize the next draft, let alone look 2 or 3 years down the line. They'll make a preliminary ranking in their meetings prior to the previous draft (so they'll make a small list for the 2019 draft, at the 2018 draft). But, it doesn't tend to be that deep.

To put this in perspective, a regional OHL scout is expected to be informed on the 35 OHL kids taken, plus a bunch of other undrafted players, and is probably also examining the OJHL for talent, and occasionally even players in the local prep-leagues. Higher up scouts like guys who check in on other regions, and the director of scouting (or whoever is managing the draft board) is trying to manage the info of all the guys their underlings have told them are worth drafting, and then turn that into a cohesive rank. Overall, an NHL team is trying to turn monitoring something like 500 or so kids, into a ranked list of 75 to 125 (they just rank who they think is draftable, there is no set number). They'll obviously notice the players who are in the next draft class who really stand-out, but their primary focus for that season is to narrow down their upcoming draft class, and make sure they have all the necessary info on that. The first time people get serious about a draft class is at the Hlinka, which kicks off the scouting season.

It should be noted, it is quite rare for the projected 1 to fall off their rank. It happened with Hischier/Patrick, but Dahlin, Matthews, and McDavid all held their ranks. 2014 had no consensus #1 (although 2 of the consensus top 3 were the #1 and #2 picks). 2013 was a bit contested, but MacKinnon who started the year as the #1 most places kept it, although Jones surprisingly slipped. Taylor Hall, Tavares, and Stamkos also entered their draft years as heavy favorites to go one, and even if they were challenged like Hall and Tavares they kept their spots. So, while I'm not ruling out anyone passing Hughes, we've seen Angelo Esposito situations before, I also wouldn't expect it to be likely given recent history.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

People really forget or overlook how an NHL draft board is made. While people here with no responsibility to an organization can focus on only the top kids, a regional scout has to worry about a bunch of draft eligible kids in their region, and have valid reports on them. They don't have the free time to heavily emphasize the next draft, let alone look 2 or 3 years down the line. They'll make a preliminary ranking in their meetings prior to the previous draft (so they'll make a small list for the 2019 draft, at the 2018 draft). But, it doesn't tend to be that deep.

To put this in perspective, a regional OHL scout is expected to be informed on the 35 OHL kids taken, plus a bunch of other undrafted players, and is probably also examining the OJHL for talent, and occasionally even players in the local prep-leagues. Higher up scouts like guys who check in on other regions, and the director of scouting (or whoever is managing the draft board) is trying to manage the info of all the guys their underlings have told them are worth drafting, and then turn that into a cohesive rank. Overall, an NHL team is trying to turn monitoring something like 500 or so kids, into a ranked list of 75 to 125 (they just rank who they think is draftable, there is no set number). They'll obviously notice the players who are in the next draft class who really stand-out, but their primary focus for that season is to narrow down their upcoming draft class, and make sure they have all the necessary info on that. The first time people get serious about a draft class is at the Hlinka, which kicks off the scouting season.

It should be noted, it is quite rare for the projected 1 to fall off their rank. It happened with Hischier/Patrick, but Dahlin, Matthews, and McDavid all held their ranks. 2014 had no consensus #1 (although 2 of the consensus top 3 were the #1 and #2 picks). 2013 was a bit contested, but MacKinnon who started the year as the #1 most places kept it, although Jones surprisingly slipped. Taylor Hall, Tavares, and Stamkos also entered their draft years as heavy favorites to go one, and even if they were challenged like Hall and Tavares they kept their spots. So, while I'm not ruling out anyone passing Hughes, we've seen Angelo Esposito situations before, I also wouldn't expect it to be likely given recent history.

So the most recent trend here is that #1's with the hype of Hughes have not fallen. Patrick was never cemented as that kind of #1 talent even when he did fall. Even there it took an injury riddled campaign to drop him to two. This isn't going to be a competition that is a part of what I don't understand in terms of the debate. Hughes is the kind of #1 pick that isn't going to drop unless concussions or serious core injuries arise, even there I am not sure given the magnitude of certain #1 talent that he is that he would come back to anyone else.

 

[93LEAFS]

So the most recent trend here is that #1's with the hype of Hughes have not fallen. Patrick was never cemented as that kind of #1 talent even when he did fall. Even there it took an injury riddled campaign to drop him to two. This isn't going to be a competition that is a part of what I don't understand in terms of the debate. Hughes is the kind of #1 pick that isn't going to drop unless concussions or serious core injuries arise, even there I am not sure given the magnitude of certain #1 talent that he is that he would come back to anyone else.

Patrick was a very heavy consensus at #1 at this comparable time. He was pretty 10 out of 10 on Bob's list and #1 everywhere else.

It's happened before. Look at Kessel and Esposito as other examples of this. Kessel entered his draft year viewed as arguably the best American prospect ever. I don't expect Hughes to fall, but I also wouldn't completely dismiss it.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

Wjc deciding draft rankings is awful, i hate when scouts do that

Agreed, One, two week tournament isn't determining anything as far as draft rankings go.... both will put up a bunch of points vs inferior opponents and pad their stats.... drafting is about projecting not about what they do for two weeks in December and January...

 

[DDRhockey]

Agreed, One, two week tournament isn't determining anything as far as draft rankings go.... both will put up a bunch of points vs inferior opponents and pad their stats.... drafting is about projecting not about what they do for two weeks in December and January...

yup look at pettersson, didnt had the best success at WJC but killed it in regular season.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Patrick was a very heavy consensus at #1 at this comparable time. He was pretty 10 out of 10 on Bob's list and #1 everywhere else.

It's happened before. Look at Kessel and Esposito as other examples of this. Kessel entered his draft year viewed as arguably the best American prospect ever. I don't expect Hughes to fall, but I also wouldn't completely dismiss it.

Patrick wasn't hyped to the degree of Hughes, he was the presumptive #1 overall pick, not a player we debated generational status about. They are different beasts.

I guess we will see where the debate goes or more importantly if it ever reaches NHL organizational levels. I know a few NHL scouts and that is the consistent message from them when I talk to them. This isn't a scenario where he is coming back to the field. Again, Patrick also needed an injury plagued campaign to open the door and that isn't with near the fanfare Hughes enters the year with and I am a little surprised you would line Patrick up with him for the comparison.

Jack Hughes has been expected to go in this draft class at #1 since he was 14 years old, nothing has changed within the industry to suggest this has even the slightest hint of a debate going on to change that.

Kessel was always a winger and his off-ice stuff has long been associated with his fall. Kessel and Skille splitting that dressing room hurt both guys in the draft in their years in my opinion.

 

[93LEAFS]

Patrick wasn't hyped to the degree of Hughes, he was the presumptive #1 overall pick, not a player we debated generational status about. They are different beasts.

I guess we will see where the debate goes or more importantly if it ever reaches NHL organizational levels. I know a few NHL scouts and that is the consistent message from them when I talk to them. This isn't a scenario where he is coming back to the field. Again, Patrick also needed an injury plagued campaign to open the door and that isn't with near the fanfare Hughes enters the year with and I am a little surprised you would line Patrick up with him for the comparison.

Jack Hughes has been expected to go in this draft class at #1 since he was 14 years old, nothing has changed within the industry to suggest this has even the slightest hint of a debate going on to change that.

Kessel was always a winger and his off-ice stuff has long been associated with his fall. Kessel and Skille splitting that dressing room hurt both guys in the draft.

I pointed to Patrick because he was the projected 1st overall for about 2 years for his draft class. Despite status, he was a heavy favorite. Hughes was looked at as #1 pick at 14, maybe. But, I don't think anyone really cared at that point. NHL scouts don't care about a prospect until he plays major junior or in a high-level league. They aren't going around ranking GTHL kids.

It would be a situation closer to Kessel, who at one point was viewed as the American Crosby, and he slipped, although that was on the back of character issues. Angelo Esposito and Logan Couture were also viewed as clear guys battling for #1 in the 2007 NHL draft at one point, only to both be surpassed. You are a bit mistaken on the Kessel-Skille issue though, those were both known about prior to Kessel's draft season, that is why Kessel went to Minnesota and Skille went to Wisconsin. They weren't on the same team in Kessel's draft year.

 

[UNITEDSTATESOFHOCKEY]

yup look at pettersson, didnt had the best success at WJC but killed it in regular season.

Sadly the media doesn't have nearly the common sense as most so they will likely hype them against each other like they always try to do at TSN for this tournament.... and too many people buy into it... NHL teams are too smart to fall for that hogwash but bloggers that post draft rankings will likely base their rankings off that tournament. Good thing they don't have the influence they think they have!

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I pointed to Patrick because he was the projected 1st overall for about 2 years for his draft class. Despite status, he was a heavy favorite. Hughes was looked at as #1 pick at 14, maybe. But, I don't think anyone really cared at that point. NHL scouts don't care about a prospect until he plays major junior or in a high-level league. They aren't going around ranking GTHL kids.

It would be a situation closer to Kessel, who at one point was viewed as the American Crosby, and he slipped, although that was on the back of character issues. Angelo Esposito and Logan Couture were also viewed as clear guys battling for #1 in the 2007 NHL draft at one point, only to both be surpassed. You are a bit mistaken on the Kessel-Skille issue though, those were both known about prior to Kessel's draft season, that is why Kessel went to Minnesota and Skille went to Wisconsin. They weren't on the same team in Kessel's draft year.

They split the entire programs and the billeted families between the U17 and U18 years. I know people in the program, it's still referred to as the worst situation they have had behavior wise in the history of the USMNTDP.It was a little better when they weren't overlapping but the issue had some staying power in the program impacting a couple of years.

Those guys sewered each other in interviews as well and the program fractured into two factions with the Skille faction having a little more following. It dates clear back to their days in Madison, but that story as bad as some of what is out there was really an issue with the program for two solid years. Just because one dude plays for the U17 and one the U18s doesn't mean they don't interact and the problems aren't widespread. They attend the same schools, several of the same workouts and it can be a real issue. Though they did institute some things that they learned through this experience.

The scouts I know associated with NHL teams do know quite a bit about the glamour kids in the GTHL like Hughes and McDavid even starting that young. So I wholeheartedly disagree with that take. One of the reasons I have been high on Byfield for a couple years is I have a friend that talks him up already though his bread butter is pro scouting and not amateur, but guess what even he has carved out time to go study him and see him live a few times. Which is really the thing, I don't see any waiver at all in the scouting community on Hughes yet, I really don't anticipate one coming.

I don't think Patrick falls without an injury. I don't think Kessel was ever a landslide #1 and he was hurt by what was surrounding him and well known in scouting circles. Hughes has a higher status and grade than both of them entering this year.

Hughes has to come back somehow. His ppg totals that are still good are not enough right now. I have been told he is routinely the best player on ice this year, he was against U of M and Minnesota, he has been in a lot of contests. To me this right now is a manufactured debate. I understand it, I wanted Eichel to be in one with McDavid, but it just wasn't the case from industry people.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Does anyone know the reason why he didn't accelerate his schooling in order to play in the NCAA this season? The family has had years to figure this out. The NTDP is excellent, but it doesn't present any new challenges.

 

[93LEAFS]

They split the entire programs and the billeted families between the U17 and U18 years. I know people in the program, it's still referred to as the worst situation they have had behavior wise in the history of the USMNTDP.It was a little better when they weren't overlapping but the issue had some staying power in the program impacting a couple of years.

Those guys sewered each other in interviews as well and the program fractured into two factions with the Skille faction having a little more following. It dates clear back to their days in Madison, but that story as bad as some of what is out there was really an issue with the program for two solid years. Just because one dude plays for the U17 and one the U18s doesn't mean they don't interact and the problems aren't widespread. They attend the same schools, several of the same workouts and it can be a real issue. Though they did institute some things that they learned through this experience.

The scouts I know associated with NHL teams do know quite a bit about the glamour kids in the GTHL like Hughes and McDavid even starting that young. So I wholeheartedly disagree with that take. One of the reasons I have been high on Byfield for a couple years is I have a friend that talks him up already though his bread butter is pro scouting and not amateur, but guess what even he has carved out time to go study him and see him live a few times. Which is really the thing, I don't see any waiver at all in the scouting community on Hughes yet, I really don't anticipate one coming.

I don't think Patrick falls without an injury. I don't think Kessel was ever a landslide #1 and he was hurt by what was surrounding him and well known in scouting circles. Hughes has a higher status and grade than both of them entering this year.

Hughes has to come back somehow. His ppg totals that are still good are not enough right now. I have been told he is routinely the best player on ice this year, he was against U of M and Minnesota, he has been in a lot of contests. To me this right now is a manufactured debate. I understand it, I wanted Eichel to be in one with McDavid, but it just wasn't the case from industry people.

Kessel and Skille were the same year USNTDP class just different draft classes. Skille is an early birthday, Kessel is a late one. Similar to how Hanifin and Matthews are the same birth year but a different draft class. Kessel absolutely was a landslide number one for his class at the 2005 WJC and most likely still one entering his frosh year at Minnesota. Kessel has a full year away from Skille by his draft date.

It can emerge as a debate. I’m not pro-kakko or pro-Hughes. I see Hughes as the favourite by a sizeable margin. But I wouldn’t be dismissive of the debate emerging.

Now, as for the GTHL kids, people hear and talk about them. But, no NHL team allocate resources to heavily scout and rank 14 year olds or even guys at the minor midget-level. Obviously, word spreads about highly hyped kids because many NHL scouts have kids in GTHL minor hockey (a heavy portion of scouts are based between Ann Arbour and the eastern Toronto Suburbs, which is about a 5 hour drive) and word of mouth spreads. But, no one gets serious about it until they are at least in the CHL or comparable league, and it doesn’t get really serious until their actual draft year, which is when teams dig in and figure everything they can out.

 

[kroypuck]

Does anyone know the reason why he didn't accelerate his schooling in order to play in the NCAA this season? The family has had years to figure this out. The NTDP is excellent, but it doesn't present any new challenges.

Gap is smaller than you would imagine between international play and the hardest NCAA schedule to date. He could benefit from gaining weight as well which NTDP has a good regimen for.

 

[bigdog16]

Does anyone know the reason why he didn't accelerate his schooling in order to play in the NCAA this season? The family has had years to figure this out. The NTDP is excellent, but it doesn't present any new challenges.

Probably because its not an easy thing to do. Completing 2 years of schooling in 1 year isnt easy, i doubt many on here could do it. And the family didnt really have “years” to figure it out. Its not like they planned on this all unfolding for him 5 years ago

 

[SAM STEVENS]

I really have a hard time thinking this kid can play in the show next year, When is the last time a 1st overall pick never played in the NHL after going 1st?

 

[Blade Paradigm]

Two assists for Hughes against Dartmouth tonight, unless they also counted that phantom assist on Zegras' first goal (a 2-on1 where Zegras' pass to Hughes went off the defender and back to him; at full speed, it looked like a return pass from Hughes).



15 points in 11 games now for Hughes (or 16, with an asterisk?).

6-4 win for USNTDP.

Players ranked #1 in their respective preliminary draft rankings since 2000 who dropped:

2000: Dany Heatley (consensus #1 in the final rankings)
2001: Jason Spezza
2002: Jay Bouwmeester (consensus #1 in the final rankings)
2003: Eric Staal
2006: Phil Kessel
2007: Logan Couture, Angelo Esposito, Jakub Voracek
2011: Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson (T-1 on TSN list)
2017: Nolan Patrick

That's 8 of the last 18 years, which is a rate of 44.4%.

Here's an insider video of scouts debating Spezza vs Kovalchuk. Spezza had been highly-touted for two years before the 2001 NHL Draft.


Spezza is special - Hockey's Future

Spezza is special
By pbadmin
October 6th, 1999

Jason Spezza is a name you are going to hear an awful lot of over the next two years. For those of you who don’t know who he is, he a 6′ 3″, 200 lb centre with the Mississauga Ice Dogs. He was born on June 13, 1983 and this right handed shot is the early favorite to go first overall in the 2001 NHL Entry Draft.

...

 

[93LEAFS]

Probably because its not an easy thing to do. Completing 2 years of schooling in 1 year isnt easy, i doubt many on here could do it. And the family didnt really have “years” to figure it out. Its not like they planned on this all unfolding for him 5 years ago

The Hughes have been planning on his NHL career for a while. He was playing above his age at 14 in minor-midget in the GTHL, and they tried to get exceptional status at one point (but were either declined or told not to apply). Accelerating schooling from grade 9 to finish in 3 years wouldn't be particularly hard. It basically just means taking summer school along-side training.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Two assists for Hughes against Dartmouth tonight, unless they also counted that phantom assist on Zegras' first goal (a 2-on1 where Zegras' pass to Hughes went off the defender and back to him; at full speed, it looked like a return pass from Hughes).



15 points in 11 games now for Hughes (or 16, with an asterisk?).

6-4 win for USNTDP.

Players ranked #1 in their respective preliminary draft rankings since 2000 who dropped:

2000: Dany Heatley (consensus #1 in the final rankings)
2001: Jason Spezza
2002: Jay Bouwmeester (consensus #1 in the final rankings)
2003: Eric Staal
2006: Phil Kessel
2007: Logan Couture, Angelo Esposito, Jakub Voracek
2011: Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson (T-1 on TSN list)
2017: Nolan Patrick

That's 8 of the last 18 years, which is a rate of 44.4%.

Here's an insider video of scouts debating Spezza vs Kovalchuk. Spezza had been highly-touted for two years before the 2001 NHL Draft.


Spezza is special - Hockey's Future

This is some odd reasoning.

 

[Blade Paradigm]

This is some odd reasoning.

He is the presumptive #1 right now, so the rate in which players drop from #1 has everything to do with his situation.

It turns out that this rate is 44.4% since 2000.

I've seen people try to argue that the preseason favorite is never really upset in the rankings by time of the draft. That notion is wrong.

Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza were labeled #1 years before their draft class.

Big Kids With A Big Future Two talented 16-year-olds, Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza, represented Canada at the world juniors - Sports Illustrated

Big Kids With A Big Future Two talented 16-year-olds, Jay Bouwmeester and Jason Spezza, represented Canada at the world juniors
By Kostya Kennedy
January 10, 2000

...

With that, Spezza, a 6'3", 195-pound center and Bouwmeester, a 6'4", 200-pound defenseman, joined Wayne Gretzky (1978) and Eric Lindros (1990) as the only 16-year-olds to make Canada's junior team, which is composed predominately of 19-year-olds.

...

MacLean isn't the only executive to have such visions dancing in his head. Many pro scouts feel that Spezza will be the first player selected in the NHL's 2001 entry draft. Bouwmeester, who is about three months younger than Spezza, will be eligible for the draft in '02, and he, too, could go No. 1.

...

Though Bouwmeester, who has gentle features and sandy hair, was used much more regularly than Spezza, he was still getting less ice time in Sweden than he was used to receiving with the Medicine Hat Tigers of the Western Hockey League. He had seven goals and 11 assists in 30 games for the Tigers, but numbers don't tell the whole story for a player who draws oohs and aahs simply by gliding onto the ice. NHL scouts have compared Bouwmeester's fluid skating to the gaits of Hall of Famers Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. Says MacLean of Bouwmeester, "He's such a great skater that he glides better than most people skate."

...

"Many pro scouts feel that Spezza will be the first player selected in the NHL's 2001 entry draft. Bouwmeester, who is about three months younger than Spezza, will be eligible for the draft in '02, and he, too, could go No. 1... [Bouwmeester] had seven goals and 11 assists in 30 games for the Tigers, but numbers don't tell the whole story for a player who draws oohs and aahs simply by gliding onto the ice. NHL scouts have compared Bouwmeester's fluid skating to the gaits of Hall of Famers Bobby Orr and Paul Coffey. Says MacLean of Bouwmeester, 'He's such a great skater that he glides better than most people skate.'" - Kostya Kennedy, Sports Illustrated, January 10, 2000

The Next Phenomenon: Jay Bouwmeester - Hockey's Future

The Next Phenomenon: Jay Bouwmeester
By Trenton Allen
April 6th, 2000

When you see this kid play, you know you are seeing greatness. He can skate with the best of them, make tape-to-tape passes blindfolded, and his vision of the ice and the play that is unfolding is unsurpassed. Who am I talking about? Who else. Jay Bouwmeester.

This 16 year old star in the making of the Medicine Hat Tigers has just finished his first season in the WHL. Few defensemen before have stepped in at his age and done as much as this young man. Quarterbacked the powerplay, got to play some shorthanded situations, and was often a catalyst on a team that many nights was severely lacking in the offensive department.

...

Probably the best part of watching him play is that you get the felling that, as good as he is, he’s capable of so much more. When ever he gets the puck you get on the edge of your seat not know if your going to see just another dump-in, or watch Bouwmeester make a brilliant end-to-end rush. Probably the best thing about watching him play, and the worst thing for all other teams in the WHL, is that you know that he’s only scratched the surface of what he can do.

...

"Probably the best part of watching him play is that you get the felling[sic] that, as good as he is, he’s capable of so much more. When ever he gets the puck you get on the edge of your seat not know if your going to see just another dump-in, or watch Bouwmeester make a brilliant end-to-end rush. Probably the best thing about watching him play, and the worst thing for all other teams in the WHL, is that you know that he’s only scratched the surface of what he can do." - Trenton Allen, Hockey's Future, April 6, 2000

Bouwmeester's Star Ready to Shine - Hockey's Future

Bouwmeester’s Star Ready to Shine
By Jeff Bromley
April 1st, 2002

It’s been a hockey story eighteen years in the making and although the plot has been it’s juiciest the past three or four winters, the book is within just months of it’s climax, at least of volume one. This story is about a kid out of Edmonton who they say can skate as effortlessly as water flowing down a river, has all the modern tools of the game in his shot and natural size and seemingly can control or change the outcome of game if he so desires.

His name is Jay Bouwmeester (pronounced Boo-meester) and this year is his official breaking out, or rather the breaking in party to possible stardom in the NHL.

Ever since the Medicine Hat Tigers drafted the kid that had many scrambling how to pronounce his vowel-filled last name with the first overall pick in the 1998 WHL Bantam Draft, Bouwmeester has been high on the radar of every NHL Scout on the continent. And from game one with the Tigers the defensive prodigy that had scouts dropping their donuts and spilling their coffees did not disappoint, nor would he for the next three WHL seasons, one more than most highly-touted draft picks get because of two days.

...

Pegged to go number one in the 2001 Draft for the last three years, you might think the pressure could get to a teenager treated like the second coming of Coffey or perhaps even Orr. The reserved Bouwmeester however thinks otherwise.

...

"And from game one with the Tigers the defensive prodigy that had scouts dropping their donuts and spilling their coffees did not disappoint, nor would he for the next three WHL seasons, one more than most highly-touted draft picks get because of two days.... Pegged to go number one in the 2001 Draft for the last three years, you might think the pressure could get to a teenager treated like the second coming of Coffey or perhaps even Orr. The reserved Bouwmeester however thinks otherwise." - Jeff Bromley, April 1, 2002

It really doesn't matter where a player was relative to his peers at the age of 16. All players develop at different rates, hence why some want the draft-eligible age to be changed to 19. If a player starts to underperform, there is no reason to think that others can't pass him.

Players are ranked based on where they are at the time of their selection window and what they project to be from that point on. Whatever they did at 15 or 16 is less relevant than where they are relative to their peers in the months leading up to their selection.

Neither Spezza nor Bouwmeester were selected first overall.

Ilya Kovalchuk surpassed Spezza in 2001. Rick Nash and Kari Lehtonen were selected ahead of Bouwmeester in 2002.

The last first-overall pick not to immediately play in the NHL was Chris Phillips in 1996.

The last first-overall forward not to play a significant amount of his rookie season in the NHL because he was not yet developed enough for his team was Joe Murphy in 1986. Mike Modano, Mats Sundin, and Eric Lindros all skipped their post-draft seasons in the NHL for non-play-related reasons: contract issues, military obligations, and a holdout, respectively.

In the case of Modano, he signed his contract in January 1989, thus was not allowed to join the North Stars until his junior season was over.

I could see Jack playing in the NCAA next season like Clayton Keller did. Mitch Marner, meanwhile, returned to his junior team after he was drafted. Based on Hughes' play so far, he's not ahead of either of them at the same point in their draft seasons. Marner was torching the OHL at a 2.0 PPG rate. Keller was ahead of where Hughes is in their respective draft seasons with the USNTDP.