Buffalo Bills: Offseason - Free Agency: Trade for Antonio Brown is Dead

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cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
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So they have done well in a totally different situation playing in a totally different scheme/style of offence.

They have benefitted from the likes of Evans/Allen drawing the oppositions attention /best defensive players.

They have probably not played the number of snaps a typical #1 would & certainly wouldn't have played the same type of role.

Obvious to assume then that either would come to the Bills & tear it up....

Not saying its impossible but for sure it's unlikely. And I don't see that as being worth a massive chunk of cap.

I'd honestly rather just trade for Antonio Brown. At least you know what your getting for your money.

Given the opportunity, without Keenan Allen around, Williams had a 1000 yard season. Humphries climbed from a UDFA to a #2 workload and was able to take advantage of every opponent along the way. They demand a higher workload then they're currently paid for and the proof is right in front of you.

Receivers are not scheme dependent like D-linemen. They either develop chemistry with the QB or they don't, and Tyrell Williams is basically a prototype of what everyone is saying Josh Allen needs. Big catch radius, contested catcher, good speed. Humphries as a slot guy is more of a toss up but there's no reason to believe that Allen can work just fine with a guy like Jones or McKenzie but not Humphries.

The Bills completely lack depth at the position, and turning away talent because its not Antonio Brown is a far worse strategy than overpaying a couple million for a guy when you have one of the largest gaping talent pools and payrolls in the league, with $5 million currently allocated to the receiver position. Not to mention the fact that Brown would cost multiple quality assets compared to zero for a free agent.

Zay Jones was able to rack up 652 and 7 TDs with a 55% catch rate, on one of the worst offenses in the league. Humphries and Williams will give you far better numbers given the same opportunity and have already proven so. If you have some actual evidence to backup the notion that they would fail, then I'd love to see it. Otherwise I'd like to talk about something else.
 
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cramdizzl

cram it
Jan 5, 2012
2,452
248
Western NY
2nd pro season - Zay Jones = 56 Rec. 652 Yds. 7 TD
2nd pro season - Robert Woods = 65 Rec. 699 Yds. 5 TD (Year 6 is first with more than 65 catches and 800 Yds., still hasn't surpassed 6 TDs)
2nd pro season - Adam Humphries = 55 Rec. 622 Yds. 2 TD (Year 4 is first with more than 61 catches and 800 Yds., still hasn't surpassed 5 TDs)
2nd pro season - Golden Tate = 35 Rec. 382 Yds. 3 TD (Year 4 is first with more than 68 catches and 700 Yds. had 7 TDs once in career)

Jones - 102 targets, 56 rec, 54.9% catch rate, 11.6 yards per catch
Woods - 104 targets, 65 rec, 62.5% catch rate, 10.8 ypc
Humphries - 83 targets, 55 rec, 66.3% catch rate, 11.3 ypc - (73.5% and 72.4% catch rates in 2 seasons since)
Tyrell Williams 2nd year- 119 targets,69 rec, 1059 yds, 7 TD, 58% catch rate, 15.3 ypc
Tate - in seasons with 99+ targets, 64.6%, 68.8%, 70.3%, 67.4%, 76.7%, 65.5% catch rates.

Not yet feeling great about Jones. Pretty dismal catch rate while getting the majority of his receptions in short/intermediate areas. He should be a lot closer to Tate's numbers as a YAC receiver. Tyrell Williams in his 2nd year had only a slightly better catch rate than Jones, but was getting a ton of his receptions deep down the field as shown by his 15.3 ypc. That's still where he does most of his work, but his catch rate has improved. 16.9 ypc/62.3% and 15.9 ypc/63.1% since.

Also, Foster this year - 44 tgt, 27 rec, 541 yds, 3 TD, 20.0 ypc, 61.4% catch rate. Gotta love that development in the 2nd half of the season. He passed Zay and never looked back.
 

Husko

Registered User
Jun 30, 2006
15,275
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Greenwich, CT
I think this is exactly where they should be looking to find another RB. Would be great to get a Tarik Cohen type in the mid rounds. Not wasting several million on a guy like Coleman.

Who else do you have an eye on as potential sleepers this year? I remember you were high on Jaylen Samuels last year?
Yeah Samuels was my guy last year. I honestly haven’t done a ton of digging yet. I really just want a speed infusion in some way shape or form. Anyone that is fast but will drop because he’s too small tops my list.
 

Digable5

Buffalo Proton (Positively Charged)
Feb 23, 2004
5,107
1,026
West Seneca
Jones - 102 targets, 56 rec, 54.9% catch rate, 11.6 yards per catch
Woods - 104 targets, 65 rec, 62.5% catch rate, 10.8 ypc
Humphries - 83 targets, 55 rec, 66.3% catch rate, 11.3 ypc - (73.5% and 72.4% catch rates in 2 seasons since)
Tyrell Williams 2nd year- 119 targets,69 rec, 1059 yds, 7 TD, 58% catch rate, 15.3 ypc
Tate - in seasons with 99+ targets, 64.6%, 68.8%, 70.3%, 67.4%, 76.7%, 65.5% catch rates.

Not yet feeling great about Jones. Pretty dismal catch rate while getting the majority of his receptions in short/intermediate areas. He should be a lot closer to Tate's numbers as a YAC receiver. Tyrell Williams in his 2nd year had only a slightly better catch rate than Jones, but was getting a ton of his receptions deep down the field as shown by his 15.3 ypc. That's still where he does most of his work, but his catch rate has improved. 16.9 ypc/62.3% and 15.9 ypc/63.1% since.

Also, Foster this year - 44 tgt, 27 rec, 541 yds, 3 TD, 20.0 ypc, 61.4% catch rate. Gotta love that development in the 2nd half of the season. He passed Zay and never looked back.
Personally I think catch rate has too many variables to consider it a great indicator of ability. We should know from watching the games that the receiver is not necessarily at fault for the “target” not being caught.

Also, I think calling Jones a short/intermediate YAC receiver is a bit misleading. How many “short” throws did Allen even attempt? That is if he was even QB for most of the incompleted targets. Certainly having 4 different starting QBs could have been a factor in both quality of throws, placement, timing, etc... Not to mention having no running game or protection to aid in the receivers separation, but I digress.

My point with the stats I posted is that the Bills aren’t necessarily lacking talent but experience. Sure that would indicate the need for a veteran FA (which I never argued against) but it doesn’t mean you have to go out and use huge amounts of money or draft picks on the position. Sign someone to be #1 if you think they are worthy (T. Williams?), Foster would be a good #2, Jones isn’t a bad #3, McKenzie is a good utility option and D. Williams and the draft pick are wild cards.
 

Rowley Birkin

Registered User
Oct 31, 2004
10,655
3,809
Just did the senior bowl. A few wr’s caught my eye

I don't watch college football - I start to YouTube scout about this time of year.

A few guys I follow all say this is a very deep WR class. Hence why I'd like to see the Bills either get that top end OT or trade down from 9.
 

26CornerBlitz

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Apr 14, 2012
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With the Super Bowl around the corner, that means the entire league will start to focus on free agency as soon as the weekend is complete and a new champion is crowned. Joe Buscaglia and Matthew Fairburn discuss, at length, the possible prioritization of positions for the Bills in 2019 free agency when considering the classes available, the value of the position to the team, and what good spending is in today's NFL. Plus, the results of the play-In round of the 'Come on, Darlene!' bracket is in. To vote in the first round, click here: www.surveymonkey.com/r/LWRFKXR
 

26CornerBlitz

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NFL HONORS

Meet this Year's Hall of Fame Class
The next group of Hall of Famers is official: See the eight former players and contributors who have been voted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

 

whiplash

Registered User
Jan 6, 2006
6,447
490
NYC
Missed the explanation, how was that a defenseless player hit if he didn't lead with his helmet or launch himself?
 

whiplash

Registered User
Jan 6, 2006
6,447
490
NYC
Can't hit a receiver in the head or neck area before he becomes a runner. It's pretty ridiculous.
They called it on 56 and I was like oh, i missed it... (Edit; to be clear still think it's garbage, since he just wrapped him up)

Also, somehow the Pats are down 2 timeouts in Q1 and that is going to be part of a genius Belicheck plan...

0 points from two trips to the Rams side. This isn't sustainable. Rams gotta score
 
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