Speculation: Bucky agrees to 6 years...who's next?

[KingBogo]

Knowing and caring are two different animals Im confident Chevy will get done what he needs to with Trouba. Im honestly more excited to find out about Jmo's contract than Trouba's contract details.

I'm guessing Morrissey's deal is in a bit of limbo at this time. Lots of moving parts with the arb eligible guys and the option of bridging him is in Chevy's back pocket depending on how things shake out.

 

[ffh]

I'm guessing Morrissey's deal is in a bit of limbo at this time. Lots of moving parts with the arb eligible guys and the option of bridging him is in Chevy's back pocket depending on how things shake out.

I have no idea why chevy would want to bridge Morrissey other than he will ask more then he is worth. he should not cost you more then slavin which was 7x5.3. that is more then affordable. he absolutely should be signed long term this summer regardless of anything other then wanting more then he is worth.

 

[scelaton]

Pavelec was coming off a .906 season. He has never been near the top of the league. Like I said the best rise, Pavelec was never the top. Many (like myself) said signing Pavelec was a beyond stupid idea at the signing time. He was mediocre at best at every level. And was not good in NHL beyond his rookie year and the Jets playoff year, mostly based on two hot streaks in both those years. He always projected as a backup just Jets and many fans didn't see it, many like myself, garret and others saw it coming who've looked at the stats. Bishop has .924, .916, .926, .908, .916 in his full NHL seasons. I mean he has consistently been above league average. Signed for a very reasonable contract. Mason has .916, .901, .901, .894, .901, .917, .928, .918, .908, .906. He has mostly been below average with a couple good and one great season. Reasonable for a guy who has varied between a 1A/1B goalie. Typical. Not sure your point?

Interestingly, the vast majority of fans and posters supported the Pav signing at the time, then became resentful after enduring mediocre goaltending for years. The signing was a mistake, but a learning experience for Chevy. Not everyone has learned as he did--here's why.
Some people are suffering what I have previously termed PTSD (Pavelecian Traumatic Stress Disorder). The symptoms were exacerbated by Mason and now the they are unwilling to trust any expensive goalie contract, ignoring the fact that Helle has a remarkably consistent record of excellence by goalie standards.
The goalies are voodoo meme is partly how we rationalize the Pavelec decision, and partially a reflection of the inherent inconsistency in goaltending--season to season and intra-season. But the inconsistency is just noise --great goalies show a great body of work over a career, with some bad intermixed, and bad goalies are the obverse.

 

[KingBogo]

I have no idea why chevy would want to bridge Morrissey other than he will ask more then he is worth. he should not cost you more then slavin which was 7x5.3. that is more then affordable. he absolutely should be signed long term this summer regardless of anything other then wanting more then he is worth.

Chevy might not want to bridge Morrissey, but after he gets all the arb guys signed he may not have enough cap space left to sign him long term. IMO as a group we under estimate what Lowry will be looking for. Doesn't mean Chevy won't then move out someone to free up the space to sign Morrissey but those are moving parts that have to be addressed first. Also we have no idea if Trouba really wants to sign, so Chevy needs to hold onto cap space to keep options open for a trade. Morrissey isn't going anywhere and they only need to get him done going into camp.

 

[robertocarlos]

JoMo. He takes a sweetheart deal too

Why would he fold? Does he not know he's the straw that stirs the Trouba drink?

 

[ffh]

Chevy might not want to bridge Morrissey, but after he gets all the arb guys signed he may not have enough cap space left to sign him long term. IMO as a group we under estimate what Lowry will be looking for. Doesn't mean Chevy won't then move out someone to free up the space to sign Morrissey but those are moving parts that have to be addressed first. Also we have no idea if Trouba really wants to sign, so Chevy needs to hold onto cap space to keep options open for a trade. Morrissey isn't going anywhere and they only need to get him done going into camp.

chevy sounded confident he could sign everybody. my guess would be that's with the big 4 rfa's getting long term deals and everybody else getting 1 0r 2 year deals. now if lowry want more then the jets were planning for on a long term deal I would rather they sign Morrissey long term and lowry taken to arbitration where chevy said its all about comps and would be way less then what he wants. i'm sorry but core players need to be locked up for max contracts and for as little as possible. why would we want to add 1 or 2 million for 7 or 8 years to a future Morrissey contract.

 

[KingBogo]

chevy sounded confident he could sign everybody. my guess would be that's with the big 4 rfa's getting long term deals and everybody else getting 1 0r 2 year deals. now if lowry want more then the jets were planning for on a long term deal I would rather they sign Morrissey long term and lowry taken to arbitration where chevy said its all about comps and would be way less then what he wants. i'm sorry but core players need to be locked up for max contracts and for as little as possible. why would we want to add 1 or 2 million for 7 or 8 years to a future Morrissey contract.

You can play around with the numbers on the edges but even being conservative a long term deal to Morrissey blows us well past the needed performance bonus cushion we will require. Not saying he isn't worth going long term with, but it will require moving out at least 1 other mid range contract. Maybe Chevy goes this route and I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I'd guess he'd want to know for sure how much room he needs to clear after the arb process is over.

 

[surixon]

You can play around with the numbers on the edges but even being conservative a long term deal to Morrissey blows us well past the needed performance bonus cushion we will require. Not saying he isn't worth going long term with, but it will require moving out at least 1 other mid range contract. Maybe Chevy goes this route and I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I'd guess he'd want to know for sure how much room he needs to clear after the arb process is over.

Not by my calculations it doesn't. Unless all of Lowry, Trouba and our depth players get more then expected. But I do agree that Chevy is likely waiting to see how much wiggle room he has after the arb guys before finalizing JoMo.

 

[KingBogo]

Not by my calculations it doesn't. Unless all of Lowry, Trouba and our depth players get more then expected. But I do agree that Chevy is likely waiting to see how much wiggle room he has after the arb guys before finalizing JoMo.

I was penciling in $6.5 for Trouba and $3.5 for Lowry and then approx $1 M each for all the depth guys.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jmo will be signed next. should be a friendly contract to work out. He is going to be a stud. I think Trouba will be one of the last signings. Could be totally wrong as well lol

Trouba will have to be signed soon if they are going to avoid the arb hearing. I don't think hearing the Jets slagging him before the arbitrator will go down well with JT. There is a delay between the hearing and the arbitrator's decision when they can still agree on a contract. But that hearing should be avoided if at all possible.

 

[surixon]

I was penciling in $6.5 for Trouba and $3.5 for Lowry and then approx $1 M each for all the depth guys.

Ah your higher for Lowry then I am. I'm also wondering if we see Trouba around 5.75-6 on a 4-5 year deal now. I have a sneaky suspicion that is where it ends up.

 

[Whileee]

Chevy might not want to bridge Morrissey, but after he gets all the arb guys signed he may not have enough cap space left to sign him long term. IMO as a group we under estimate what Lowry will be looking for. Doesn't mean Chevy won't then move out someone to free up the space to sign Morrissey but those are moving parts that have to be addressed first. Also we have no idea if Trouba really wants to sign, so Chevy needs to hold onto cap space to keep options open for a trade. Morrissey isn't going anywhere and they only need to get him done going into camp.

Yup. Devin Shore got $2.3m AAV over 2 years. Lowry is going to get more than some seem to think.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

chevy sounded confident he could sign everybody. my guess would be that's with the big 4 rfa's getting long term deals and everybody else getting 1 0r 2 year deals. now if lowry want more then the jets were planning for on a long term deal I would rather they sign Morrissey long term and lowry taken to arbitration where chevy said its all about comps and would be way less then what he wants. i'm sorry but core players need to be locked up for max contracts and for as little as possible. why would we want to add 1 or 2 million for 7 or 8 years to a future Morrissey contract.

Of course Chevy sounded confident. Do you think he would tell you if he wasn't? If they lock up all the big RFA's long term there isn't enough cap space to go around, even if all the others get 1 or 2 year deals. Nobody ever expected more than 1 or 2 year deals for everybody else.

He needs to go one step at a time, watching what is gone and what is left. Signing JoMo before he knows what Trouba is going to cost ties his hands unnecessarily.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can play around with the numbers on the edges but even being conservative a long term deal to Morrissey blows us well past the needed performance bonus cushion we will require. Not saying he isn't worth going long term with, but it will require moving out at least 1 other mid range contract. Maybe Chevy goes this route and I wouldn't be opposed to it, but I'd guess he'd want to know for sure how much room he needs to clear after the arb process is over.

Lowry is about the only 'mid range' guy we have. Everybody else is either high or low, at least for this year. The Jets are a much weaker team when Lowry is not in the lineup or when he cannot hit because of a shoulder injury.

 

[KingBogo]

Ah your higher for Lowry then I am. I'm also wondering if we see Trouba around 5.75-6 on a 4-5 year deal now. I have a sneaky suspicion that is where it ends up.

I've been quietly worried about Lowry's ask. We know how important the organization sees him and he may be saying "how about my long term deal'? I could see something like $3.5 - 3.75 AAV over 4-5 years.

 

[Dr Amazing204]

it would be awesome if morrisey signs a 4-4.5 mill for 5 years or something

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not by my calculations it doesn't. Unless all of Lowry, Trouba and our depth players get more then expected. But I do agree that Chevy is likely waiting to see how much wiggle room he has after the arb guys before finalizing JoMo.

All we have signed so far are Helle and Morrow. Both have come in above the numbers I had been using. Not by a lot, but if this trend continues we can't sign JoMo long term and keep everybody even for this year alone. Then we have a real problem next year.

 

[Peggy]

Honestly not sure what your issue is. Of course it is a bit of a gamble. All NHL contracts are guaranteed but the players are not so they are all a gamble. That's just a fact of life.

When you get a player demonstrating that level of performance you have to pay him. This is slightly more than I was hoping for but by every measure we can find it is market value.

I just don't like to gamble
and if I'm going to gamble I'll like my odds in more of my favour
the lower the contract, the greater the value


6 years can end up being a long time
I think 4 years is better for a goalie
or what do I know. it's just an opinion
I just feel like I've seen goalie signings like this and they end up being the most expensive contract because no one wants an over paid goalie(not saying he is atm)

building a team is more than just acquiring players, but being able to hit them under your salary cap

and 6 mil eats up some room

 

[Peggy]

Which plug, in particular? Don't forget to add ~ a mil to replace the plug.

doesn't matter who if we can't afford the other. getting jmo long term is a priority

 

[ffh]

Of course Chevy sounded confident. Do you think he would tell you if he wasn't? If they lock up all the big RFA's long term there isn't enough cap space to go around, even if all the others get 1 or 2 year deals. Nobody ever expected more than 1 or 2 year deals for everybody else.

He needs to go one step at a time, watching what is gone and what is left. Signing JoMo before he knows what Trouba is going to cost ties his hands unnecessarily.

no it doesn't need to go 1 step at a time. he is a core piece that needs to be signed long term. there is no well we are not sure what he is worth as there was with trouba. as a matter of fact overpaying for trouba now wont help with Morrissey signing a good contract. he is our present top pairing ld. should 4th line players get priority with a long term contract over top pairing dmen. trouba and Morrissey need long term contracts. everyone else can get what ever is left over and if we need to make a trade then that's what they have to do. you don't sign all the 4th line players and pb guys and say well there isn't enough to pay Morrissey. you sign Morrissey and then what is left you use sign lowry to a long term contract and everyone else to 1 or 2 year deals. Morrissey 2 years from now on the pp getting points can command around 7.5 million a year as apposed to mid 5's and around 6 on a long term deal now. not worth not signing him long term now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I've been quietly worried about Lowry's ask. We know how important the organization sees him and he may be saying "how about my long term deal'? I could see something like $3.5 - 3.75 AAV over 4-5 years.

I've budgeted 3.2 for Lowry with no term specified. I'd could see 10 mil over a 3 year term. Of course, that would continue the trend of everyone coming in just a little higher than my number.

 

[Flair Hay]

Personally, I think Trouba will be 4 or 5 years, if they get a deal.

That honestly seems like a fair compromise. We get a few extra years of service from him. He doesn't get stuck with a lower salary the next couple of years. And he still gets to make an even bigger contract next time.

I'd even be okay with a 3 year deal to keep the AAV down. At least that way he could traded, if we wanted and get something decent back. And we would have lots of time to find his replacement.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just don't like to gamble
and if I'm going to gamble I'll like my odds in more of my favour
the lower the contract, the greater the value


6 years can end up being a long time
I think 4 years is better for a goalie
or what do I know. it's just an opinion
I just feel like I've seen goalie signings like this and they end up being the most expensive contract because no one wants an over paid goalie(not saying he is atm)

building a team is more than just acquiring players, but being able to hit them under your salary cap

and 6 mil eats up some room

The thing is that every contract requires 2 parties to agree. Chevy doesn't get to dictate terms. They have to be negotiated. Who here would not have preferred 4 years at 3.5 mil? Helle would not sign that. He would go to arbitration and if Jets continue to try to short change him, he would leave at the first opportunity. An underpaid employee is an unhappy employee.

 

[Whileee]

I've been quietly worried about Lowry's ask. We know how important the organization sees him and he may be saying "how about my long term deal'? I could see something like $3.5 - 3.75 AAV over 4-5 years.

The only thing is that Lowry struggled with injuries last year that might temper the ask. I think he's an important part of this team, that has a lot of high scoring forwards that aren't "hard" to play against, but not as many really tough guys to play against. Lowry fills a big part of that role, as does Trouba on D.

 

[KingBogo]

I've budgeted 3.2 for Lowry with no term specified. I'd could see 10 mil over a 3 year term. Of course, that would continue the trend of everyone coming in just a little higher than my number.

I'm guessing Lowry comes in over a 3.2 AAV. My call is $14 M over 4 years for an AAV of $3.5 M.