Speculation: Bucky agrees to 6 years...who's next?

[DRW204]

so is aav is over 6mil for one good season?
bad signing imo. unless he plays as good as he does for 6 years straight
but it's goaltending and unlikely

I dont care if it's penny pinching. I would rather save .75mil for another signing

it's a fair deal if you're looking at comparables

 

[surixon]

I wouldn't give Tanev a dime over league minimum personally. However I think the Jets overpay since they seem to continually overestimate his impact, IMO.

The big question mark remains Trouba. If he wants over 7 and is firm with that, I just don't see how the Jets keep him past this year (I don't think his arb award would be that high). If he comes in closer to 6 they can probably bridge Morrissey. I think we'll see the other signings in quick order after Trouba gets his deal done one way or the other.

If he comes in around 6 i think they can go long term with JoMo depending on how some of the other deals shake out. I will post a revised calculation tonight.

 

[Peggy]

it's a fair deal if you're looking at comparables

I've looked at some of the numbers before
I kind of expected this tbh. 6 mil seems to he like the magic number

I just dont like laying goalies a lot of money
too inconsistent

and like I said I would've liked to save that .76 percent for another signing

 

[Holden Caulfield]

I've looked at some of the numbers before
I kind of expected this tbh. 6 mil seems to he like the magic number

I just dont like laying goalies a lot of money
too inconsistent

and like I said I would've liked to save that .76 percent for another signing

You have to pay for a starting calibre goalie. The alternative is wasting your window on trying out different guys that you end up overpaying for (ie Dallas). You'd rather pay 9 million next year for Bobrovsky? 6-8 for a Varlamov, Howard, Talbot IF none of those get signed by their own teams? Roll the dice on a 35+ guy (Rinne, Smith, Miller) or an unproven guy (too early to say but we've seen it be guys like Darling, Talbot, Greiss, Lack in years past with varying success).

The Jets had no choice. Hellebuyck is real quality goalie. We consistently see the same goalies near the top of the league despite the claims of goalies are "voodoo". Yes goalies have cold streaks, even some guys have bad years, but there's no "voodoo" among the best goalies. Hellebuyck has the track record and NHL success. This is a fair deal for all sides.

 

[Peggy]

You have to pay for a starting calibre goalie. The alternative is wasting your window on trying out different guys that you end up overpaying for (ie Dallas). You'd rather pay 9 million next year for Bobrovsky? 6-8 for a Varlamov, Howard, Talbot IF none of those get signed by their own teams? Roll the dice on a 35+ guy (Rinne, Smith, Miller) or an unproven guy (too early to say but we've seen it be guys like Darling, Talbot, Greiss, Lack in years past with varying success).

The Jets had no choice. Hellebuyck is real quality goalie. We consistently see the same goalies near the top of the league despite the claims of goalies are "voodoo". Yes goalies have cold streaks, even some guys have bad years, but there's no "voodoo" among the best goalies. Hellebuyck has the track record and NHL success. This is a fair deal for all sides.

like I said. I expected around 6
doesn't mean I agree with the philosophy. helle also plays behind a good team now
and when Winnipeg looked bad against Vegas
so did helle

my argument is that. the little extra they giving to helle. should've gone to a player. not a Goalie who's had one good season

 

[DRW204]

I've looked at some of the numbers before
I kind of expected this tbh. 6 mil seems to he like the magic number

I just dont like laying goalies a lot of money
too inconsistent

and like I said I would've liked to save that .76 percent for another signing

assuming you're referring to Andersen as the comparable at 7% of caphit. Helle is the better and younger goalie.

 

[Peggy]

assuming you're referring to Andersen as the comparable at 7% of caphit. Helle is the better and younger goalie.

helle isn't "better" than Anderson
helle was better than Anderson last year and could ge evtter for the rest of his career
but in not gonna use statements like "is better" until he consistently keeps it up

look at Ben bishop's contract cheaper and better save percentage
looks gross lol

 

[Psych0dad]

I hope Morrissey is next, the order of importance. Then Trouba.

 

[surixon]

New projections:

Forwards
Line	Left Wing	Center	Right Wing	Total
1	Connor, Kyle	Scheifele, Mark	Laine, Patrick
	1,775,000	6,125,000	3,575,000	11,475,000
2	Ehlers, Nick	Little, Brian	Wheeler, Blake
	6,000,000	5,291,666	5,600,000	16,891,666
3	Perrault, Mathiau	Roslovic, Jack	Dano, Marko
	4,130,000	1,106,666	850,000	6,086,666
4	Copp, Andew	Lowry, Adam	Tanev, Brandon
	1,000,000	2,700,000	1,000,000	4,700,000
Extras	Petan, Nik
	750,000			750,000
Froward total				39,903,332
Defense
Pair	Left Defense	Right Defense
1	Morrissey, Josh	Trouba, Jacob
	5,000,000	6,500,000		11,500,000
2	Myers, Tyler	Byfuglien, Dustin
	5,500,000	7,600,000		13,100,000
3	Kulikov, Dmitry	Poolman, Tucker
	4,333,333	800,000		5,133,333
Extras	Chariot, Ben	Morrow, Joe
	1,400,000	1,000,000		2,400,000
Defense Total				32,133,333
Goalies	Starter	Backup
	Hellebuyck, Connor	Brossoit, Lauent
	6,166,667	650,000		6,816,667
Buyout	Stuart, Marc
	583,333			583,333
Grand Total				79,436,665
Estimated Cap Ceiling				79,500,000
Cap space remaining				63,335

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

We could sign JoMo to a 5 million deal with Trouba at 6.5 million. If Trouba is cheaper then we have more room to ink JoMo.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I'm thinking they will sign Trouba and Lowry first, then see if they have enough left so sign Morissey long term or if they have to they will bridge him.

 

[Whileee]

Herein lies the problem. I think both of your guys estimates are about right. Let's say Chevy signs those. Then adds Tanev for 1.5x2 (like I said I think they overpay for Tanev). Using the numbers I posted above this leaves 3.85 million for Morrissey. Can they bridge Morrissey for that? Maybe. Can they sign him long term for that? I doubt it. Honestly 6.6 might even be low for Trouba and every dollar pushed towards Trouba is another taken away from Morrissey. If they go above 7 for Trouba I don't know how they sign Morrissey.

This is why I laughed when everyone complained that Jets didn't sign Statsny or that they moved out Mason and Armia for Statsny. No way the roster works as is with Statsny even with trading Mason and Armia. Just no way.

I agree that the Mason / Armia move was mainly to free up necessary cap space to sign their own players, but I think that they might be able to squeeze in everyone if they get Morrissey for around 5.2M and Trouba for around 6.25M.

But I also think that if they sign Trouba, they might end up trading Myers. Another option might be to trade Perreault, with Petan, Dano, Vesalainen waiting in the "wings" to fill that spot. I have a feeling that the Jets might not be finished clearly cap space, assuming that they are able to come to long-term agreements with Morrissey and Trouba.

I also think there's a slim chance that the Jets will move Trouba in a big deal that nets them a lesser and cheaper D, but with good future assets, too.

 

[Whileee]

if its anything less than 6 years, it's a fail on Chevy's part

Chevy can't force anyone to sign a deal they don't like, so how is it a "fail" for Chevy if Trouba refuses to sign a long-term deal? If Trouba refuses to sign a long-term deal, then I think it's a fine alternative for Chevy to get a lower AAV on a shorter contract and have Trouba contribute over the next 2-3 years, and then trade him.

 

[Georgetown Al]

Morrissey cause now that Helle has signed we need one more sweet of deal signing in order to entice this guy to sign a long term deal...

 

[Whileee]

You have to pay for a starting calibre goalie. The alternative is wasting your window on trying out different guys that you end up overpaying for (ie Dallas). You'd rather pay 9 million next year for Bobrovsky? 6-8 for a Varlamov, Howard, Talbot IF none of those get signed by their own teams? Roll the dice on a 35+ guy (Rinne, Smith, Miller) or an unproven guy (too early to say but we've seen it be guys like Darling, Talbot, Greiss, Lack in years past with varying success).

The Jets had no choice. Hellebuyck is real quality goalie. We consistently see the same goalies near the top of the league despite the claims of goalies are "voodoo". Yes goalies have cold streaks, even some guys have bad years, but there's no "voodoo" among the best goalies. Hellebuyck has the track record and NHL success. This is a fair deal for all sides.

Good post. Bang on...

 

[Georgetown Al]

Agree there's not a chance in hell McKenzie makes the team. Also debatable whether Broissit is the backup, although as of today he's the favourite.

With that said, inserting the more probable Petan in McKenzie's place wouldn't change things much. Neither would opting for Comrie in net. Neither will sign for much over what their capfriendly placeholders are making.

Bonus's of $3.7 are a factor and should have been included in my OP. I'll likely edit that right away.

Did you listen to what helle had to say today? Broissit is the backup and Helle is stoked!

 

[buggs]

Herein lies the problem. I think both of your guys estimates are about right. Let's say Chevy signs those. Then adds Tanev for 1.5x2 (like I said I think they overpay for Tanev). Using the numbers I posted above this leaves 3.85 million for Morrissey. Can they bridge Morrissey for that? Maybe. Can they sign him long term for that? I doubt it. Honestly 6.6 might even be low for Trouba and every dollar pushed towards Trouba is another taken away from Morrissey. If they go above 7 for Trouba I don't know how they sign Morrissey.

This is why I laughed when everyone complained that Jets didn't sign Statsny or that they moved out Mason and Armia for Statsny. No way the roster works as is with Statsny even with trading Mason and Armia. Just no way.

Pure speculation but any chance the Jets know they're going to get LTIR room from Kulikov? Do things start to work better if that happens? And for that matter, since I'm not entirely clear on how the cap works in detail, do they even get cap relief if Kulikov is on LTIR?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Pure speculation but any chance the Jets know they're going to get LTIR room from Kulikov? Do things start to work better if that happens? And for that matter, since I'm not entirely clear on how the cap works in detail, do they even get cap relief if Kulikov is on LTIR?

Putting Kulikov on LTIR for cap relief reasons is a bad bad bad BAD idea for the Jets. LTIR doesn't give you more cap space. It can let you exceed the cap by the amount you are over (up to the value of the contract put on LTIR). The key difference here is you can't "bank" cap space. The end result of this would be that any performance bonuses gained by the players on ELC's would carry over. So if they approached the cap to the point where they would need to use Kulikov on LTIR it means that all of that 3.7 million in ELC bonuses (assuming they hit them, but considering the two biggest are Laine and Connor who hit them last year IIRC) would carry over into next season. So the Jets would have 3.7 less in cap room next year. This would only matter if the Jets exceed the cap without the bonuses, so it would change all the calculations. Putting Kulikov on LTIR when under the cap wouldn't make any difference though.

 

[buggs]

Putting Kulikov on LTIR is a bad bad bad BAD idea for the Jets. LTIR doesn't give you more cap space. It can let you exceed the cap by the amount you are over (up to the value of the contract put on LTIR). The key difference here is you can't "bank" cap space. The end result of this would be that any performance bonuses gained by the players on ELC's would carry over. So if they approached the cap to the point where they would need to use Kulikov on LTIR it means that all of that 3.7 million in ELC bonuses (assuming they hit them, but considering the two biggest are Laine and Connor who hit them last year IIRC) would carry over into next season. So the Jets would have 3.7 less in cap room next year.

Thanks for the explanation. Wishful thinking on my part.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

like I said. I expected around 6
doesn't mean I agree with the philosophy. helle also plays behind a good team now
and when Winnipeg looked bad against Vegas
so did helle

my argument is that. the little extra they giving to helle. should've gone to a player. not a Goalie who's had one good season

You're right, the Jets are a good team, but Hellebuyck is also a very good goalie and each complements the other perfectly.

The Jets entire defensive structure requires a big bodied goalie who's going to absorb shots from the perimeter. Their considerable size advantage & having active sticks are a perfect match for Hellebuyck's game...being big and positionally sound.

I'm not sure what series you were watching, but Vegas was dominated by the Jets in every manner other than the final score. Had the previous 7 game series not taking so much out of them, Vegas quick responses with untimely goals wouldn't have been so demoralizing & I'm sure the team would have rallied with far different final results.

A lot was learned on ice by our young team. Next season they're taking home the Presidents Trophy & not looking back until the cup is theirs.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Pure speculation but any chance the Jets know they're going to get LTIR room from Kulikov? Do things start to work better if that happens? And for that matter, since I'm not entirely clear on how the cap works in detail, do they even get cap relief if Kulikov is on LTIR?

All this talk about Kulikov being put on LTIR is horse-hockey.

He's having his first surgery & a full recovery is expected, perhaps as early as the first day of training camp.

 

[SUX2BU]

Well, I voted for morrissey but clicked petan by mistake

Petan could sign a two year deal so I’ll run with that now ...

 

[drumzan]

Lipon. Why not!

 

[pateramus]

I was actually hoping Trouba was going to be last. He will want absolute top dollar and will try every trick to get it. this will set the bar higher price wise and other players will use that as their measuring stick to figure out where there contract should be at.

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

Goldberg

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wouldn't give Tanev a dime over league minimum personally. However I think the Jets overpay since they seem to continually overestimate his impact, IMO.

The big question mark remains Trouba. If he wants over 7 and is firm with that, I just don't see how the Jets keep him past this year (I don't think his arb award would be that high). If he comes in closer to 6 they can probably bridge Morrissey. I think we'll see the other signings in quick order after Trouba gets his deal done one way or the other.

I agree they overpay Tanev - but I think that means ~950k, not 1.5 mil. I have Trouba at 6.25 over 6 years. It works with Morrissey bridged at 3.2.