Speculation: Bucky agrees to 6 years...who's next?

[Mortimer Snerd]

I like the early arb date for Trouba. Lets get this done.

I don't know if that makes him the next signing or not. But everything else may be waiting on him.

 

[Peggy]

alright it's not that bad. but it's a bit of a gamble imo

 

[Peggy]

I agree they overpay Tanev - but I think that means ~950k, not 1.5 mil. I have Trouba at 6.25 over 6 years. It works with Morrissey bridged at 3.2.

I don't wanna bridge morrisey

get that long term contract in now while it's cheaper

 

[Eyeseeing]

Well, I voted for morrissey but clicked petan by mistake

Petan could sign a two year deal so I’ll run with that now ...

Cilantro fingers
Similar to sausage fingers but not as tasty
Trouba’s situation is riveting
So 6x7???

 

[SUX2BU]

Cilantro fingers
Similar to sausage fingers but not as tasty
Trouba’s situation is riveting
So 6x7???

Lol on the fingers comments

Me thinks 6 x 6.5

 

[buggs]

All this talk about Kulikov being put on LTIR is horse-hockey.

He's having his first surgery & a full recovery is expected, perhaps as early as the first day of training camp.

Well I hope you are correct, I'd far rather have Kulikov in the lineup than not. But back injuries are notoriously hard to deal with and it's not an issue that has resolved itself particularly well so far since Kulikov's unfortunate injury while in Buffalo. Grant Clitsome says 'hi' by the way.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't wanna bridge morrisey

get that long term contract in now while it's cheaper

OK - Who do you want to lose to make room?

 

[McDLT]

I put Comrie because I think it will be an easy one that Chevy can cross off the list.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Did you listen to what helle had to say today? Broissit is the backup and Helle is stoked!

Finally had an opportunity to listen to it today.I'll agree from that interview it appears Broissit will be the back-up next season.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

OK - Who do you want to lose to make room?

The difference in AAV between a bridge & a long term deal isn't as large as many believe.

The Cane model has a difference of $1.4 million AAV between a 1 year bridge deal & an 8 year max term deal.

For a team tight against the cap, that number is still significant, but looking long term it's the kind of deal that will reap cap benefits for the Jets for much of the next decade.

The tricky part is getting Josh & his agent to agree to it. For Josh himself, a bridge deal now will get him more money later. That tactic was employed by the Trouba camp & if Trouba signs first, that cash could be a motivating factor for Josh.

That's why I believe Morrissey is the next to sign. Hoping it's at least 5 years at $4.1 million.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The difference in AAV between a bridge & a long term deal isn't as large as many believe.

The Cane model has a difference of $1.4 million AAV between a 1 year bridge deal & an 8 year max term deal.

For a team tight against the cap, that number is still significant, but looking long term it's the kind of deal that will reap cap benefits for the Jets for much of the next decade.

The tricky part is getting Josh & his agent to agree to it. For Josh himself, a bridge deal now will get him more money later. That tactic was employed by the Trouba camp & if Trouba signs first, that cash could be a motivating factor for Josh.

That's why I believe Morrissey is the next to sign. Hoping it's at least 5 years at $4.1 million.

That contract for Morrissey would be a steal. If he signs mid term for that little, I would be able to find the cap space from the cheaper part of the roster. Like moving Chiarot, for example. I'm thinking 3.2 bridge vs 5.5 long term.

 

[Whileee]

The difference in AAV between a bridge & a long term deal isn't as large as many believe.

The Cane model has a difference of $1.4 million AAV between a 1 year bridge deal & an 8 year max term deal.

For a team tight against the cap, that number is still significant, but looking long term it's the kind of deal that will reap cap benefits for the Jets for much of the next decade.

The tricky part is getting Josh & his agent to agree to it. For Josh himself, a bridge deal now will get him more money later. That tactic was employed by the Trouba camp & if Trouba signs first, that cash could be a motivating factor for Josh.

That's why I believe Morrissey is the next to sign. Hoping it's at least 5 years at $4.1 million.

Cane's model has a lot of anomalies and weird quirks.

David Perron at 4 x $6.8M???
Maroon at 4 x $5.3M???

He predicted that on an 8-year deal Stastny would get an AAV of $6.9M.

I think Morrissey is likely to be in the 6-7 year x $5.25M. Cane's projection for Morrissey at 5 to 8 years @ $4.1M is just fantasyland.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

That contract for Morrissey would be a steal. If he signs mid term for that little, I would be able to find the cap space from the cheaper part of the roster. Like moving Chiarot, for example. I'm thinking 3.2 bridge vs 5.5 long term.

It would certainly be a steal! There are many posters here that understand the difference between buying RFA years vs. UFA years & I would hope everyone understands AAV, which is simply average salary. Posting history of far too many suggests otherwise.

Without naming players to avoid controversy, lets pretend a player has played 3 seasons in the NHL, playing his first at the age of 20. He will become a UFA, demanding more salary on the open market once he's played 7 seasons or is over 27.

Signing his second contract at maximum term at the age of 23 buys 4 RFA & 4 UFA years. For arguments sake & to keep the math simple we'll say his RFA years are 3 million each & his UFA years are 6 million each. 3+3+3+3+6+6+6+6=36. Divide that by 8 & his AAV is $4.5 million.

Now had a bridge deal been signed for two years, his AAV would be $3 million. That's a considerable savings for the time being, but then comes the resigning.

Signing an 8 year deal at this point will have both his RFA years & UFA years at an inflated value. Again to keep the math simple we'll say he's entitled to a small raise. 2 RFA years at $4 million, 6 UFA years at 7 million. 4+4+7+7+7+7+7+7=50. Divide that by 8 & his AAV is 6.25 million.

If you're a GM which route would you prefer to go? If it involves a stud defensemen with great character, professionalism, who is already a premium defender that you believe has yet to approach his ceiling, I'd suggest the former is your option.

Yes this is an over simplification, but hopefully it serves to educate a few more posters on the math behind contracts.

Will Josh Morrissey sign a long term contract? For the Jets sake, lets hope so.

 

[Gm0ney]

Cane's model has a lot of anomalies and weird quirks.

David Perron at 4 x $6.8M???
Maroon at 4 x $5.3M???

He predicted that on an 8-year deal Stastny would get an AAV of $6.9M.

I think Morrissey is likely to be in the 6-7 year x $5.25M. Cane's projection for Morrissey at 5 to 8 years @ $4.1M is just fantasyland.

Yeah there are some quirks, as you pointed out. Maroon was a special case because he took a big discount to play in St. Louis for personal reasons. Overall he's been in the ballpark, I think.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Cane's model has a lot of anomalies and weird quirks.
David Perron at 4 x $6.8M???
Maroon at 4 x $5.3M???

He predicted that on an 8-year deal Stastny would get an AAV of $6.9M.

You pulled out the albatross examples I see. Yes Perron's was off by 67%. Maroon's by 118%. Stastny however wasn't a great example to quote as Cane nailed the term (3 years) & was off 17% on salary.

Last week I did the math on the sum on Cane's work at which point there was a margin of error of 8%.

Considering how large this job was to put together, I would highly doubt any thought at all was put into each individual case. Rather a mathematical model was used to batch tag the entire 2018 free agent pool.

I took the time to study Hellebuyck contract in advance. Whereas Cane was off by 10%, I managed to be personally accurate by 4%. Taking the time to research all the criteria & find a comparable is the key, then factor variables like inflation & the cap increase.

In Bucky's case the key comparable was Holtby. I haven't taken the time to research Morrissey's comparables.

Anyways the Cane mode only serves as a guideline, but studying the math used within it helped me understand contracts in far greater detail & applying it's reasoning to individual examples within the context of each teams cap space should help gauge both term & AAV for every free agent.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It would certainly be a steal! There are many posters here that understand the difference between buying RFA years vs. UFA years & I would hope everyone understands AAV, which is simply average salary. Posting history of far too many suggests otherwise.

Without naming players to avoid controversy, lets pretend a player has played 3 seasons in the NHL, playing his first at the age of 20. He will become a UFA, demanding more salary on the open market once he's played 7 seasons or is over 27.

Signing his second contract at maximum term at the age of 23 buys 4 RFA & 4 UFA years. For arguments sake & to keep the math simple we'll say his RFA years are 3 million each & his UFA years are 6 million each. 3+3+3+3+6+6+6+6=36. Divide that by 8 & his AAV is $4.5 million.

Now had a bridge deal been signed for two years, his AAV would be $3 million. That's a considerable savings for the time being, but then comes the resigning.

Signing an 8 year deal at this point will have both his RFA years & UFA years at an inflated value. Again to keep the math simple we'll say he's entitled to a small raise. 2 RFA years at $4 million, 6 UFA years at 7 million. 4+4+7+7+7+7+7+7=50. Divide that by 8 & his AAV is 6.25 million.

If you're a GM which route would you prefer to go? If it involves a stud defensemen with great character, professionalism, who is already a premium defender that you believe has yet to approach his ceiling, I'd suggest the former is your option.

Yes this is an over simplification, but hopefully it serves to educate a few more posters on the math behind contracts.

Will Josh Morrissey sign a long term contract? For the Jets sake, lets hope so.

I understand the concept. I think your example misstates it though. If your hypothetical player's UFA years are worth 6 then his RFA years are worth more like 4.5. You have used a hypothetical illustration that is skewed to support your POV.

The additional cost of doing the 2 year bridge is covered off by 2 things. 1)We get a total of 10 years instead of 8. Those last 2 are quite a bit more valuable. 2)Cap inflation.

Meantime you get the benefit of being able to sync long term extensions with the expiration of long term contracts to older players.

But lets back up a bit. I already agreed I would sign Morrissey to your mid term solution if he would accept that AAV. The benefit of a bridge would be way too small to justify it in that case. We would still face the issue of his next renewal after that, but 5 years is a long time in the NHL. We can cross that bridge when we come to it (pun entirely accidental ).

A mid term compromise might have merit. It all depends on how Morrissey and his agent view his value. I've figured on 5.5, but that was for 8 years, or at least 7. I might be persuaded to go a little higher than your 4.1 for a 5 year deal. That is 4 RFA years and only 1 UFA. Maybe something <4.5 is possible. The problem is that it gets him to UFA in only 5 years. But, like I said earlier, 5 years is a long time in the NHL. It buys us at least 1 mil in additional cap room for a 5 year term.

 

[Whileee]

You pulled out the albatross examples I see. Yes Perron's was off by 67%. Maroon's by 118%. Stastny however wasn't a great example to quote as Cane nailed the term (3 years) & was off 17% on salary.

Last week I did the math on the sum on Cane's work at which point there was a margin of error of 8%.

Considering how large this job was to put together, I would highly doubt any thought at all was put into each individual case. Rather a mathematical model was used to batch tag the entire 2018 free agent pool.

I took the time to study Hellebuyck contract in advance. Whereas Cane was off by 10%, I managed to be personally accurate by 4%. Taking the time to research all the criteria & find a comparable is the key, then factor variables like inflation & the cap increase.

In Bucky's case the key comparable was Holtby. I haven't taken the time to research Morrissey's comparables.

Anyways the Cane mode only serves as a guideline, but studying the math used helped me understand contracts in far greater detail & applying the reasoning within it to individual examples within the context of each teams cap space should help gauge both term & AAV for every free agent.

I don't mind the concept of a model, but don't agree with the concept of simply plugging in Cane's figures to project cap hits for an individual or team situation. Being 8-10 percent too low on Morrissey and Trouba is highly consequential. So as you note, it's probably best to take important cases on an individual basis rather than relying on the model as a plug and play tool.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I understand the concept. I think your example misstates it though. If your hypothetical player's UFA years are worth 6 then his RFA years are worth more like 4.5. You have used a hypothetical illustration that is skewed to support your POV.

The only POV I'm trying to make is how averages work. Regardless of the example, be it a $3 or $4.5 RFA, getting a RFA to agree to a long term deal gets his UFA years averaged out with RFA years & lessens AAV. The more RFA years compared to UFA the better.

Trouba has 2 RFA years left whereas Morrissey has 4. There's been a few posters questioning why Morrissey's AAV would be so much less than Trouba's based on the same term. This is why.

There's also been posters questioning the reasoning behind signing a long term deal to a player coming off an ELC. Again this is why, particularly as in Scheifele's case, when the GM is very comfortable with the investment.

Lastly there's others simply posting arbitrary numbers. "Trouba will get $8 million..." demonstrating either a total lack of knowledge of salary structure or perhaps as bad as a complete lack of basic multiplication & division skills taught in elementary school.

Yes, perhaps in a long term deal "Trouba will get $8 million"... (doubtful) over his last few years. His next few will be more in the $4.5 million realm. As a result there's no way his AAV is much over $6 million.

No slight was intended towards yourself. I'm pretty sure your arithmetic skills are fine. It's others I'm worried about. Responding to those posts directly & calling them mathematically challenged likely wouldn't go over well.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The only POV I'm trying to make is how averages work. Regardless of the example, be it a $3 or $4.5 RFA, getting a RFA to agree to a long term deal gets his UFA years averaged out with RFA years & lessens AAV. The more RFA years compared to UFA the better.

Trouba has 2 RFA years left whereas Morrissey has 4. There's been a few posters questioning why Morrissey's AAV would be so much less than Trouba's based on the same term. This is why.

There's also been posters questioning the reasoning behind signing a long term deal to a player coming off an ELC. Again this is why, particularly as in Scheifele's case, when the GM is very comfortable with the investment.

Lastly there's others simply posting arbitrary numbers. "Trouba will get $8 million..." demonstrating either a total lack of knowledge of salary structure or perhaps as bad as a complete lack of basic multiplication & division skills taught in elementary school.

Yes, perhaps in a long term deal "Trouba will get $8 million"... (doubtful) over his last few years. His next few will be more in the $4.5 million realm. As a result there's no way his AAV is much over $6.

No slight was intended towards yourself. I'm pretty sure your arithmetic skills are fine. It's others I'm worried about. Responding to those posts directly & calling them mathematically challenged likely wouldn't go over well.

at the bolded.

Like most others, my preference for Morrissey would be to get him locked up for as long as possible. I think that would make the cap just that much harder to manage, unfortunately. I think that when discussing the cap the word 'manage' is key. It isn't as simple as locking up all your top players as long and as cheaply as possible and cutting corners everywhere else. It needs to be managed, massaged and juggled.

 

[ffh]

does anybody know what tagging means. chevy has mentioned it several times now in his last 2 interviews about signing rfa's

 

[Holden Caulfield]

does anybody know what tagging means. chevy has mentioned it several times now in his last 2 interviews about signing rfa's

In what context? There's no "tag" or "franchise tag" like in the NFL or anything. Might he just mean that he is prioritizing those players?

 

[ffh]

In what context? There's no "tag" or "franchise tag" like in the NFL or anything. Might he just mean that he is prioritizing those players?

he says in both interviews tagging comes into play with the process but I have not idea what he means. no like franchising a player in the nfl tho.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

he says in both interviews tagging comes into play with the process but I have no idea what he means. no like franchising a player in the nfl tho.

He might mean QO's as "tags"? Do you have a link to one time he said it?

He might mean that internally they place a "price tag" on the player. So that comes into their process when deciding to sign or give and offer.

 

[ffh]

He might mean QO's as "tags"? Do you have a link to one time he said it?

He might mean that internally they place a "price tag" on the player. So that comes into their process when deciding to sign or give and offer.

no I don't think so. I was just listening to the interview he did on july 1st and in response to a question about signing laine near the end of the interview he said there are certain tagging rules in the cba that he has to comply with. and he said the same yesterday in his interview. mentioned tagging again.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Goldberg

My original pic in the opening post was of Goldberg.

Changed it to Chevy on the phone moments after posting.