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Confirmed with Link: Buchnevich to Blues

stl76

stl76

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Jul 2, 2015
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Prosaic said:
If you aren’t excited about this, get excited:

Breaking Down the Pavel Buchnevich Trade Using Analytics

It’s crazy people go nuts about Landeskog and the Blues just got a player who projects a lot better.
Click to expand...

I'm as excited about this trade as anyone, but that JFresh guy posts some of the worst hot takes I've ever seen. I mean, his description of Blais is laughable. Defence first forward...what?

I take anything that guy thinks or posts with an enormous grain of salt.

EDIT: perfect example of that asshat abusing statistics...



Gee, you think this might be because Slavin plays insanely difficult defensive minutes so of course Hamilton's offensive stats took a hit when he played with Slavin?

Slavin sans Hamilton (18/19 - 20/21): 46.09 OZ%
Hamilton sans Slavin (18/19 - 20/21): 54.4 OZ%

Gee, maybe that important context has something to do with these stats...guess we'll never know tho because instead of actually understanding and properly explaining these numbers, JFresh just wants to post pretty pictures and collect the likes and re-tweets.

Sorry for the rant, this stuff just drives me nuts and I'm over caffeinated watching the draft this morning :laugh:
 
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Prosaic

Prosaic

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Sep 11, 2020
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stl76 said:
I'm as excited about this trade as anyone, but that JFresh guy posts some of the worst hot takes I've ever seen. I mean, his description of Blais is laughable. Defence first forward...what?

I take anything that guy thinks or posts with an enormous grain of salt.

EDIT: perfect example of that asshat abusing statistics...



Gee, you think this might be because Slavin plays insanely difficult defensive minutes so of course Hamilton's offensive stats took a hit when he played with Slavin?

Slavin sans Hamilton (18/19 - 20/21): 46.09 OZ%
Hamilton sans Slavin (18/19 - 20/21): 54.4 OZ%

Gee, maybe that important context has something to do with these stats...guess we'll never know tho because instead of actually understanding and properly explaining these numbers, JFresh just wants to post pretty pictures and collect the likes and re-tweets.

Sorry for the rant, this stuff just drives me nuts and I'm over caffeinated watching the draft this morning :laugh:
Click to expand...

Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.
 
542365

542365

2018-19 Cup Champs!
Mar 22, 2012
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Prosaic said:
Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.
Click to expand...
The numbers may be objective, but the way in which they are presented often aren’t. That leads to many “analytic darlings” who don’t actually improve their team on the ice.
 
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stl76

stl76

No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
Jul 2, 2015
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Prosaic said:
Analytics are an attempt at quantifying on-ice value and genuinely are reliable.

In the surface Blais doesn’t seem like a defensive minded winger but consistently posting poor on-ice offensive results and decent but unspectacular defensive results is probably what led to that conclusion.

I think it’s important to keep in mind that any statistical probability assessment of anything is predicative and not absolute.

I’m not necessarily defending this particular guys takes mostly because I generally don’t know what his takes are. All I’m saying is he is only projecting what the numbers, an unbiased, incorruptible system says of a player.
Click to expand...
Was not trying to criticize you in particular or analytics in general.

I'm a big believer in analytics generally speaking, but analytics are only as valuable as the context that comes with them. Analytics without proper context can be extremely misleading; analytics with proper context can elucidate crucial information that gets overlooked with a traditional "eye test".
 
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Vincenzo Arelliti

Vincenzo Arelliti

He Can't Play Center
Oct 13, 2014
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Louie the Blue said:
Man, I keep going back and forth on which is a bigger issue-RD or LD.

I think RD is because Krug needs a partner and ideally you'd bump Scandella down to 3rd pair and have Bortuzzo/Mikkola as your extra(s).

Other part of me could see value in getting a LD to pair with Faulk.
Click to expand...
Ideally, I think we grab a young, capable top-4 LHD to pair with either Faulk or Parayko… like Noah Hanifin. Not sure where this player is coming from, though, and my guess is that we don’t really address it this year.
 
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Novacain

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Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.
 
AVictoryDive

AVictoryDive

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Jan 7, 2013
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Novacain said:
Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.
Click to expand...
Supposedly he’s still in Russia and his agent said they’d talk more after the draft
 
Oberyn

Oberyn

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Mar 27, 2011
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Novacain said:
Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.
Click to expand...
In this flat cap world, I don't see many teams that would be willing to give him a large enough offer sheet. The Blues acquired him 3 days ago and there have been negotiations ongoing so I'm not too worried. Armstrong is probably more focused on the first day of FA before he really starts dialing in on the RFAs that need to be signed.
 
Brian39

Brian39

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Apr 24, 2014
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Novacain said:
Anyone else starting to get a little worried that we haven’t signed him yet? I’m wondering how high his contract demands are. (I do think it’s probably high, just a matter of how high), and is still an RFA, which could mean he gets a big offer in a few days.
Click to expand...
Not worried about an offer sheet. Threshold for getting a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is $6.166M. We would unquestionably match anything less than that. So the worst case scenario is that he gets offered a contract above $6.166M, we let him walk and essentially just traded a 2nd and Blais for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

The Rangers almost certainly did this deal because they felt his contract demands were too high (and are worried about an arbitration award). We are probably going to have to write a big check to sign him, but an offer sheet is the least of my concerns. I think we can get a deal done at $7M AAV on a long term deal (probably not max-term).
 
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Robb_K

Robb_K

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Brian39 said:
Not worried about an offer sheet. Threshold for getting a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is $6.166M. We would unquestionably match anything less than that. So the worst case scenario is that he gets offered a contract above $6.166M, we let him walk and essentially just traded a 2nd and Blais for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

The Rangers almost certainly did this deal because they felt his contract demands were too high (and are worried about an arbitration award). We are probably going to have to write a big check to sign him, but an offer sheet is the least of my concerns. I think we can get a deal done at $7M AAV on a long term deal (probably not max-term).
Click to expand...

I hope it is only $6.5M AAV for 5 years.
 
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Ranksu

Ranksu

Crotch Academy ftw
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Apr 28, 2014
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Lapland
Blais + 2nd <-> buch is perfect example how you upgrade your roster.

NOT DOWNGRADE IT.
 
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