Brady Tkachuk is on pace for one of the greatest season in analytics history

[sxvnert]

Im at the point with advanced stats that i just look at them and this is my brain:

Thats the point. It creates an entire industry of snake oil salesman needed to interpret statistics created hourly. No different than legalese.

 

[SotasicA]

Brady Tkachuk is officially the greatest ever.

 

[Pez68]

Thats the point. It creates an entire industry of snake oil salesman needed to interpret statistics created hourly. No different than legalese.

Or, you can just watch the game, and largely ignore the stats.

 

[Connor McConnor]

We need JoeThorntonsRooster in here to tell us how advanced stats show Draisatl as being a byproduct of McDavid more please! I'm sure he'd defend Brady too because this thread has become very anti-analytics.

 

[ijuka]

As we all know, Joel Eriksson Ek is the best player in the league because his xGF% is the highest in the league.

 

[Guttersniped]

Delete

 

[JetsFan815]

The expected goals model heavily rewards shots close to the net.

Brady lives in front of the net looking for deflections and garbage goals (pretty much as close as it gets to the net) so it's not hard to figure out why the model grossly exaggerates how many goals he's "expected" to score.

I'm optimistic one day these stats might actually mean something.

You know what else "rewards shots close to the net"? Reality! That's how a large percentage of goals in the NHL are scored, in front off the net often off of rebounds. Unless you are a Ovechkin/Laine/Matthews you aren't beating goalies clean with shots from the around the outside of the hashmarks. If Tkachuk is able to get himself in that position in front of the net and get those shots off then ofcourse that means he is doing something good.

 

[Tacitus Kilgore]

Could he be the most highly evolved of all the Tkachuks?

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Analytics turned the coyotes into what they are today.

 

[Machinehead]

Some of the responses in this thread lol

Imagine bragging about not understanding things

 

[JetsFan815]

While I get your point, Zach Hyman is 31st in the league in ixg%. Players behind Hyman that I would take over him are:

• Kane
• Aho
• Barkov
• Barzal
• Ratanen
• Bergeron
• Connor
• etc etc

So there are scenarios that a player with a lower xGoals would be taken 10 times out of 10. Lets leave the hyperbole at the door.

The Zach Hyman argument doesn't apply because Tkachuk actually has high end skill and great hands. He's not just banging away in front of the net blindly. Also he plays on a bad team (the guy closest to him on OTT only has half his xGs) where it takes a lot of work to just get the puck in those positions unlike guys like Hyman who have a lot of high end talent surrounding them to get the puck in those high danger areas.

 

[Bedards Dad]

The Zach Hyman argument doesn't apply because Tkachuk actually has high end skill and great hands. He's not just banging away in front of the net blindly. Also he plays on a bad team (the guy closest to him on OTT only has half his xGs) where it takes a lot of work to just get the puck in those positions unlike guys like Hyman who have a lot of high end talent surrounding them to get the puck in those high danger areas.

You completely missed the point. xGoals have limited value on their own since they don't take player skill into account, which is why Zach Hyman is so high, while much better players are behind him. Similar to Tkachuk who is top of the league when there are a lot of more talented players who are well behind him.

 

[JetsFan815]

You completely missed the point. xGoals have limited value on their own since they don't take player skill into account, which is why Zach Hyman is so high, while much better players are behind him. Similar to Tkachuk who is top of the league when there are a lot of more talented players who are well behind him.

I never denied that xGoals leave something to be desired when it comes to shooter quality, so ofcourse guys like Ovechkin/Matthews/Laine/Stamkos over-perform them. My point is that unlike Hyman, Brady is actually a skilled player with great hands and should not be put in the same category as guys like that. He is not the best player in the league but he is excelling at getting shots off from dangerous areas at levels never seen before since 08/09 Ovechkin on a really bad team so that should be acknowledged. I would not be surprised if Tkachuk becomes a 35-40 goal player in his prime when Ottawa surrounds him with talent.

 

[Bedards Dad]

I never denied that xGoals leave something to be desired when it comes to shooter quality, so ofcourse guys like Ovechkin/Matthews/Laine/Stamkos over-perform them. My point is that unlike Hyman, Brady is actually a skilled player with great hands and should not be put in the same category as guys like that. He is not the best player in the league but he is excelling at getting shots off from dangerous areas at levels never seen before since 08/09 Ovechkin on a really bad team so that should be acknowledged. I would not be surprised if Tkachuk becomes a 35-40 goal player in his prime when Ottawa surrounds him with talent.

Again you are missing the point. Someone said they would take the player with a lower xG if they actaually put the puck in the net vs someone with a higher xG who wasn't producing. Then a poster brought in hyperbole with "You would take Hyman over McDavid?' for some reason. I was merely pointing out there are many scenarios that the lower xG player would be choosen, specifically du to talent level. I mean, I didn't even mention Brady.

 

[Bomber0104]

You know what else "rewards shots close to the net"? Reality! That's how a large percentage of goals in the NHL are scored, in front off the net often off of rebounds. Unless you are a Ovechkin/Laine/Matthews you aren't beating goalies clean with shots from the around the outside of the hashmarks. If Tkachuk is able to get himself in that position in front of the net and get those shots off then ofcourse that means he is doing something good.

There's a difference between shooting the puck in close versus hacking a puck into a goalie's pads with the net completely covered, hoping for a garbage goal.

One is more dangerous than the other but the model would suggest the opposite since it doesn't factor in how prepared the goalie/shooters are in the situation.

As unique and talented a player as Brady is, the fact he is leading in an "advanced" stat such as this should completely call into question its validity.

 

[CanadasTeam]

Shame about the face, though

 

[Golden_Jet]

Lol that was a funny story,
that was Brady’s reaction to a teammate when reporter asked, who did you call first, when you found out you were playing your first NHL game, teammates response was his girlfriend.
Brady later in interview said , it’s got to be your parents.

Reporter was interviewing 3 players at the time.

 

[nobody]

While I get your point, Zach Hyman is 31st in the league in ixg%. Players behind Hyman that I would take over him are:

• Kane
• Aho
• Barkov
• Barzal
• Ratanen
• Bergeron
• Connor
• etc etc

So there are scenarios that a player with a lower xGoals would be taken 10 times out of 10. Lets leave the hyperbole at the door.

It was just a joke. Lighten up. I know how valuable stone hands Hyman has been for us.

 

[7even]

Tkachuk is ~4 goals goals behind (has scored 6 total goals) of that 10.18 of total expected.

Matthews has scored ~10 goals more (18 total) than his expected 8.09.

Just statistical variation or is there something flawed how these are count?

"Expected" is what it sounds like -- a measure of an average. Great goal scorers necessarily outperform average results.

 

[DropTheGloves]

So does this put him above Nichushkin for the Hart?

 

[Bank Shot]

He seems like much less of an idiot than his brother so that's nice.

 

[Bedards Dad]

It was just a joke. Lighten up. I know how valuable stone hands Hyman has been for us.

Lighten up? I just pointed out some facts.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Been saying it forever. Expected goals is an oversimplified and flawed metric that needs to be fixed.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Then don't go into a thread with the word "analytics" in the title? Seems like a simple solution.

I don't care about our local celebrity punching somebody at a bar piss drunk. But i still read the tabloid headline because i find it entertaining, if only for a second.

I see greatest season of all time i click. Damn you brain!!

 

[Kranix]

This indicates that over the next 3000 game the Senators might score more goals than the Capitals, if Brady plays that long.