Brady Tkachuk is on pace for one of the greatest season in analytics history

[cudi]

Using this metric blindly can be a lot of fun. Player X can be a monster with a high expected goals but never bury shit.

The above was not a dig at Brady Tkachuk. I like him.

Analytics can be a useful tool 100%. Its just the phrase that gets me chuckling. I dont hate the stat, I hate the term 'expected goals' lol.

 

[sennysensen]

The problem with analytics like this, is it assumes every player has an equal ability to score on a shot. Someone like Matthews doesn't need as many chances due to his quick release, ability to pick the corners, etc. I would expect Matthews to require far less chances to score a goal then say someone like Connor Brown, who I like as a player, but his hands aren't nearly as good, so he needs many more chances to score 10 goals than Matthews, Ovechkin or Pasternak would.

 

[AvroArrow]

These kind of stats is exactly why I think advanced stats are total horse shit. The eye test is and has always been the best way to evaluate a player. Stats are cool and all, but random stats out of context are useless. He's a great young player but looking at this stat alone would suggest he's a bigger threat offensively than McDavid/Matthews which is quite obviously not true. As a matter of fact they are WAY ahead of him in every offensive way imaginable. Advanced stats are extremely over rated.

 

[JT Kreider]

He'll eventually slow down and have slump, like any other player in the league (most)

No, last year he was top 10 in SOG but had a horrific shooting percentage. Only 21 goals on 259 shots, the 8th most in the league.

Who's your pick to be the next superstar?

This was obviously coming and he is only going to get better.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Sens fan here, just shows how meaningless some of these advanced stats are. Solid player but he isn't dominating games by any stretch of the imagination.

Couldn't have said it any better. I couldn't believe the OP. Still don't.

 

[SenzZen]

Very happy to have this guy on my team, but this is a perfect example of why analytics require significant context.

Im not anti analytic at all, but the term 'expected goals' always makes me laugh.. Reminds me of the 'hypothetical dollars' from South Park.

 

[ijuka]

Wow, amazing.

I think we need to introduce a new trophy like Corsi Trophy to the player with the best advanced stats that season.

 

[Kamina]

Lots of good posts in here explaining the value of advanced stats and the problem of selecting an outlier and jumping to conclusions

And then some ppl just ignore it and make a blanket statement about advanced stats being useless lol

 

[Pez68]

@JetsFan815 Is this a serious post, or satire? Because....there's just no way to tell anymore.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Lots of good posts in here explaining the value of advanced stats and the problem of selecting an outlier and jumping to conclusions

And then some ppl just ignore it and make a blanket statement about advanced stats being useless lol

They are useless.

 

[HarryLime]

wish analytics never took off. seeing these stats and the amount of users gushing over them is lame

 

[Brobust]

Rich man's Zach Hyman. I say that as a compliment.

 

[snipes]

Advanced stats aren't meaningless. They're just frequently very overstated and used to push absurd narratives. Unlike say baseball analytics, most hockey analytics take a step away from a guys contributions that win games (goals / points / +/- to Corsi / expected goals as apposed to say runs to on-base %).

For example, according to some Nichuskin is better than Draisaitl. Clearly absurd.

To get intellectual about this, while I use advanced states almost daily it has to do with hockey being a fluid and transitional sport that leads to some of its flaws. I always check Natural Stat Trick (note: if you're just hearing about this site for the first time, check it out. It's widely used and considered credible for analytics around here) after a game and am a proponent of analytics, however, they still have inherent flaws compared to baseball. The eye test should always be used in conjunction with analytics to adjudicate a player.

Baseball is a static sport, there is a defined beginning and end to each "play". Whereas, hockey is a fluid and transitional sport without clear cut "beginning" and "endings" to each play.

The fluidity of hockey make analytics less reliable, still useful but not to the extent of baseball analytics.

 

[Pez68]

wish analytics never took off. seeing these stats and the amount of users gushing over them is lame

They have only taken off for casuals, who don't know enough about the game, and don't understand what they're watching. They think it works like baseball, where analytics tell most of the story.

People that have played/coached/watched the game for years use them how they are supposed to be used. As a supplementary tool, that may or may not be helpful in confirming what you're seeing.

 

[ToDavid]

The guy is averaging 1.84 xGoals/60... that's insane, no one this season is even close. Matthews is a distant 2nd at 1.37/60.

I'm guessing you used a 300 minute filter, because there's 10 other regular players between them who have played ~200+ minutes. Including guys virtually tied with Tkachuk.

Only 72 forwards have played 300 minutes. That's less than 20% of the forward roster spots in the league.

 

[ToDavid]

Sens fan here, just shows how meaningless some of these advanced stats are. Solid player but he isn't dominating games by any stretch of the imagination.

It only seems meaningless if you refuse to think it through. It's all about context.

He's a very good player who plays net front on the powerplay, a position that generates a lot of high danger scoring changes (for example, Wayne Simmonds is also among the league leaders for iXG/60). He's also among the league leaders in powerplay time per game.

So is the statement "greatest season in analytics history" meaningless? Yes. That doesn't make the stats themselves meaningless.

 

[guyzeur]

This is a satirical thread, right?

As much as your question?

 

[ijuka]

Lots of good posts in here explaining the value of advanced stats and the problem of selecting an outlier and jumping to conclusions

And then some ppl just ignore it and make a blanket statement about advanced stats being useless lol

What are they useful for?

 

[Pez68]

It only seems meaningless if you refuse to think it through. It's all about context.

He's a very good player who plays net front on the powerplay, a position that generates a lot of high danger scoring changes (for example, Wayne Simmonds is also among the league leaders for iXG/60). He's also among the league leaders in powerplay time per game.

So is the statement "greatest season in analytics history" meaningless? Yes. That doesn't make the stats themselves meaningless.

It's actually context that makes it meaningless, IMO. It shows me how ridiculously flawed this statistic is.

 

[Beville]

Im at the point with advanced stats that i just look at them and this is my brain:

Confused at first, then interested for a second... but then i realize:

To be honest I look at it all and I don’t even understand.

 

[Atoyot]

Im at the point with advanced stats that i just look at them and this is my brain:

Confused at first, then interested for a second... but then i realize:

Then don't go into a thread with the word "analytics" in the title? Seems like a simple solution.

 

[sxvnert]

At the end of the day he has 6 goals in 20 games.

 

[pabst blue ribbon]

This thread is a great example of people who don't want to understand stats that go beyond the basic boxscore numbers bash stats they don't understand because one random guy made on the internet made a stupid assertion using them

 

[LGB]

Exploits one of the flaws of xG which is overvaluing shots that are very close to the net which the goalie is ready for. A lot of his ixG come from just stuffing pucks right into the goalie's pads. Shots that have almost no chance at going in.

 

[Stuzchuk]

Sens fan here, just shows how meaningless some of these advanced stats are. Solid player but he isn't dominating games by any stretch of the imagination.

this...