Brady Tkachuk is on pace for one of the greatest season in analytics history

[Eisen]

To dumb down this stat, it's basically "most one-timers + rebound shots + shots near the net per 60 minutes"

Tkachuk is a beast in the last 2 categories so his numbers will always be inflated, he's also likely to going to have a couple of seasons during his career with some really high goal numbers with some puck luck.

See, that name is understandable.

 

[Bounces R Way]

How many iXG does it take to trade in for a real one? Inquiring minds want to know

 

[RealisticLeaf55]

Because of these recent, jaw dropping findings, Ovechkin, Matthews, Crosby, McDavid and Mackinnon all...



Don't care and will continue to outscore him almost every single season.

 

[Oddbob]

Tkachuk takes a shit load of shots.

Tkachuk also takes a shit load of shots near the net (banging away).

Of course his analytics will be good. Doesn't mean he's actually as good as they suggest though.

Not true, everyone will foam at the mouth when the first NHL player to have 500 shots in a season and 8 goals scored. Shots on net are the bestest ever, goals are kind of meh!

 

[Canucks5551]

All the anti-intellectualism and strawmanning in this thread is hurting my brain.

 

[Bedards Dad]

To dumb down this stat, it's basically "most one-timers + rebound shots + shots near the net per 60 minutes"

Tkachuk is a beast in the last 2 categories so his numbers will always be inflated, he's also likely to going to have a couple of seasons during his career with some really high goal numbers with some puck luck.

To explain better, in order of importace it's:

1. Shot Distance From Net
2. Time Since Last Game Event
3. Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
4. Speed From Previous Event
5. Shot Angle
6. East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
7. If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot
8. Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
9. Other team’s # of skaters on ice
10. East-West Location on Ice of Shot
11. Man Advantage Situation
12. Time since current Powerplay started
13. Distance From Previous Event
14. North-South Location on Ice of Shot
15. Shooting on Empty Net

 

[Bedards Dad]

Great way to put. He is the Warren Buffett of the Zach Hyman type player.

Yep, he is a better in every way Zach Hyman, if Zach Hyamn came from a meathead family.

 

[BlueBaron]

It's always nice when one of your guys is elite or the best at something. Certainly a player many of us would like to have.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

I don't need analytics to show me how good and effective Tkachuk is!!.. he's a special breed...

Its funny cause i always think analytics and +- have something in common on this site....

Both are always a great way for people to argue how good a certain player on their team is.... BUT rival fans will say those stats mean nothing(yet will jump at the chance to point it out if those stats are poor)....

but if those rival fans had a player with good analytic stats/high +-, they would do the same thing and argue how good their guy is

Its always a very funny thing to see and they are stats that people on here use to fit their agenda all the time.

 

[Henkka]

To explain better, in order of importace it's:

1. Shot Distance From Net
2. Time Since Last Game Event
3. Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
4. Speed From Previous Event
5. Shot Angle
6. East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
7. If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot

1. Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
   [*]Other team’s # of skaters on ice
   [*]East-West Location on Ice of Shot
   [*]Man Advantage Situation
   [*]Time since current Powerplay started
   [*]Distance From Previous Event
   [*]North-South Location on Ice of Shot
   [*]Shooting on Empty Net

Still THE most important factor of all goalscoring, "passing location before the shot vs shot location, if there was a pass" missing.

And individual skill.

Matthews and Laine shooting are not same as Frans Nielsen or Jujhar Khaira shooting. Their individual expected Goal ratings are not even from same planet, if they have same shot from same location.

 

[Golden_Jet]

To explain better, in order of importace it's:

1. Shot Distance From Net
2. Time Since Last Game Event
3. Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
4. Speed From Previous Event
5. Shot Angle
6. East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
7. If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot
8. Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
9. Other team’s # of skaters on ice
10. East-West Location on Ice of Shot
11. Man Advantage Situation
12. Time since current Powerplay started
13. Distance From Previous Event
14. North-South Location on Ice of Shot
15. Shooting on Empty Net

What does #2 mean, when did player play his last game? If so why is that so high on the list.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Still THE most important factor of all goalscoring, "passing location before the shot vs shot location, if there was a pass" missing.

And individual skill.

Matthews and Laine shooting are not same as Frans Nielsen or Jujhar Khaira shooting. Their individual expected Goal ratings are not even from same planet, if they have same shot from same location.

I've stated multiple times that quality of player is missing and thats why it will always be an imperfect stat, glad you agree.

 

[Bedards Dad]

What does #2 mean, when did player play his last game? If so why is that so high on the list.

I believe that means the longer since a goal, the more likely one will happen, as in its more likely for a goal to happen at 9:53 of the 2nd in a 0-0 game vs a goal to happen at 0:34 into the 1st period. Its about probability of something happening.

 

[Henkka]

I've stated multiple times that quality of player is missing and thats why it will always be an imperfect stat, glad you agree.

Hope the some good smart puck solutions come soon and they'll give the passing data available. Then we'll have a new world with better expected estimations.

 

[Jumptheshark]

All the anti-intellectualism and strawmanning in this thread is hurting my brain.

There is a numbers board for a reason. So all those analytics lovers can have a giant love in there. Here, when people want to post about them the rest of us can take apart the statements.

 

[Bedards Dad]

There is a numbers board for a reason. So all those analytics lovers can have a giant love in there. Here, when people want to post about them the rest of us can take apart the statements.

That's not true, most people (including me) appreciate what's stats bring, even if they aren't die hard statisticians. Unfortunately you have several people who don't understand then and seem to be afraid of them. I hope those people can see that this isn't a black and white subject; and that stats are only used to provide more context to the eye test/explain why something may be happening/try to predict what might happen in the future.

 

[Dekes For Days]

This thread just seems like a lame attempt at analytics-bashing, by horribly misusing some supplementary stat in isolation over a small sample, without much understanding of what it actually means.

No, Brady Tkachuk is not "on pace for one of the greatest seasons in analytics history".

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

All the anti-intellectualism and strawmanning in this thread is hurting my brain.

I'm not completely anti-advanced stats but to elevate it to the degree where you'd call it anti-intellectualism is really a pedestal they don't warrant being put on.

Certain advanced stats have their usefulness but there's also plenty that lead to dubious conclusions. People wanting to watch hockey without a slew of charts and graphs doesn't mean they think the earth is flat.

 

[OKR]

People still fail to understand that advanced stats and analytics are pretty useless without any context, and never was meant to be used as this ”absolute truth” some people seem to try to pass them as.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

This is a fun thread

Matthews has 18 goals this year and 11 assists while brady has 6 goals and 7 assists for 13 pts.

Matthews is heading to the playoffs and Brady to the golf course

BUT THE ANALYTICS

find me a single analytics fan who has ever said brady was even anywhere close to the overall player, or even just offensive player, that auston matthews is

 

[Top Shelf Wrister]

Is there a list of the past “analytic champs “ in each year? First overalls only please...

 

[Korpse]

People still fail to understand that advanced stats and analytics are pretty useless without any context, and never was meant to be used as this ”absolute truth” some people seem to try to pass them as.

Absolutely context is needed, that's why stats like ixG aren't particularly useful. It attempts to account for context but fails.

 

[Canucks5551]

I'm not completely anti-advanced stats but to elevate it to the degree where you'd call it anti-intellectualism is really a pedestal they don't warrant being put on.

Certain advanced stats have their usefulness but there's also plenty that lead to dubious conclusions. People wanting to watch hockey without a slew of charts and graphs doesn't mean they think the earth is flat.

People being proud of not understanding advanced stats and/or dismissing them without understanding them is anti-intellectualism. Plenty of that in this thread.

 

[Just Linda]

They have only taken off for casuals, who don't know enough about the game, and don't understand what they're watching. They think it works like baseball, where analytics tell most of the story.

People that have played/coached/watched the game for years use them how they are supposed to be used. As a supplementary tool, that may or may not be helpful in confirming what you're seeing.

I don't know, I use them pretty regularly. I find they have three really good uses.

1) Casting a wide net to help bring attention to things you wouldn't otherwise see. If I'm tracking rookies, I don't have time to watch each game for hundreds of them, stats can highlight things that I missed so that I can double back and look at things a different way or pay attention to something else.

2) Track players long term. Once you have a good read of a player, you don't have to keep watching them game after game. If you know what the player is, there is no point watching them 60 times. By keeping track of the stats, you can see if things have changed. If a number suddenly spikes or drops, you check in at that point to see why by watching

3) To assess coaching/ strategy. If something looks like it's working but it's not, the eye test and the results don't always matchup. By using stats (and maps), you can point out deficiencies a lot quicker so that you can zero in on deeper tape of them.

I'd say they became my primary tool a long time ago. Even when I played, we used a form of simple analytics our coach called 'right spot mapping' where he would have one of the trainers time how long it took us to get back to where his scheme said we should be and how long we are able to maintain inside while in those positions. We'd get a ratio about every week or two. Between that and a few others (battle wons, insides lost, etc) our games got broken down into numbers a lot more than most people would expect.

 

[Just Linda]

He'll eventually slow down and have slump, like any other player in the league (most)

He's already slow as molasses when he skates, hopefully he doesn't slow down anymore.