Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part VI

[Brian39]

Well that wasn't the case earlier this season when they kept trotting him out there.

I just think people need to relax when it comes to throwing extensions at Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson. If we want to bring them back for a year, I'm good with that. But talking 2-3 years gets risky.

Now Gunnarsson is hurt again. He's pretty much made of glass.

You mean when the person who is no longer employed as our head coach kept trotting him out there? And are you just ignoring the games where he was healthy scratched?

Coaches decide who plays. The medical staff determines who is unfit to play and the player can influence the medical staff by hiding injuries/issues. But in the scenario where J-Bo is hiding things form the medical staff to hit a games played bonus, the coach can absolutely scratch him if whatever hidden issue is hindering play. If anything, a lower salary with a games played bonuses gives a coach more cover to scratch a guy than a non-bonus laden deal.

I'm not at all on board with 3 years, but I'm fine with 2 because it will likely be the cost of doing business unless we are willing to swallow an uncomfortable AAV in order to get a 1 year deal. Most 35 year olds are going to push hard for a 2nd year and someone will absolutely offer him that in free agency. We just flat out don't have an internal replacement for him and Ed has done nothing this year to inspire confidence that he is capable of being the top pairing LHD on a contender. It is unlikely that we could find that replacement in UFA without handing out a much riskier contract than a 2 year deal to Bouw at a reasonable AAV. De Haan got 4 years at $4.55 AAV. Cole got 3 years at $4.25 AAV. Mike Green got 2 years at $5.375 AAV the night before free agency opened. Top 4 D are expensive in UFA and expensive via trade. Before next season, the Blues are either going to need to spend a valuable asset or give out a contract they don't love in order to keep the left side of the blue line good enough. I'd rather save the asset and give a mediocre 2-year contract to J-Bo than a 3 or 4 year contract to a different D who is best suited as a 2nd pair guy.

My preference would be a 1 year deal at an inflated AAV. I'm getting more and more comfortable with a 1 year deal that is only a slight pay cut from his current contract. The cap shouldn't be an issue next year, but might be in the following year. I'd like to have some extra "dead' money on the books for a 1 year deal next year and then revisit the left side after seeing Dunn and Ed for another year. After a mosdest increase in the cap, we're looking at $22ish mil to fill 10 spots (I have ROR, Vova, Schenn, Schwartz, Bozak, Perron, Thomas, Steen, Petro, Parayko, Dunn, Bortz, and Allen as the 'locks' to be on the 23 man roster). Worst case scenario, Binny eats up $2 mil and Ed costs $4.5 mil. I think their actual deals combine to cost a mil or so less than that, but let's call it $6.5 mil and leave the team with $15ish mil on 8 spots. Plugging in Kyrou and an internal 7th D man makes that $13.5ish mil on 6 spots, all of which are bottom 6 forwards, 'extra' players and then the last starting D man. Even giving J-Bo a one year, $5.4 mil AAV gives us plenty of space to fill the remaining spots with modest raises to Fabbri, Sanford, Barby, Sunny and/or Foley, Stevens, Kostin, and Mac Mac. You're not bringing in a replacement for Allen unless Allen is off the books and it is unlikely that his replacement costs a ton more than him. Any trade for an upgrade up front would require moving a $4+ mil player just to open up roster space, so even an expensive guy is only a modest bump to the cap. Obviously there are moving parts and predicting a roster 8 months out is bound to have an incorrect assumption or 2. But it is clear that the cap is not a big issue this summer and we could afford to overpay for a 1 year deal to Bo.

But if J-Bo won't sign a 1 year deal, I'm fine adding a 2nd year if the AAV and bonus structure is right.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

The PP is still abysmal and is really going to hurt us down the stretch. I would want to know the plan for fixing special teams before hiring Berube long term.

 

[BlueDream]

You mean when the person who is no longer employed as our head coach kept trotting him out there? And are you just ignoring the games where he was healthy scratched?

Coaches decide who plays. The medical staff determines who is unfit to play and the player can influence the medical staff by hiding injuries/issues. But in the scenario where J-Bo is hiding things form the medical staff to hit a games played bonus, the coach can absolutely scratch him if whatever hidden issue is hindering play. If anything, a lower salary with a games played bonuses gives a coach more cover to scratch a guy than a non-bonus laden deal.

I'm not at all on board with 3 years, but I'm fine with 2 because it will likely be the cost of doing business unless we are willing to swallow an uncomfortable AAV in order to get a 1 year deal. Most 35 year olds are going to push hard for a 2nd year and someone will absolutely offer him that in free agency. We just flat out don't have an internal replacement for him and Ed has done nothing this year to inspire confidence that he is capable of being the top pairing LHD on a contender. It is unlikely that we could find that replacement in UFA without handing out a much riskier contract than a 2 year deal to Bouw at a reasonable AAV. De Haan got 4 years at $4.55 AAV. Cole got 3 years at $4.25 AAV. Mike Green got 2 years at $5.375 AAV the night before free agency opened. Top 4 D are expensive in UFA and expensive via trade. Before next season, the Blues are either going to need to spend a valuable asset or give out a contract they don't love in order to keep the left side of the blue line good enough. I'd rather save the asset and give a mediocre 2-year contract to J-Bo than a 3 or 4 year contract to a different D who is best suited as a 2nd pair guy.

My preference would be a 1 year deal at an inflated AAV. The cap shouldn't be an issue next year, but might be in the following year. I'd like to have some extra "dead' money on the books for a 1 year deal next year and then revisit the left side after seeing Dunn and Ed for another year. But if J-Bo won't sign a 1 year deal, I'm fine adding a 2nd year if the AAV and bonus structure is right.

Why does it matter who the coach was? We don't have any proof that Berube or whatever coach we have in the future wouldn't do the same thing.

And yeah, like the 2-3 games he was scratched? Big deal. Not even sure what you're trying to argue.

 

[Brian39]

Why does it matter who the coach was? We don't have any proof that Berube or whatever coach we have in the future wouldn't do the same thing.

And yeah, like the 2-3 games he was scratched? Big deal. Not even sure what you're trying to argue.

You seem to be suggesting that Yeo playing a limited/hindered J-Bo is somehow relevant to whether whoever the coach is in 19/20 and 20/21 would play him if he was hiding an injury and not playing like one of our top 6 D men. Apologies if that's not the point you were making.

 

[MissouriMook]

If we end the season with 95+ points and Berube secures a playoff spot because of the team and not just because all the other opponents fall on their face, how confident are you with him as the coach moving forward? We know he isn't an elite coach, but we can't deny that he's done a hell of a job getting the players motivated and playing complete games again.

I think this question more or less answers itself. There is no denying that he has turned this team around in the last several weeks, but I still don't think he is the guy to get this team to an elite or Cup contender level. If we make the playoffs and actually do some damage, then you're looking at a different story.

 

[BlueDream]

Just sitting here pondering all the reasons the Blues have improved their play so much. Obviously most have been talked about but one simple thing is we're just putting players in the lineup that actually deserve to be there. I'm glad Berube has been trotting out the same guys.

I know Jordan Kyrou and Jordan Schmaltz have been the focus of some debates here regarding their playing time, but I think it is evident now that both were actually hurting the team.

Among the 16 games Kyrou dressed in, the Blues only won 4 of them.

They are by far the worst players analytically that have suited up for the Blues this season aside from a cup of coffee for Jerabek and Soshnikov.

Are they the only reason the team was so bad? No. But it's clear neither of them can cut it in the NHL right now, and the coaching staff was right to shelter them heavily. Even in spite of that, they still got dominated while on the ice. Yes, Robert Bortuzzo is much better than Schmaltz. And it's important, as has been seemingly proven year after year with this team, that we put players on the 4th line that can actually play a 4th-line style game if we want to have success. Plugging guys like Kyrou and even Fabbri there just doesn't work. MacEachern, Blais and Jordan Nolan might not have the pure skill they do, but this team NEEDS guys like that to create energy and create an identity. Same with Borts on defense. Sundqvist and Barbashev obviously fall in this category as well. I love seeing role players contribute.

So all in all... Kyrou has a tremendous future and this post isn't meant to take that away from him. He's tearing up the AHL and probably makes the team next season. I have zero concerns about him whatsoever. Schmaltz is just a bust though.

 

[carter333167]

Just sitting here pondering all the reasons the Blues have improved their play so much. Obviously most have been talked about but one simple thing is we're just putting players in the lineup that actually deserve to be there. I'm glad Berube has been trotting out the same guys.

I know Jordan Kyrou and Jordan Schmaltz have been the focus of some debates here regarding their playing time, but I think it is evident now that both were actually hurting the team.

Among the 16 games Kyrou dressed in, the Blues only won 4 of them.

They are by far the worst players analytically that have suited up for the Blues this season aside from a cup of coffee for Jerabek and Soshnikov.

Are they the only reason the team was so bad? No. But it's clear neither of them can cut it in the NHL right now, and the coaching staff was right to shelter them heavily. Even in spite of that, they still got dominated while on the ice. Yes, Robert Bortuzzo is much better than Schmaltz. And it's important, as has been seemingly proven year after year with this team, that we put players on the 4th line that can actually play a 4th-line style game if we want to have success. Plugging guys like Kyrou and even Fabbri there just doesn't work. MacEachern, Blais and Jordan Nolan might not have the pure skill they do, but this team NEEDS guys like that to create energy and create an identity. Same with Borts on defense. Sundqvist and Barbashev obviously fall in this category as well. I love seeing role players contribute.

So all in all... Kyrou has a tremendous future and this post isn't meant to take that away from him. He's tearing up the AHL and probably makes the team next season. I have zero concerns about him whatsoever. Schmaltz is just a bust though.

I think it has far, far more to do with the goaltender than with how Kyrou and Schmaltz were doing with their TOI.

A confident and predictable goaltender helps to produce a confident team that can press the play.

 

[BlueDream]

I think it has far, far more to do with the goaltender than with how Kyrou and Schmaltz were doing with their TOI.

A confident and predictable goaltender helps to produce a confident team that can press the play.

Dude....

No shit.

We all know about Binnington. The point of my post was to look at another reason that hasn't been talked about lately that has also helped the team instead of just making yet another post about the obvious.

Because while Binnington has been good, the team in front of him has certainly helped as well:



So I'm looking at a minor reason why that is. Didn't say it was the #1 reason, or even close to that. But it was a topic that was highly debated throughout the season and I think we can put it to rest that the coaching staff and management was correct in their evaluations of the 2 players. (Also brings me to mention that management usually is correct with these things.)

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

What is the time interval for that graph and where is Allen?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Just sitting here pondering all the reasons the Blues have improved their play so much. Obviously most have been talked about but one simple thing is we're just putting players in the lineup that actually deserve to be there. I'm glad Berube has been trotting out the same guys.

I know Jordan Kyrou and Jordan Schmaltz have been the focus of some debates here regarding their playing time, but I think it is evident now that both were actually hurting the team.

Among the 16 games Kyrou dressed in, the Blues only won 4 of them.

They are by far the worst players analytically that have suited up for the Blues this season aside from a cup of coffee for Jerabek and Soshnikov.

Are they the only reason the team was so bad? No. But it's clear neither of them can cut it in the NHL right now, and the coaching staff was right to shelter them heavily. Even in spite of that, they still got dominated while on the ice. Yes, Robert Bortuzzo is much better than Schmaltz. And it's important, as has been seemingly proven year after year with this team, that we put players on the 4th line that can actually play a 4th-line style game if we want to have success. Plugging guys like Kyrou and even Fabbri there just doesn't work. MacEachern, Blais and Jordan Nolan might not have the pure skill they do, but this team NEEDS guys like that to create energy and create an identity. Same with Borts on defense. Sundqvist and Barbashev obviously fall in this category as well. I love seeing role players contribute.

So all in all... Kyrou has a tremendous future and this post isn't meant to take that away from him. He's tearing up the AHL and probably makes the team next season. I have zero concerns about him whatsoever. Schmaltz is just a bust though.

Yes, all the people that complained about not playing the kids enough, should realize, that kids have to earn their time. A guy like Thomas earned the time that he got when he played bigger minutes and it didn't have a negative impact on the team performance. Someone like Mack earned his time in a specific role.

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues have been playing playoff hockey for the past few weeks. Can they continue this and into the playoffs without burning out? Very busy remaining schedule with numerous B2B’s and 3 in 4. Very difficult.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The Blues have been playing playoff hockey for the past few weeks. Can they continue this and into the playoffs without burning out? Very busy remaining schedule with numerous B2B’s and 3 in 4. Very difficult.

I expect them to get to 3rd in the division, and then be able to tread water with a little over .500 play. Its not likely they could pass Nashville, and I think they'll outpace everyone chasing. But they won't have to accumulate points at this pace. The last month of the season is busy, but the schedule is filled with teams that are likely to be sellers and should not be overly difficult to keep getting enough wins to push through.

I see a probable St Louis - Nashville first round. Man, it would be nice to bump them out in the first round, especially if it could be done in front of those obnoxious fans. Either way, I think St Louis can match up with Nashville for a tough series. Its not a situation where they'll just show up and get chopped down.

 

[Brian39]

What is the time interval for that graph and where is Allen?

I believe it is season-long, as it includes Corey Crawford. You can't see Allen on the photo in the tweet because he is under one of the FLA logos. Allen is just below the 2.7 expected goals against per 60 (the x axis is set at 2.7) and -.4 goals saved above expectation (the y axis is set right at 0). This puts Allen in 'slightly easier than average work' category and squarely in the 'bad results' category. As a side note, Dubnyk has been shockingly bad according to this graph.

This graph supports the argument that the team is playing drastically better in front of Binny than they were in front of Allen (2 expected goals against per game vs 2.65), while also indicating that Binny is outperforming those expected results by about the same margin that Allen is underperforming his expected results. I'd say that squares up with my eye test pretty well, but I'd be curious to see Allen's results over the last 6-8 weeks so we can filter out the start of the year where our defensive scheme was a disaster. I'd wager that the gap between expected goals against has been narrower for the last 2 months than this graph indicates.

Edit: Tableau Public

That's a link to his actual charts instead of just the photos. The actual charts allow you to click on a team so you can see where guys are hiding.

 

[Frenzy31]

Watching the game yesterday. I was Allen get beat on a wrap around because of his push off. I watched his body language and the team over the rest of the game and it was very obvious to me that they lost faith in him and started to over compensate.

I think everyone on that ice gets tight when he lets in a bad goal. Including him. Which leads to more defensive errors.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I believe it is season-long, as it includes Corey Crawford. You can't see Allen on the photo in the tweet because he is under one of the FLA logos. Allen is just below the 2.7 expected goals against per 60 (the x axis is set at 2.7) and -.4 goals saved above expectation (the y axis is set right at 0). This puts Allen in 'slightly easier than average work' category and squarely in the 'bad results' category. As a side note, Dubnyk has been shockingly bad according to this graph.

This graph supports the argument that the team is playing drastically better in front of Binny than they were in front of Allen (2 expected goals against per game vs 2.65), while also indicating that Binny is outperforming those expected results by about the same margin that Allen is underperforming his expected results. I'd say that squares up with my eye test pretty well, but I'd be curious to see Allen's results over the last 6-8 weeks so we can filter out the start of the year where our defensive scheme was a disaster. I'd wager that the gap between expected goals against has been narrower for the last 2 months than this graph indicates.

Edit: Tableau Public

That's a link to his actual charts instead of just the photos. The actual charts allow you to click on a team so you can see where guys are hiding.

That chart makes it look like Minnesota should do anything it can to get Gibson and enjoy their march into the post-season as a legit contender. I'm not quite sure I believe that, but the stats are pretty decisive.

 

[Mike Liut]

Can somebody take a stab at the lines when Perron returns?

 

[Mike Liut]

Schenn-O'Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Bozak-Perron
Sanford-Sundqvist-Steen
MacEachern/ Maroon -Barbashev -Thomas

Just don’t like Bozak as #2 C at all. I think Schenn will have to be moved back there soon

 

[Dbrownss]

Can somebody take a stab at the lines when Perron returns?

Hell get the 2RW spot, Steen will move down and Sanford will go down a line. Then you've got MacMac most likely being sent down.

I'd like to see Bozak and Steen to the 3rd with Sanford. Maroon to the 4th, with Thomas to the 2C spot.


Here's my idea

Schwartz O'Rielly Tarasenko
Perron Thomas Schenn


Gets Schwartz going cuz O'Reilly wills it. Gets Schenn back to his RW and Perron to the LW(yes I know Blues dont play him there)

 

[MissouriMook]

Watching the game yesterday. I was Allen get beat on a wrap around because of his push off. I watched his body language and the team over the rest of the game and it was very obvious to me that they lost faith in him and started to over compensate.

I think everyone on that ice gets tight when he lets in a bad goal. Including him. Which leads to more defensive errors.

I've been saying this for the last three seasons when someone brings up the idea that the team in general (and the defense in particular) plays better in front of [insert goalie here] than they do in front of Allen.

Of course they do.

The defensemen know that [insert goalie here] is going to stay between the pipes and not slide out of position, so they don't have to play goalie and D at the same time, so they can focus on their game.

 

[Mike Liut]

Hell get the 2RW spot, Steen will move down and Sanford will go down a line. Then you've got MacMac most likely being sent down.

I'd like to see Bozak and Steen to the 3rd with Sanford. Maroon to the 4th, with Thomas to the 2C spot.


Here's my idea

Schwartz O'Rielly Tarasenko
Perron Thomas Schenn


Gets Schwartz going cuz O'Reilly wills it. Gets Schenn back to his RW and Perron to the LW(yes I know Blues dont play him there)

That’s not bad at all

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Can somebody take a stab at the lines when Perron returns?

Schenn-O’Reilly-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Thomas-Perron
Maroon/Fabbri-Bozak-Steen
Sanford-Barbashev-Sundqvist

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Schenn O'Reilly Tarasenko
Schwartz Thomas Perron
Sanford Bozak Steen
Barbashev Sundqvist Mac/Maroon

I realize it's unlikely that Mac stays in over Maroon and even moreso that Berube feels comfortable letting Thomas anchor the 2nd line, but if there were a time to give him a look it is now, the kid is making things happen. Him and DP might be able get Schwartz out of his funk and become a dangerous two way scoring line.

 

[ScratchCatFever]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that part of the reason we haven't seen Fabbri in the lineup, other than how the current lineup has been performing may be because there is a deal in the works and they are waiting until closer to the deadline to get him in for a few games and showcase him to potential trade partners? I hate the idea of giving up on him unless he's going to be part of a deal to bring in a player the level of Stone or near that caliber, and that likely wouldn't happen until the off-season.

 

[Brian39]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that part of the reason we haven't seen Fabbri in the lineup, other than how the current lineup has been performing may be because there is a deal in the works and they are waiting until closer to the deadline to get him in for a few games and showcase him to potential trade partners? I hate the idea of giving up on him unless he's going to be part of a deal to bring in a player the level of Stone or near that caliber, and that likely wouldn't happen until the off-season.

Not at all. Healthy scratching him does not but lower his trade value. If we wanted to showcase him for a trade, we'd be getting him into the lineup while the team is playing well. Holding a guy out and then hoping he has a good 5 games before the deadline doesn't do anything to increase value.

 

[Dbrownss]

Is anyone else getting the feeling that part of the reason we haven't seen Fabbri in the lineup, other than how the current lineup has been performing may be because there is a deal in the works and they are waiting until closer to the deadline to get him in for a few games and showcase him to potential trade partners? I hate the idea of giving up on him unless he's going to be part of a deal to bring in a player the level of Stone or near that caliber, and that likely wouldn't happen until the off-season.

No. I think he's just struggled to get his NHL speed back, and the Blues are winning. I also think he came back early from that shoulder, and there isnt a rush to get him back in. He doesnt need IR but he's not required to be in the lineup