Blues Discussion Thread 2018-2019 - Part II

[BlueDream]

I dont know where I'd rank army but he's done a good to great job depending on how some of the prospects work out.


He deffinently gets a tip of the hat for the Tavares fall out. He had plans A,B and C. Plan A fell through so he went with B and C. While everyone was fawning over Wilson's cap clearance moves....his only plan fell through and he's done nothing to add to the team.

Yep, I feel like this is something that not enough people are talking about - the Sharks are one of the biggest fails of the offseason, and I love it. They've added literally nobody, which is crazy.

It's also funny how everybody was fawning over them flipping Hoffman, when that now looks like an awful decision. They should have kept him, because it's tough to find a 25-30 goal scorer for that cheap. They didn't, and now they really don't have the assets to get a guy like Pacioretty or Skinner because they have no 1st in 2019 and their prospect pool is pretty weak.

Big time strikeout by Wilson, you can't just bet 100% of your marbles on one player. That's idiotic. And props to Armstrong for having plans like you mentioned.

 

[Alklha]

How good a GM is Armstrong? Top half.

He has done a great job these last two offseasons of getting great value on Schenn and O'Reilly.

He put together his scouting department, and he deserves the credit for their success.

His work on contracts is largely fine. Berglund remains around market rate and we had no problems shifting him a year into the deal. Same with Sobotka. People complain about the Steen contract, but last season his PPG production had him as an above average second liner. The prior 4 seasons his PPG production was first line numbers. The Lehterä contract was a disaster, but it was an understandable risk with Backes asking for too much term. Lehterä would have been value at that if he put up the same numbers he did in the first season.

The biggest criticism when it comes to contracts is the Jake Allen contract. A deal that is still a complete mystery, simply because it goes against everything he normally does.

The question is whether he'll be able to win with his current philosphy. We are all loving the situation just now because the chips fell our way. We look a long time to address the LHD situation because the perfect deal wasn't available. We've taken a long time to address the C situation because the perfect deals weren't available, the prior overhaul being done without moving assets. It's great when that perfect deal comes along, but is he aggressive enough to win with that perspective?

If Allen craps the bed again this year then are we going to be patient and hope Husso is the saviour? Maybe the fact we've solidified our lineup, along with the age of our key players, will see Armstrong be more aggressive if Allen isn't performing.

Armstrong is a safe and steady GM. He'll put a solid foundation down and keep the team decent, the question is whether he can win.

 

[BlueDream]

For real... Armstrong has won me over again (for now at least lol). For as much clamoring as we were doing for him to land a top 6 center, he acquired a couple awesome fits in O'Reilly and Schenn. I couldn't be happier with the guys he targeted there. Both good two-way players.

I remember a lot of us were pointing to Poile, who did a great job getting Nashville two top 6 C's as well. But we didn't have to give up a player of Seth Jones' caliber - not even close. Yes we gave up futures, but given our prospect pool and youth of our core we had that luxury. In fairness, Nashville's loaded defense allowed them to move a guy like Jones.

But turning Berglund, Sobotka and Lehtera into O'Reilly and Schenn by adding in a few 1sts is a big win for a team trying to win over the next several years. I'm very happy.

 

[Klank Loves You]

This team is no where without our god of scouting, Bill Armstrong. It's a resource few GM's have. That said, he's placed the team in a great spot without raiding the pantry.

 

[JoshFromMO]

This is so off topic, but I watched the big Seabrook hit in the '14 ploffs and I'm amazed that Backes got completely destroyed and still got up and tried to fight the entire team before going off to the locker room lol what a beast

 

[Dbrownss]

This is so off topic, but I watched the big Seabrook hit in the '14 ploffs and I'm amazed that Backes got completely destroyed and still got up and tried to fight the entire team before going off to the locker room lol what a beast

Unfortunately that's what killed the beast too

 

[Brian39]

In the same sense, Lehtera's contract wasn't that bad because we still got Schenn out of it. We won't know if Bergy's deal will be bad until the end of it, but that's not our concern anymore, so who cares. Just need to deal with Allen now. Luckily Army's few bad deals aren't on big ticket items either.

To be fair, the trades are completely different though. No one believes that Schenn was worth 2 1st round picks alone. The overwhelming consensus is that Lehtera's inclusion in the trade increased the asking price for Schenn. Maybe the cost was a 1st and a 3rd for Shcenn, but bumped to two 1sts with the inclusion of Lehtera or maybe it was something else). We don't know how much more we had to give up to include Lehtera, but it is very clear that the Blues had to add in order to get rid of Lehtera as part of the deal or would have had to give another team an asset to take Lehtera.

With Bergie, there is zero indication that his inclusion in the trade increased what we gave up. The rest of the trade parts were 100% in line with Buffalo's reported ask and most people believe that the Sabres were asking for a better prospect than Thompson. There is no indication that we had to add an asset in order to include Bergie or Sobotka in the trade. One (or both) of them was seen as either neutral value or potentially added value to the trade.

We did pay a cost to shed Lehtera's deal, but didn't to shed Bergie and Sobotka. We're spending about as much real dollars on ROR as Bergie/Sobotka, so it's not like the Blues got hosed in terms of real dollars by taking on the signing bonus.

 

[Stealth JD]

I've been a huge critic of that contract, largely because I thought it would be difficult to move. I didn't mind the early years, but I had concerns about the back half. Credit where credit is due, I was incorrect about that. There is no indication that we had to give up any extra asset to shed that contract. The worst thing you could say is that we had to eat ROR's bonus, but I think that was going to be a part of any deal not involving Kyrou/Thomas/Dunn. There is a decent argument to be made that Bergie (contract and all) was a positive asset for that trade.

There's a decent argument to be made that Bergie is the best piece of that deal. I know the Sabres value the picks and Thompson more today, but those are magic beans. Bergie is head and shoulders better than Thompson or Sobotka and the picks are going to be mid-20's and mid-50's (likely) who have a marginal shot at having careers half as productive as Berglund's. I think a lot of people, myself included, see Thompson as having 20G/20A-upside who can slot as a center or winger and can be decent defensively and contribute to puck possession. Great...sound like anybody we know?

So, you've got Berglund, a guy who's a little less effective than Berglund (Sobotka), a guy who appears to have the upside of Berglund (Thompson), a draft-pick which will probably be in the range of where the Blues found guys like Berglund & Thompson, and a 2nd rounder. Sure Thompson could become an All-Star playing alongside Eichel, and if that's the case the deal starts to look a little more even. But I'd definitely say that Berglund was a positive asset for that trade...the Sabres just may not yet realize the extent of it.

 

[Brian39]

There's a decent argument to be made that Bergie is the best piece of that deal. I know the Sabres value the picks and Thompson more today, but those are magic beans. Bergie is head and shoulders better than Thompson or Sobotka and the picks are going to be mid-20's and mid-50's (likely) who have a marginal shot at having careers half as productive as Berglund's. I think a lot of people, myself included, see Thompson as having 20G/20A-upside who can slot as a center or winger and can be decent defensively and contribute to puck possession. Great...sound like anybody we know?

So, you've got Berglund, a guy who's a little less effective than Berglund (Sobotka), a guy who appears to have the upside of Berglund (Thompson), a draft-pick which will probably be in the range of where the Blues found guys like Berglund & Thompson, and a 2nd rounder. Sure Thompson could become an All-Star playing alongside Eichel, and if that's the case the deal starts to look a little more even. But I'd definitely say that Berglund was a positive asset for that trade...the Sabres just may not yet realize the extent of it.

I largely agree, but his contract reduces some of his value. I think Thompson's ceiling is higher than what you laid out, but I think his realistic outcome 2 years out is around Bergie's current level. The difference is that he will be on an extremely team-friendly deal and 4 more years of team control while Bergie will likely start his decline and be on a mediocre contract.

Regardless, I'm one of the people who would make the argument that Bergie was added value to that deal from Buffalo's perspective. My point was that even at the worst case scenario, he is neutral value.

 

[Stealth JD]

I largely agree, but his contract reduces some of his value. I think Thompson's ceiling is higher than what you laid out, but I think his realistic outcome 2 years out is around Bergie's current level. The difference is that he will be on an extremely team-friendly deal and 4 more years of team control while Bergie will likely start his decline and be on a mediocre contract.

Regardless, I'm one of the people who would make the argument that Bergie was added value to that deal from Buffalo's perspective. My point was that even at the worst case scenario, he is neutral value.

I would have valued Berglund as a 2nd round pick, and Sobotka a 3rd. Neither are over-paid relative to what the bring, and both are capable NHL'ers and contributors on a good team. Lesser guys have gotten similar returns, so I'd tend to think of Buffalo's haul as a couple of firsts, a couple of seconds and a third, as either guy could be flipped by the Sabres down the road. But I won't be a bit surprised to see Berglund as the bell-cow of that herd from their perspective.

 

[JoshFromMO]

Unfortunately that's what killed the beast too

I know he's for sure has higher point seasons, but the WCF run was probably my favorite Backes and that's how I'm going to remember him lol.

 

[justmuckit]

Heard last night that they were getting Maroon for 1x$2m, now hearing it could be as low as $1.6m.

 

[Chojin]

I would assume that the Blues are hoping for some LTIR relieve come the start of the season, otherwise it's going to be extremely difficult to get everyone under the cap.

 

[Alklha]

I would assume that the Blues are hoping for some LTIR relieve come the start of the season, otherwise it's going to be extremely difficult to get everyone under the cap.

The only concern is that we aren't in a situation where we have to pay someone to take a contract to get under the cap.

We can go up to ~$4.25m on the Edmundson extension without that concern.

 

[TheDizee]

someone is gonna get moved, my money is on sundqvist and thorburn.

 

[TheBluePenguin]

someone is gonna get moved, my money is on sundqvist and thorburn.

I would be fine with either or both, I would rather the give Thomas and Kyrou more time then have to dress either
Sundqvist and Thorburn.

 

[A Real Barn Burner]

someone is gonna get moved, my money is on sundqvist and thorburn.

Do they have to be moved can’t they be buried in the AHL? According to capfriendly we are at 46 of 50 contracts without Edmundson or schmaltz.

 

[Blueston]

someone is gonna get moved, my money is on sundqvist and thorburn.

That isn't going to create much space. Sunny is one of lowest paid guys on team.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I’d bet Gunnarsson gets moved.

 

[Alklha]

someone is gonna get moved, my money is on sundqvist and thorburn.

What do you mean by "moved"?

Neither player has trade value, and Sundqvist would be a good option in the AHL. Both those guys are waiver material. Thorburn first because of the higher salary.

If we're talking trade then it is Gunnarsson. We have 8 defenseman and that clears cap and roster space.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Screw it, lets rent Patches for a year. Move Steen in the process.

 

[Bluesfan54]

With the Maroon signing finally done, what are we going to talk about between now and Traverse City? I guess there could be a minor move or two to clear roster and/or cap space but other than that.................?

 

[Ranksu]

Screw it, lets rent Patches for a year. Move Steen in the process.

I'll take that in heartbeat.

 

[WeWentBlues]

Can't remember ever being this excited about our team going into next year.

 

[Note Worthy]

Can't remember ever being this excited about our team going into next year.

Maybe when we signed Stastny...I don't know. This is pretty exciting.