Bill Ny the contractless guy (part 8)

[supermann_98]

Dubas needs to start leaking trade rumors to Ottawa

For a re-signed Stone I would do it in a heartbeat.

Matthews with Stone would be insane as line mates.

 

[Menzinger]

That's an overpay.

I’d say depends on the term. On a 6-7 year deal, yes. 8 years would be more reasonable considering number of UFA years remaining

 

[ottomaddox]

Did this contract dispute change your view of Nylander?

 

[Trapper]

Did this contract dispute change your view of Nylander?

Not without context and missing information.
It takes 2 sides to negotiate and we really don’t know what either side thinks.

 

[Bluelines]

I find that to be weird logic. If Willy signs a cheap contract, it will make him much more valuable to the Leafs compared to the market as we'll need to squeeze out as much impact per cap dollar as we can. If he gets a long-term contract in the low $6M range, he's among the safest players on our league.

Ponder that he and Marner maintain their relative performance going forward. That might mean that Marner hits PPG, and Nylander a bit under. Marner gets a case for a significantly bigger contract compared to Willy. If they stay close, who is the first to go? Willy at $6, or Marner at $8? But if Willy was at $7.5, that scenario changes.

Agreed, Kadri signed a very team favorable contract and he is still here 3 years later. How many 30 goal scorers make less than 5 mil per?

Still it was an interesting take, different than its just about money and term. These deals tend to be nuanced.

 

[diceman934]

I'd assume he's looking for roughly $8M. The middle ground will be $7M and I think it'll get done long term (6-8 years) for $7Mish.

Dubas was clear that the offer on the table was it. That offer was rumoured to be 6.25 7-8 years so which for 7 years is more then fair can not see Dubas bending over and giving in here and to over pay him at 7m per as he simply is not worth it when looking at his comparables.
I would say 6.5m per on a 7-8 year deal is the ceiling.

A bridge deal if that what it gets to makes Dubas look weak. As he dismissed it as a possibility and made fun of reporters who suggested that is what is was going to be. However if it is a bridge deal Willy is not going to make anything over 4.75 on a 3 year

 

[Bluelines]

I don't believe that for one second. He is a very good player.

He's a complimentary player whose perceived value has been elevated because of who he plays with.

Quick with out looking tell me the 1st line LW for all the teams in the West.


(You cheated)

 

[Bluelines]

Wow 50 % you say? Do you really believe that?

Same challenge for you, tell me the 1st line LW for all the teams in the West with out looking.

(you cheated too)

 

[Leaf Fans]

He's a complimentary player whose perceived value has been elevated because of who he plays with.

Quick with out looking tell me the 1st line LW for all the teams in the West.


(You cheated)

What are you going on about?

 

[diceman934]

right, totally agree at some point as in first ask was likely around $8M but as I said in a different post Dubas fist number would have been low, its how negotiations work.

$750K difference between $6M and $6.75, if the leafs are at $6.75 and Nylander is at $7.25 that's totally different than $6M and $7.25 isn't it? so anyone with a heart beat still is way off no? so if Dubas is sticking to low 6's by 8 years and Nylander is sticking to low 7's that explains it doesn't it?.

Id say for 8 years he is looking for a touch above $7M, and for the record I don't think he is worth that as of right now but he is factoring in growth and UFA years bought up and I think Dubas is trying to stick in the low 6's. It proably gets done for $6.75 day before camp. Nylander's manager seeing what happens if he waits out a rookie GM and if he caves to $7.25m or not, I don't think he does cave that much both see the game of bluff of the other and the deal gets done for 8 years

So if you believe he is asking for 7.25 right now which I believe it is 7.5 which is neither here nor there the fact that people are posting his ask was/is 8m per is not a stretch at all.

Dubas can not afford to cave in and will not as he holds all the cards as well as he has two more important contracts to get done.

I say it gets done at 6.5 m x 7 years which is more then his comparable but fair. Or it all goes to hell in a hand basket and a trade is considered.

 

[diceman934]

When was it reported?

On Saturday night it was suggested that he may be asking for that kind of money. Not reported but discussed.

 

[Nineteen67]

On Saturday night it was suggested that he may be asking for that kind of money. Not reported but discussed.

Ok. Huge difference between reported and opined.

 

[Walshy7]

So if you believe he is asking for 7.25 right now which I believe it is 7.5 which is neither here nor there the fact that people are posting his ask was/is 8m per is not a stretch at all.

Dubas can not afford to cave in and will not as he holds all the cards as well as he has two more important contracts to get done.

I say it gets done at 6.5 m x 7 years which is more then his comparable but fair. Or it all goes to hell in a hand basket and a trade is considered.

I guess its all relative, $750K to $8M imo is a long way down if Duabs opened at $5.5M if he moved the same distance at the same pace would be $6.25 (which some believe is where he is at) As crazy as $8M is of an ask IF (if) Dubas started at $5.5M that's just as crazy

 

[tom leafers]

For a re-signed Stone I would do it in a heartbeat.

Matthews with Stone would be insane as line mates.

Two of the craftiest players in terms of stick use and takeaways. My god, they would always have the puck

 

[Canada4Gold]

What are you going on about?

Apparently you're an NHL GM now. Since you're his proof of how NHL GMs don't know other teams players. Congrats! Which team? Can you trade all your good players to Toronto?

 

[diceman934]

I guess its all relative, $750K to $8M imo is a long way down if Duabs opened at $5.5M if he moved the same distance at the same pace would be $6.25 (which some believe is where he is at) As crazy as $8M is of an ask IF (if) Dubas started at $5.5M that's just as crazy

I doubt Dubas started at 5.5m. And it is only 500k below his true value based on his best comparable and not 2m over his best comparable. These negotiations are not a meet in the middle of what one wants and what one offeres. It is a negotiation to sign the player at his fair value and to not over pay because of some pressure like Edmonton and Buffalo has done. We do not have the same pressure at all as Nylander is not as important a piece as the two others were to their teams.

 

[Pi]

Dubas was clear that the offer on the table was it. That offer was rumoured to be 6.25 7-8 years so which for 7 years is more then fair can not see Dubas bending over and giving in here and to over pay him at 7m per as he simply is not worth it when looking at his comparables.
I would say 6.5m per on a 7-8 year deal is the ceiling.

A bridge deal if that what it gets to makes Dubas look weak. As he dismissed it as a possibility and made fun of reporters who suggested that is what is was going to be. However if it is a bridge deal Willy is not going to make anything over 4.75 on a 3 year

If Nylander wants a bridge, I’d give him a one year deal. Power is with Dubas in that case because Nylander gets nothing in the event of a lockout.

I don’t see any scenario where the Leafs don’t come out on top.

 

[Bluelines]

What are you going on about?

Making a point, if you can't name 16 LW from a conference you probably don't watch much of, how do you think NHL GM's could name all 31 1st line LW? If they can't name all 31 that would probably mean some of them don't know what position Hyman plays or who he is as a player. Heck I had to look up if he was a LW or a RW and I watched every game last year.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Making a point, if you can't name 16 LW from a conference you probably don't watch much of, how do you think NHL GM's could name all 31 1st line LW? If they can't name all 31 that would probably mean some of them don't know what position Hyman plays or who he is as a player. Heck I had to look up if he was a LW or a RW and I watched every game last year.

You also didn't suggest that NHL GMs would know other teams line combinations off the top of their heads. You just said they would have no clue who Hyman was when asked, which is obviously not true.

Maybe if Dubas asked if anyone wanted "our first line LW", maybe a couple GMs might ask for the name because they wouldn't know which line Dubas was considering our top line. But you're crazy if all 30 other GMs doesn't know who Zach Hyman is. You would probably have to get into Andrew Nielsen territory before more than half the leagues GMs wouldn't really know who you're talking about without some research.

Do I know who Jason Zucker is? Yes, very easily. If you asked me exactly what position and line he plays on for the Wild, I probably wouldn't know. Those are 2 different questions.

 

[Walshy7]

If Nylander wants a bridge, I’d give him a one year deal. Power is with Dubas in that case because Nylander gets nothing in the event of a lockout.

I don’t see any scenario where the Leafs don’t come out on top.

And then after the lockout and max contracts are 5 years? We walk nylander to ufa

 

[4thline]

However if it is a bridge deal Willy is not going to make anything over 4.75 on a 3 year

I think that's a shade low (could see 5.2) but I think a lot of people are underestimating just how cheap his next 2-3 years would be (and are valued at) and consequently just just how high the later year valuations have to be to generate the higher averages

 

[Bluelines]

You also didn't suggest that NHL GMs would know other teams line combinations off the top of their heads. You just said they would have no clue who Hyman was when asked, which is obviously not true.

Maybe if Dubas asked if anyone wanted "our first line LW", maybe a couple GMs might ask for the name because they wouldn't know which line Dubas was considering our top line. But you're crazy if all 30 other GMs doesn't know who Zach Hyman is. You would probably have to get into Andrew Nielsen territory before more than half the leagues GMs wouldn't really know who you're talking about without some research.

Do I know who Jason Zucker is? Yes, very easily. If you asked me exactly what position and line he plays on for the Wild, I probably wouldn't know. Those are 2 different questions.

Didn't say all GM's, I said 50%. Reading for comprehension matters

 

[Canada4Gold]

I think that's a shade low (could see 5.2) but I think a lot of people are underestimating just how cheap his next 2-3 years would be (and are valued at) and consequently just just how high the later year valuations have to be to generate the higher averages

+1000000

Most people see the long term deals with numbers in the 6-7 range and overestimate how much the RFA years are worth. Those deals get that high because of the added UFA years. Almost every bridge deal that gets signed everyone proclaims it's a total steal. See the Kucherov bridge thread. Yes they're steal because you don't get paid that highly for RFA years. A 5 years Nylander deal would barely reach 5.5 because of that and would only start to climb to and above 6 because of the UFA years afterwards. Yet that's always ignored by most and we get guesses of 3 years 6 million, or 5 years 6.5 million regularly

 

[Welsh Maple Leaf]

How many outcomes are there?

He signs way later than we want? Trade? Back to Europe?

 

[thewave]

And then after the lockout and max contracts are 5 years? We walk nylander to ufa

I hope by that time we have a cup and if we need to trade Nylander after that, tbh, I don't really care because we start the Chicago model. Chicago went against there own model when they paid 10.5m to two declining assets. I hope we don't do the same and JT is the first and last of those but if a 1D comes free, that is ok as well.

Matthews 14m?? GTFO trade him. Bridge him, try and win then deal with it.

Players are not people to a well run org, they are assets for trade or hire. Can be very little emotion in the decisions only in your relationships. Fans are all emotion and I await the influx.