Bill Ny the contractless guy (part 8)

[Canada4Gold]

Didn't say all GM's, I said 50%. Reading for comprehension matters

I know, you said 50%. I'm saying if you don't believe all other GMs would know who is his(which you are saying because you're saying 50% wouldn't) then you're crazy. They might not be able to tell you that he's the LW that played with Matthews and Nylander last year and now plays with Marner and Tavares. Though given its their job they probably would. But all 30 GMs will absolutely know who. Zach Hyman is if brought up and you're crazy if you think even 1 of them wouldn't.

 

[nsleaf]

Same challenge for you, tell me the 1st line LW for all the teams in the West with out looking.

(you cheated too)

No idea, but I have likely heard of them and I'm not even an NHL GM.

 

[Bluelines]

I know, you said 50%. I'm saying if you don't believe all other GMs would know who is his(which you are saying because you're saying 50% wouldn't) then you're crazy. They might not be able to tell you that he's the LW that played with Matthews and Nylander last year and now plays with Marner and Tavares. Though given its their job they probably would. But all 30 GMs will absolutely know who. Zach Hyman is if brought up and you're crazy if you think even 1 of them wouldn't.

I realize this is devolving into a ridiculous discussion but your definition of "knowing" and my definition are clearly different.

 

[Sweet Leaf]

Michael Nylander was an uber talented center who bounced around his entire career and seemingly wore out his welcome fast wherever he went. He played for 7 NHL teams. He played for more teams in Europe than that.

He's probably most infamous in NHL circles for agreeing to sign with the Oilers and then backing out a mere few hours later and signing with Washington (the scuttle was his wife hit the roof when she found out he agreed to a deal with Edmonton). You can read about that here:

Oilers cry foul over Nylander signing | CBC Sports

I'm concerned Willie is an equal head case to Pops.

 

[Bluelines]

No idea, but I have likely heard of them and I'm not even an NHL GM.

Knowing a player is more than just recognizing a name. I know Sir John A MacDonald's name but I couldn't tell you a single thing about him besides he was Prime Minister.

 

[Bluelines]

Michael Nylander was an uber talented center who bounced around his entire career and seemingly wore out his welcome fast wherever he went. He played for 7 NHL teams. He played for more teams in Europe than that.

He's probably most infamous in NHL circles for agreeing to sign with the Oilers and then backing out a mere few hours later and signing with Washington (the scuttle was his wife hit the roof when she found out he agreed to a deal with Edmonton). You can read about that here:

Oilers cry foul over Nylander signing | CBC Sports

I'm concerned Willie is an equal head case to Pops.

Yep that very thing was suggested on Leafs Lunch yesterday.

 

[4thline]

+1000000

Most people see the long term deals with numbers in the 6-7 range and overestimate how much the RFA years are worth. Those deals get that high because of the added RFA years. Almost every bridge deal that gets signed everyone proclaims it's a total steal. See the Kucherov bridge thread. Yes they're steal because you don't get paid that highly for RFA years. A 5 years Nylander deal would barely reach 5.5 because of that and would only start to climb to and above 6 because of the UFA years afterwards. Yet that's always ignored by most and we get guesses of 3 years 6 million, or 5 years 6.5 million regularly

IMO using three comparables we can build a pretty clear schedule.
Reinhart 3.65x2 (No Cap adjustment) (Scoring adjustment +20%) = 4.4 x2 = 8.8
Kucherov 4.76x3 (Cap adjustment 5.19x3) (scoring adjustment -7%) =4.83 x 3 = 14.49= 5.69 for third year.
Ehlers 6x7 (Cap adjustment 6.2x 7)

6.2 x7 = 43.4 - 14.49 = 28.91 /4 = 7.23
It's hard to breakdown the value between RFA years 4-5 and UFA years 6-7, but getting to a 6.2 average over 7 years would be valuing those UFA years at 8+ million

 

[jaric1862]

Anywhere between 6.33 and 6.5 for 6 years is where this contract should be. This is fair for both sides involved, im sure this gets done right before the start of the season.

 

[diceman934]

I think that's a shade low (could see 5.2) but I think a lot of people are underestimating just how cheap his next 2-3 years would be (and are valued at) and consequently just just how high the later year valuations have to be to generate the higher averages

If his valve over 7 years is 6m per based on comparables then 5.2 m per is high over 3 years. I think that it is 4.5m per which is 1.5 to 1.75 per under his value on a 7 year deal.

Remember he is a RFA and would still be an RFA after a 3 year deal. We are not paying for any part of UFA years.

Here say 5m per for 5 years and 3 years at 8.33 equals 50m over 8 years 6.25m per average.

Or 5.2 x 5 years then 8.66x 3 years in 52m which is 6.50m per average over 8 years.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

Why would anyone want to sign him to a long term deal? The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and you don’t win those with soft, perimeter players like him. He’s a non factor when the going gets tough because that’s just the kind of player and person he is. How many times do people need to see him wilt in the playoffs before they wake up.

Tremendous talent, but lacks heart and compete. Come playoff time give me KAPANEN all day every day over Nylander. Please trade the primadona for a dman.

 

[Liminality]

Why would anyone want to sign him to a long term deal? The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and you don’t win those with soft, perimeter players like him. He’s a non factor when the going gets tough because that’s just the kind of player and person he is. How many times do people need to see him wilt in the playoffs before they wake up.

Yikes.

Tremendous talent, but lacks heart and compete. Come playoff time give me KAPANEN all day every day over Nylander. Please trade the primadona for a dman.

Yikes.

 

[DarkKnight]

Why would anyone want to sign him to a long term deal? The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and you don’t win those with soft, perimeter players like him. He’s a non factor when the going gets tough because that’s just the kind of player and person he is. How many times do people need to see him wilt in the playoffs before they wake up.

Tremendous talent, but lacks heart and compete. Come playoff time give me KAPANEN all day every day over Nylander. Please trade the primadona for a dman.

Washington 2017 playoffs say hi.

 

[diceman934]

I realize this is devolving into a ridiculous discussion but your definition of "knowing" and my definition are clearly different.

My god any GM in the NHL not knowing who a 40 point player is in the NHL would have to have just woke up from a coma. It is absurd to suggest otherwise.

 

[diceman934]

Washington 2017 playoffs say hi.

What does one have to do with the other. In fact Washington won last year because they were the hardest team in the league to play against in the playoffs and put a bruiser on their top line.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

Washington 2017 playoffs say hi.

Yes, you can read box scores. Bravo. He was not good in 2017 playoffs lol... stats don’t always tell the tale, my friend. He doesn’t battle.

Try watching the games, or try to actually understand what you’re watching.

 

[rent free]

Why would anyone want to sign him to a long term deal? The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, and you don’t win those with soft, perimeter players like him. He’s a non factor when the going gets tough because that’s just the kind of player and person he is. How many times do people need to see him wilt in the playoffs before they wake up.

Tremendous talent, but lacks heart and compete. Come playoff time give me KAPANEN all day every day over Nylander. Please trade the primadona for a dman.

this

 

[Albi34]

I hope all the people bashing Nylander own up to it when he reminds us how good he is.

 

[kindalaidback]

this

lol

 

[Erndog]

Yes, you can read box scores. Bravo. He was not good in 2017 playoffs lol... stats don’t always tell the tale, my friend. He doesn’t battle.

Try watching the games, or try to actually understand what you’re watching.

Please pull up Evgeni Kuznetsov.

People said these same things about him after his first 2 playoff series when he was early 20's.

Something like 9 pts in 26 games right? 2 pts in 14 games one year.

Did you see him last year?

All I'm saying is writing off a player for 2 years in his early 20's is absolutely, positively, unquestionably RIDICULOUS.

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

I hope all the people bashing Nylander own up to it when he reminds us how good he is.

He will probably have a great first 2/3s of the year because that’s what he is built to do.

I hope all the Nylander worshippers will own up to the fact he should’ve been dealt for a dman, when the Leafs get bounced early in the playoffs and Nylander is nowhere to be found.

 

[Walshy7]

Yikes.


Yikes.

why reply to that obvious troll? he is a character on here, pretending to be dave poulin ignoring attention seekers usually gets rid of them

 

[DavePoulin4PM]

Please pull up Evgeni Kuznetsov.

People said these same things about him after his first 2 playoff series when he was early 20's.

Something like 9 pts in 26 games right? 2 pts in 14 games one year.

Did you see him last year?

All I'm saying is writing off a player for 2 years in his early 20's is absolutely, positively, unquestionably RIDICULOUS.

I do not care about numbers right now. I watch the games and evaluate. Nylander doesn’t compete, doesn’t go to the tough areas, doesn’t engage, doesn’t battle along the boards, floats, lives on the perimeter.

He literally is a total non factor when time and space gets taken away and it becomes a mans game. He’s the definition of a “luxury” player and it’s a luxury that the Leafs can’t afford.

 

[mix1home]

You just don't know good contracts man...Ehlers is on a great deal and inflation is pushing the numbers up

So Boston and Winnipeg can have players on great deals, but Leafs should pay top dollars (plus)? Then how we are going to compete and beat those teams if we pay more for equal (or lesser) talent? The answer is: no way. Willy should get in line with Leafs team salary structure. He is not a center and will never be playing there with Leafs C dept. And to the extend he did it to himself. He did not show up in po series with Boston. Leafs management evaluated that lack of compete and went out and signed premium UFA to bolster C position with high compete player, virtually eliminating possibility for Willy to play that 2C role and driving his own line. He should get on 8 years contract what Pasta got on 6 years contract on average as he is not producing or compete at the same level as Pasta.

 

[DarkKnight]

What does one have to do with the other. In fact Washington won last year because they were the hardest team in the league to play against in the playoffs and put a bruiser on their top line.

He said Nylander disappears in the playoffs, he did last year, year prior was good. Do we want to be fair or just tell part stories?

 

[DarkKnight]

Yes, you can read box scores. Bravo. He was not good in 2017 playoffs lol... stats don’t always tell the tale, my friend. He doesn’t battle.

Try watching the games, or try to actually understand what you’re watching.

Ya he was good and I haven't looked at any stats. When you exaggerate to make a point it detracts from said point. Last year Willie was allergic to the dirty areas against Boston, that is fact. So is 2017, where he was good.