BENCH Pavelec Thread!

[garret9]

Screw writing a dump load here and at AIH...

Here are my thoughts:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...e-goaltender-winnipeg-jets-deserves-but-needs

 

[Bob E]

Is Pavs (who is still a young goalie) the future, or is it Pasquale, Halleybuck or Comrie? Or someone else?

Is a guy like Raanta going to be available this off-season? Jets need to acquire a guy that can either push Pavs, or take the net from him.

Pavs would be bottom 1/2 in league, and that's pretty safe to say, imo.

 

[tbcwpg]

Screw writing a dump load here and at AIH...

Here are my thoughts:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...e-goaltender-winnipeg-jets-deserves-but-needs

I agree with that exactly. I'm not against giving Montoya more starts, I'm saying he doesn't make the team better, which is what you've basically said.

As for goalie of the future, I'd say Hellebuyck/Comrie would be the guys in a few years. There won't be much in the way of goaltending that will push Pavelec that much, unless the team wants to spend $6.5m+ on goaltending (Pavelec and an upcoming UFA).

 

[surixon]

I agree with that exactly. I'm not against giving Montoya more starts, I'm saying he doesn't make the team better, which is what you've basically said.

As for goalie of the future, I'd say Hellebuyck/Comrie would be the guys in a few years. There won't be much in the way of goaltending that will push Pavelec that much, unless the team wants to spend $6.5m+ on goaltending (Pavelec and an upcoming UFA).

Why is thought of a buyout so counterintuitive around these parts. I get that TNSE is a fiscally responsible entity but IMO Chipman wants to win and if Chevy can acquire a clear upgrade in net than Mark would bit the bullet.

 

[Grind]

Well, I'll pull a Resurrection here and ask where you think a goalie with a league average SV% would put this team over where it is now. Because our GF/G stat looks pretty bad too. 20th in the league right now.

And I'm not even asking for system fixes. This team gives up the puck like it's candy on Halloween night in its own end. Maybe raise your head up and look where the pass is going. Maybe try to control the puck a bit before swinging your stick around and giving up a pizza Oduya would be proud of. They gave St. Louis 2 goals last week. I meant your comment was disingenuous because it basically stated there were only two solutions, when there are more than that.

I feel we'd probably have at least two more wins this season, probably three.


We also would have been in the playoffs the last two seasons.




So whats your solution? Remove all skaters that give the puck up in the d zone?

These are professional hockey players, I highly doubt they just need to be told to "look for the open man" and all of a sudden our breakout problems will be gone.

if fixing this issue isn't "just telling them", isn't "fixing systems", and isn't acquiring better players, what is it?

as an aside: the problem with focusing on negative aspects like this when not dealing with an actual statistic, is you only notice the exceptions.

You don't notice every touch each player makes of the puck that doesnt result in a bad give-away.


Again we're also left with the problem that we aren't paying attention to other teams and the frequency they encounter these issues with nor (and this is important), the ability of the opposing team to create this issues.

If you feel its simply to a man, the jets not knowing how to break out, or stop d-zone gaffe's, then we have the worst coach in the history of hockey as he has apparently made a team of professionals unlearn rudimentary skills.



...and I well I'm no fan of Noel I don't think he's THAT bad....


EDIT: i should mention that i've based most of my stance on a bit of an assumption: Based off the last three games and the jets historic performance i'm counting on a bit of a swing in cf/a to go in the jets favour.

 

[Prot]

I'd argue that this thread is perfect - if more discussion regarding our goaltending happened here, then perhaps other relevant discussion won't get lost in the Pavs discussion that inevitably crops up in every thread. Just MO.

Actually that's a great point. Maybe we can leave this out of other threads now.... Or so I hope.

 

[surixon]

Well, I'll pull a Resurrection here and ask where you think a goalie with a league average SV% would put this team over where it is now. Because our GF/G stat looks pretty bad too. 20th in the league right now.

And I'm not even asking for system fixes. This team gives up the puck like it's candy on Halloween night in its own end. Maybe raise your head up and look where the pass is going. Maybe try to control the puck a bit before swinging your stick around and giving up a pizza Oduya would be proud of. They gave St. Louis 2 goals last week. I meant your comment was disingenuous because it basically stated there were only two solutions, when there are more than that.

The Toronto Maple Leafs last year and so far this year is what can happen when you get above average goaltending while having g below average defensive abilities.

I am pretty confident that the Jets will easily approach a solar level of performance that they've been at the last few years with regards to out chancing their opposition. Infact we have already seen signs of it happening.

I don't have faith that Paves will improve to league average and think that he creates some of the defensive issues that you raise by being a poor puckhandler and spraying g rebounds all over the zone. I can't imagine he's an easy goalie to play in front of.

 

[BigZ65]

I agree with that exactly. I'm not against giving Montoya more starts, I'm saying he doesn't make the team better, which is what you've basically said.

As for goalie of the future, I'd say Hellebuyck/Comrie would be the guys in a few years. There won't be much in the way of goaltending that will push Pavelec that much, unless the team wants to spend $6.5m+ on goaltending (Pavelec and an upcoming UFA).

Several replacement level goalies and better (granted over a more limited sample compared to Pavelec) went for $1M or less this past off-season.

Wouldn't be hard or expensive to bring in competition, especially at Pavelec's level of play.

 

[Grind]

I agree with that exactly. I'm not against giving Montoya more starts, I'm saying he doesn't make the team better, which is what you've basically said.

As for goalie of the future, I'd say Hellebuyck/Comrie would be the guys in a few years. There won't be much in the way of goaltending that will push Pavelec that much, unless the team wants to spend $6.5m+ on goaltending (Pavelec and an upcoming UFA).

well we all definitly agree on one thing at least


I also agree that so far hellebuyck/comrie look like they could be the goali eof the future. unfortunately, goalies are the most volatile prospects and what looks like a sure bet now could be a total bust.

as for replacements? You see "replacement level" goaltenders signed out of the euros/ahl every season that end up making some noise. Neimi, Fasth, bobrovsky, were all brought over pretty randomly and ended up being good. Khudobin looked liek a good candidate this off season.

That nature of their only being 30 starting jobs means finding someone at a similar level should be easier from a pure numbers perspective.

 

[truck]

Is Pavs (who is still a young goalie) the future, or is it Pasquale, Halleybuck or Comrie? Or someone else?

Is a guy like Raanta going to be available this off-season? Jets need to acquire a guy that can either push Pavs, or take the net from him.

Pavs would be bottom 1/2 in league, and that's pretty safe to say, imo.

Pav is a year younger than Dubnyk, Elliot, Schneider and Quick.

Pav is the same age as Rask and Price.

Pav is older than Reimer, Varlamov, Bernier, Bobrovsky, Holtby and Mason.


These goalies make up something like 1/3 of the league's starters.

How many of these goalies are a mystery?
How many are considered projects?
How many have a worse career save percentage than Pav? *Hint* the answer is 1

Only 2 current NHL starters have posted a lower save percentage than Pav between the ages of 18 and 26 (minimum 50 starts).
Only one of them is good.







Fun game!! Name the goalies!


Goalie Number 1:
25 years old
246 Games Played
102 Wins
106 Losses
27 Loser points
.905 SV%
2.85 GAA
16 SO

Goalie Number 2:
26 years old
241 Games Played
94 Wins
104 Losses
30 Loser points
.906 SV%
2.96 GAA
10 SO

 

[tbcwpg]

well we all definitly agree on one thing at least


I also agree that so far hellebuyck/comrie look like they could be the goali eof the future. unfortunately, goalies are the most volatile prospects and what looks like a sure bet now could be a total bust.

as for replacements? You see "replacement level" goaltenders signed out of the euros/ahl every season that end up making some noise. Neimi, Fasth, bobrovsky, were all brought over pretty randomly and ended up being good. Khudobin looked liek a good candidate this off season.

That nature of their only being 30 starting jobs means finding someone at a similar level should be easier from a pure numbers perspective.

I think when it comes to replacement goalies, the big ones on the market this year are bonafide starters. I also think that any goalie "brought over" is just as much a risk at this point.

And these discussions also often end up with the "If we offered Player X $Y, he would have signed", which may not be the case. Hell, maybe we'll get him this off season.

And in regards to a previous post, I really don't think this team is 2 wins better without Pavelec. If anything I'd say we get the extra point against Washington.

 

[BigZ65]

well we all definitly agree on one thing at least


I also agree that so far hellebuyck/comrie look like they could be the goali eof the future. unfortunately, goalies are the most volatile prospects and what looks like a sure bet now could be a total bust.

as for replacements? You see "replacement level" goaltenders signed out of the euros/ahl every season that end up making some noise. Neimi, Fasth, bobrovsky, were all brought over pretty randomly and ended up being good. Khudobin looked liek a good candidate this off season.

That nature of their only being 30 starting jobs means finding someone at a similar level should be easier from a pure numbers perspective.

Agreed. The thing about Hellebuyck and Comrie is that you're looking at guys that are going to be starters in 17-18, 18-19 if their development goes well. We can't ice a team with below average goaltending in the mean time without attempting to improve, that would be ridiculous.

 

[ps241]

The one thing I would like to find out is how would Pavs do with more time off between starts this season. I would like to see Monty play at least every 4th game. We know historically Pavs plays better with more rest so lets give it a shot. I would be really interested to see if Pavs improves by having Monty take at least 20 games. This level can be managed up and down bases on conditions on the ground.

 

[Grind]

The one thing I would like to find out is how would Pavs do with more time off between starts this season. I would like to see Monty play at least every 4th game. We know historically Pavs plays better with more rest so lets give it a shot. I would be really interested to see if Pavs improves by having Monty take at least 20 games. This level can be managed up and down bases on conditions on the ground.

For sure PS and it's something i really wish we'd do. I also feel we could help bump pav's numbers a bit if we'd use some common sense in how we split up our starts!

 

[Bob E]

Pav is a year younger than Dubnyk, Elliot, Schneider and Quick.

Pav is the same age as Rask and Price.

Pav is older than Reimer, Varlamov, Bernier, Bobrovsky, Holtby and Mason.


These goalies make up something like 1/3 of the league's starters.

How many of these goalies are a mystery?
How many are considered projects?
How many have a worse career save percentage than Pav? *Hint* the answer is 1

Only 2 current NHL starters have posted a lower save percentage than Pav between the ages of 18 and 26 (minimum 50 starts).
Only one of them is good.







Fun game!! Name the goalies!


Goalie Number 1:
25 years old
246 Games Played
102 Wins
106 Losses
27 Loser points
.905 SV%
2.85 GAA
16 SO

Goalie Number 2:
26 years old
241 Games Played
94 Wins
104 Losses
30 Loser points
.906 SV%
2.96 GAA
10 SO

Goalie #1 - Steve Mason

Goalie #2 - Pavs

That sucks.

 

[ps241]

For sure PS and it's something i really wish we'd do. I also feel we could help bump pav's numbers a bit if we'd use some common sense in how we split up our starts!

It is the easiest quick fix from within side our 4 walls.

It may or may not help Pavs, it may or may not help the team, but I think its worth a shot. what if less work helps Pavs play better and our goaltending improves? for a guy like Noel who loves to play with line combinations he is really stubborn when it comes to sticking with the status quo in net?

 

[tbcwpg]

The one thing I would like to find out is how would Pavs do with more time off between starts this season. I would like to see Monty play at least every 4th game. We know historically Pavs plays better with more rest so lets give it a shot. I would be really interested to see if Pavs improves by having Monty take at least 20 games. This level can be managed up and down bases on conditions on the ground.

I'd be happy with 1 in 5 starts. That gives 20% of the starts to Montoya, which I think is about normal for a backup, and gives Pavelec about 65 starts, Montoya with 17.

I do think though, I think it was garrett, ran the numbers and said Pavs is just as bad after 3+ days of rest as he is in a back-to-back.

 

[ps241]

I'd be happy with 1 in 5 starts. That gives 20% of the starts to Montoya, which I think is about normal for a backup, and gives Pavelec about 65 starts, Montoya with 17.

I do think though, I think it was garrett, ran the numbers and said Pavs is just as bad after 3+ days of rest as he is in a back-to-back.

You'd be suprised what the numbers say tbcwpg

 

[truck]

Goalie #1 - Steve Mason

Goalie #2 - Pavs

That sucks.

Yup.

>HERE< is what current NHL goalies did between the ages of 18 and 26

Craig Anderson is the lone goalie that posted lower numbers and turned out to be pretty OK. That said, his SV% numbers have average or better in 8 of 11 NHL seasons. Pav is 1 for 7.

 

[Jets4Life]

I had a three paragraph reply waiting to go, but it was erased, so in summary:

Noel is burning Pavs out by using him nearly every single game, when Montoya should take some of the load off of him.

 

[White Out 403*]

The data pool is huge. It's damning for Pavelec really, and paints a picture of a man who has a very inflated ego of himself. He probably truly believes he's an NHL super star playing in front of a historically bad defence.

 

[Bob E]

Yup.

>HERE< is what current NHL goalies did between the ages of 18 and 26

Craig Anderson is the lone goalie that posted lower numbers and turned out to be pretty OK. That said, his SV% numbers have average or better in 8 of 11 NHL seasons. Pav is 1 for 7.

So when do we start to get concerned that there won't be an upgrade in goal for a few years, and instead, the team will continue to ride Pavs, to mediocre results, until his contract term is down to a year or so - making it easier to move.

But in the meantime, we play the crap out of him, trying to get the most out of him, but the playoffs remain just out of reach.

Teams just can't afford to have sub-par goaltending. This isn't the 80's.

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Screw writing a dump load here and at AIH...

Here are my thoughts:

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2013...e-goaltender-winnipeg-jets-deserves-but-needs

Good read, even better title!

Whoever comes up with a photoshop of Al Montoya as Batman will be my favourite poster forever.

 

[truck]

So when do we start to get concerned that there won't be an upgrade in goal for a few years, and instead, the team will continue to ride Pavs, to mediocre results, until his contract term is down to a year or so - making it easier to move.

But in the meantime, we play the crap out of him, trying to get the most out of him, but the playoffs remain just out of reach.

Teams just can't afford to have sub-par goaltending. This isn't the 80's.

I had that concern immediately upon hearing he signed his deal.

 

[garret9]

Good read, even better title!

Whoever comes up with a photoshop of Al Montoya as Batman will be my favourite poster forever.

Oh no you reminded me of something I forgot to do!!

Sorry YYZ... I forgot to incorporate it: