BENCH Pavelec Thread!

[truck]

Key note: Pavelec doesn't suck. Top 45 goalie in the world is pretty impressive. He just isn't top 15 which is unfortunate for us.

Pav sucks!*





*relative to the top end of NHL starters

 

[Guardian17]

When Mikka Kiprosoff was traded to the Flames, he was terrible at playing the puck.

Darryl Sutter ordered him and the Flames goalie coach to work on it to get better.

Eventually, Kiprosoff was one of the best puck handling goalies in the league.

The Jets need to get Pavelec to work on it with the goalie coach.

And while they're at it, work on his rebound control.

 

[hockey-brent]

Best would have been signing Thomas Greiss (1 year, $750K) or Anton Khudobin (1 year, $800K) in the offseason.

...but I guess that was too obvious.

Sounds like the Bombers upcoming approach to QBs, going after a cheaper "potential" starter. I'd rather fill that gap now with someone proven. We have a lot of solid goaltending prospects coming up...

 

[JetsTrueNorth]

Honestly if Kane and Buff don't give away the puck last night in OT does this thread exist? A one timer from 30 feet away after a give away. I'm not sure you can assign the blame to Pavelec for that goal. There's a lot more wrong with the team defensively that is more concerning than this.

[mod] This game is a team sport, and in every sport turnovers are costly. Our blueline is constantly giving up the puck and giving high percentage scoring opportunities to the opposition. Aside from our obvious blueline issues, our top 6 forwards scare NO ONE IN THIS LEAGUE!!!!!

2 months ago I guarantee that 95% of this board had never heard of Carter Hutton. Yet today he looks like Patrick Roy.

I have no problem with seeing more of Montoya in net, but for those that are wanting Pavelec traded based on his performance this year you have clearly never played the game.

 

[EpicGingy]

Sounds like the Bombers upcoming approach to QBs, going after a cheaper "potential" starter. I'd rather fill that gap now with someone proven. We have a lot of solid goaltending prospects coming up...

And most of them are several years off. It's not about the quick fix, it's about fostering competition now.

 

[White Out 403*]

Oh please, threads like this exist on every sport forum. Fans hate it when their highly paid players **** the bed.

I've come to the conclusion that the discussion on wether Pav's is good or bad is pretty pointless at this juncture (late to the party, i know).

Anyone who still firmly beleives pav's is currently an average to above average goal tender must subscribe to the following:

1.Does not believe in the merit of sv% as a statistic
2.Does not believe mountains of research that shows team defence has minimal effect on goalie performance
3. Allows visually appealing saves to inflate their worth of the goaltender (this is a illogical, as we don't watch other goaltenders as much as pav so it's impossible to determine whether the amount of said saves [regardless of their actual value] is any higher/better then other average-above average goaltenders)

I cannot agree with these pretenses. With that, there will never be an understanding between myself and those who hold these views as we have different concepts of reality. If you accept these things as truths and are not willing to consider alternatives then there is no point in arguing.

I am not willing to consider these above three points as they are beliefs with no evidence and in fact (in most cases) there is evidence supporting the contrary.



All that being said

I was excited at the start of the year as Pavelec was playing well and I was hopefull it would continue- it hasn't.

I would like to see Monty start more, not because i think Monty's great (though the rebound/puck control arguments that have been made are interesting points i hadn't considered) but because Pavelec has certainly not been good enough to warrant the number of starts he gets. Our backup would literally have to be a a historic .85 or less goal tender to continue giving Pavelec the start ratio he has.

At the end of the day I want this team to win. If Pavelec comes out our next game (and every game there after) like a .916 goalie i would be ecstatic.

Also at the end of the day, unfortunately, i'm realistic and I recognize the likelihood of this happening is extremely low.

In closing, i also really wish we'd picked up khudobin/greiss/anyone with an obvious track record to challenge pav. I also hope we do something to remedy the situation this off season if Pavelec does not improve.

I think that pretty much sums up the debate. Kudos.

 

[truck]

Sounds like the Bombers upcoming approach to QBs, going after a cheaper "potential" starter. I'd rather fill that gap now with someone proven. We have a lot of solid goaltending prospects coming up...

Both signed for backup money - marginally more than what Monty got.

I am not saying either guy was a sure fire fix, but if you are signing a backup, there is no reason not to to sign one with upside. It is a no lose proposition.

All of the Jets quality goaltending prospects are 3-4 years out - if they ever make the cut. Goalies generally take 4-6 years post draft to make the NHL. Holtby is the youngest quality starter in the NHL and he is 24 (established himself at 23). Very few break in and do much within the first 4 years of their draft and 5 or 6 is more common.

 

[Jet]

Best would have been signing Thomas Greiss (1 year, $750K) or Anton Khudobin (1 year, $800K) in the offseason.

...but I guess that was too obvious.

The problem is that we have a HC that is out to lunch when it comes to goaltending so those guys would most likely be wasted here anyways.

People are saying a that Montoya is no better than Pavelec etc. etc. and that may be true. My problems are twofold. Firstly, what could have Montoya done better to earn more starts and trust from Noel? Yes he did struggle in a couple of relief appearances last season but as a starter has been excellent. He has earned the chance to at least start more games. Secondly, Noel has no idea when to give Pav a break or sit him when he's playing poorly. He's like the goose who laid the golden egg. He isn't Brodeur and shouldn't be played like him.

I have to say at this point my frustration with Pavelec is at least 50% on Noel.

 

[BigZ65]

Both signed for backup money - marginally more than what Monty got.

I am not saying either guy was a sure fire fix, but if you are signing a backup, there is no reason not to to sign one with upside. It is a no lose proposition.

All of the Jets quality goaltending prospects are 3-4 years out - if they ever make the cut. Goalies generally take 4-6 years post draft to make the NHL. Holtby is the youngest quality starter in the NHL and he is 24 (established himself at 23). Very few break in and do much within the first 4 years of their draft and 5 or 6 is more common.

That's the frustrating part to me. Clearly as an organization they have very little confidence in Montoya. Let's say Pavelec is having a great season to this point, we're 3rd in our division and he has a 2.30 GAA and a .915 save percentage. Patrick Roy starts a brawl on Sunday and Pavelec tears his ACL while pivoting to deliver a knockout punch to Semyon Varlamov. Pavelec is done for the season. Who plays the next 70 games in goal? We have a middling prospect in Pasquale, and we have a guy that we have no confidence in, Montoya. At that point, the season is over. We need more than one goalie who can play, regardless of Pavelec's performance.

 

[tbcwpg]

Oh please, threads like this exist on every sport forum. Fans hate it when their highly paid players **** the bed.

I've come to the conclusion that the discussion on wether Pav's is good or bad is pretty pointless at this juncture (late to the party, i know).

Anyone who still firmly beleives pav's is currently an average to above average goal tender must subscribe to the following:

1.Does not believe in the merit of sv% as a statistic
2.Does not believe mountains of research that shows team defence has minimal effect on goalie performance
3. Allows visually appealing saves to inflate their worth of the goaltender (this is a illogical, as we don't watch other goaltenders as much as pav so it's impossible to determine whether the amount of said saves [regardless of their actual value] is any higher/better then other average-above average goaltenders)

I cannot agree with these pretenses. With that, there will never be an understanding between myself and those who hold these views as we have different concepts of reality. If you accept these things as truths and are not willing to consider alternatives then there is no point in arguing.

I am not willing to consider these above three points as they are beliefs with no evidence and in fact (in most cases) there is evidence supporting the contrary.



All that being said

I was excited at the start of the year as Pavelec was playing well and I was hopefull it would continue- it hasn't.

I would like to see Monty start more, not because i think Monty's great (though the rebound/puck control arguments that have been made are interesting points i hadn't considered) but because Pavelec has certainly not been good enough to warrant the number of starts he gets. Our backup would literally have to be a a historic .85 or less goal tender to continue giving Pavelec the start ratio he has.

At the end of the day I want this team to win. If Pavelec comes out our next game (and every game there after) like a .916 goalie i would be ecstatic.

Also at the end of the day, unfortunately, i'm realistic and I recognize the likelihood of this happening is extremely low.

In closing, i also really wish we'd picked up khudobin/greiss/anyone with an obvious track record to challenge pav. I also hope we do something to remedy the situation this off season if Pavelec does not improve.

I think some people are misconstruing points from the other side, which is why there's still a "debate". I don't know anyone that's argued Pavelec is an above average goalie. I think many feel he's being excessively targeted for the faults of this team when there are plenty of other things to criticize. He's just the "easy target". I don't think it's personal for most (although I think someone has a personal issue with him as well, not going into much detail), but the problem is that many of those critical of Pavelec are not commenting on possibly other issues. A lot of us are including Pavelec in a list of many problems, but are attacked when we (seemingly) don't single out Pavelec as the sole reason the team is losing.

 

[White Out 403*]

I think some people are misconstruing points from the other side, which is why there's still a "debate". I don't know anyone that's argued Pavelec is an above average goalie. I think many feel he's being excessively targeted for the faults of this team when there are plenty of other things to criticize. He's just the "easy target". I don't think it's personal for most (although I think someone has a personal issue with him as well, not going into much detail), but the problem is that many of those critical of Pavelec are not commenting on possibly other issues. A lot of us are including Pavelec in a list of many problems, but are attacked when we (seemingly) don't single out Pavelec as the sole reason the team is losing.

So lets end the debate, in the NHL where do you rank Pavelec in terms of starting goaltenders? Top 5? Top 15? Bottom half? Bottom 5? Where do you rank Pavelec, let's just end the argument now and begin an age of sanity.

 

[Gm0ney]

So lets end the debate, in the NHL where do you rank Pavelec in terms of starting goaltenders? Top 5? Top 15? Bottom half? Bottom 5? Where do you rank Pavelec, let's just end the argument now and begin an age of sanity.

Do we have to come to a consensus here, or...?

I'd rank him in the Top 50...everyone agree?

 

[buggs]

The problem is that we have a HC that is out to lunch when it comes to goaltending so those guys would most likely be wasted here anyways.

People are saying a that Montoya is no better than Pavelec etc. etc. and that may be true. My problems are twofold. Firstly, what could have Montoya done better to earn more starts and trust from Noel? Yes he did struggle in a couple of relief appearances last season but as a starter has been excellent. He has earned the chance to at least start more games. Secondly, Noel has no idea when to give Pav a break or sit him when he's playing poorly. He's like the goose who laid the golden egg. He isn't Brodeur and shouldn't be played like him.

I have to say at this point my frustration with Pavelec is at least 50% on Noel.

Ayup, this works. Love the line regarding Brodeur. Pavs hasn't been awful but he hasn't been stellar either. He needs to be hungry, not assured of playing time. Montoya isn't The Answer but does deserve more playing time, upwards of 25% of the games. If he gets hot, ride him. Just for a couple of games. And for the love of all things hockey, don't play Pavs back to back.

 

[LowEnd88]

The problem is that we have a HC that is out to lunch when it comes to goaltending so those guys would most likely be wasted here anyways.

People are saying a that Montoya is no better than Pavelec etc. etc. and that may be true. My problems are twofold. Firstly, what could have Montoya done better to earn more starts and trust from Noel? Yes he did struggle in a couple of relief appearances last season but as a starter has been excellent. He has earned the chance to at least start more games. Secondly, Noel has no idea when to give Pav a break or sit him when he's playing poorly. He's like the goose who laid the golden egg. He isn't Brodeur and shouldn't be played like him.

I have to say at this point my frustration with Pavelec is at least 50% on Noel.

Definitely agree with this post. I think Pavelec is capable of succeeding (average sv%) if he has fewer starts. The main problem i have is with what coaching is expecting of him.

Also, i don't feel like we ever really gave Montoya a full chance, so what is the harm in starting him more if were already losing so many games?

 

[Blue Shakehead]

As resident **** disturber, I believe it's my duty to point out that Ondrej Pavelec put up virtually the same or worse numbers than Marek Pinc, Marek Schwarz and Tomas Vosvrda in the Czech beer league there during the lockout.

So I think saying he's the 45th best goaltender in the world is a bit of a stretch. He's probably in the top 200 though.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Do we have to come to a consensus here, or...?

I'd rank him in the Top 50...everyone agree?

Yes. Glad that's done with.

 

[tbcwpg]

So lets end the debate, in the NHL where do you rank Pavelec in terms of starting goaltenders? Top 5? Top 15? Bottom half? Bottom 5? Where do you rank Pavelec, let's just end the argument now and begin an age of sanity.

Bottom third, I'd say. I don't buy the 40th in SV% argument since it includes goalies who don't play relatively the same amount of games as Pavelec. Goaltending is hard to rank, just like any player, so my spot for him between 21-30 would fluctuate on any given night.

The main point is that he is not the only problem. Those who don't like Pavelec don't really point any other problems out, so what else are we supposed to think about your reasoning why the team is stuck in neutral? Lots of people are on this crusade against him that other, glaring problems are being ignored. Powerplay? Garbage. Breaking out of their own zone? Garbage. Defensive zone gaffes? Hilariously awful. The TEAM is awful. Benching Pavelec for Montoya will likely accomplish next to nil. If he does well? Then I'll happily eat my words because it's an improvement. I don't think changing from Pavelec to Montoya solves the greater problem on this team.

 

[mzappa]

This. Was surprised you weren't the OP!!

Admit it. When you clicked on this thread you were shocked I didn't start it.

 

[mzappa]

Sure top 50. Alex Brink and Justin Goltz are top-75. Oops wrong thread/sport.

Do we have to come to a consensus here, or...?

I'd rank him in the Top 50...everyone agree?

 

[Grind]

I think some people are misconstruing points from the other side, which is why there's still a "debate". I don't know anyone that's argued Pavelec is an above average goalie. I think many feel he's being excessively targeted for the faults of this team when there are plenty of other things to criticize. He's just the "easy target". I don't think it's personal for most (although I think someone has a personal issue with him as well, not going into much detail), but the problem is that many of those critical of Pavelec are not commenting on possibly other issues. A lot of us are including Pavelec in a list of many problems, but are attacked when we (seemingly) don't single out Pavelec as the sole reason the team is losing.

I guess my problem is I haven't seen these posts (the ones saying pavelec is always the only thing wrong with this team). yes he gets blamed for loosing the game all on his own (occasionally by most, constantly by 1 or 2 people), but in some of those games he did lose them.

What I have seen pointed out, frequently and accurately, is that had we had average to above average "statistical" goaltending the last two years, we would have made the playoffs.

Meanwhile, if you don't follow my "three commandments" on the second page then replacing Pavelec though not necessarily the "only" thing wrong with this team, is probably the easiest/most reasonable to fix.

alternative solutions: acquiring players/systems that allow us to score goals at a rate capable of overcoming mediocre goaltending ( a-la Pitsburgh, Washington, Philly).



I don't know how you can logically state that acquiring 1 or 2 well above average offensive forwards who are in demand by 30 teams, or for a total of 180 positions, Is a better use of our energy then acquiring 1 playe, who is only average, and is only in demand for 30 positions leaguewide.



I understand there are other problems, but Pavelec is the biggest and would be the most cost effective to fix.


edit: also, despite these things you've pointed out, the jets perform by other indicators at a near league average toa bove league average level (besides power play), including chances for vs against, 5v5 chances, etc. Your right they do have defensive zone gaffe's and bad breakouts, but inspite of those, they still manage to be an average to above team in predicative performance stats.

thus, it's easier to improve the one aspect that is below average and make it average then it is to try and improve the above average aspects to well above average.

 

[surixon]

I guess my problem is I haven't seen these posts (the ones saying pavelec is always the only thing wrong with this team). yes he gets blamed for loosing the game all on his own (occasionally by most, constantly by 1 or 2 people), but in some of those games he did lose them.

What I have seen pointed out, frequently and accurately, is that had we had average to above average "statistical" goaltending the last two years, we would have made the playoffs.

Meanwhile, if you don't follow my "three commandments" on the second page then replacing Pavelec though not necessarily the "only" thing wrong with this team, is probably the easiest/most reasonable to fix.

alternative solutions: acquiring players/systems that allow us to score goals at a rate capable of overcoming mediocre goaltending ( a-la Pitsburgh, Washington, Philly).



I don't know how you can logically state that acquiring 1 or 2 well above average offensive forwards who are in demand by 30 teams, or for a total of 180 positions, Is a better use of our energy then acquiring 1 playe, who is only average, and is only in demand for 30 positions leaguewide.



I understand there are other problems, but Pavelec is the biggest and would be the most cost effective to fix.


edit: also, despite these things you've pointed out, the jets perform by other indicators at a near league average toa bove league average level (besides power play), including chances for vs against, 5v5 chances, etc. Your right they do have defensive zone gaffe's and bad breakouts, but inspite of those, they still manage to be an average to above team in predicative performance stats.

thus, it's easier to improve the one aspect that is below average and make it average then it is to try and improve the above average aspects to well above average.

This!

 

[Analyst365]

Oh how I long for the days when it was all James Wright's fault ....

 

[tbcwpg]

I guess my problem is I haven't seen these posts (the ones saying pavelec is always the only thing wrong with this team). yes he gets blamed for loosing the game all on his own (occasionally by most, constantly by 1 or 2 people), but in some of those games he did lose them.

What I have seen pointed out, frequently and accurately, is that had we had average to above average "statistical" goaltending the last two years, we would have made the playoffs.

Meanwhile, if you don't follow my "three commandments" on the second page then replacing Pavelec though not necessarily the "only" thing wrong with this team, is probably the easiest/most reasonable to fix.

alternative solutions: acquiring players/systems that allow us to score goals at a rate capable of overcoming mediocre goaltending ( a-la Pitsburgh, Washington, Philly).



I don't know how you can logically state that acquiring 1 or 2 well above average offensive forwards who are in demand by 30 teams, or for a total of 180 positions, Is a better use of our energy then acquiring 1 playe, who is only average, and is only in demand for 30 positions leaguewide.



I understand there are other problems, but Pavelec is the biggest and would be the most cost effective to fix.


edit: also, despite these things you've pointed out, the jets perform by other indicators at a near league average toa bove league average level (besides power play), including chances for vs against, 5v5 chances, etc. Your right they do have defensive zone gaffe's and bad breakouts, but inspite of those, they still manage to be an average to above team in predicative performance stats.

thus, it's easier to improve the one aspect that is below average and make it average then it is to try and improve the above average aspects to well above average.

All fair points but I'd say that replacing Pavelec is probably not the most cost-effective way to improve the team. Being able to break out of your own zone, and not being lazy in the defensive zone will not only vastly improve the team, but are also free to fix. Your only other alternative of acquiring expensive top 6 forwards is disingenuous. Also, actually getting a better starter than Pavelec will cost more than market value for a decent goalie, plus we'll have this goalie on the books for awhile anyway.

I don't know if anyone has outright come out and say Pavelec is the only thing wrong with this team, but he gets the most attention, and in fact many don't comment on any other issue, positive or negative. In the last PGT he's the hot topic. Kane's lazy flip and Buff's horrible turnover are barely mentioned at all, neither is that Kane screened Pavelec after his giveaway in OT. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether he's the biggest problem. Easiest to fix, maybe due to it being just one position, but the return on that investment would be poor, based off of the way the team plays in front of him, in my opinion.

Also, which games has he lost this year? He lost a single point in the shootout against Washington, but I don't think you can point to any other game they've lost this season and blame him for that.

 

[Grind]

All fair points but I'd say that replacing Pavelec is probably not the most cost-effective way to improve the team. Being able to break out of your own zone, and not being lazy in the defensive zone will not only vastly improve the team, but are also free to fix. Your only other alternative of acquiring expensive top 6 forwards is disingenuous. Also, actually getting a better starter than Pavelec will cost more than market value for a decent goalie, plus we'll have this goalie on the books for awhile anyway.

I don't know if anyone has outright come out and say Pavelec is the only thing wrong with this team, but he gets the most attention, and in fact many don't comment on any other issue, positive or negative. In the last PGT he's the hot topic. Kane's lazy flip and Buff's horrible turnover are barely mentioned at all, neither is that Kane screened Pavelec after his giveaway in OT. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether he's the biggest problem. Easiest to fix, maybe due to it being just one position, but the return on that investment would be poor, based off of the way the team plays in front of him, in my opinion.

Also, which games has he lost this year? He lost a single point in the shootout against Washington, but I don't think you can point to any other game they've lost this season and blame him for that.

You've missed my point.

I know we don't break out perfectly (i've noticed a huge improvement in this over the last 3 games).

And i know we have d zone turn overs.

My point is, despite the way we see these things, the team is still performing above average in what we'd hope fixing these things would improve (chances for vs against).

Other teams sometimes have trouble getting out of there zone as well. I don't believe this team is good enough that their zone exits are "keeping htem down" at a level of above average, and that if they'd only fix this problem/d-gaffe's what have you, that they'd be a top 6 posession team in the league (which is what would be necessary to overcome our subpar goaltending)


That's what i'm saying.

Maybe it is. maybe we actually have a forward core with the same firepower as the teams i mentioned and there just being misused/breaking out poorly, but i find that highly unlikely.


My thing on top flight forwards is not disengenous. Very few teams outchance their opponents to a degree that can make up for goaltender performances at Pavelecs level.

I do not believe "system fixe's" will move our team into that territory. We've got horses capable of doing more then Noel was earlier with them, thats for sure, but they are Not the Flyers/penguins/caps horses- teams that have hsitoricaly had a skater cores that can achieve wins even with subpar goaltending behind them.

 

[tbcwpg]

You've missed my point.

I know we don't break out perfectly (i've noticed a huge improvement in this over the last 3 games).

And i know we have d zone turn overs.

My point is, despite the way we see these things, the team is still performing above average in what we'd hope fixing these things would improve (chances for vs against).

Other teams sometimes have trouble getting out of there zone as well. I don't believe this team is good enough that their zone exits are "keeping htem down" at a level of above average, and that if they'd only fix this problem/d-gaffe's what have you, that they'd be a top 6 posession team in the league (which is what would be necessary to overcome our subpar goaltending)


That's what i'm saying.

Maybe it is. maybe we actually have a forward core with the same firepower as the teams i mentioned and there just being misused/breaking out poorly, but i find that highly unlikely.


My thing on top flight forwards is not disengenous. Very few teams outchance their opponents to a degree that can make up for goaltender performances at Pavelecs level.

I do not believe "system fixe's" will move our team into that territory. We've got horses capable of doing more then Noel was earlier with them, thats for sure, but they are Not the Flyers/penguins/caps horses- teams that have hsitoricaly had a skater cores that can achieve wins even with subpar goaltending behind them.

Well, I'll pull a Resurrection here and ask where you think a goalie with a league average SV% would put this team over where it is now. Because our GF/G stat looks pretty bad too. 20th in the league right now.

And I'm not even asking for system fixes. This team gives up the puck like it's candy on Halloween night in its own end. Maybe raise your head up and look where the pass is going. Maybe try to control the puck a bit before swinging your stick around and giving up a pizza Oduya would be proud of. They gave St. Louis 2 goals last week. I meant your comment was disingenuous because it basically stated there were only two solutions, when there are more than that.