Rumor: AVS Proposals/Rumors/Free Agents & Related Topics 2016-17 Part IV

[ABasin]

Patrick will be in the NHL next year, I'm not going to split hairs about what kind of role, that's up to the team.

That's great, cherry pick some quotes. Doesn't matter that some of us follow the draft class on a daily basis.

When is it time for Colorado to draft a defenseman with its first draft pick?

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

When is it time for Colorado to draft a defenseman with its first draft pick?

When he's the best player available for the Avs to take.

 

[Nalens Oga]

What are the odds that we can trade for a 2nd top-10 pick? I don't expect a Chychrun or even Fabbro quality dman to be available in picks 15-20 this year so would have to be a 2nd top-10.

And I absolutely do hope we get the 2nd pick rather than the first. Hopefully that forces them to draft a dman and lets Arizona or Vegas take Patrick which would work out fine. It's not like Patrick is McDavid or the same quality as a centre like Matthews so that BPA is BS here imo, we aren't getting a potential top pairing dman via trade so gotta draft him somehow.

 

[Goulet17]

I keep seeing people discussing Patrick and getting their hopes up to select him, and I can't help but think they really do not understand the lottery system or the odds. Unless I am mistaken, the Avs would only have a 20% chance of selecting first overall even if they finish last.

 

[tigervixxxen]

That #1 is not Liljegren so I'm not exactly sure what we are supposed to do. Just because he's the highest ranked defenseman in a draft doesn't mean that's what kind of player he is. I also wouldn't make assumptions about guys like Foote, Hague, Valimaki or Heiskanen without seeing them. Just assume they aren't any good? Sure a trade down might be an option but it might not be.

 

[Nalens Oga]

Do you mean #1 dman? There is NEVER a guarantee that a highly drafted dman will be a #1. Hedman and Ekblad were the last closest and Ekblad is closer to a #2-3 right now and Hedman took like 4 seasons to get to being a #1.

Seth Jones was expected to be but didn't, that's OKAY though. You don't need a guaranteed #1 but you need to take a chance and I'd be happy with a guy like Seth Jones in my top-4. These guys can at least play 20-25 minutes and move the puck, their value in a trade is pretty much equal to a #1 so hard to acquire either way unless you draft them. Columbus is successful because they have Jones/Werenski/Savard/Johnson/Murray and none of them are a proper #1. I'd take that over Nolan Patrick at this point. Where is it coming from in our current system? Meloche or Bigras? I'd be happy if they end up being a #3-4 and Zadorov will likely be a 2nd pairing that can play up if need be, I'd like to think that the better dmen in a draft have at minimum the potential of Zadorov.

 

[Avs44]

I keep seeing people discussing Patrick and getting their hopes up to select him, and I can't help but think they really do not understand the lottery system or the odds. Unless I am mistaken, the Avs would only have a 20% chance of selecting first overall even if they finish last.

Odds are even worse than that. There are 31 teams now, so it will be a 17.9% chance for the team finishing dead last.

 

[Alex Jones]

I still think Seth Jones will be a number one, and a very very good one. I would be surprised at this point if he doesn't end up as the best player from his draft.

 

[Goulet17]

Odds are even worse than that. There are 31 teams now, so it will be a 17.9% chance for the team finishing dead last.

Good point.

 

[Balthazar]

Odds are even worse than that. There are 31 teams now, so it will be a 17.9% chance for the team finishing dead last.

Assuming we finish dead last, we still have only a 48% chance to draft in the top 3. That's extremely bad.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

 

[Goulet17]

Assuming we finish dead last, we still have only 48% chance to draft in the top 3. That's extremely bad.

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Yeah, we could be looking at a more likely scenario of drafting 4-6 in a draft that may be lacking in elite talent at the top compared to the last few years. The Avs should still pick up a nice prospect, regardless.

 

[Pokecheque]

And that is why I do not want them to just tank it. They need to put some sort of effort toward improving the team long-term RIGHT ****ING NOW.

Basically, trade the old and done players or, failing that, bubble wrap-'em. If it takes sending Francois Beauchemin home for the remainder of the season unless he gets traded somewhere, so be it. If not, then it's a buyout and another year of a full cap hit of a literally nonexistent player (and someone should get fired for that). Shove Soderberg up to the press box for a game or three. Put him on a 2nd line wing or something, maybe he gets productive enough to fool someone into trading for him or Vegas actually takes him. Of course if the benching doesn't get the message through, send him to the press box again until he figures it out.

Call up the kids and call 'em up NOW. As TV has readily pointed out, keeping them on the farm actually isn't ideal given how horribly banged up the Rampage is and how terrible the AHL vets have been. I'm sure San Antonio won't be thrilled with being depleted even further but them's the breaks. I'd hold off on recalling Compher and Bigras until they get their legs back under them and Bigras fully regenerates that missing hand, but once that's out of the way, call them up too.

I think they definitely need to move Grigorenko. Maybe it'll happen for him, maybe it won't, but it won't happen in Colorado. If there are offers for other depth players (Comeau, Wiercioch, Tyutin, etc.) then they too should be sent on their merry way. And while I really don't want to see core players moved, they should always be looking for any and all ways to improve the club, and that means entertaining any and all offers on all players. If a really good offer is on the table for one of them, then yes, pull the trigger. But it better be damned good, not a bunch of disparate pieces that MIGHT turn into something good.

As I have always maintained, I don't expect a SC contender overnight, but I want to see progress toward the goal. Right now what I'm seeing is a severe regression, and that is unacceptable.

Lastly, quick ******* around, Colorado and get Tim Army outta there already. The power play has been an abysmal failure under his direction, it is long past time to try someone new, even in an interim measure.

 

[henchman21]

Jones is a #1. He looks excellent all around right now.

 

[tigervixxxen]

To be fair, they've got some bodies back and look like a real team in SA. But that can change in a weekend down there. Plus although I'd still call them competitive they aren't a playoff team. Compher has looked really good and not someone who missed 5 weeks of hockey. I didn't think he was ready earlier but it's going to be tough to just wait it out for 2 months to bring him up.

I know they can't just dump everyone at the curb or tell them not to come back after the break but they have the time now to do something, they should use it. As I said earlier, they just possibly can't roll out that same morose lineup night after night anymore. Something has to change. Even if they don't win, it's about not putting death warmed over out in front of their fans. They owe them that at least.

 

[S E P H]

Jones is an amazing #2 right now, but I think people, like me are quite shocked at his development path than anything else. He was always a defenceman in juniors who had superb offensive IQ, but struggled defensively by watching the puck a bit too much and not contributing enough physically.

I always thought he would be posting more numbers offensive than what he has thus far. I also thought he would be struggling more defensively because he had such good offensive tool-set he would have focused on that much more. Now though, his development has been almost opposite to his junior style. He is an absolutely freak of nature defensively, almost like a lite version of Ryan Suter. He has a extremely effective defensive stick in the corners and reads the play so well he's normally one step ahead the forecheck. Offensively, he isn't as good as a powerplay quarterback he was in juniors. Additionally, I don't think his shot isn't as heavy or accurate as what I saw in juniors compared to what I've seen in the NHL.

Whatever the case is, I think his shot will get better and his points will come eventually. Will he ever post the numbers Karlsson does being in the top 10 in overall point total? Probably not. Will he have the same impact as Shea Weber does in his veteran, calming, but intense personality? No, but there is no doubt he will be a #1 in this league and very good one at that.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Very cute that people think this team is "tanking." This isn't intentional like a few years ago. We aren't trying to lose. We just suck, period. We will finish dead last in the NHL because we are terrible in all facets of the game, not because we are "tanking."

 

[Pokecheque]

Very cute that people think this team is "tanking." This isn't intentional like a few years ago. We aren't trying to lose. We just suck, period. We will finish dead last in the NHL because we are terrible in all facets of the game, not because we are "tanking."

Well of course it isn't intentional. This is a nearly capped-out team. There's no way they meant for the squad to be this bad. This is not part of some grand scheme. They screwed up, and they know it.

However, if they choose to stand pat much longer, there can be no other explanation. And I think that would be an egregious mistake. You absolutely cannot just sit back and say "come what may" at this point. You have to do SOMETHING to save this season or at least steer the ship back on course, because right now it's three sheets to the wind, and both the fans and players are fed up.

 

[Avs71]

Jones is a #1. He looks excellent all around right now.

How can a defenceman who has 0 power play points be a #1?

 

[Iceberg]

Well of course it isn't intentional. This is a nearly capped-out team. There's no way they meant for the squad to be this bad. This is not part of some grand scheme. They screwed up, and they know it.

However, if they choose to stand pat much longer, there can be no other explanation. And I think that would be an egregious mistake. You absolutely cannot just sit back and say "come what may" at this point. You have to do SOMETHING to save this season or at least steer the ship back on course, because right now it's three sheets to the wind, and both the fans and players are fed up.

You can't save this season, but you can save the next decade if you blow it up right now.

We became the Oilers but there is no McDavid in sight.

 

[Don Corleone]

You can't save this season, but you can save the next decade if you blow it up right now.

If only management shared this opinion. I really don't get people who say that we should keep the core and build on that. The core is just OK at best. Not a single number 1 D or even one star player. Additionally, EJ and Varly are nearing 30. I also think that Landeskog will not be more than a 2nd line winger by the time he is 30. Barrie is more of a number 3 D and then you have Mack and Duchene who are the best of the group but still not stars in the league.

There is nothing special about that group and only Mack has the potential to improve as others are either at their peak or declining. 5 years from now that core will look very underwhelming and people want to build on that? This is the perfect situation to trade nearly everyone as they still hold high value, arguably it should have been done last summer. The worst possible thing would be to do what Sakic has been doing all along, trying to win. Drafting in the top 5 and then hoping to rebound and make the playoffs and then miss on franchise talent in next years draft would be really bad. There is no way to become successful in the NHL without elite talent and the Avs have none. Obviously there is more that needs to be done but without the main building blocks the entire thing will come crashing down sooner or later.

On a positive note, the Avs are in a excellent position if they did suck up their pride and started a proper rebuild. The current youth is much better than what the Avs had when they bottomed out the first time and drafted Duchene. Add a top 10 pick this year and that group is light years ahead of what we had in 2009.

Trade: Duchene, Landeskog, EJ, Barrie and Varly

Build around: Rantanen, Jost, Mack, Zadorov, Greer, Compher, Bigras, Meloche and Pickard

Trading our current core would get back several grade A prospects and high draft picks without any doubt, someone like Varly does not hold much value but the others do. Then add those assets with a few high picks at the next few draft years and the Avs would be in the best place they have been since the glory years. The only problem is that it would require management to accept that they need to suck intentionally for a few years and I am not sold that they will ever have the balls to do so. If they do wimp out and try to be competitive next year, they will miss out the top talent in the draft and the core will once again be a year older. Then 5 years down the line we will be in the same situation as now wondering what went wrong.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

I don't think they would ever trade all of our core players, but you're right we would get massive returns for these players and make our re-build way faster by doing that, instead of keeping them and keeping up this "act" of being decent team. It would take a lot of balls to trade all those top guys.

Maybe they will trade Varly and Barrie but that's it.

EJ is a leader. He sacrifices his body for the team. I think he is worth more to this team than in a trade. At least I think so. He is quote injury prone, because of it, but I like him as a good character guy.

Barrie is a flashy guy, who most of the gms drool about. While we might think he sucks, in a league where it's so hard to put up points or create offense, Barrie is excellent in the eyes of others.

Varly is another suspect because we have to choose between Pickard or Varly. I would trade Varly because the salary and his injury problems. I think Varly is better but he is not that much better that we should pay him 6 mil and Pickard 2 mil or whatever he us going to get with his next contract.

I wouldn't even think about trading Landy. He is still very young and I wouldn't mind keeping him. He and Duchene I would only move, If someone made really really good offer.

 

[henchman21]

How can a defenceman who has 0 power play points be a #1?

That really isn't his role there. Columbus normally only plays 1 D on their PP and Jones is on the 2nd unit. Give it time and the points will come though, he has shown he can produce there in the past. People are way too concerned about points with Jones... he will top 30, maybe 40 points this year and that is with missing time with an injury. Along with that he is carrying a 19 year old on the top pairing defensively, anchoring the PK, and pulling all the heavy assignments.

Jones has 12 even strength points in 24 games (the ES points alone are tied for 12th among defensemen... the ES ppg is 3rd among defensmen just after Karlsson and Burns). Werenski has 10 in 30. EJ who a lot of people claim as a low end #1 has 5 in 23. The offense is there and will come on the PP eventually.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I wouldn't call it a concern, Jones is obviously doing just fine but the offense isn't quite what it was advertised at the draft.

 

[henchman21]

I wouldn't call it a concern, Jones is obviously doing just fine but the offense isn't quite what it was advertised at the draft.

The PP points will come (he has shown in the past that he can put up double digits on the PP as he has had 9, 11 and 13 point seasons there). Once those do, the concerns melt away as you combine ~.4-.5 ES points over the season and ~10 PP points. That is a 45-50 point sort of season. His production at ES is up there with the best in the league.

 

[Avs71]

The PP points will come (he has shown in the past that he can put up double digits on the PP as he has had 9, 11 and 13 point seasons there). Once those do, the concerns melt away as you combine ~.4-.5 ES points over the season and ~10 PP points. That is a 45-50 point sort of season. His production at ES is up there with the best in the league.

Reading this is depressing. Thanks, Hench.