Auston Matthews, 60 goal seasons?

[Eat The Rich]

It seems to be a contention among a lot of people here that the Canadian Division has, by a very wide margin, the worst overall defensive play in the NHL. I don't know if I agree, but an awful lot of people do.

If we assume that this is the truth, then it follows logically that players like McDavid, Matthews, and Draisaitl, to name just three, may never again score as many points per game as they have this year, because they will be playing the majority of their games in future seasons against teams that are supposedly tougher defensively than any they played this year.

These top players may not have peaked in their careers, but they'll likely never again get to play as many games against teams as weak defensively as, say, Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver, and Ottawa. These teams comprised more than half the games Matthews played this year. Would he score 60 goals in an 82 game season when 40 to 50 are against these teams? Hell, he'd probably score 70!

Back to normal, against teams like Boston again? Let's see if he gets 40, and take it from there.

Even in normal years he's done it twice. I don't know what point you're trying to make there.

 

[The90]

I don't think I missed your point. I think you might be backpedaling a touch. The thread is about goals in a season, sixty, and about benchmarks season to season with sixty being the hypothetical benchmark. There's no germane reason to talk about the potential of a player's seasonal output by hitching a position of reasonable observer who states that before Matthews (or any other player) hits 60 in a season, that we have to watch him cover 30, 40, then 50 in the SAME season in order to place a bet on 60. What's next an argument that states in order for 20 goal scorers to hit 20, first it's 5, then 10, then 15, then...??? That's...a hard sell.

To the bold, I think you're doing something similar to guaranteeing something (MM% no less) without knowing the facts behind it. You asked (rhetorically) if people wondered how many 70 goal seasons he'd have or if they wondered if he he'd hit 60, etc...? Well, it reads like you're claiming as though it would be unreasonable that people wondered such a thing and positing as an acceptable reality i.e. People didn't wonder about it because it wouldn't have been reasonable to do so.

And to set that record straight, oh yes they did. Mario came into the league as Gretzky's anticipated statistical rival right away. But before he entered the league, as a 15 year old phenom an agent told him to wear 66, to which, Lemieux later stated: "Ninety-nine upside down." the implication being obvious. Lemieux himself for years pointed to Gretzky as the best player, and his idol in fact. But very quickly -- VERY quickly -- Mario Lemiuex was absolutely part and parcel the conversational alter-ego to Gretzky. And the conversation was when, not if, Lemieux would begin to threaten Gretzky's totals.

Our friendly neighbourhood leafs contrarian’s argument is essentially a longer winded ‘hit 50 first’. As if he wouldn’t have had 50 the previous 2 years had it not been for covid. He’s not saying Matthews is bad, he’s taking the negative side of the argument and saying he hasn’t hit 50, while pretending to be neutral. Shocker.

 

[Dache]

It's pretty clear that people are pointing to him not having a 50 goal season as a reason we shouldn't talk about him reaching 60. What you are now talking about is pretty much the same thing, arbitrary numbers set by HF posters. The reality is, 49 goals average over 82 games is more than sufficient to have the 60 goal season discussion.

Yes people are talking about the fact that so far he doesn’t have a 50 goal season. Because he’s being called a 50 goal scorer. You’re the only one acting like that likely 50 goal season needs to be separate from a 60 goal season. People are just saying they want to see him hit 50 first. The vast majority of those are saying they think he will.

 

[Dache]

Our friendly neighbourhood leafs contrarian’s argument is essentially a longer winded ‘hit 50 first’. As if he wouldn’t have had 50 the previous 2 years had it not been for covid. He’s not saying Matthews is bad, he’s taking the negative side of the argument and saying he hasn’t hit 50, while pretending to be neutral. Shocker.

So you’re also going to just ignore that I called him the best goal scorer in the world and easily has the talent to score 50 and very possibly 60, but I’m the one taking the negative stance on something? All you do is attack my posts, and you’ve gotten to the point that you don’t even quote me in it anymore because it doesn’t make any sense and you know it.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Our friendly neighbourhood leafs contrarian’s argument is essentially a longer winded ‘hit 50 first’. As if he wouldn’t have had 50 the previous 2 years had it not been for covid. He’s not saying Matthews is bad, he’s taking the negative side of the argument and saying he hasn’t hit 50, while pretending to be neutral. Shocker.

Yet @Dache isnt wrong. Most figure he’ll hit 50. I do think it’s fair to say let’s see him hit 50 first, which he will, then look towards 60.

 

[The90]

So you’re also going to just ignore that I called him the best goal scorer in the world and easily has the talent to score 50 and very possibly 60, but I’m the one taking the negative stance on something? All you do is attack my posts, and you’ve gotten to the point that you don’t even quote me in it anymore because it doesn’t make any sense and you know it.

No point. You already know exactly what you’re going to say. Games up.

 

[Dache]

No point. You already know exactly what you’re going to say. Games up.

There’s no point cause you know exactly what I’m going to say when you ignore the handful of positive things I say about him and only focus on the one thing that’s not even negative, but just isn’t boasting about him? Well I should hope so.

 

[Garthinater]

Many posters are reading it that way, but many of those posters read as many posts as possible in as negative as possible of a way they can. Every post in here that claims he need to score 50 first I read as it could be in the same season. Why wouldn’t someone be able to beat their best by 11 goals? Or in his case 13, he’ll William Karlsson skipped right over 20 and 30, went straight from 9 to 44. The fact that you though the most likely scenario was that I meant they had to be in separate seasons says everything. There’s absolutely no reason why someone couldn’t go from 49 to 60 goals but you and many leaf fans blindly read it as something much worse for the sake of proving “leaf hate”.

It's amazing how matthews fans are so easily offended.

You don't vote for him in a poll? You're a hater.

You want matthews to score 50 before there's talk about 60? Definitely a hater.

You say matthews is the best goal scorer but that his totals might be slightly inflated due to the north division? The biggest hater of all lmao

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

No point. You already know exactly what you’re going to say. Games up.

It's amazing how matthews fan are so easily offended.

You don't vote for him in a poll? You're a hater.

You want matthews to score 50 before there's talk about 60? Definitely a hater.

You say matthews is the best goal scorer but that his totals might be slightly inflated due to the north division? The biggest hater of all lmao

Lol, true that. Literally can’t say anything about Matthews or the Leafs without being a hater. What’s the point of being on a forum when you’re just going to be like that

 

[The90]

Lol, true that. Literally can’t say anything about Matthews or the Leafs without being a hater. What’s the point of being on a forum when you’re just going to be like that

When a certain posters tries to play the middleman with a compliment and backhanded insult every time he shouldn’t be so upset when he’s called out on it. You see it enough and can recognize it for what it is.

Nobody thinks matthews or the leafs in general are without flaws. But we’re also not going to pretend like the same poster never misses a chance at a back handed compliment.

 

[Saidin]

Shit might as well give Ovi the goal scoring record cause he's on pace to do it...

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

When a certain posters tries to play the middleman with a compliment and backhanded insult every time he shouldn’t be so upset when he’s called out on it. You see it enough and can recognize it for what it is.

Nobody thinks matthews or the leafs in general are without flaws. But we’re also not going to pretend like the same poster never misses a chance at a back handed compliment.

You shouldn't be so upset when he gives level headed takes then. He's not giving backhanded compliments. You're reading into things that are very distorted.

 

[Flukeshot]

I don't like the Leafs, but sure, it'd be cool to see. Mostly because it would likely mean scoring is up in the league as a whole.

 

[Neuf]

Hope we see another 60 goal season. I think people here are underestimating the difficulty. Goal scoring isn't a linear thing. It's scattered, streaky, etc. The jump from 50 to 60 goals is a higher mountain than the jump from 20 to 30, for example.

 

[The90]

You shouldn't be so upset when he gives level headed takes then. He's not giving backhanded compliments. You're reading into things that are very distorted.

Nah. I’m reading into it just fine. Thanks though.

 

[Dache]

When a certain posters tries to play the middleman with a compliment and backhanded insult every time he shouldn’t be so upset when he’s called out on it. You see it enough and can recognize it for what it is.

Nobody thinks matthews or the leafs in general are without flaws. But we’re also not going to pretend like the same poster never misses a chance at a back handed compliment.

What backhanded insult? Let’s see you actually give an example in this thread of anything of the sort. Can’t say I’m surprised at not getting a response @The90

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Yet @Dache isnt wrong. Most figure he’ll hit 50. I do think it’s fair to say let’s see him hit 50 first, which he will, then look towards 60.

Nah, I'm gonna start looking forward to him hitting 60 now with or without your consent

 

[Dache]

Nah, I'm gonna start looking forward to him hitting 60 now with or without your consent

You don’t need consent. Not a single person said you did. But when a thread is started asking people their opinion they should be able to give it without being labelled as a hater for having a reasonable opinion

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Shit might as well give Ovi the goal scoring record cause he's on pace to do it...

(He's actually not - it's very much up in the air)

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

You don’t need consent. Not a single person said you did. But when a thread is started asking people their opinion they should be able to give it without being labelled as a hater for having a reasonable opinion

Don’t tell @The90 this.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

You don’t need consent. Not a single person said you did. But when a thread is started asking people their opinion they should be able to give it without being labelled as a hater for having a reasonable opinion

Are there any Leafs posts you don't respond to? It was a joke BTW. Your analysis is appreciated though.

 

[BLONG7]

If was the key word in the opening post...................If
Has anyone used the If my Aunt had balls, she would be my uncle yet??
All jokes aside, great goalscorer......he will probably get 60 at some point, but you should ask Marner if he will make it happen...cuz without him, not a chance.

 

[Atomos2]

 

[ITM]

Yes, he leads the league but he's only averaging 70 games a year to this point, and this season's scoring pace is really pulling up his gpg average. It went from just under 46 goals/82 to almost 49/82. And given all the questions about how much of this year really reflects McDavid's scoring ability, Matthews has that many more questions about his ability. Next year will be telling whether he's a 50 goal guy or a 60 goal guy.

A few questions then: Last season, when Matthews scored 47 in 70 did that also pull his GPG avg up from previous seasons? And could you include the difference season over season to determine a trendline , mindful that it's not a constant ascent. Secondly, we agree that he's only averaging 70 games a season, for the sake of argument had he averaged said seventy, do you regard a 55 goal season as reason to believe Matthews is more likely than not (should he play one full season) to score 60 goals over 82 games? I think another important question for clarification is, because we're talking about a 23 year old player who is averaging 49 goals a season, why given the company he's keeping is Matthews as likely not to score 60 as he is to score 60?

It's not like anyone is going to invoke Jonathan Cheechoo as Matthews standard comparable, are they? Because that's what the nay side seem to be doing. Denying reasonable implications in favor of preferred false standards. Like noting next year as the year which defines whether he's a 50 or 60 goal guy. Why? He needs one outlier season against a career averaging 49. If he maintains next season it's more likely than not 50. Moreover considering where he's trending season over season. If he's "a 50-goal guy" he will be doing what Ovechkin has done who is "a 50-goal guy" and who has scored 60.

Ninety-one players (I think) have scored 50 goals. But from your calculation, we're not talking about a player who might score 50 once, we're talking about a player that might average 50. From there the comparisons thin to elite company, most of which -- I believe -- have scored 60 goals. That it's described as reasonable to extract Matthews from the apparent company he's keeping is what's irksome to many Leafs fans. Because it necessarily diminishes informed enthusiasm into the hackneyed Leafs bias and the defence of that optimism as "hating".

If the company he's keeping has hit 60, said differently, those not in his company haven't hit 60, why is there an equivocation rather than a presentation of likelihood?

It seems the question is really about durability not ability. I'm sure there, you'll find many Leafs fans echoing in agreement. His health IS a concern. The numbers he's putting up however don't mirror that same cause for concern. Outside the fan base they seem to, for whatever reason, garner more caution than optimism. Nothing wrong with caution except in instances where the numbers confirm a certain outcome if weighed equally with other like comparisons.

So when Leafs fans pull out the advanced stats against Ovechkin and other historic scorers, it's not without a sense of 18-wheeler-itis. Let's shift for a moment, perhaps Arizona has greater organizational PTSD because the heights of championship are non-existent. Leafs Nation, we essentially thrive on myth. We know it happened in the mists of the past, but...what does that actually feel like? the generations repeat. Blind optimism? Only for fourth line saviours, obscure European goalies and October every season. 50 goal scorers, league awards...Rumours in our organization. So this to say, because we now have the genuine article in Auston Matthews, we're ok if the caution is tempered with reason. If qualifying the argument when the comparisons are ridiculed or excluded, that's when the majority of the faithful say enough is enough, because not only do we know the numbers are encouraging, we know the numbers a organizationally historic because our drought is as surfaced as Detroit's success is available to their fan base. Disappointment is what's - sadly - defined our identity as (oddly mismanaged and draft failing) an organization/fan base.

Until now.

We hope.

 

[ITM]

While we're throwing around made up numbers, why not just say he's a 100 goal scorer?

I think he will likely score 60 at some point but people need to stop pretending he's already done it, he's never even hit 50

Well 60 like 100 isn't a made up number. What is made up is that Leafs fans who believe Matthews can score 60 are delusional against facts to the contrary. That he hasnt hit 50 is moot. The majority of 60 goals scorers didn't hit 50 before they hit 60, and only those who hit 60 are considered and not those who only hit 50.

(Funny, because you received a like from Dache who claimed his own argument wasn't yours. That type of gotcha is particularly edifying. So thank you, Dache.)

You don't know if people (ie Leafs fans) are pretending he's hit 60. It's more delusional to claim as much as a fact. Leafs fans (esp. on the Leafs' boards) are providing optimistic opinions because of his numbers not in spite of them. And when others caution said optimism as delusional, they're doing so ignoring the nature of informed opinion and the historic company Matthews is keeping. Could that change? Sure. But the "that" referenced remains historic numbers in elite company. And basing opinions of hope as fan base on said numbers isn't delusional.

But denying said hopeful optimism and describing it as delusional is certainly shabby.