Auston Matthews, 60 goal seasons?

Jul 10, 2003
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Only one player drafted since 2010 has even got to 50 in a season and it wasn't Matthews. I think 50 should be on the radar first.

Why does he need to score 50 first? I have seen many here say that, but none have backed it up with any sort of reasoning?

Let’s use the player you are referencing to, did he need to score 40 first? Did he at least need to score 30 first? Because guess what? He did neither.

And let’s not act like Matthews came out of nowhere with a fluke season. His body of work is more than enough to suggest 60 within reach. If I’m not mistaken, his career average is 49.5 goals per 82 games. That makes it really silly, if not plain desperate, to claim he needs to hit 50 first.
 
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Atomos2

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Jun 28, 2012
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Show me where I denied any of that please. Dude is a fantastic goal scorer, never claimed otherwise.

At the same time you can show me where he scored 50 in a season. I can show you where Drai scored 50.

I dont deal in hypotheticals my man. He's either scored 50 in a season or he hasn't. Everything else is projection. You say he easily would have, I counter with "sure but considering his injury history it's just as likely that he gets hurt and doesn't".

But that's also a hypothetical and just as irrelevant as your projection.

Again.....did he score 50 in a season.

Yes or no?
Is the Rocket Richard a hypothetical or a projection? Because regardless of some weak irrelevant benchmark, Matthews is being awarded a trophy signifying he's the best goal scorer in the NHL this year.

I'd take that over a 50 goal season benchmark shrouded by illogical assumptions and no context.
 

powerbomb

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Apr 6, 2013
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I mean, is it "safe" to say Matthews will break 60-goals, let alone in multiple seasons (I very much question the plural choice by the OP)? No, it's not "safe" to say any of that.

Could he do it? Yeah. He has the talent, obviously. But if you're asking if it's a safe bet, a smart bet, a lock to happen... there are just too many variables that can upend any given season. Matthews was outstanding this year but you can't simply extrapolate those stats across an 82-game season and not acknowledge the difference playing every team and traveling across two countries could make. I think he's poised for a big year in 2021-22 (because why wouldn't he be?), but... yeah, no, not "safe to say" it happens.
 

Dache

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Why does he need to score 50 first? I have seen many here say that, but none have backed it up with any sort of reasoning?

Let’s use the player you are referencing to, did he need to score 40 first? Did he at least need to score 30 first? Because guess what? He did neither.

And let’s not act like Matthews came out of nowhere with a fluke season. His body of work is more than enough to suggest 60 within reach. If I’m not mistaken, his career average is 49.5 goals per 82 games. That makes it really silly, if not plain desperate, to claim he needs to hit 50 first.
I one million percent guarantee that every player that scores 60, scores 50 first and 40 before that and 30 before that.
 

Dache

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Is the Rocket Richard a hypothetical or a projection? Because regardless of some weak irrelevant benchmark, Matthews is being awarded a trophy signifying he's the best goal scorer in the NHL this year.

I'd take that over a 50 goal season benchmark shrouded by illogical assumptions and no context.
I would take that as well. Hell of a season he had. Unfortunately not what this thread is about
 

ITM

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He is talented but do people not realize that whats happening now can most likely be an anomaly? People need to remember that every team is playing the same teams way more then they should. Players are more rested also because of less travel. The question shouldn't be "Can Austin hit 60 goals" It should be "Can Austin replicate what hes done this season in a NORMAL season"

I am a Habs fan and I don't even think my team gets into the playoffs if not for this pandemic.

Well, every team is playing under pandemic conditions of one sort or another. Who knows what happens this season were it a normal season. This season for all intents and purposes is a new normal that's presented challenges in various ways. Travel, etc...Canada is a very big country. I'm not sure what these factors do to ignore the easily verifiable progression Matthews has taken season over season.

Most comparisons to previous leading goal-scorers and most advanced stats manifest that it's not this season that's anomalous -- it's Matthews that's the anomaly. Do a quick review of his season over season progression and relay if you think his progression this season is out of sync with what appears to be a very impressive trajectory.
 

Dache

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You know we are talking seasons but thanks for your contribution.
Why is that what we’re talking about? That’s not what I have been. If next year let’s say he hits 50 in game 65 or so, then now the conversation should shift to 60, but why are we talking about 60 goal seasons before the later is achieved.
 

Jaytee

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It seems to be a contention among a lot of people here that the Canadian Division has, by a very wide margin, the worst overall defensive play in the NHL. I don't know if I agree, but an awful lot of people do.

If we assume that this is the truth, then it follows logically that players like McDavid, Matthews, and Draisaitl, to name just three, may never again score as many points per game as they have this year, because they will be playing the majority of their games in future seasons against teams that are supposedly tougher defensively than any they played this year.

These top players may not have peaked in their careers, but they'll likely never again get to play as many games against teams as weak defensively as, say, Winnipeg, Calgary, Vancouver, and Ottawa. These teams comprised more than half the games Matthews played this year. Would he score 60 goals in an 82 game season when 40 to 50 are against these teams? Hell, he'd probably score 70!

Back to normal, against teams like Boston again? Let's see if he gets 40, and take it from there.
 

ITM

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I one million percent guarantee that every player that scores 60, scores 50 first and 40 before that and 30 before that.

Not a good hill to die on:

Brett Hull scored 41 goals ('88-'89) the season before he scored 72 goals ('89-'90). Pavel Bure scored 34 goals ('91-'92) the season before he went on to score consecutive 60 goal seasons ('92-'93/'93-'94). Mario Lemieux went from 54 to 70 goals and Gretzky went from 55 to 92. Yzerman went from 31 to 50. Alexander Mogilny went from 39 to 76 goals in the early 90s. Steven Stamkos entered the league with 25 goals, then 51,45,60...Phil Esposito went from 43 goals in the 1970 season to 76 the next season. Lanny McDonald never scored 50 before he scored 66 goals in the '82-'83 season.

Teemu Selanne's rookie season tally: 76 goals.

Jarri Kurri scored 52 the season before he scored 71. Reggie Leach scored 45 the season before he broke out for 61 in the 1975-76 season. And in the 1995-96 season, Jagr scored 62 goals...Feel free to check all previous season totals before that one. In the two seasons in which Bernie Nichols scored a combined 102 goals, he scored 51 one season and 51 the next...My mistake: He scored 32 goals in the 87-88 season and 70 the next.

And Steve Shutt, Guy Lafleur, Dennis Maruk, all have similar gaps, breaks what have you. Of the 20 or so who have scored 60 (or more) it's Bossy, Robitaille, Ovechkin who seem to enter the league at one gear and more or less inhabit that space for the majority of their career.

I don't know if anyone has noted the comparison, but Auston Matthews entered the league scoring 40 goals in a less than optimal Babcock system. Matthews trajectory from his first season to this and in comparison to historic trajectories doesn't render his potential as a 60 goal scorer as something anomalous, it tracks as a reasonable course precisely because Matthews is scoring at an historically outlier pace over his young career.

It takes more faith to bet against Matthews than it does reason to bet on him if we actually understand the company he's in. And...that company for the most part doesn't score in sequential ordered milestones. It tends to leap into actuality from potency.

And by my count, when 17 players of about 20 contradict your guarantee, it renders the guarantor completely discredited.
 
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Dache

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Not a good hill to die on:

Brett Hull scored 41 goals ('88-'89) the season before he scored 72 goals ('89-'90). Pavel Bure scored 34 goals ('91-'92) the season before he went on to score consecutive 60 goal seasons ('92-'93/'93-'94). Mario Lemieux went from 54 to 70 goals and Gretzky went from 55 to 92. Yzerman went from 31 to 50. Alexander Mogilny went from 39 to 76 goals in the early 90s. Steven Stamkos entered the league with 25 goals, then 51,45,60...Phil Esposito went from 43 goals in the 1970 season to 76 the next season. Lanny McDonald never scored 50 before he scored 66 goals in the '82-'83 season.

Teemu Selanne's rookie season tally: 76 goals.

Jarri Kurri scored 52 the season before he scored 71. Reggie Leach scored 45 the season before he broke out for 61 in the 1975-76 season. And in the 1995-96 season, Jagr scored 62 goals...Feel free to check all previous season totals before that one. In the two seasons in which Bernie Nichols scored a combined 102 goals, he scored 51 one season and 51 the next...My mistake: He scored 32 goals in the 87-88 season and 70 the next.

And Steve Shutt, Guy Lafleur, Dennis Maruk, all have similar gaps, breaks what have you. Of the 20 or so who have scored 60 (or more) it's Bossy, Robitaille, Ovechkin who seem to enter the league at one gear and more or less inhabit that space for the majority of their career.

I don't know if anyone has noted the comparison, but Auston Matthews entered the league scoring 40 goals in a less than optimal Babcock system. Matthews trajectory from his first season to this and in comparison to historic trajectories doesn't render his potential as a 60 goal scorer as something anomalous, it tracks as a reasonable course precisely because Matthews is scoring at an historically outlier pace over his young career.

It takes more faith to bet against Matthews than it does reason to bet on him if we actually understand the company he's in. And...that company for the most part doesn't score in sequential ordered milestones. It tends to leap into actuality from potency.

And by my count, when 17 players of about 20 contradict your guarantee, it renders the guarantor completely discredited.
No one is discrediting Matthews! How is this still a thing? And I think you completely missed my point. Before Lemieux scored 70, that same year he scored 60, and 50 etc. Do you think before that year started people were wondering how many 70 goal seasons he’d have? Or how many were wondering if he’d hit 60 first?
 

Shaman464

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Not a good hill to die on:

Brett Hull scored 41 goals ('88-'89) the season before he scored 72 goals ('89-'90). Pavel Bure scored 34 goals ('91-'92) the season before he went on to score consecutive 60 goal seasons ('92-'93/'93-'94). Mario Lemieux went from 54 to 70 goals and Gretzky went from 55 to 92. Yzerman went from 31 to 50. Alexander Mogilny went from 39 to 76 goals in the early 90s. Steven Stamkos entered the league with 25 goals, then 51,45,60...Phil Esposito went from 43 goals in the 1970 season to 76 the next season. Lanny McDonald never scored 50 before he scored 66 goals in the '82-'83 season.

Teemu Selanne's rookie season tally: 76 goals.

Jarri Kurri scored 52 the season before he scored 71. Reggie Leach scored 45 the season before he broke out for 61 in the 1975-76 season. And in the 1995-96 season, Jagr scored 62 goals...Feel free to check all previous season totals before that one. In the two seasons in which Bernie Nichols scored a combined 102 goals, he scored 51 one season and 51 the next...My mistake: He scored 32 goals in the 87-88 season and 70 the next.

And Steve Shutt, Guy Lafleur, Dennis Maruk, all have similar gaps, breaks what have you. Of the 20 or so who have scored 60 (or more) it's Bossy, Robitaille, Ovechkin who seem to enter the league at one gear and more or less inhabit that space for the majority of their career.

I don't know if anyone has noted the comparison, but Auston Matthews entered the league scoring 40 goals in a less than optimal Babcock system. Matthews trajectory from his first season to this and in comparison to historic trajectories doesn't render his potential as a 60 goal scorer as something anomalous, it tracks as a reasonable course precisely because Matthews is scoring at an historically outlier pace over his young career.

It takes more faith to bet against Matthews than it does reason to bet on him if we actually understand the company he's in. And...that company for the most part doesn't score in sequential ordered milestones. It tends to leap into actuality from potency.

And by my count, when 17 players of about 20 contradict your guarantee, it renders the guarantor completely discredited.

It doesn't take more faith to say he's unlikely to find that next gear than to assume he has it. He could score 60 or he could be a guy that's always around 45-50 a year.
 

MessierII

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Aug 10, 2011
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Why does he need to score 50 first? I have seen many here say that, but none have backed it up with any sort of reasoning?

Let’s use the player you are referencing to, did he need to score 40 first? Did he at least need to score 30 first? Because guess what? He did neither.

And let’s not act like Matthews came out of nowhere with a fluke season. His body of work is more than enough to suggest 60 within reach. If I’m not mistaken, his career average is 49.5 goals per 82 games. That makes it really silly, if not plain desperate, to claim he needs to hit 50 first.
Had the season not ended he would have scored over 50 last year easily. That being said he is streaky and 60 is a lot. I could see why people have reservations. Personally I don’t think it’s a stretch. I don’t think he’s a lock to score 60 though but I think of him as a guy who I expect to score 50 going into a season at this point.
 
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AcerComputer

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Only one player drafted since 2010 has even got to 50 in a season and it wasn't Matthews. I think 50 should be on the radar first.
Such a silly comment. He scored 47 in 70 games, and 41 in 52 games. To say he needs to score 50 first, is such dumb comment. He leads the league in GPG since entering the league, Ovi is 2nd. Get a life.
 

ITM

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No one is discrediting Matthews! How is this still a thing? And I think you completely missed my point. Before Lemieux scored 70, that same year he scored 60, and 50 etc. Do you think before that year started people were wondering how many 70 goal seasons he’d have? Or how many were wondering if he’d hit 60 first?

I don't think I missed your point. I think you might be backpedaling a touch. The thread is about goals in a season, sixty, and about benchmarks season to season with sixty being the hypothetical benchmark. There's no germane reason to talk about the potential of a player's seasonal output by hitching a position of reasonable observer who states that before Matthews (or any other player) hits 60 in a season, that we have to watch him cover 30, 40, then 50 in the SAME season in order to place a bet on 60. What's next an argument that states in order for 20 goal scorers to hit 20, first it's 5, then 10, then 15, then...??? That's...a hard sell.

To the bold, I think you're doing something similar to guaranteeing something (MM% no less) without knowing the facts behind it. You asked (rhetorically) if people wondered how many 70 goal seasons he'd have or if they wondered if he he'd hit 60, etc...? Well, it reads like you're claiming as though it would be unreasonable that people wondered such a thing and positing as an acceptable reality i.e. People didn't wonder about it because it wouldn't have been reasonable to do so.

And to set that record straight, oh yes they did. Mario came into the league as Gretzky's anticipated statistical rival right away. But before he entered the league, as a 15 year old phenom an agent told him to wear 66, to which, Lemieux later stated: "Ninety-nine upside down." the implication being obvious. Lemieux himself for years pointed to Gretzky as the best player, and his idol in fact. But very quickly -- VERY quickly -- Mario Lemiuex was absolutely part and parcel the conversational alter-ego to Gretzky. And the conversation was when, not if, Lemieux would begin to threaten Gretzky's totals.
 

Dache

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I don't think I missed your point. I think you might be backpedaling a touch. The thread is about goals in a season, sixty, and about benchmarks season to season with sixty being the hypothetical benchmark. There's no germane reason to talk about the potential of a player's seasonal output by hitching a position of reasonable observer who states that before Matthews (or any other player) hits 60 in a season, that we have to watch him cover 30, 40, then 50 in the SAME season in order to place a bet on 60. What's next an argument that states in order for 20 goal scorers to hit 20, first it's 5, then 10, then 15, then...??? That's...a hard sell.

To the bold, I think you're doing something similar to guaranteeing something (MM% no less) without knowing the facts behind it. You asked (rhetorically) if people wondered how many 70 goal seasons he'd have or if they wondered if he he'd hit 60, etc...? Well, it reads like you're claiming as though it would be unreasonable that people wondered such a thing and positing as an acceptable reality i.e. People didn't wonder about it because it wouldn't have been reasonable to do so.

And to set that record straight, oh yes they did. Mario came into the league as Gretzky's anticipated statistical rival right away. But before he entered the league, as a 15 year old phenom an agent told him to wear 66, to which, Lemieux later stated: "Ninety-nine upside down." the implication being obvious. Lemieux himself for years pointed to Gretzky as the best player, and his idol in fact. But very quickly -- VERY quickly -- Mario Lemiuex was absolutely part and parcel the conversational alter-ego to Gretzky. And the conversation was when, not if, Lemieux would begin to threaten Gretzky's totals.
No I’m not backpedaling at all, even the poster I originally replied to understood what I meant. I’m not even going to get into your whole tangent that has little to nothing to do with this thread. 3/4 of it is irrelevant to what I said and the rest is yes, missing the point. You’re trying to hard to paint this as a knock on Matthews and clearly ignoring everything else I’ve said even in this thread about how he is clearly the best in the world right now and absolutely has the talent for 60 goals. And just focusing on the one fact that people are saying he needs to actually hit 50 before being proclaimed a 50 goal scorer and moving on to how many 60 goal seasons he’ll have
 

ITM

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It doesn't take more faith to say he's unlikely to find that next gear than to assume he has it. He could score 60 or he could be a guy that's always around 45-50 a year.

Ok. Is it an unreasonable assumption when he's demonstrating said next gear season over season culminating (thus far) in 41 goals in 52 games? Thirty games to score 19 goals to hit 60. That doesn't look like he's found the next gear? At that pace he's threatening 65 goals. Granted, health, slumps, etc...But the season before it's 47 goals in 70 games. That's a shift in gear...isn't it?

And there are scores of other stats that say the same thing: Matthews is elite and is scoring at an historically elite level. Even if you take a cursory look at those players who have scored 60 or more, you can see that Matthews' trajectory is very favorable. As you say, he may hover around 50 goals a season...Now...Name as many players as you can who hovered in that 45-50 area without scoring 60.

I don't know. I haven't done my due diligence there. I'm leaving that open for you to capitalize on. I'll just note that in looking at the players who have scored 60 goals, Auston Matthews definitely gives off that Robitaille, Bossy, Ovechkin vibe.

The comment below notes something interesting as well. Bolded:

Such a silly comment. He scored 47 in 70 games, and 41 in 52 games. To say he needs to score 50 first, is such dumb comment. He leads the league in GPG since entering the league, Ovi is 2nd. Get a life.
 

ITM

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No I’m not backpedaling at all, even the poster I originally replied to understood what I meant. I’m not even going to get into your whole tangent that has little to nothing to do with this thread. 3/4 of it is irrelevant to what I said and the rest is yes, missing the point. You’re trying to hard to paint this as a knock on Matthews and clearly ignoring everything else I’ve said even in this thread about how he is clearly the best in the world right now and absolutely has the talent for 60 goals. And just focusing on the one fact that people are saying he needs to actually hit 50 before being proclaimed a 50 goal scorer and moving on to how many 60 goal seasons he’ll have

Which poster? I see a few comments in line with my own reading.

It's fine if you're taking a different position or clarifying a pre-existing position. I'm ok amending responses accordingly. But if the argument is you have to be in a season in which Matthews is threatening 60 in order to talk about the reasonable possibility, I think that's a tad over scrupulous. It certainly reads like (and at least one poster agreed) you're arguing in order to score 60 in a season, a player has to score 50 the previous season.

Now, did I do the same thing with your take on anticipating Mario Lemieux's potential?
 

Dache

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Which poster? I see a few comments in line with my own reading.

It's fine if you're taking a different position or clarifying a pre-existing position. I'm ok amending responses accordingly. But if the argument is you have to be in a season in which Matthews is threatening 60 in order to talk about the reasonable possibility, I think that's a tad over scrupulous. It certainly reads like (and at least one poster agreed) you're arguing in order to score 60 in a season, a player has to score 50 the previous season.

Now, did I do the same thing with your take on anticipating Mario Lemieux's potential?
Many posters are reading it that way, but many of those posters read as many posts as possible in as negative as possible of a way they can. Every post in here that claims he need to score 50 first I read as it could be in the same season. Why wouldn’t someone be able to beat their best by 11 goals? Or in his case 13, he’ll William Karlsson skipped right over 20 and 30, went straight from 9 to 44. The fact that you though the most likely scenario was that I meant they had to be in separate seasons says everything. There’s absolutely no reason why someone couldn’t go from 49 to 60 goals but you and many leaf fans blindly read it as something much worse for the sake of proving “leaf hate”.
 
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Shaman464

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Ok. Is it an unreasonable assumption when he's demonstrating said next gear season over season culminating (thus far) in 41 goals in 52 games? Thirty games to score 19 goals to hit 60. That doesn't look like he's found the next gear? At that pace he's threatening 65 goals. Granted, health, slumps, etc...But the season before it's 47 goals in 70 games. That's a shift in gear...isn't it?

And there are scores of other stats that say the same thing: Matthews is elite and is scoring at an historically elite level. Even if you take a cursory look at those players who have scored 60 or more, you can see that Matthews' trajectory is very favorable. As you say, he may hover around 50 goals a season...Now...Name as many players as you can who hovered in that 45-50 area without scoring 60.

I don't know. I haven't done my due diligence there. I'm leaving that open for you to capitalize on. I'll just note that in looking at the players who have scored 60 goals, Auston Matthews definitely gives off that Robitaille, Bossy, Ovechkin vibe.

The comment below notes something interesting as well. Bolded:

Yes, he leads the league but he's only averaging 70 games a year to this point, and this season's scoring pace is really pulling up his gpg average. It went from just under 46 goals/82 to almost 49/82. And given all the questions about how much of this year really reflects McDavid's scoring ability, Matthews has that many more questions about his ability. Next year will be telling whether he's a 50 goal guy or a 60 goal guy.
 

iDangleDangle

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Matthews scored at pretty much a 65 goal clip if pro rated to a 82 game season. Scorers are usually streaky, so keeping that pace for another 41 games seems like a tall order. Factoring in the possible effect of the amount of inter divisional games in a supposedly weak division and the shortened season and it's an even taller order.

Keeping a goal scoring pace is harder than raw point pace - thinking Matthews this season vs McDavid this season I'd wager it's likelier Connor repeats his season than Matthews.

But if any sniper from the current era is to break the 60 goal mark, it's Matthews.

Or Laine if he gets his head out of his ass, works hard and has a season where everything goes smoothly.
 

moropanov

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Next season if doesnt get injured Matthews has good change to get 60 i would say about 50% possibility, but its likely he misses games..Still good change he gets it atleat once next 5 seasons.
 
Jul 10, 2003
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Why is that what we’re talking about? That’s not what I have been. If next year let’s say he hits 50 in game 65 or so, then now the conversation should shift to 60, but why are we talking about 60 goal seasons before the later is achieved.

It's pretty clear that people are pointing to him not having a 50 goal season as a reason we shouldn't talk about him reaching 60. What you are now talking about is pretty much the same thing, arbitrary numbers set by HF posters. The reality is, 49 goals average over 82 games is more than sufficient to have the 60 goal season discussion.
 

Sasha Orlov

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While we're throwing around made up numbers, why not just say he's a 100 goal scorer?

I think he will likely score 60 at some point but people need to stop pretending he's already done it, he's never even hit 50
 
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Jul 10, 2003
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Had the season not ended he would have scored over 50 last year easily. That being said he is streaky and 60 is a lot. I could see why people have reservations. Personally I don’t think it’s a stretch. I don’t think he’s a lock to score 60 though but I think of him as a guy who I expect to score 50 going into a season at this point.

People are free to have reservations but this doesn't really address my point at all.

BTW, he's not really streaky as far as goal scorers go.
 

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