ATD Chat Thread XVI

[seventieslord]

Has the hockey media as a whole just given up completely on considering anyone who isn't at the very top of the scoring leaderboard for MVP awards?
The last article I read on the subject did the usual dance about how "McDavid's the top talent in the game, but Kucherov is just too dangerous to ignore", and then dropped mention of Kane's role in the Blackhawk's late surge. Then, at the ended, noted that Gaudreau is "carrying" the Flames to a strong season.
...and then immediately after, in the Norris section, a case for why Mark Giordano has been far and away the best defenseman in the NHL this season. Perhaps that isn't as significant as McDavid's unparalleled abilities, or Kucherov's historic scoring (he should best Thornton's post-lockout points record, and Jagr's single season mark for assists by a winger), but shouldn't having the best defenseman in the NHL be seen as a much bigger reason for Calgary's success than having the 8th highest-scoring forward?

It looks like last year Doughty got a single 4th place vote for the Hart, and Hedman a 5th. It really doesn't square with the importance of good defensemen in the NHL, does it?

I've been saying this for years.

 

[seventieslord]

I certainly think a major case needs to be made by folks who have a national audience about the importance of defense in regards to the Hart. Not to mention we need to start using more advanced analytics. Hockey is getting left behind in this regard and while you can't use the same methods as say baseball (more of a 1 on 1 game) there are already metrics I think make a lot of sense and I'm sure we can develop others. Hell, there are people on this forum that have done amazing statistical analysis that goes beyond raw data.

The problem with voting is it is largely a popularity contest. And with the emergence of fantasy sports and betting, offense gets all the glory.

Do I honestly think Kucherov is literally the most valuable player in hockey? No. He's a one way winger. Yes, his offensive value is very high (although not quite as impressive on the surface when you look at the PP numbers). And he does play on a stacked roster that is having a season on par with any of Bowman's Montreal squads. He'll win the Hart in a landslide and while I don't have a major problem with him winning, I certainly don't think it's so cut and dried by just looking at points. As I've said a million times, it's lazy analysis.

I mean look at how many people scoff at Crosby getting Selke recognition this year. A lot of it is simply folks who don't like the guy and will not enteratain the possibility that he has played at or near a Selke level defensively this year. Some of it stems from Crosby being a dominant offensive force earlier in his career while maintaining strong numbers even well past his prime.

But break down the numbers, raw AND advanced, watch the games and it's clear as day the impact 87 has had defensively for the Pens this year. Yeah the points are impressive given his age and the workload he's had, but I truly am most impressed by the big strides he's made defensively the past few years, especially this year.

I'm not saying he should win, but his career arc is very, very similar to Yzerman in terms of being offensively slanted in his early to mid 20's (without being a black hole mind you like a Bill Cowley or Ovechkin if you want a modern day player) to solid, to having a year where he's clearly taken a major step towards the top. I'm not surprised in the least given Sid's admiration for Yzerman or his work ethic. But there will always be a barrier against him due to factors I mentioned above (while conversely, some will just give him the adulation without even watching the games). Works both ways, as is life in general.

But getting back to wingers and the Hart. I agree in principle with @Dreakmur

Wingers are the least important position hockey. That's absolutely backed up when you look at SC winners over the history of the league, especially post expansion when talent was more dispersed. And as hockey has become more and more regimented/structured, C's have taken on more responsibilities in all 3 zones. Rarely do you see W's anchoring a line defensively. Mark Stone is a rare exception and I do think he should be getting more Selke love. But being stuck in Ottawa didn't help at all. Maybe playing on a winner in Vegas will garner him more exposure.

Now, with that being said, I'm not going to rage when Kuch gets the Hart. He's had a fantastic year and plays on the best team in the league by a mile. This Lightning team will be a colossal failure if they don't win the Cup. It's a lot of pressure but having the kind of season they've had will do that.

I realized yesterday that Sid is kinda unique in an all-time sense in that he'll go down as the best offensive forward to "reinvent" himself as a two-way/defensive guy. Similar to what Yzerman and Sakic did, but just a better overall version of them.

Better/comparable offensive players:

Gretzky, Lemieux, Esposito, Hull, Jagr, Ovechkin, Richard, Lafleur: Never reinvented themselves as two-way players
Howe, Beliveau, Morenz, Messier: were always known as pretty two-way guys, didn't get appreciably better/didn't really need to

The best comparable might be Stan Mikita. All the raving about his defensive play started in his 30s, and he stopped being a serious threat for the scoring race (and outside of two seasons, a serious threat for top-10, really). In Crosby's case, he's not going to threaten to win the Ross, but very much a top-10 scorer. His defensive reputation seems to be trending to be higher than Mikita's ever was, too.

Crosby is a rich man's Mikita, IMO.

 

[Johnny Engine]

I've been saying this for years.

It’s always been more or less true, but I’m perceiving a shift from “forward award, but we’ll give lip service to someone else and maybe even vote him in the top 3 if he blows us away” to not even pretending to consider other guys. Does that sound right?

 

[ImporterExporter]

I realized yesterday that Sid is kinda unique in an all-time sense in that he'll go down as the best offensive forward to "reinvent" himself as a two-way/defensive guy. Similar to what Yzerman and Sakic did, but just a better overall version of them.

Better/comparable offensive players:

Gretzky, Lemieux, Esposito, Hull, Jagr, Ovechkin, Richard, Lafleur: Never reinvented themselves as two-way players
Howe, Beliveau, Morenz, Messier: were always known as pretty two-way guys, didn't get appreciably better/didn't really need to

The best comparable might be Stan Mikita. All the raving about his defensive play started in his 30s, and he stopped being a serious threat for the scoring race (and outside of two seasons, a serious threat for top-10, really). In Crosby's case, he's not going to threaten to win the Ross, but very much a top-10 scorer. His defensive reputation seems to be trending to be higher than Mikita's ever was, too.

Crosby is a rich man's Mikita, IMO.

I certainly don't know if Sid will ever win the Selke (I lean towards yes, because, one, he's taken huge strides defensively, but two, does have the name recognition to help sway the casual PHWA voter). There will always be a vocal minority that scoffs at the thought of him winning a defensive award but it's just the natural progression for a player who idolized Yzerman growing up and has the work ethic and drive to be great that Sid clearly has. People said he was a whiny little shit (he was). He shut the hell up quickly. People said he couldn't score goals at an elite rate. He won multiple Richard trophies (and lost a great shot at 60+ in 2010-11). People said he couldn't get it done in crunch time. He won back to back Smythes.

As he's slowed down (and he has), 87 has adapted his game in multiple ways. And as you correctly point out, the high octane offensive players above never did. Even when they lost 2-3 steps, lost some mustard on their shot, lost a little endurance, etc, etc, their games didn't appreciably improve in areas beyond one zone. Now, even into their mid to late 30's, Gretzky and Lemieux were still very, very good offensive players, but their value overall waned because there was nothing else really special about their overall game. Is it any surprise the Pens won back to back Cups, which happened to coincide with Sid taking the first big steps defensively? And last year they lost a chance at a 3 peat to the team that won the Cup. His performance against San Jose in 2016 is underrated because people only focus on points which certainly wasn't impressive by any measure. But he and his line totally shut down Thornton and Pavelksi. Even to the point where Jumbo Joe was whacking Sid early and often in games as the series progressed, with Sid casually skating away, damn near smiling. And Sid has the primary assist on the Cup winning goal in game 6 and then blocked a shot (Sully had him out protecting a 1 goal lead with the Sharks goalie pulled) in the last minute + that led directly to Hornqvist's EN goal to seal it.

And do I think somebody like Mario was a more gifted player than Sid? Oh hell yes. I think Mario is the most naturally gifted player I've ever seen (players his size shouldn't be able to skate like he did, or handle the puck so effortlessly at top speed). He's why I got into hockey as a kid in the late 80's. But even he'll admit and has done so numerous times, he didn't take the game seriously (namely health and fitness) until the late 80's when he started really having back issues. He'll admit he never paid much attention to defense. One can argue that it was wide open hockey, and talents like his shouldn't bother with defense, but I find that argument to be lazy as I think great defense only paves the way for more high quality offensive chances and consistency in winning.

And that's why I have come to appreciate and root for Sid more and more over the years. Yes, he's a spectacular hockey player, but he goes about it the right way. He says the right stuff, he's worked his ass off to better himself in various areas. He does a ton of good off the ice. I hope when it's all said and done he's side by side with somebody like Beliveau, because they were both incredible players who carried themselves with class, worked hard, stayed quiet, and inspired their teams to multiple Cups.

 

[seventieslord]

Yeah, I think a Beliveau-like legacy is about where he's headed.

 

[seventieslord]

It’s always been more or less true, but I’m perceiving a shift from “forward award, but we’ll give lip service to someone else and maybe even vote him in the top 3 if he blows us away” to not even pretending to consider other guys. Does that sound right?

Yes, absolutely.

 

[tinyzombies]

Are dmen more valuable depending on the system? Doughty gets tons of credit but he had every advantage from the system, conservative offensive style and bail-out goaltending? Plenty of help on the breakout as well. Keith never got that and his passing rate is off the charts.

Harvey dealt with the opposite scenario. They went all out and left it to Plante and Harvey (and Johnson) to clean up the mess. He had to win the puck without as much help, slow it down or hit a guy on the fly to back up the forecheck. Plante playing the puck helped.

 

[seventieslord]

Are dmen more valuable depending on the system? Doughty gets tons of credit but he had every advantage from the system, conservative offensive style and bail-out goaltending?

Harvey dealt with the opposite scenario. They went all out and left it to Plante and Harvey (and Johnson) to clean up the mess.

I don't think I've ever heard the Dynasty Canadiens described that way

 

[tinyzombies]

I don't think I've ever heard the Dynasty Canadiens described that way

This is how it’s described in the new Plante book. They opened it up after Blake took over. It was felt they were too cautious with what they had and after losing two game 7s.

Hockeygraphs shows the same statistical trend for the late 50s Habs- they were a counterattack team.

 

[seventieslord]

This is how it’s described in the new Plante book. They opened it up after Blake took over. It was felt they were too cautious with what they had and after losing two game 7s.

Hockeygraphs shows the same statistical trend for the late 50s Habs- they were a counterattack team.

I mean, maybe I should have known better. There is a book about that era of the habs called fire-wagon hockey, and I haven't gotten to reading it yet, but my assumption was that that team was just so strong all around, including defensively, which may be true but it doesn't mean that the team didn't have a very offensive bent to it.

 

[BenchBrawl]

-In 1956, Beliveau led MTL with 19 pts in the playoffs, then Geoffrion, M.Richard and Olmstead with 14.
-In 1957, Geoffrion led with 18 pts, then Beliveau with 12, M.Richard with 11, Moore with 9, etc.
-In 1958, M.Richard led with 15 pts, then Beliveau with 12, Geoffrion, Moore (and Harvey) with 11, etc.
-In 1959, Moore led with 17 pts, then Bonin with 15, then Geoffrion with 13 (and then Harvey with 12), H.Richard with 11, etc.
-In 1960, H.Richard and Geoffrion led with 12 pts, then Moore with 10, etc.

Playoffs leaders among forwards is all over the place; each took his turn, some more than others, but still.

It seems clear to me that Doug Harvey was the one to generate the counterattacks and all the forwards benefitted from it, since Harvey was on the ice with all of them due to his high icetime.Not only did he generate the counterattacks, but he was a fortress defensively in case they backfired.

Checking the +/- from 1960, Harvey was +13 in 8 games, so was Langlois.

Next is Geoffrion at +9, then Beliveau at +7.

Next defenseman after Harvey/Langlois is Tom Johnson at +3.

 

[tinyzombies]

I mean, maybe I should have known better. There is a book about that era of the habs called fire-wagon hockey, and I haven't gotten to reading it yet, but my assumption was that that team was just so strong all around, including defensively, which may be true but it doesn't mean that the team didn't have a very offensive bent to it.

This is the crux of my point. They could play it any way you wanted but were loaded so they just opened up both barrels.

But that also applies to the Hawks and Penguins. Actually the recent Pens probably had to open it up. But it worked.

So it’s relative.

Bowman tried to break Lafleur but then found it wasn’t necessary- they were so strong offensively. But Lafleur was a center coming up- he could have done it easily.

I think there’s an overemphasis on defense! Especially when talking about the greats.

But when the greats do both anyway like Morenz... I think he’s underrated here. Especially in a draft that is not bpa but most valuable to an all-time all-Star team.

And it’s like the entire philosophy here which I think needs to be reconciled more.. Price is the best goalie ever. That has to count for something even if the numbers aren’t there. Best career is relative sometimes. Put Perreault on the Habs for instance.

 

[tinyzombies]

And here’s the historical possession charts I referred to:

Franchise History – Possession (2pS%)

It’s the only thing Habs fans have after that Columbus debacle!

 

[BenchBrawl]

Price has been thrown to the wolves from day 1.

He had to deal with an incompetent organization, the Montreal media circus and the immense pressure from the fanbase.All things considered, he is clearly underrated.All those things you don't have to deal with if you play in San Jose or Chicago.

He also never had that great a defense in front of him.He had guys like Souray, Markov, Subban, but those guys are more known for their offense than for their defense.Only Weber broke that trend recently.

 

[tinyzombies]

Price has been thrown to the wolves from day 1.

He had to deal with an incompetent organization, the Montreal media circus and the immense pressure from the fanbase.All things considered, he is clearly underrated.All those things you don't have to deal with if you play in San Jose or Chicago.

I find Crawford underrated too ironically. If he played in Montreal he’d get more kudos (but less Cups, so probably end up the same lol).

 

[tinyzombies]

Price has been thrown to the wolves from day 1.

He had to deal with an incompetent organization, the Montreal media circus and the immense pressure from the fanbase.All things considered, he is clearly underrated.All those things you don't have to deal with if you play in San Jose or Chicago.

He also never had that great a defense in front of him.He had guys like Souray, Markov, Subban, but those guys are more known for their offense than for their defense.Only Weber broke that trend recently.

I don’t agree. PK is underrated defensively. He gets stung by what he had to do in MT’s system. Last year he carried tough mins and Emelin. He only has three elite seasons tho so needs to do more.

Markov was masterful in his own zone and made everyone better. In later years he couldn’t hang in MT’s wide open system in the nz, that’s it. He should have shot the puck more too.

He was a converted center. Most D play like that now.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I don’t agree. PK is underrated defensively. He gets stung by what he had to do in MT’s system. Last year he carried tough mins and Emelin. He only has three elite seasons tho so needs to do more.

Markov was masterful in his own zone and made everyone better. In later years he couldn’t hang in MT’s wide open system in the nz, that’s it. He should have shot the puck more too.

Subban wasn't as good defensively as most strong #1 defensemen, that's what I meant.And Subban at his peak was good defensively, but he wasn't always at his peak, including his Norris year.

Markov was good no question, but he was never a Top 15 D defensively IMO.

The point was, Price never had a Doughty in front of him.Montreal's defense was OK but nothing more.

 

[tinyzombies]

Subban wasn't as good defensively as most strong #1 defensemen, that's what I meant.And Subban at his peak was good defensively, but he wasn't always at his peak, including his Norris year.

Markov was good no question, but he was never a Top 15 D defensively IMO.

The point was, Price never had a Doughty in front of him.

Markov: Sportlogiq had a chart that showed his value in takeaways. He was never out of position and was Harvey like in his first pass. I say underrated dammit.

PK has had off years. But not defensively imo. He misses the net too much. When the Preds tried to free him up for offense he didn’t do much. He’s better in shutdown.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Price has been thrown to the wolves from day 1.

He had to deal with an incompetent organization, the Montreal media circus and the immense pressure from the fanbase.All things considered, he is clearly underrated.All those things you don't have to deal with if you play in San Jose or Chicago.

He also never had that great a defense in front of him.He had guys like Souray, Markov, Subban, but those guys are more known for their offense than for their defense.Only Weber broke that trend recently.

I agree. I used to be very hard on Price but he's a great netminder. He's one of those players who grows on you.

 

[tinyzombies]

Of all the best centers, Morenz is the best 2-way. Crosby would join him. But Morenz will always have done it for longer. Crosby could have if asked. Who else amongst elite scorers is in that echelon?

 

[BenchBrawl]

Of all the best centers, Morenz is the best 2-way. Crosby would join him. But Morenz will always have done it for longer. Crosby could have if asked. Who else amongst elite scorers is in that echelon?

Is Morenz definitely better than Béliveau defensively?

Also depends what you mean by ''best centers''.I'd take guys like Clarke, Nighbor and Trottier over him defensively.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Markov: Sportlogiq had a chart that showed his value in takeaways. He was never out of position and was Harvey like in his first pass. I say underrated dammit.

PK has had off years. But not defensively imo. He misses the net too much. When the Preds tried to free him up for offense he didn’t do much. He’s better in shutdown.

I'm a big Markov fan, and maybe at his absolute best he was Top 15 defensively, but that didn't last very long.

Obviously Markov is one of the smartest defensemen of the last 20 years.His hockey IQ was elite.The underrated part of his game was his shot; despite being the playmaker and QB on the PP, he could also throw some great shots here and there.

 

[tinyzombies]

Is Morenz definitely better than Béliveau defensively?

Also depends what you mean by ''best centers''.I'd take guys like Clarke, Nighbor and Trottier over him defensively.

I've never heard raves about Beliveau defensively, you would know better. Nighbor didn't put up the points like Morenz. Hard to play defense when you're scoring goals. Clarke was allowed to get away with murder. To me that should take him down a peg. That's not hockey. Morenz was the best player in the world for 6 or 7 years. Trottier was great, but not on the same level.

Put Morenz in Beliveau's place and his value would be magnified maybe. Old time watchers back in the day said Morenz was better than Richard remember. That was before Beliveau came around.

 

[BenchBrawl]

I've never heard raves about Beliveau defensively, you would know better. Nighbor didn't put up the points like Morenz. Hard to play defense when you're scoring goals. Clarke was allowed to get away with murder. To me that should take him down a peg. That's not hockey. Morenz was the best player in the world for 6 or 7 years. Trottier was great, but not on the same level.

Put Morenz in Beliveau's place and his value would be magnified maybe. Old time watchers back in the day said Morenz was better than Richard remember. That was before Beliveau came around.

I never meant to imply those guys were on Morenz' level overall.

 

[tinyzombies]

I never meant to imply those guys were on Morenz' level overall.

Moore-Morenz-Geoffrion would be a hell of a line - injecting a dose of speed without losing Beliveau's puck carrying and maybe an upgrade defensively? With Harvey feeding Morenz the puck on the breakout. And Morenz was feisty. With Moore, that ups the grit also. And Morenz had a big shot, so add that as well - Morenz and Geoffrion blasting away.