ATD 2021 Procedure (the convoluted & technical brainstorming that GMs can feel free to ignore)

[Theokritos]

@Theokritos What if you keep your original system, but after 1-4 are determined you randomly determine the order in which the other tiers are selected?

So could be 20-24 first, 10-14, second, etc.

This seems like it wouldn’t be much extra work

That of course would make it coincidental which tier/segment is picked next, so it would be more "fair" than starting at either end. But once that coincidental decision has been made, the issue that some GMs don't actually get a tangible reward would remain.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

That of course would make it coincidental which tier/segment is picked next, so it would be more "fair" than starting at either end. But once that coincidental decision has been made, the issue that some GMs don't actually get a tangible reward would remain.

Right, but at least from the start there is no bias and all GMs have the same chance at getting their desired tier, and it's not making a ton of extra work for you.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I'm fine with this process as long as we have it fleshed out by early next week. If we're going this route we need to make sure everyone has a few days at least to put their preferences in for the dice.

The drop dead date for sign ups is 01/14.

So the draft order would be decided around the 17th or 18th?

 

[Theokritos]

Right, but at least from the start there is no bias and all GMs have the same chance at getting their desired tier, and it's not making a ton of extra work for you.

True, but I don't really like the idea of a reward that is already probabilistic (more dices=higher chance, but no guarantee) being conditional on another process of chance.

To tweak what I wrote in post 266: Once the sign-up is closed, we could simply have a quick lottery involving all the GMs eligible for a reward. GMs who voted 6/6 times last year and rookies get 3 dices, GMs who voted 5/6 get two dices and GMs who voted 4/6 get once dice. The top 5 can pick the tier or – why not? – the actual draft pick they prefer. (Except for the top 4 overall.)

That's one probabilistic step for everyone who is eligible and a yes/no outcome for the reward.

 

[Theokritos]

If we're going this route we need to make sure everyone has a few days at least to put their preferences in for the dice.

That's a factor some might view as a downside if we're letting those GMs either up the number of dices in a segment/tier or if I do what I've outlined in post 266:

I run a little lottery to determine an order among the GMs to be rewarded. The order determines who has priority in picking a tier. First the GMs eligible for a full reward are put in sequence by chance, then the ones who voted 5/6 times, then the ones who voted 4/6 times last year.

Then the GMs would announce their preference in the order I have announced, which could take a few days.

The question is if people are fine with waiting 3-4 days.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

True, but I don't really like the idea of a reward that is already probabilistic (more dices=higher chance, but no guarantee) being conditional on another process of chance.

To tweak what I wrote in post 266: Once the sign-up is closed, we could simply have a quick lottery involving all the GMs eligible for a reward. GMs who voted 6/6 times last year and rookies get 3 dices, GMs who voted 5/6 get two dices and GMs who voted 4/6 get once dice. The top 5 can pick the tier or – why not? – the actual draft pick they prefer. (Except for the top 4 overall.)

That's one probabilistic step for everyone who is eligible and a yes/no outcome for the reward.

Either way would be fine with me

 

[ResilientBeast]

Either way would be fine with me

Same. I'm not too concerned with if/or how we do it.

 

[ImporterExporter]

So the draft order would be decided around the 17th or 18th?

Well if you go back a few pages I had said the timeline would be as follows:

14th is cut off for sign ups.

Before we started really diving into this whirlwind of data, I had hoped Theo could randomize an order that Friday the 15th and we could unofficially begin and then have the clock start officially on January 18th at 0800 am.

What I'd like to avoid, is this discussion about rewards, dice and odds from muddying up the process (not that it has at all). Just don't want it to prolong the timeline as it seems we're at or near the cap of GM's and folks are itching to start.

I'm in the camp that doesn't really care whether we have any reward or not. It's quite inconsequential to the entire draft.

Let's just try and iron out the full details by the end of this week/weekend so @Theokritos knows exactly what will be needed from him and it will allow the GM's time to send him PM's with their preferences on which part of the draft they'd be shooting for.

Hope that helps sir!

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Well if you go back a few pages I had said the timeline would be as follows:

14th is cut off for sign ups.

Before we started really diving into this whirlwind of data, I had hoped Theo could randomize an order that Friday the 15th and we could unofficially begin and then have the clock start officially on January 18th at 0800 am.

What I'd like to avoid, is this discussion about rewards, dice and odds from muddying up the process (not that it has at all). Just don't want it to prolong the timeline as it seems we're at or near the cap of GM's and folks are itching to start.

I'm in the camp that doesn't really care whether we have any reward or not. It's quite inconsequential to the entire draft.

Let's just try and iron out the full details by the end of this week/weekend so @Theokritos knows exactly what will be needed from him and it will allow the GM's time to send him PM's with their preferences on which part of the draft they'd be shooting for.

Hope that helps sir!

Thanks. My confusion was with what you said before:

I'm fine with this process as long as we have it fleshed out by early next week. If we're going this route we need to make sure everyone has a few days at least to put their preferences in for the dice.

The drop dead date for sign ups is 01/14.

Wouldn't these "few days" not be able to start until signups are closed? If 3-4 GMs sign up on the last day that could totally change your pick preference.

EDIT: IMO 1-2 days should be enough time to decide

 

[Theokritos]

So I'm leading towards the reward lottery:

Once the sign-up is closed, we could simply have a quick lottery involving all the GMs eligible for a reward. GMs who voted 6/6 times last year and rookies get 3 dices, GMs who voted 5/6 get two dices and GMs who voted 4/6 get once dice.

Two questions to the GMs:

• Should the winners of the lottery be allowed to pick their draft spot (except in the top 4 overall) or only the segment they draft from (except for the segment including the top 4 overall)?
• Are you fine with two to three days between 1) the sign-up is closed & the reward lottery and 2) the draft lottery & draft order? Or do you prefer the draft to start as soon as possible once the sign-up is closed?

 

[ResilientBeast]

So I'm leading towards the reward lottery:



Two questions to the GMs:

• Should the winners of the lottery be allowed to pick their draft spot (except in the top 4 overall) or only the segment they draft from (except for the segment including the top 4 overall)?
• Are you fine with two to three days between 1) the sign-up is closed & the reward lottery and 2) the draft lottery & draft order? Or do you prefer the draft to start as soon as possible once the sign-up is closed?

The second question I feel like ASAP will be the consensus opinion

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

The second question I feel like ASAP will be the consensus opinion

I agree with this.

Also, I think the 1-4 spots should be determined as soon as signups are closed. That way if any of the reward GMs get those spots it’s less work for you.

I have no preference on the first point

 

[Theokritos]

So if we set the sign-up deadline at 2 PM EST of January 14 (remember I'm operating +6 from EST, so that's 8 PM for me), then the tiers/segments could be announced right away and the lottery for the top segment (picks 1-4 overall) would be held. Neither would take long.

Next step: the reward lottery for the remaining GMs who are eligible for a reward. Would be done right afterwards and wouldn't take long either. First a random order will be determined for rookie GMs plus the GMs who voted 6/6 times last year, then for the GMs who voted 5/6, then for the GMs who voted 4/6. Each GM has time until the next day (let's say the deadline is 2 PM EST on January 15) to announce an individual ranking of the segments in order of their preference. Of course, GMs can also choose not to announce if their draft position doesn't matter to them.

Once the deadline has arrived, I will assign the GMs to their preferred tiers/segments in sequence of the reward lottery order. That being done, the main lottery for all the picks (save 1-4 overall) follows. In case a segment is already fully assigned, all I have to do is hold a quick lottery between the four or five GMs to determine the order. For example: GMs A, B, C and D have been assigned to segment II (picks 5-8 overall), so all that is left to do is to let the dice decide who among them picks 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th. The unassigned GMs enter the lottery as soon as a segment that has not been fully assigned comes up.

---

At this point the above is only a suggestion. Thoughts?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Only suggestion I have is a PM to the qualifying GMs some time next week to make sure they know they're eligible and to let them know about the time table for giving you their tier preference lists.

 

[Theokritos]

Only suggestion I have is a PM to the qualifying GMs some time next week to make sure they know they're eligible and to let them know about the time table for giving you their tier preference lists.

Yes, I will do that.

EDIT: I had public announcements in mind BTW, not PMs. I don't see any reason why the preferences should be confidential and a thread with announcements would be much easier to work with than browsing 15 or so PMs.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Yes, I will do that.

EDIT: I had public announcements in mind BTW, not PMs. I don't see any reason why the preferences should be confidential and a thread with announcements would be much easier to work with than browsing 15 or so PMs.

This is somewhat nitpicking, and I don't really care either way, but seeing some of the other GMs' lists could influence the list of a GM that hasn't submitted theirs yet.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

This is somewhat nitpicking, and I don't really care either way, but seeing some of the other GMs' lists could influence the list of a GM that hasn't submitted theirs yet.

Following up on this, I think this is actually a bigger deal than I originally thought...

1. The divisions are determined by the draft order, so if you're in the same tier as another GM, you will likely not be in the same division, which could have a big influence on a GM's list

2. For GMs that don't care about point 1 and have the attitude that you'll have to beat the strong GMs eventually anyway...they may try to distance themselves from those they perceive to be strong GMs or similar minded GMs, as they don't want their picks being scooped. Everyone who's participated in enough of these has had one of those years where the GM 1 or 2 picks before you keeps taking your guy.

For the above reasons, I think the process should be private, including waiting to announce picks 1-4 until after lists have been submitted.

 

[Theokritos]

Following up on this, I think this is actually a bigger deal than I originally thought...

1. The divisions are determined by the draft order, so if you're in the same tier as another GM, you will likely not be in the same division, which could have a big influence on a GM's list

I see. What if we came up with a different way to determine the divisions?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

I see. What if we came up with a different way to determine the divisions?

That still doesn't solve point #2

 

[Theokritos]

That still doesn't solve point #2

Okay. Do you think doing the reward lottery one day later would solve the point? Because then GMs have no idea whether they actually get their #1 preference or only their #5?

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Okay. Do you think doing the reward lottery one day later would solve the point? Because then GMs have no idea whether they actually get their #1 preference or only their #5?

From what I understand you want the lists to be public because it's easier for you to put everything together. Perhaps 2 of us participating GMs could help collect the preference list data via PM and put it in one big list/file/PM for you (2 GMs so there is a double check built in).

The 2 GMs would of course have to give you their own preference lists up front, before they start collecting the lists of other GMs via PM.

As I've been behind a lot of this, I would be happy to volunteer to be one of those GMs.

 

[ResilientBeast]

From what I understand you want the lists to be public because it's easier for you to put everything together. Perhaps 2 of us participating GMs could help collect the preference list data via PM and put it in one big list/file/PM for you (2 GMs so there is a double check built in).

The 2 GMs would of course have to give you their own preference lists up front, before they start collecting the lists of other GMs via PM.

As I've been behind a lot of this, I would be happy to volunteer to be one of those GMs.

I can also volunteer

 

[ImporterExporter]

Why make submissions private? Just post your preferences so everyone can overview it. There is no reason to go through the trouble of hiding simple preferences when it's just going to prolong the overall process and make Theo's job more difficult. Plus there are no worries about collusion.

I create a preference thread. People post where they want their extra dice to go. Or don't post. There is no rule stating to you have to participate in the reward aspect. Theo does his thing and we get a draft order.

Just my opinion.

 

[ResilientBeast]

Why make submissions private? Just post your preferences so everyone can overview it. There is no reason to go through the trouble of hiding simple preferences when it's just going to prolong the overall process and make Theo's job more difficult. Plus there are no worries about collusion.

I create a preference thread. People post where they want their extra dice to go. Or don't post. There is no rule stating to you have to participate in the reward aspect. Theo does his thing and we get a draft order.

Just my opinion.

We're trying to avoid strategic choices that shape our divisions/conferences

 

[BenchBrawl]

I want to be in the toughest division possible. I love a challenge, and it makes victory more glorious if you can pull it off.

I was disproportionately often in "divisions of death" in the last few years, and it was a blast.