Around the NHL 2020-2021 | Offseason Edition

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Optimally, yeah, I agree. I wouldn't want to put 10M in a goalie. The Wings were always far better when they had a cheap goalie (Osgood, late stage Hasek, Vernon, etc.) and a loaded roster.

However, if I were going to make a huge bet on a goalie being worth that contract? Carey Price is probably the guy I'd pick. The issue with Price is that he faces a ludicrously high volume of high danger chances. Any metric that adjusts for actual quality of shot against shows Price to still be a top tier goalie.

I don't dispute that he's elite, or pretty close to it still & he may be close to worth it today, but not much longer...I don't care to look @ his advanced stats, so I'll take your word for it.

 

[Bondurant]

Panthers may have allowance of 5k fans per game per a tweet posted on the main board. Did a little digging and found no confirmation elsewhere. If true it may be the only option to see the Wings live in '21.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Dom Hasek aged pretty well. He was 38 when he won the cup.

Carey Price was a 10/10 goalie at the age of 27-28-29.
But he hasn't been the same since.

I posted his last three years. Nothing "elite" about those stats.
He bounced back last year, and then slid a bit again this year before having a great playoff.
And I think that's what you're going to get from Price in this stage.
A pretty good to very good goalie who can help you steal a series.
But at 33, you'd be foolish to expect this stage of his career to go for long before he declines to the next stage.

Lundquist slipped in his 33 year.
Quick slipped in his 33 year.
Rask slipped at 28 for four years before bouncing back last year.
Crawford slipped at 34.
Howard slipped at 29 and then the wheels fell off at 35.

I can see price having a good year the next year, two or even three. I don't think he'll ever be Hart Trophy material again. But I could see top 10 finishes in Vezina voting.
But at 36? 37? 38?
In this era? I don't see it.

And that's the genesis of this conversation. Price's contract as he ages is going to get very, very ugly. I'm expecting a whole lot of LTIR over those last 3 years.

I don't think it will. Lundqvist is your only real relevant comp here... and his stats started diving at about the time the Rangers started diving down the standings.

Quick is the anti-Carey Price. Quick lived almost exclusively on his athleticism. Price does not.
Rask has been an elite goaltender for years and years. I'm not seeing a "slip" for him. He's been elite for years.
Crawford? Crawford was a goalie on a f***ing loaded team when he was putting up those big stat totals. Chicago's roster became very pedestrian very quickly.

Howard? His troubles were that he couldn't stay healthy longer than a couple months in any given season... AND the Wings roster year after year decayed. 14-15, He was .920 though late December. He got hurt, tried to rush back because Mrazek was in the wings, sucked ass. 15-16, he was .920 through late December, had a couple game streak of getting shelled, got injured, and was dogshit the rest of the way. 16-17, he played 26 games and was at .927, then got hurt and didn't come back. 17-18, again was around .920 through the early going, had a couple of shithouse outings, and was only okay the rest of the way. 18-19, again .920 through December, then fell off. He truly did fall completely apart in 19-20. He's cooked now.

Ages alone don't tell you the story. Looking at a high level at sv% and GAA doesn't tell you the story.

 

[TatarTangle]

Does AA score 50 goals in LA or is he, yet again, just misused?

 

[MBH]

I don't think it will. Lundqvist is your only real relevant comp here... and his stats started diving at about the time the Rangers started diving down the standings.

Quick is the anti-Carey Price. Quick lived almost exclusively on his athleticism. Price does not.
Rask has been an elite goaltender for years and years. I'm not seeing a "slip" for him. He's been elite for years.
Crawford? Crawford was a goalie on a f***ing loaded team when he was putting up those big stat totals. Chicago's roster became very pedestrian very quickly.

Howard? His troubles were that he couldn't stay healthy longer than a couple months in any given season... AND the Wings roster year after year decayed. 14-15, He was .920 though late December. He got hurt, tried to rush back because Mrazek was in the wings, sucked ass. 15-16, he was .920 through late December, had a couple game streak of getting shelled, got injured, and was dogshit the rest of the way. 16-17, he played 26 games and was at .927, then got hurt and didn't come back. 17-18, again was around .920 through the early going, had a couple of shithouse outings, and was only okay the rest of the way. 18-19, again .920 through December, then fell off. He truly did fall completely apart in 19-20. He's cooked now.

Ages alone don't tell you the story. Looking at a high level at sv% and GAA doesn't tell you the story.

Rask has already slipped. He spent 6 years in the 920s and higher, averaging .926 and 2.16.
Since then, he's fallen to .917 and 2.36. And that's lower thanks to a big bounceback year last year. So we'll see if he falls back to the .910 range this year again.

Howard? There's an obvious line in his career. Everything past 12-13 is beyond his prime - except one outlier of a 26-game season.
Basically, he's been a Bernier-level goalie since 13-14 - the entire 6-year contract (plus last year's ugly season).

Anyway...
Let's put a wager on it.
How many Vezina trophies do you think Price will win over the next six years?
I say zero. How about you.

How many times do you think Price will finish top 5 in all-star voting? I'll say once. Twice tops. How about you?

How many years will price play in a majority of his team's games AND best .910 sv pct? My guess is three times.

Now - about the back three years?
How many Vezinas. I say zero.
All star top 5 finishes. I say zero.
Starts half his team games and bests .910? I say once.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Rask has already slipped. He spent 6 years in the 920s and higher, averaging .926 and 2.16.
Since then, he's fallen to .917 and 2.36. And that's lower thanks to a big bounceback year last year. So we'll see if he falls back to the .910 range this year again.

Howard? There's an obvious line in his career. Everything past 12-13 is beyond his prime - except one outlier of a 26-game season.
Basically, he's been a Bernier-level goalie since 13-14 - the entire 6-year contract (plus last year's ugly season).

Anyway...
Let's put a wager on it.
How many Vezina trophies do you think Price will win over the next six years?
I say zero. How about you.

How many times do you think Price will finish top 5 in all-star voting? I'll say once. Twice tops. How about you?

How many years will price play in a majority of his team's games AND best .910 sv pct? My guess is three times.

Now - about the back three years?
How many Vezinas. I say zero.
All star top 5 finishes. I say zero.
Starts half his team games and bests .910? I say once.

Assuming he stays in Montreal and they don't completely detonate the roster around him to rebuild...

I think in the next three years, he's at least a finalist for a Vezina, if not wins it. Or, if he's fed up with the direction Montreal is going and waives his NMC to be dealt to a team with a chance at a Cup as he's talked about not wanting to plod through his career without a chance at it. The issue is that Montreal hangs him out to dry a lot.

If guys like Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Romanov, Domi, Caulfield ramp up and give the Habs a good team, I'd put him being top 5 in All-Star voting at least twice, maybe all three years. That's a really weird thing to focus in on though. Ain't All-Star voting fan voting?

Majority of games and over .910? I think he does that every single year because I think the Habs are going to be a little bit better than they were this year.

Last three years? Yeah, probably doesn't win a Vezina.
All Star top 5? I'd say that fourth year he's close. Probably not the last two... but not because he's decrepit... he will just be another goalie. And by the time we're talking 24-25, 25-26, 10M for a goalie isn't going to be superstar money. By then, the league is going to be back rolling after COVID times.
Fourth and fifth year I can see half of teams games and over .910... unless the Habs turn to a guy like Cayden Primeau or Charlie Lindgren and deal Price.

I don't think a fall off the cliff is anywhere in the near future for Price. If he's not starting half of their games, I'm thinking it's because a guy like Primeau is pushing him out of the role not because he can't play anymore.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Assuming he stays in Montreal and they don't completely detonate the roster around him to rebuild...

I think in the next three years, he's at least a finalist for a Vezina, if not wins it. Or, if he's fed up with the direction Montreal is going and waives his NMC to be dealt to a team with a chance at a Cup as he's talked about not wanting to plod through his career without a chance at it. The issue is that Montreal hangs him out to dry a lot.

If guys like Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Romanov, Domi, Caulfield ramp up and give the Habs a good team, I'd put him being top 5 in All-Star voting at least twice, maybe all three years. That's a really weird thing to focus in on though. Ain't All-Star voting fan voting?

Majority of games and over .910? I think he does that every single year because I think the Habs are going to be a little bit better than they were this year.

Last three years? Yeah, probably doesn't win a Vezina.
All Star top 5? I'd say that fourth year he's close. Probably not the last two... but not because he's decrepit... he will just be another goalie. And by the time we're talking 24-25, 25-26, 10M for a goalie isn't going to be superstar money. By then, the league is going to be back rolling after COVID times.
Fourth and fifth year I can see half of teams games and over .910... unless the Habs turn to a guy like Cayden Primeau or Charlie Lindgren and deal Price.

I don't think a fall off the cliff is anywhere in the near future for Price. If he's not starting half of their games, I'm thinking it's because a guy like Primeau is pushing him out of the role not because he can't play anymore.

Are you & @MBH saying Top 5 All-star voting for Goalies or all players, the latter being a much harder category. ?

Also MTL would be hard pressed to deal an aging, somewhat declining Price @ his $ & term (as good as he's been). With retention, sure, but likely need to retain at least (guessing) 30% minimum.

Lastly, re: "Covid times"...I don't watch TV, nor MSM/Fake News, nor fear porn, however I just read (2 days ago) that in addition to the 2nd strain found in the UK in recent weeks, a 3rd strain which mutates (from the 2nd one) has been discovered. I can't remember where it was found, nor the source I read it on, it was just too much to process at that moment. In saying that, '24-'26 is so far away & with the rate of change & craziness happening on earth, it wouldn't surprise me if the earth is a barren wasteland with mostly post-apocalyptic zombies & wild beasts roaming freely & foraging for food. EMP blasts? Multiple alien species invasions & space wars? Mothership landing & an invasive species using their ovipositors on humans to incubate and/or gestate hybrid offspring? Yellowstone finally blowing up? Tsunami wiping out the east coast when parts of the Canary Islands fall into the ocean? Asteroid/meteor shower causing Tunguska event 2.0 ? The Great T.P. Shortage of 2022 & the ensuing fecalized No-Go zones? The Anti-Christ & False Prophet make an appearance? The War of Armageddon in the valley of Megiddo, as foretold in a certain holy book? To date, there's been 13 battles/wars fought in that valley iirc.

 

[Konnan511]

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Does AA score 50 goals in LA or is he, yet again, just misused?

It sounds like they have few illusions about AA. The articles I read about him they describes him as an all-offense no-defense player who might make the spots for the 4th line more competitive.

If bouncing from the Wings to Oilers to LA isn't a wakeup call for AA, nothing will get through to him.

 

[Ricelund]

Damn, here's to hoping he gets healthy.

That's a big blow to the Hawks.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Damn, here's to hoping he gets healthy.

That's a big blow to the Hawks.

No Dach or Toews, Chicago wants to challenge us for last it seems.

 

[MBH]

Assuming he stays in Montreal and they don't completely detonate the roster around him to rebuild...

I think in the next three years, he's at least a finalist for a Vezina, if not wins it. Or, if he's fed up with the direction Montreal is going and waives his NMC to be dealt to a team with a chance at a Cup as he's talked about not wanting to plod through his career without a chance at it. The issue is that Montreal hangs him out to dry a lot.

If guys like Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Romanov, Domi, Caulfield ramp up and give the Habs a good team, I'd put him being top 5 in All-Star voting at least twice, maybe all three years. That's a really weird thing to focus in on though. Ain't All-Star voting fan voting?

Majority of games and over .910? I think he does that every single year because I think the Habs are going to be a little bit better than they were this year.

Last three years? Yeah, probably doesn't win a Vezina.
All Star top 5? I'd say that fourth year he's close. Probably not the last two... but not because he's decrepit... he will just be another goalie. And by the time we're talking 24-25, 25-26, 10M for a goalie isn't going to be superstar money. By then, the league is going to be back rolling after COVID times.
Fourth and fifth year I can see half of teams games and over .910... unless the Habs turn to a guy like Cayden Primeau or Charlie Lindgren and deal Price.

I don't think a fall off the cliff is anywhere in the near future for Price. If he's not starting half of their games, I'm thinking it's because a guy like Primeau is pushing him out of the role not because he can't play anymore.

We'll see. But you don't have much recent history on your side.
He's already fallen to some degree.
And he's hitting that age where goalies decline.

It's also highly unlikely the Canadiens find a taker for Carey Price.
How many teams can absorb a $10.5M cap hit?
Even in the good days, the likelihood of finding a GM foolish enough to take this contract was slim.
But now you have the added threat of 3-4 years of a flat cap.
Every month that passes makes that contract more impossible to move.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hawks dropping like flies (3 of top 6)


Statement from Toews: (mystery illness)

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

PTO: [BUF] Riley Sheahan with the Sabres

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

PTO: [BUF] Riley Sheahan with the Sabres

Right near his hometown, I hope he can make it stick and make the team.

 

[jkutswings]

Looks like $1.2M for one year for AA:

Ex-Red Wing Andreas Athanasiou signs $1.2M deal with L.A. Kings

I honestly hope the kid wakes up and succeeds as a middle six winger. If this stop doesn't pan out, he may not get another chance.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

Panthers may have allowance of 5k fans per game per a tweet posted on the main board. Did a little digging and found no confirmation elsewhere. If true it may be the only option to see the Wings live in '21.

And Tampa. IIRC, TB is allowing 3800 fans for Raptors games, so I would assume Lighting would be allowed roughly the same.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Chara signed with WSH?

 

[Winger98]

Chara signed with WSH?

Yeah, I think Boston is done. Their blueline took a hit, their big guys up front are getting older, and Pastrnak is going to be trying to come back from a hip injury in February at the earliest. Washington seems to be gearing up for one last push.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Yeah, I think Boston is done. Their blueline took a hit, their big guys up front are getting older, and Pastrnak is going to be trying to come back from a hip injury in February at the earliest. Washington seems to be gearing up for one last push.

Depending on matchups, I could see BOS out in the 1st, but definitely in the 2nd rd. No Krug & Chara. Their team fed off that PP1 forever. Besides how long can Krejci be a 2C & have great playoff production? They have some decent prospects, my guess is they package some & pick(s) this year as a last shot. I don't see WSH going past the 2nd rd. either though. I'm not sold on their D. It's TB's cup to lose atm.

STL/VGK/COL have a cake walk regular season, one of them will be unprepared for the playoffs. Another 1-2 will have significant injuries, perhaps more than one. When the Wings cruised to Pres. trophies, or even WC reg. season champs, it was hard to flip that proverbial switch. Imagine if STL signed Petro & somehow dumped Faulk (his signing was their undoing) with retention &/or sweetener(s), they'd then be the clear cut favorite in the West, 2nd overall imo. Army made a Huge mistake there. Dallas, imo got hot at the right time, but they're an odd roster w/3 good Dmen + an old/injured Bishop...they won't go past 2nd rd.


Revisionism: Biega @$875,000 Or, Chara @ $795.

 

[Bench]

Are you kidding? We got robbed of a season with Lundqvist and Chara in a last hurrah effort to win the Cup with Ovechkin? Cruel.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm so sad to hear that Boston continues to decline.

No really, the thought of Brad Marchand and his impeccable moral fiber possibly missing the playoffs altogether has shaken me to my very core.

Can't...handle...it...
Gasp!

 

[HoweFan]

I guess it had to happen but I think the Bruins just lost some of their identity.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I guess it had to happen but I think the Bruins just lost some of their identity.

Chara was "pushed out". Read that yesterday, along with the quote: "I'm getting too old to be defending against Ovi, so it's better to join his team".

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

An amicable split. b/w Vonn & PK.