Around the NHL: 2019-20 Part 2

[TehDoak]

Barring a major change, we're not making the playoffs this year.

It's unlikely but they can't give up just yet imo. Only 6 points out - if Florida / Toronto both have mini slumps they can get back into it.

8 points, maybe 9 based on tiebreakers

It's silly to talk about how many points out, etc at this point.

The last few years, it's taken 97-98 pts to make the playoffs in the East.

We have 51 pts with 33 games left.

That's 47 pts in 33 games or a 23-9-1 run. That's a 116 pt pace.

Even if we won 2 games for everyone we lost, that would 22-11, it'd be good for 95 pts, and out of the playoffs.

If you take a deeper look at the schedule, it's going to be worse than you think.

The next 10 games, we have 9 out of 10 games at home with the 1 road game being in NYC.

It's likely we are going to go on a decent-ish run. Probably 7 or so wins.

But, the final 23 games, 14 are on the road. We are 8-14-4 on the road.

So, let's ASSUME, we can get to .500 on the road for our last 15 road games. That's 7-7-1.

That means for our 18 remaining home games.....16-2.

 

[Bendium]

It's silly to talk about how many points out, etc at this point.

The last few years, it's taken 97-98 pts to make the playoffs in the East.

We have 51 pts with 33 games left.

That's 47 pts in 33 games or a 23-9-1 run. That's a 116 pt pace.

Even if we won 2 games for everyone we lost, that would 22-11, it'd be good for 95 pts, and out of the playoffs.

If you take a deeper look at the schedule, it's going to be worse than you think.

The next 10 games, we have 9 out of 10 games at home with the 1 road game being in NYC.

It's likely we are going to go on a decent-ish run. Probably 7 or so wins.

But, the final 23 games, 14 are on the road. We are 8-14-4 on the road.

So, let's ASSUME, we can get to .500 on the road for our last 15 road games. That's 7-7-1.

That means for our 18 remaining home games.....16-2.

Totally agree here. We would need to win 3 out of 4 games for the remainder of the year. We are not even close to having the team to do that. Conversations on this board need to shift to the mindset of a seller and how to get the roster to a playoff caliber roster by the first puck drop next season. Its sad I know.....but it is the reality we face.

 

[OkimLom]

It's silly to talk about how many points out, etc at this point.

The last few years, it's taken 97-98 pts to make the playoffs in the East.

We have 51 pts with 33 games left.

That's 47 pts in 33 games or a 23-9-1 run. That's a 116 pt pace.

Even if we won 2 games for everyone we lost, that would 22-11, it'd be good for 95 pts, and out of the playoffs.

If you take a deeper look at the schedule, it's going to be worse than you think.

The next 10 games, we have 9 out of 10 games at home with the 1 road game being in NYC.

It's likely we are going to go on a decent-ish run. Probably 7 or so wins.

But, the final 23 games, 14 are on the road. We are 8-14-4 on the road.

So, let's ASSUME, we can get to .500 on the road for our last 15 road games. That's 7-7-1.

That means for our 18 remaining home games.....16-2.

This is not even including the records that the teams above us would need to be at, to come down to us.

 

[mechaworm]

Totally agree here. We would need to win 3 out of 4 games for the remainder of the year. We are not even close to having the team to do that. Conversations on this board need to shift to the mindset of a seller and how to get the roster to a playoff caliber roster by the first puck drop next season. Its sad I know.....but it is the reality we face.

I think most people are aware and at peace with us missing the playoffs. There's not much "seller" conversation to be had because there's not much to sell. If somebody wants to give us a late pick for one of Sheary, Vesey, Frolik, Bogosian, okay.

I think most people are okay with the idea of Frolik staying to see if he carves out a role for himself and is worth an extension offer. Nobody expects there to be demand for the other three. And nobody wants to see Girgensons/Larsson offered up around the league, they want to see an extension. So it's basically our trash. And if moving Sheary/Vesey meant calling up Mittelstadt, I don't even know if it'd be worth the 6th rounder.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

This is not even including the records that the teams above us would need to be at, to come down to us.

As of today they are nine points out with a game in hand.

Assuming the Sabres win that game in hand - the gap is seven.

Essentially we would need four more wins than the teams in the way (currently CBJ, PHI & TOR) or potentially 4.5 more wins than FLA if targeting 3rd in division.

(this of course doesn't include loser points but the Sabres have the same chance to pick these up as anybody else).

It's unlikely but nowhere near as impossible as some of you guys are making out.

I expect / hope the Sabres to put a strong run together over the next few weeks with so many home games.

So I expect we are still somewhere in the mix by mid-late February when the TDL looms.

Getting Skinner & VO back will be huge.

 

[TehDoak]

This is not even including the records that the teams above us would need to be at, to come down to us.

Eh, that'll even out as the year goes on. 98 pts should get you in. Focus on winning a whole bunch of games.

What is funny is we'll probably go on a run with a soft-ish home schedule the next 10 games. We'll be in the playoff conversation when the reality of the rest of the schedule hits us.

 

[mechaworm]

Eh, that'll even out as the year goes on. 98 pts should get you in. Focus on winning a whole bunch of games.

What is funny is we'll probably go on a run with a soft-ish home schedule the next 10 games. We'll be in the playoff conversation when the reality of the rest of the schedule hits us.

98 points is almost always enough. It could be less. In the last decade, we've seen that last spot go for 96, 95, 93, 92.

Frankly, I think we're more likely to finish around 78 than 98, so IDGAF much really.

 

[OkimLom]

As of today they are nine points out with a game in hand.

Assuming the Sabres win that game in hand - the gap is seven.

Essentially we would need four more wins than the teams in the way (currently CBJ, PHI & TOR) or potentially 4.5 more wins than FLA if targeting 3rd in division.

(this of course doesn't include loser points but the Sabres have the same chance to pick these up as anybody else).

It's unlikely but nowhere near as impossible as some of you guys are making out.

I expect / hope the Sabres to put a strong run together over the next few weeks with so many home games.

So I expect we are still somewhere in the mix by mid-late February when the TDL looms.

Getting Skinner & VO back will be huge.

I wish I can get to that level of optimism. If history has taught me anything, it's that the Buffalo Sabres are inconsistent, and until proven otherwise, are going into the stretch that they repeatedly have fallen apart especially with the pressure on.

This isn't even mentioning that, the teams ahead of us, for that coveted 3rd spot in the division, have a history being successful or at the very least more consistent than our team during this same stretch.

 

[Jim Bob]

The Tank Index: Which playoff also-rans are in the best...

5. Buffalo Sabres

Seller potential: 6/10. They’ve got a ton of pending FAs on the roster – seriously, look at this, it’s pretty much half the team. The question is how many of them would actually be of interest to a contender. Not many, according to Craig’s trade board, which only included Zach Bogosian. That’s actually kind of depressing.

Goaltending problems: 6/10. It’s Buffalo, so goaltending’s an issue. Linus Ullmark has actually been decent for much of the year, so they may need to nudge up Carter Hutton’s workload. Or, you know, trade all of their goaltenders like they did back in 2015.

Motivation: 7/10. On the one hand, the Sabres know the drill by now. If they’re out of the playoff race by mid-February, they’ll know what to do. On the other hand, the Sabres know the drill by now. They know it really, really well. How many times can you sell a rebuild to your fans before you have to break the cycle and stop cycling out the limited talent you have?

Tank potential total: 19/30. The Sabres are going to have a ton of cap room in the summer, which is when Jason Botterill will really be under the gun to make something happen. Until then, if they fall further out of the race, well, they know the drill.

 

[Jim Bob]

I hope it hits YT...

 

[explore]

Apparently Erik Haula wants out of CAR: Speculation: - Erik Haula on the outs in CAR

He's a LW, but his talent is undeniable. He's 28, has a low cap hit of $2.75 million, and he's a UFA at the end of the year. CAR is apparently looking for RD, which I'm pretty sure the Sabres have a lot of.

I obviously wouldn't send over Risto, Montour, or Jokiharju for a pending UFA, but Colin Miller is very available.

 

[Jim Bob]

Apparently Erik Haula wants out of CAR: Speculation: - Erik Haula on the outs in CAR

He's a LW, but his talent is undeniable. He's 28, has a low cap hit of $2.75 million, and he's a UFA at the end of the year. CAR is apparently looking for RD, which I'm pretty sure the Sabres have a lot of.

I obviously wouldn't send over Risto, Montour, or Jokiharju for a pending UFA, but Colin Miller is very available.

Bogo with 50% retained for Haula!

 

[mechaworm]

The Tank Index: Which playoff also-rans are in the best...

LOL @ Zach Bogosian being our most valuable UFA trade bait. That's enough for me to throw out the whole list.

 

[brian_griffin]

Bogo's recent ice time and/or trade request may make some surrealistic sense if you view this clip superimposing Bogo for Reg Dunlop and Botterill for Joe McGrath.

 

[Zman5778]

Apparently Erik Haula wants out of CAR: Speculation: - Erik Haula on the outs in CAR

He's a LW, but his talent is undeniable. He's 28, has a low cap hit of $2.75 million, and he's a UFA at the end of the year. CAR is apparently looking for RD, which I'm pretty sure the Sabres have a lot of.

I obviously wouldn't send over Risto, Montour, or Jokiharju for a pending UFA, but Colin Miller is very available.

Miller for Haula, then hope he'll extend with us for a reasonable deal? I think I do that deal.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

Miller for Haula, then hope he'll extend with us for a reasonable deal? I think I do that deal.

This exactly, he will have a lot of offers once he's a UFA. Getting him now helps this season and gives us a leg up on signing him.

 

[explore]

Miller for Haula, then hope he'll extend with us for a reasonable deal? I think I do that deal.

I'd expect Botterill to get a feel for Haula to make sure that he doesn't hate Buffalo with the burning heat of a thousand suns before pulling the trigger, but after determining that that isn't the case, I'd be fine with taking the risk of UFA-to-be Haula for Miller. At the very least, at least he'd get playing time in Buffalo (assuming he doesn't get injured.)

 

[Tatanka]

I'd expect Botterill to get a feel for Haula to make sure that he doesn't hate Buffalo with the burning heat of a thousand suns before pulling the trigger, but after determining that that isn't the case, I'd be fine with taking the risk of UFA-to-be Haula for Miller. At the very least, at least he'd get playing time in Buffalo (assuming he doesn't get injured.)

At the very least it would send a signal to the team that management wants to win now and not sometime in 2022.

 

[Buffaloed]

Speculation on why Gallant was fired:
Sharks GM could be ready to play Let’s Make a Deal
There are a couple of theories out there. One is that Gallant’s style with the players had changed over the 30 months and he went from being a players’ coach to taking more of a “my way or the highway” approach. Another making the rounds is the Knights couldn’t get Gallant signed to an extension, saw Peter DeBoer available and decided to move on. Both are just speculation, but the reality is Gallant will be back behind an NHL bench soon.

This is from Bruce Garrioch. I'd rate it 2.7 on the PHam accuracy meter.

 

[Chainshot]

The Jackets handle the Jets, win another and churn on with their 6th straight win.

 

[OkimLom]

The Jackets handle the Jets, win another and churn on with their 6th straight win.

creates a 10 point gap for Sabres now for a playoff spot (minus any assumed tie breakers)

 

[Chainshot]

creates a 10 point gap for Sabres now for a playoff spot (minus any assumed tie breakers)

They've won 10 out of 12 and I think that win puts them back in the top WC spot. Teams above them should be wary, Torts has them firing on all cylinders and of course Jarmo found them goaltending.

 

[sabremike]

creates a 10 point gap for Sabres now for a playoff spot (minus any assumed tie breakers)

This essentially means we are de facto out of playoff contention, so trading for Haula (a rental) would be a real bad idea at this point. Just hope that the cap space everyone keeps talking about allows us to outbid everyone for him this offseason.

 

[Chainshot]

This essentially means we are de facto out of playoff contention, so trading for Haula (a rental) would be a real bad idea at this point. Just hope that the cap space everyone keeps talking about allows us to outbid everyone for him this offseason.

Eh, if they rent-to-own on Haula, I'm interested. They have to find value and start filling in the lineup going forward.

 

[OkimLom]

They've won 10 out of 12 and I think that win puts them back in the top WC spot. Teams above them should be wary, Torts has them firing on all cylinders and of course Jarmo found them goaltending.

You also have Florida who is on a run as well and they are the gatekeepers for the division. Then there’s Toronto who will be in the hunt as well.