Around the NHL #17, the 18/19 on-season

[Fig]

I wonder though, Gulutzan did manage to get the Flames to the playoffs. Took a massive winning streak to do it granted and a career backup playing out of his mind for a month or so. Maybe he has another beer to beer chat the guys and gets lucky?

But then again, they simply lack the defencemen needed to be successful. The modern game is built around transitioning quickly and Oilers lost their best and really only player capable of doing that at a high level in Sekera. They're rushing and probably ruining Bouchard for that very reason.

I agree with you.

Gully isn't as bad as some fans think he is IMO. I honestly think he's better than Torts as of now. His greatest error IMO was that he felt that he could let the roster self manage and self teach here in Calgary. That didn't work too well since we had Hartley as a coach prior to him. I don't think he makes the same mistakes as he did here if given another roster, but some of the optics would look similar. Furthermore, his system allowed a team playing lack lustre to win at around .500. I think he could squeeze out similar results with the Oilers roster if not improve on being a better coach. With how Gully handcuffed our dmen, I think the talent they have if they fit better in his system (as in, he doesn't square peg round hole them as badly) would be on par as what Gully worked with here. I think he could actually survive for a few years in Edmonton with reasonable results (not amazing, but reasonable) and give us headaches for a while.

I really do think that Gully is going to be a head coach for a long while after the current generation of dinosaurs die off.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

At this point they need to completely clean house. Get rid of MacT and all the old buys, dump chia, bring in new leadership and let them pick their guys

"There’s one other guy I believe in hockey today, that is still working in the game, that has won more Stanley Cups than me, so I think I know a little bit about winning if that’s ever a concern."

- Kevin Lowe, April 2013​

 

[Volica]

Wait, where have we heard the narrative:
Oilers just need a management and coaching change!

Seems like every 3-4 years we're hearing the same thing. I think there's something fundamentally wrong with that team... Not sure how many management groups and coaches can be cycled through.

Remember, Oil fans were patting themselves on the back mighty hard when they hired Chia and Mac.

 

[crackdown44]

Wait, where have we heard the narrative:
Oilers just need a management and coaching change!

Seems like every 3-4 years we're hearing the same thing. I think there's something fundamentally wrong with that team... Not sure how many management groups and coaches can be cycled through.

Remember, Oil fans were patting themselves on the back mighty hard when they hired Chia and Mac.

TMac I get. I actually thought he was a decent coach too but he seems to really be mishandling his staff in Edmonton. We’re they legit excited about chia? How could anyone be excited about chia? Thinking the hall trade was good when it happened was bad enough

 

[Volica]

TMac I get. I actually thought he was a decent coach too but he seems to really be mishandling his staff in Edmonton. We’re they legit excited about chia? How could anyone be excited about chia? Thinking the hall trade was good when it happened was bad enough

Honestly.
Not even sure how to fix that team as it stands.
You have 12+ million in cap next season (depending on how much it raises). No goalies, and your entire team still signed, or RFA (except Chiasson and Garrison). Sekera might be back? (who knows)

So you have to:
A) Find 2 goalies.
B) Resign RFA's
C) Try to fix the team.

All with 12+ million in cap

Kris Russell and Milan Lucic are signed for 10 million in cap and aren't UFA until past the 2021 season (Russ, Luc is 2023).

They have no 1D.
They've got a few top 4 guys who collectively are okay.
They've got the worst bottom 7 forwards I've ever seen in the NHL.

You can't even do the Calgary thing, where you upgrade via trade and UFA, because you have no cash in UFA and you have no assets that people will give a in depth moves.

 

[Rubi]

"There’s one other guy I believe in hockey today, that is still working in the game, that has won more Stanley Cups than me, so I think I know a little bit about winning if that’s ever a concern."

- Kevin Lowe, April 2013​

I can hammer a nail into a 2x4 but I don't have a f***ing clue about how to build a house.
- Mike Haidenger, October 2018

 

[Fig]

I blame coaching. Hartley dragged worse into the ploffs once upon a time. A proper coach could utilize the Oilers properly. Honestly speaking, I think Gully could do better than TMac and I'm not saying it in a condescending way. Gully won't repeat the same mistakes from the Calgary roster to the Edmonton roster. I think he'd immediately be able to solidify the Oilers as a guaranteed bubble team year in year out for the next few seasons, which would be a successful feat due to the handcuffs Chia has placed on that roster.

Gully is a very good macro strategist. He's just a weak as a micro strategist so far, but I think he will develop that skill as time comes. A dangerous combination could be Gully as HC and a guy like Torts as an AC. I think there's a few former HC out there that could be a good mentor to Gully as an AC to make him a more effective HC at the NHL level.

 

[crackdown44]

"There’s one other guy I believe in hockey today, that is still working in the game, that has won more Stanley Cups than me, so I think I know a little bit about winning if that’s ever a concern."

- Kevin Lowe, April 2013​

They just named his son Keegan captain of their AHL team

 

[Volica]

I blame coaching. Hartley dragged worse into the ploffs once upon a time. A proper coach could utilize the Oilers properly. Honestly speaking, I think Gully could do better than TMac and I'm not saying it in a condescending way. Gully won't repeat the same mistakes from the Calgary roster to the Edmonton roster. I think he'd immediately be able to solidify the Oilers as a guaranteed bubble team year in year out for the next few seasons, which would be a successful feat due to the handcuffs Chia has placed on that roster.

Gully is a very good macro strategist. He's just a weak as a micro strategist so far, but I think he will develop that skill as time comes. A dangerous combination could be Gully as HC and a guy like Torts as an AC. I think there's a few former HC out there that could be a good mentor to Gully as an AC to make him a more effective HC at the NHL level.

Wait. In your world Gully learns from his mistakes?

 

[Lunatik]

Honestly.
Not even sure how to fix that team as it stands.

Chiarelli has really f***ed them hard. Buyouts, salary retained deals and paying teams to take players and bad contracts for bad contracts are going to be their only realistic options. Their worst contract, Lucic is also essentially buyout proof. I think they are going to have to get creative, especially with Lucic.

What I would do if I were there GM is start with something like this in the off-season:

Kris Russell

Buyout

2019-20 $916,667 cap penalty. $3,083,333 in cap savings.
2020-21 $3,416,667 cap penalty. $583,333 in cap savings.
2021-22 $916,667 cap penalty
2022-23 $916,667 cap penalty​

Andrej Sekera

Buyout (if he is not LTIRetired)

2019-20 $2,500.000 cap penalty. $3,000,000 in cap savings.
2020-21 $2,500.000 cap penalty. $3,000,000 in cap savings.
2021-22 $1,500.000 cap penalty
2022-23 $1,500.000 cap penalty​

Trade (if he is LTIRetired)

Trade Sekera and a 3rd to Vancouver for a 7th
​

Milan Lucic

Trade

Trade Lucic and a 1st (I am on the assumption that the pick is in the 10-15 range) to Montreal for Karl Alzner at $3 million. The Habs could then eat 50% of Lucic's deal and trade him for futures (at $3 million, Lucic will have some decent value IMO).
​

If Sekera is healthy and bought out, this would save the Oilers a hair over $9 million next season and a little over $6.5 million the following year. Alzner would replace Russell and add someone that can help their PK (I also think at $3 million, Alzner isn't a bad contract).

If Sekera is LTIRetired, then the Oilers would save a little over $11.5 million next season and about $9 million the following.

​

 

[Fig]

They just named his son Keegan captain of their AHL team

There's enough content to laugh at the Oilers IMO. This one seems like a little bit of a reach, if anything it sorta makes sense.

There's a possibility that this is an example of nepotism, but I don't think it is completely nepotism. It's the AHL team after all and often times, the best player on the AHL roster is not the captain. This is likely due to the need for consistency and the with best players on the roster generally are recalled to the big club, you don't want a rotating cast of captains and alternates.

For instance, we had guys like Rod Pelley and Mike Angelidis (jorneymen) as the captain of the Heat and you can easily say that players like them have essentially no chance of being called to the big club. The only alternates that Stockton had that were perhaps were "odd" (in terms of talent that gets called up) was Garnet Hathaway. But he held that position since 2015 and I think he surprised management into developing into a legitimate call up option.

I think it's perhaps a little bit of nepotism that Keegan Lowe is the captain of the Condors, but I also think that it's a statement on the fact that he is not NHL calibre material and a stable leadership role for their farm as well as an individual who can relay information for Kevin Lowe.

 

[Calculon]

McDavid on his new record:

You know what, it's whatever. I'm not overly proud of it," McDavid said. "I don't think it's a stat we should be proud of either. It is what it is, but we found a way to get a goal there at the end so we don't ever have to talk about it again."

I look forward to seeing this same quote used when he eventually leaves Edmonton.

 

[Volica]

Buying out and trading with firsts attached seems to be the only way to regulate the cap problem in Edmonton.
The major problem thereafter is the fact the team will have a lot of cap, no first, no depth and no goalies lol.

I am in the personal belief that the cap is just as important as a star player or good depth... and the successful teams work around it the best they can.

This seems like a UFA class where people will overpay. Like there's some good names, some middle table names; but man teams are going to overpay on some of these guys. Edmonton believes their window is open after that season two years ago; they're not going to be making smart value moves.

 

[Fig]

Wait. In your world Gully learns from his mistakes?

Sarcasm? or is it really necessary to keep digging at Gully? IMO it's foolish to disregard a guy like Gully. You keep tabs on a guy like that in case he becomes an enemy, because he could be a dangerous enemy. I'm not digging at you or anything, I just think Gully if given the right tools could be a very dangerous head coach for a long time. I wouldn't sleep on him.

In my world, I think Gully is superior to Yeo. Yet Yeo seems to somehow portray himself in a way that allows him to stick as an NHL coach longer. Why? I don't think Gully would do worse with the rosters Yeo has to work with. Ignoring future cap implications and potential, the current Edmonton roster is on par to what Gully walked into two seasons ago and I think they could play Gully's cycle styled game. Furthermore, I think Gully would tweak his system to heavily request the forwards to help on the dzone coverage to deal with the dmen's weaknesses, then lure the opposing team into being ground down in their dzone to expose themselves constantly to CMD breakaways. I think he'd take his lessons from Calgary here and work harder with the roster to help them buy into the system.

Yeah, he'd ride CMD into the ground, but I think with him at the helm, I'd assume the Oilers are at least challenging as a bubble team every season, as opposed to the complete collapses that TMac has presided over. Consider that a confused Calgary team playing half heartedly and constantly reverting to bad Hartley habits still maintained around .500. In his final season here, I believe Gully was around .500 until the epic 2-8-0 end to the season. I think Gully can easily replicate those numbers with Edmonton's roster. In a super bizarre way, I think that Edmonton's d corps which doesn't have the higher end puck moving dmen we have would actually fit better in Gully's defense system. IMO Gully used our mobile dmen in a way that made us clog our own neutral zone and cause us to run into ourselves. Edmonton's dmen's inability to move as quickly actually benefits them I think.

Chiarelli has really ****ed them hard. Buyouts, salary retained deals and paying teams to take players and bad contracts for bad contracts are going to be their only realistic options. Their worst contract, Lucic is also essentially buyout proof. I think they are going to have to get creative, especially with Lucic.

What I would do if I were there GM is start with something like this in the off-season:

Kris Russell

Buyout

2019-20 $916,667 cap penalty. $3,083,333 in cap savings.
2020-21 $3,416,667 cap penalty. $583,333 in cap savings.
2021-22 $916,667 cap penalty
2022-23 $916,667 cap penalty​

Andrej Sekera

Buyout (if he is not LTIRetired)

2019-20 $2,500.000 cap penalty. $3,000,000 in cap savings.
2020-21 $2,500.000 cap penalty. $3,000,000 in cap savings.
2021-22 $1,500.000 cap penalty
2022-23 $1,500.000 cap penalty​

Trade (if he is LTIRetired)

Trade Sekera and a 3rd to Vancouver for a 7th
​

Milan Lucic

Trade

Trade Lucic and a 1st (I am on the assumption that the pick is in the 10-15 range) to Montreal for Karl Alzner at $3 million. The Habs could then eat 50% of Lucic's deal and trade him for futures (at $3 million, Lucic will have some decent value IMO).
​

If Sekera is healthy and bought out, this would save the Oilers a hair over $9 million next season and a little over $6.5 million the following year. Alzner would replace Russell and add someone that can help their PK (I also think at $3 million, Alzner isn't a bad contract).

If Sekera is LTIRetired, then the Oilers would save a little over $11.5 million next season and about $9 million the following.

​

I get where you're coming from, but IMO, I think the Oilers are better off trying to ride out Russell and Lucic. I don't think anyone takes those contracts otherwise. RNH in a Eberle/Strome type move would keep them afloat at worst, but if that idiot Chia can't do something like a RNH/Drouin swap with a team who needs another C badly...

Ironically, I think their best strategy now literally is to throw RFAs and prospects out there rather than move high end futures to move cap. For instance, they're better off playing Yamamoto/Pulujarvi over trying to use Yamamoto as a sweetener to move Lucic or Russell. In the past we'd laugh that they're rushing and ruining prospects, but Oilers have vets and CMD to guide prospects now.

Assuming that RNH / Drouin swap is a possibility with minor futures used to balance value, something like this is possible:

Drouin - CMD - Rattie
Lucic - Drai - Kassian
Caggiula - Strome - Chiasson
Khaira - Brodziak - Reider

/Yamamoto/Pulu

That's a grindier version of the Flames two seasons back IMO with similar issues on the RW and top end RHS issues. I think it's relatively realistic and it's workable and relatively in the clear after 2 seasons or so assuming Chia is gone and not adding more anchors.

 

[Lunatik]

Sarcasm? or is it really necessary to keep digging at Gully? IMO it's foolish to disregard a guy like Gully. You keep tabs on a guy like that in case he becomes an enemy, because he could be a dangerous enemy. I'm not digging at you or anything, I just think Gully if given the right tools could be a very dangerous head coach for a long time. I wouldn't sleep on him.

In my world, I think Gully is superior to Yeo. Yet Yeo seems to somehow portray himself in a way that allows him to stick as an NHL coach longer. Why? I don't think Gully would do worse with the rosters Yeo has to work with. Ignoring future cap implications and potential, the current Edmonton roster is on par to what Gully walked into two seasons ago and I think they could play Gully's cycle styled game. Furthermore, I think Gully would tweak his system to heavily request the forwards to help on the dzone coverage to deal with the dmen's weaknesses, then lure the opposing team into being ground down in their dzone to expose themselves constantly to CMD breakaways. I think he'd take his lessons from Calgary here and work harder with the roster to help them buy into the system.

Yeah, he'd ride CMD into the ground, but I think with him at the helm, I'd assume the Oilers are at least challenging as a bubble team every season, as opposed to the complete collapses that TMac has presided over. Consider that a confused Calgary team playing half heartedly and constantly reverting to bad Hartley habits still maintained around .500. In his final season here, I believe Gully was around .500 until the epic 2-8-0 end to the season. I think Gully can easily replicate those numbers with Edmonton's roster. In a super bizarre way, I think that Edmonton's d corps which doesn't have the higher end puck moving dmen we have would actually fit better in Gully's defense system. IMO Gully used our mobile dmen in a way that made us clog our own neutral zone and cause us to run into ourselves. Edmonton's dmen's inability to move as quickly actually benefits them I think.



I get where you're coming from, but IMO, I think the Oilers are better off trying to ride out Russell and Lucic. I don't think anyone takes those contracts otherwise. RNH in a Eberle/Strome type move would keep them afloat at worst, but if that idiot Chia can't do something like a RNH/Drouin swap with a team who needs another C badly...

Ironically, I think their best strategy now literally is to throw RFAs and prospects out there rather than move high end futures to move cap. For instance, they're better off playing Yamamoto/Pulujarvi over trying to use Yamamoto as a sweetener to move Lucic or Russell. In the past we'd laugh that they're rushing and ruining prospects, but Oilers have vets and CMD to guide prospects now.

Assuming that RNH / Drouin swap is a possibility with minor futures used to balance value, something like this is possible:

Drouin - CMD - Rattie
Lucic - Drai - Kassian
Caggiula - Strome - Chiasson
Khaira - Brodziak - Reider

/Yamamoto/Pulu

That's a grindier version of the Flames two seasons back IMO with similar issues on the RW and top end RHS issues. I think it's relatively realistic and it's workable and relatively in the clear after 2 seasons or so assuming Chia is gone and not adding more anchors.

The thing is, they need to move out salary to even fill out their roster and re-sign guys. They have 11.5 million in space next year, with 8 bodies to sign/re-sign including Talbot and Puljujarvi (that is probably $7.5-8.5 right there. Any rise in the cap could very easily be countered with available bonuses to Pulju, Bouchard and Yamamoto.

 

[Volica]

Sarcasm? or is it really necessary to keep digging at Gully? IMO it's foolish to disregard a guy like Gully. You keep tabs on a guy like that in case he becomes an enemy, because he could be a dangerous enemy. I'm not digging at you or anything, I just think Gully if given the right tools could be a very dangerous head coach for a long time. I wouldn't sleep on him.

In my world, I think Gully is superior to Yeo. Yet Yeo seems to somehow portray himself in a way that allows him to stick as an NHL coach longer. Why? I don't think Gully would do worse with the rosters Yeo has to work with. Ignoring future cap implications and potential, the current Edmonton roster is on par to what Gully walked into two seasons ago and I think they could play Gully's cycle styled game. Furthermore, I think Gully would tweak his system to heavily request the forwards to help on the dzone coverage to deal with the dmen's weaknesses, then lure the opposing team into being ground down in their dzone to expose themselves constantly to CMD breakaways. I think he'd take his lessons from Calgary here and work harder with the roster to help them buy into the system.

Sarcasm.
It's the same guy who kept the Flames bottom 6 intact player by player for 50 games last season even if it was obvious they couldn't score.
It's the same guy who kept the Flames PP intact for 40 games in the season, even if it was obvious it wasn't working.

Gulutzan isn't a good coach. I wish he was, but he wasn't.

He took a team that should have been playing with a fast pace push, and turned them into a back heavy bog it down/Corsi generating thing.

 

[Fig]

The thing is, they need to move out salary to even fill out their roster and re-sign guys. They have 11.5 million in space next year, with 8 bodies to sign/re-sign including Talbot and Puljujarvi (that is probably $7.5-8.5 right there. Any rise in the cap could very easily be countered with available bonuses to Pulju, Bouchard and Yamamoto.

So you're thinking something like 5-5.5AAV for Talbot and 2.5-3.0 for Pulujarvi? With Chia, I think that's possible... but with Gibson and Bennett as comparable, If Chia is turfed, couldn't a reasonable GM get them both around 7 mil? I don't think Pulujarvi is that big of a deal cap wise, but worst case, I wouldn't be surprised if they could move Pulujarvi for an ELC. It's nickels and dimes still, but Chicago was able to make it work by surrounding Kane and Toews with low cost talent. Edmonton should be able to do the same as their prospect quality is far superior to what Chicago has been able to boast in the last 5 years.

This point aside though, I really was still saying that Edmonton could potentially survive and ice a respectable roster without overpaying to move our Lucic and Russell. 11.5 mil for 8 guys is tight for sure assuming two of them take 7.5 mil which leaves 6 guys at 667K or essentially league minimum. A Drouin for RNH swap gives an extra half mil which means 750K which is slightly easier to work with. Flipping guys like Reider and Kassian at the TDL could help a lot as well and filling them with guys willing to take low salary just to stick (ie: Chiasson) would work and it's not horribly dire or impossible to fix without cratering something.

Assuming RNH, Kassian and Reider out and nothing new in, just promote Pulujarvi (making Kassian money), Yamamoto, and drag someone as the 13th forward for league minimum.

Sarcasm.
It's the same guy who kept the Flames bottom 6 intact player by player for 50 games last season even if it was obvious they couldn't score.
It's the same guy who kept the Flames PP intact for 40 games in the season, even if it was obvious it wasn't working.

Gulutzan isn't a good coach. I wish he was, but he wasn't.

He took a team that should have been playing with a fast pace push, and turned them into a back heavy bog it down/Corsi generating thing.

You said sarcasm... but explained the opposite...?

Yeah, Gully has his issues. But he's more aware of them now. I think he's at least on par with Green if given that same roster. I think he's superior to Torts if given that roster. The guy knows cycle styled games and has no idea how to work rush styled games, but if you give him the right roster to his skills, he's damn dangerous. I don't think you can call a guy like that a guy who isn't a good coach. Maligned perhaps, but not good?

 

[Lunatik]

So you're thinking something like 5-5.5AAV for Talbot and 2.5-3.0 for Pulujarvi? With Chia, I think that's possible... but with Gibson and Bennett as comparable, If Chia is turfed, couldn't a reasonable GM get them both around 7 mil? I don't think Pulujarvi is that big of a deal cap wise, but worst case, I wouldn't be surprised if they could move Pulujarvi for an ELC. It's nickels and dimes still, but Chicago was able to make it work by surrounding Kane and Toews with low cost talent. Edmonton should be able to do the same as their prospect quality is far superior to what Chicago has been able to boast in the last 5 years.

This point aside though, I really was still saying that Edmonton could potentially survive and ice a respectable roster without overpaying to move our Lucic and Russell. 11.5 mil for 8 guys is tight for sure assuming two of them take 7.5 mil which leaves 6 guys at 667K or essentially league minimum. A Drouin for RNH swap gives an extra half mil which means 750K which is slightly easier to work with. Flipping guys like Reider and Kassian at the TDL could help a lot as well and filling them with guys willing to take low salary just to stick (ie: Chiasson) would work and it's not horribly dire or impossible to fix without cratering something.

Assuming RNH, Kassian and Reider out and nothing new in, just promote Pulujarvi (making Kassian money), Yamamoto, and drag someone as the 13th forward for league minimum.

It's too early to guess what money Puljujarvi will get on his next deal, so I was predicting somewhere between 3-4 million because if he does break out at all and puts up 35+ points, he will get in that range and rightfully so. As for Talbot, he will get 4-5 million in a short term deal.

They aren't going to wait out Lucic's deal, with 4 years left, that is too long to wait out. Russell's and Sekera's sure... but waiting 4 years is simply too much.

Also, I don't think they should trade Nuge for Drouin at all. Nuge is a better all around player, has shown chemistry with McDavid and only makes 500k more than Drouin. Downgrading to save 500k seems like a mistake.

They could fill out their roster with minimum salary guys, but quite frankly they aren't good enough to handle that and they will struggle greatly.

 

[Rubi]

Well this really has to suck for Matthew's kid brother...

 

[Rubi]

Looks like the Nylander situation will either end in a short term bridge deal or a trade.

 

[Mobiandi]

Bridge and a trade, been saying it all summer

 

[Lunatik]

Bridge and a trade, been saying it all summer

I think an offer sheet (or imminent threat of one) and trade is more likely because it is Nylander's best chance at getting at getting teh best contract possible. That way the Leafs will have just 3 options. Take compensation, match (if matched, they cannot trade Nylander for 365 days) or agree to a trade before he can sign an offer sheet.

 

[Volica]

I just look at that Nashville team, and wonder why they aren't offersheeting Nylander.
The forward group along with some goalie playoff performances has always been the Achilles heel of the Preds, and here's this guy that they can simply pay to play; for the cost of a few draft picks. You make that trade all day, pick 25+ and some odds and ends for a 22/3 year old that'll score 60 points a season.

 

[Lunatik]

I just look at that Nashville team, and wonder why they aren't offersheeting Nylander.
The forward group along with some goalie playoff performances has always been the Achilles heel of the Preds, and here's this guy that they can simply pay to play; for the cost of a few draft picks. You make that trade all day, pick 25+ and some odds and ends for a 22/3 year old that'll score 60 points a season.

Nashville would need to re-acquire their 3rd round pick. Without a 3rd, they cannot offer more than $4,059,322 averaged over 5 years (compensation is a 2nd) or less than $10,148,302 averaged over 5 years (compensation is four 1sts). All compensation in between requires their own 3rd round pick.

 

[Volica]

Nashville would need to re-acquire their 3rd round pick. Without a 3rd, they cannot offer more than $4,059,322 averaged over 5 years (compensation is a 2nd) or less than $10,148,302 averaged over 5 years (compensation is four 1sts). All compensation in between requires their own 3rd round pick.

Not the hardest thing in the world to get your 3rd back.
Avs are in the same boat, a team with a bunch of cap, and likely a good team.

Just think spending a 1st-2nd-3rd is a small price for someone like Nylander if you're a playoff team.