Around The League 2020-21 offseason part II

[Camille the Eel]

Too bad the players and the owners dont want a bubble. If they have to play in a bubble, then there will not be a season

Really? I have not been following things too closely but the last I heard was division realignment to play teams close by for a few weeks at a time - this meaning no travel - I interpreted it as only short bus trips bereeen games at a central location or at home arenas say in NY that are at most an hours ride apart. If the players live at home and the family limits its contacts, it’s a modified bubble concept. At least they could try something like that. Or the players live and take meals together in a hotel but these sessions of play alternate with a week or two off periodically. With testing on the way back in, something could be worked out.

 

[Camille the Eel]

You’d think for the $ they make, and the TV money that would keep at least some $ flowing, they’d all find a way to pull in their belts and get by for a while.

 

[Darkauron]

Really? I have not been following things too closely but the last I heard was division realignment to play teams close by for a few weeks at a time - this meaning no travel - I interpreted it as only short bus trips bereeen games at a central location or at home arenas say in NY that are at most an hours ride apart. If the players live at home and the family limits its contacts, it’s a modified bubble concept. At least they could try something like that. Or the players live and take meals together in a hotel but these sessions of play alternate with a week or two off periodically. With testing on the way back in, something could be worked out.

That is not really a bubble per say. The bubbles they players dont want to do is a hub city for each division. Any plan that has players in a hotel without seeing their families for any stretch of time is off the table afaik

 

[Camille the Eel]

Wow. Not even 2 week stretches of isolation? Jeez. If you work on an offshore fishing boat you deal with that.

 

[JrFischer54]

The situation with the NFL beginning to have major Covid outbreaks in a couple more teams at once this week just makes it doubly clear that playing in a quarantined bubble is the sound way to conduct pro sports right now. Between the NHL’s and NBA’s late summer experience and this current NFL model, there’s just a clear choice. MLB managed this summer, I know, but times have got much worse epidemic wise.
It’s up to the league, ownership and the union to make it work. As it’s a question of keeping our sport alive through a tough patch, they should all be motivated.

mlb did not have success at all during their season. they had to yank a player from game 6 of the world series when he shouldn't even have been playing in the game. mlb was lucky by a few days otherwise i'm sure more players would've tested positive then what? delay the world series mid series? the only way this works is with bubbles the idea of teams flying from city to city during a pandemic and not expecting cases to show up is so insanely moronic.

 

[JrFischer54]

That is not really a bubble per say. The bubbles they players dont want to do is a hub city for each division. Any plan that has players in a hotel without seeing their families for any stretch of time is off the table afaik

thats fine then just cancel the season and the players don't get paid for their "lost season" and everything picks up next year where we left off contract wise. OR play in a bubble and those that don't want to play can sit out and those who want to play can play.

 

[My3Sons]

thats fine then just cancel the season and the players don't get paid for their "lost season" and everything picks up next year where we left off contract wise. OR play in a bubble and those that don't want to play can sit out and those who want to play can play.

Is it just the players or do some owners want to skip a season if fans cannot attend games?

 

[JrFischer54]

Is it just the players or do some owners want to skip a season if fans cannot attend games?

i don't know i'm sure some probably do but honestly a lot of nhl teams still lose money with fans in the stands. I would assume having no fans in the stands and not having to pay event staff has to kinda cancel out somewhat? they would stand to lose a lot more with no tv money? or would their negotiating power be less with a future tv deal? could be stupid questions i'm asking but i don't know.

playing in a bubble isn't cheap for the owners and then having to pay salaries on top of it? does the nhl absorb a % of hotel stay and food and security? would the nhlpa be on the hook for some of that too?

I do wonder though if they do cancel the season what teams benefit most from that? bottom teams like us with young rosters? who recent draft picks are still playing in other leagues? can't think contenders are happy that a year will be taken off their windows? the draft would follow the same format as last canceled season? You gotta think the nhl would weigh it more for the teams that didn't even make the play in round right?

 

[Darkauron]

There are a good amount of owners that have no problem with skipping the season, as they predict they will end up making less money if the season goes ahead + there being no fans in the stands too. And players are upset about escrow

 

[Camille the Eel]

and the fans - us - we - are chopped liver.

 

[NJDevs26]

mlb did not have success at all during their season. they had to yank a player from game 6 of the world series when he shouldn't even have been playing in the game. mlb was lucky by a few days otherwise i'm sure more players would've tested positive then what? delay the world series mid series? the only way this works is with bubbles the idea of teams flying from city to city during a pandemic and not expecting cases to show up is so insanely moronic.

Their season was a success to the degree they made it all the way through without permanently canceled games (or fatalities) in the regular season, an uninterrupted playoffs and with a legit champion. Lucky sure but they made it, and I’ll say the same thing about the NFL if they make it to the SB without canceled games or interrupted and virus ravaged playoffs.

Whether it was a success financially is a different argument though, and partly why the NHL is probably going to drag their season down to as few games as possible. But really they can’t lay out entirely, the PR hit will be brutal - to not even try to have a season when all these other sports have, and have so far made it is another self inflicted head wound this sport doesn’t need right now. Especially for fan bases like ours that haven’t played since March.

 

[Triumph]

I think the owners are resolved to playing a season, but right now they have to threaten that they will not play a season. To me, the owners don't have a leg to stand on here - they have the escrow system and they managed to negotiate an end to the season. What I don't think team owners anticipated was that not only would attendance fall to zero but that TV ratings would crater.

Psychologically, I think it would be a lot better if there were just a salary rollback after the next CBA negotiation. The escrow system can stand, as it can pay out players more money than they anticipated - I think this happened in 2005-06. But having revenues be so untethered from the salary cap is bad for all involved.

 

[Satans Hockey]

I would assume having no fans in the stands and not having to pay event staff has to kinda cancel out somewhat?

A lot of the ticket people and other front office workers are salaried and have to work the games anyway and they also have interns. Quite a bunch of the game day only staff get paid per event and it's not a lot of money anyway and the rest are mainly making minimum wage.

Even if they have a half filled building they are making way more money with people in the stands with how much they are paying for tickets, food, drinks, merch and parking. Selling suites brings in big money as well.

 

[JrFischer54]

Their season was a success to the degree they made it all the way through without permanently canceled games (or fatalities) in the regular season, an uninterrupted playoffs and with a legit champion. Lucky sure but they made it, and I’ll say the same thing about the NFL if they make it to the SB without canceled games or interrupted and virus ravaged playoffs.

Whether it was a success financially is a different argument though, and partly why the NHL is probably going to drag their season down to as few games as possible. But really they can’t lay out entirely, the PR hit will be brutal - to not even try to have a season when all these other sports have, and have so far made it is another self inflicted head wound this sport doesn’t need right now. Especially for fan bases like ours that haven’t played since March.

mlb did lose games during the regular season and then went to a bubble for the playoffs and boom it worked til the very end.

football followed mlb with travel for regular season but they don't have the luxury of missing games since their season is so short. but they have to jump through massive hoops to get this done both mlb and nfl. nba will do travel and will 1000000000000% run into the same problem just like the nhl will if they come back.

 

[NJDevs26]

mlb did lose games during the regular season and then went to a bubble for the playoffs and boom it worked til the very end.

football followed mlb with travel for regular season but they don't have the luxury of missing games since their season is so short. but they have to jump through massive hoops to get this done both mlb and nfl. nba will do travel and will 1000000000000% run into the same problem just like the nhl will if they come back.

Baseball made up every game other than an unnecessary doubleheader with the Cardinals they could have made up before the playoffs if the games mattered. Games were postponed, not canceled. Every league will have issues but so far the only one whose season is a total mess is college football.

 

[Triumph]

Baseball made up every game other than an unnecessary doubleheader with the Cardinals they could have made up before the playoffs if the games mattered. Games were postponed, not canceled. Every league will have issues but so far the only one whose season is a total mess is college football.

The difference is that the spread in the population is much higher now. In July-August, the country was averaging around 60,000 new cases a day which fell to around 40,000/day by October 1. We're now at 150,000 cases/day and climbing - who knows where we will be in 2 weeks, post-Thanksgiving infections. Some of this increase is surely due to improved testing, but I suspect most of it is not.

 

[NJDevs26]

The difference is that the spread in the population is much higher now. In July-August, the country was averaging around 60,000 new cases a day which fell to around 40,000/day by October 1. We're now at 150,000 cases/day and climbing - who knows where we will be in 2 weeks, post-Thanksgiving infections. Some of this increase is surely due to improved testing, but I suspect most of it is not.

While I agree in principle I've been a naysayer for months on both baseball and football - especially football given they've made no tangible adjustments at all unlike baseball which shortened their schedule and shaved travel - and so far have been proven wrong. Now the NFL might be at least on DEFCON 2 with this Ravens situation but even that is only one game that in theory could be meaningless by Week 18.

Hockey's a little easier in the respect you can spread out games and (like baseball) lessen travel to a degree, but it's also harder in both timing like you said, and you might not necessarily have a huge taxi squad a la the NFL or an 'alternate site' of players like baseball. The closest you have to that is the AHL but who knows how that turns out.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

That is not really a bubble per say. The bubbles they players dont want to do is a hub city for each division. Any plan that has players in a hotel without seeing their families for any stretch of time is off the table afaik

There is a compromise to be made here. We’re largely dealing with young families comprised of demographics that are at little-to-no risk. If venues (and, by extension, travel) are properly monitored pursuant to league protocol, there is no reason why players can’t quasi-bubble at home with their families.

It’ll take some tinkering to figure out a schedule that streamlines/minimizes travel, but this is workable.

The difference is that the spread in the population is much higher now. In July-August, the country was averaging around 60,000 new cases a day which fell to around 40,000/day by October 1. We're now at 150,000 cases/day and climbing - who knows where we will be in 2 weeks, post-Thanksgiving infections. Some of this increase is surely due to improved testing, but I suspect most of it is not.

At some point, survival rate has to matter. The case numbers certainly appear daunting, but less so when you insert context.

99.87% survival is pretty damn compelling. And if anyone disagrees, you should probably throw out your Purell—it leaves you vulnerable to 0.01% of germs!

I say that in jest, but not really. We’re dealing with a rampant, infectious virus. Cases are inevitable; spikes are inevitable. They will continue even with a vaccine. Cases cannot be the determinative metric for the league. If they are, we will be treading water for years.

 

[Triumph]

While I agree in principle I've been a naysayer for months on both baseball and football - especially football given they've made no tangible adjustments at all unlike baseball which shortened their schedule and shaved travel - and so far have been proven wrong. Now the NFL might be at least on DEFCON 2 with this Ravens situation but even that is only one game that in theory could be meaningless by Week 18.

Hockey's a little easier in the respect you can spread out games and (like baseball) lessen travel to a degree, but it's also harder in both timing like you said, and you might not necessarily have a huge taxi squad a la the NFL or an 'alternate site' of players like baseball. The closest you have to that is the AHL but who knows how that turns out.

A team just played a game without a quarterback. I agree that the NFL season is not a total disaster but teams are having positive tests every week, it seems.

At some point, survival rate has to matter. The case numbers certainly appear daunting, but less so when you insert context.

99.87% survival is pretty damn compelling. And if anyone disagrees, you should probably throw out your Purell—it leaves you vulnerable to 0.01% of germs!

I say that in jest, but not really. We’re dealing with a rampant, infectious virus. Cases are inevitable; spikes are inevitable. They will continue even with a vaccine. Cases cannot be the determinative metric for the league. If they are, we will be treading water for years.

I do not know where you are getting a 99.8% survival rate, but that survival rate has likely gone up not because of anything the virus or its victims are doing, but because better treatments have been discovered for this novel disease and because more people are being tested. Moreover, survival rate and case numbers are not the only two important numbers here - hospitalizations are also critical. Right now the health care system has been dealing with the virus for 9 months and appears at a breaking point in many places in the country and we've likely not hit the worst yet.

 

[MadDevil]

 

[JrFischer54]

Baseball made up every game other than an unnecessary doubleheader with the Cardinals they could have made up before the playoffs if the games mattered. Games were postponed, not canceled. Every league will have issues but so far the only one whose season is a total mess is college football.

playing 6 inning double headers to cram games in and having dh in both leagues and starting with a runner on 2nd in extra innings that’s a lot of radical changes to accommodate a “successful” season.

 

[Emperoreddy]

NFL is definitely treading disaster territory as they left themselves no schedule room despite the continued outbreaks.

 

[SpeakingOfTheDevils]

I do not know where you are getting a 99.8% survival rate, but that survival rate has likely gone up not because of anything the virus or its victims are doing, but because better treatments have been discovered for this novel disease and because more people are being tested.

The CDC. The report is about a month old, but it indicated a 0.00007 infection fatality rate (99.98% survival) for the 20-49 age demographic.

The 99.87% figure I cited factors in the variance coefficient indicated in the report. But, to your point, the survival rate may have improved since then—increased testing, improved treatment, etc.

Moreover, survival rate and case numbers are not the only two important numbers here - hospitalizations are also critical. Right now the health care system has been dealing with the virus for 9 months and appears at a breaking point in many places in the country and we've likely not hit the worst yet.

And fortunately, a vaccine will be available way ahead of schedule.

How many professional athletes have been hospitalized due to the virus?

Hospitalization risk has more to do with fan attendance IMO, which is an entirely different debate.

 

[njdevils1982]

playing 6 inning double headers to cram games in and having dh in both leagues and starting with a runner on 2nd in extra innings that’s a lot of radical changes to accommodate a “successful” season.

it was 7 innings of "let's play two" …

 

[Triumph]

The CDC. The report is about a month old, but it indicated a 0.00007 infection fatality rate (99.98% survival) for the 20-49 age demographic.

The 99.87% figure I cited factors in the variance coefficient indicated in the report. But, to your point, the survival rate may have improved since then—increased testing, improved treatment, etc.



And fortunately, a vaccine will be available way ahead of schedule.

How many professional athletes have been hospitalized due to the virus?

Hospitalization risk has more to do with fan attendance IMO, which is an entirely different debate.

You seem to think I am concerned about players being infected with the disease and I am not, not really, although there has been at least one athlete whose season was ended by COVID; this is rare. I am concerned about how COVID affects a season and the difficulty it causes. But as for people, I am more concerned about literally everyone else - whether it be coaches or support staff of NHL teams, or people working on planes and in hotels, and so on. The spread of the disease.