Armchair GM Thread

[token grinder]

Coming out of the break-

I would check in with New Jersey to see what they want for Sami Vatanen-A Right handed D man that can play 2nd pair and push Fabbro down to 3rd pair. I don't think he has played worthy of a 1st rounder, maybe even a 2nd rounder, but he is a good player and put Fabbro where we can shelter his minutes a little more.

I would also see what the price for Brendon Dillon of the Sharks and Mark Borowieki of the Senators. Lefthanded dmen that are more physical than anything we have. Obviously I sending Irwin and Weber out to pasture. Hamhuis can stay as the 7th as an act of nostalgia and goodwill. Weber I guess could have a use as an 8th if we want to carry that.

Then I see how we play over the next 10 games and see if I am moving Smith, Granlund, Watson or Grimaldi

 

[Predsanddead24]

. The "is Rinne done" comments go back to at least 2017 with those questions amplifying during the post season.

Anyone who was asking if Rinne is done in 2017 was way off base seeing as he carried us to the Finals in 16-17 (despite his collapse in Pittsburgh in the Finals) and won a Vezina in 17-18. The latter half of last season was really the first time it started to be a reasonable take to wonder if he was done, but even then he put up a pretty good season overall. Asking if Rinne had what it took to win a Cup would be reasonable those years given his propensity to have major collapses at inopportune times in the postseason. I wouldn't put any of that on a goaltending coach though as that seems to be something mental holding Pekka back and I don't think its reasonable to expect Vanderklok to be both a goalie coach and sports psychologist.

Whether he's the right coach for us at this moment I don't know. You could make the same argument as you could for firing Laviolette that while he may be a good coach that sometimes it's good to change coaches up and get a new perspective on a players problems. I'd imagine Vanderklok like the rest of our assistant coaching staff is probably on the hot seat depending on how the second half of this season goes though. The good news is that in the small sample size since Hynes took over our goaltending has looked a lot better. Probably in large part to the fact our team defense has been a whole lot better.

 

[101st_fan]

Anyone who was asking if Rinne is done in 2017 was way off base seeing as he carried us to the Finals in 16-17 (despite his collapse in Pittsburgh in the Finals) and won a Vezina in 17-18. The latter half of last season was really the first time it started to be a reasonable take to wonder if he was done, but even then he put up a pretty good season overall. Asking if Rinne had what it took to win a Cup would be reasonable those years given his propensity to have major collapses at inopportune times in the postseason. I wouldn't put any of that on a goaltending coach though as that seems to be something mental holding Pekka back and I don't think its reasonable to expect Vanderklok to be both a goalie coach and sports psychologist.

Whether he's the right coach for us at this moment I don't know. You could make the same argument as you could for firing Laviolette that while he may be a good coach that sometimes it's good to change coaches up and get a new perspective on a players problems. I'd imagine Vanderklok like the rest of our assistant coaching staff is probably on the hot seat depending on how the second half of this season goes though. The good news is that in the small sample size since Hynes took over our goaltending has looked a lot better. Probably in large part to the fact our team defense has been a whole lot better.

I never said it was logical but the questioning about Rinne has been around for a while now. A goalie coach has to be a psychologist ... it goes with working with a position that is renowned for being filled with head cases.

It goes to how often he's been pulled over the past several years, especially in critical series ... twice pulled in the SCF, three times against the Jets following his Vezina season, a mediocre Dec 18 and Jan 19 (on par with his overall numbers so far this season), another disappointing performance against Dallas to include another pull, then this season where he is doing well but not great at ES but near the bottom of the league on the kill (actually dead last in sv% among goalies with 50 minutes or more on the kill). He gave us a great regular season between the pipes in 17-18 but he's had some glaring issues over the past few years as well.

 

[GoldOnGold]

There was some criticism of Rinne during the 2015-2016 season as well when he put up a .908, the worst performance of his career barring this season and his injury season.

 

[BigFatCat999]

A situational look at Rinne and Saros.

5on5 stats for our goalies
Saros - .903sv%, 2.86gaa
Rinne - .923sv%, 2.28gaa

PK stats (all PK situations)
Saros - .852sv%, 7.09gaa
Rinne - .766sv%, 12.26gaa

Overall
Saros - .895sv%, 3.13gaa
Rinne - .899sv%, 2.95gaa

Just an idea, why not start Rinne and play Saros on PK?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I'll counter with it's not just one year. The rebound issues with Saros go to his initial callup. The "is Rinne done" comments go back to at least 2017 with those questions amplifying during the post season. We've seen people here saying Saros should surpass Rinne for a few years. Vanderklok doesn't appear to be a bad goalie coach but the question remains if he is the right goalie coach.

Are you suddenly going to apply your "From our limited vantage point as fans, maybe taking that as evidence seems circumstantial - but in reality, for the people who really matter within the team structure, highly experienced professionals in their own right - they have all the real evidence in plain sight to evaluate" to the coaches, forwards, etc and why the players you keep slamming here remain in their roles?

Do I slam any players or coaches? I don't feel like I do. But the thing is, we see them. We can see every minute the players play. And by extension of that, we have at least some clear ideas of how the coaches are utilizing them and the systems they appear to be attempting to play. So skaters: we see a lot and have ample evidence to critique. Bench coaches - it's hazier, but at least whatever systematic issues we do think we see we can generally lay at the feet of the head coach as being ultimately responsible. But the goalie coach is on another level of obscurity entirely.

I trust my eyes on the players above any general appeal to team authority. Main coaching staff it's more of a split decision. Goalie coach I'll finally, humbly, accede to the judgement of Poile/Korn/Rinne. (All of those are still just fan fallacies, of course... there is nobody on these boards who really has any clue. But we entertain ourselves by pretending that we do. There wouldn't be any boards or posts if we didn't.)

 

[glenngineer]

I don't think anybody today disagrees that it turned out to be a Bad Trade. That's spilt milk under the bridge, though. EVERYBODY thought Granlund would be a better player than he has been. Alas. Further proof that time travel isn't a thing.

Thought it was a bad trade at the time. Giving up a guy at 22 who was cost controlled for 5 years for a guy we'd have for a season and a quarter. Even if Fiala piddled around the same production he had with us, we would've had that for 5 years. As it stands now, we're going to lose Granlund to free agency because he's not worth signing at his current rate. He's not even worth what Fiala is getting now.

Everyone around here thinks we may be able to get a 2nd for Granlund, if that's the case, we basically gave up a former first in Fiala for 100ish or so games of Granlund to get a 2nd round pick. That's poor asset management.

And yes, while it's water under the bridge, not all of us were on board with the deal at the time because some of us thought we were getting older quicker and we'd have nothing to show for it after this year, which is exactly where this is heading right now.

 

[LeighDx59]

Coming out of the break-

I would check in with New Jersey to see what they want for Sami Vatanen-A Right handed D man that can play 2nd pair and push Fabbro down to 3rd pair. I don't think he has played worthy of a 1st rounder, maybe even a 2nd rounder, but he is a good player and put Fabbro where we can shelter his minutes a little more.

I would also see what the price for Brendon Dillon of the Sharks and Mark Borowieki of the Senators. Lefthanded dmen that are more physical than anything we have. Obviously I sending Irwin and Weber out to pasture. Hamhuis can stay as the 7th as an act of nostalgia and goodwill. Weber I guess could have a use as an 8th if we want to carry that.

Then I see how we play over the next 10 games and see if I am moving Smith, Granlund, Watson or Grimaldi

You could also see what the price of Mike Green is from Detroit. Right handed shot, would be a solid second pairing defensman with Ekholm, pushes Fabbro down the lineup and gives the Preds more solid depth defensively. I know he hasnt played amazing this year, but on a good team he would be solid. Not sure what the price would be, but I cant imagine it'd be higher than a 2nd and maybe Weber or Irwin for 50% retained.

 

[Armourboy]

Thought it was a bad trade at the time. Giving up a guy at 22 who was cost controlled for 5 years for a guy we'd have for a season and a quarter. Even if Fiala piddled around the same production he had with us, we would've had that for 5 years. As it stands now, we're going to lose Granlund to free agency because he's not worth signing at his current rate. He's not even worth what Fiala is getting now.

Everyone around here thinks we may be able to get a 2nd for Granlund, if that's the case, we basically gave up a former first in Fiala for 100ish or so games of Granlund to get a 2nd round pick. That's poor asset management.

And yes, while it's water under the bridge, not all of us were on board with the deal at the time because some of us thought we were getting older quicker and we'd have nothing to show for it after this year, which is exactly where this is heading right now.

Yep didn't much like it at the time either and stated as much here and on the main boards.

I also did a ton of speculating about why it was done.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

you can go down the list on the big trades poile has made and while they looked decent at the time, end result is what matters.

johansen for Jones - big L. massive L . yes we've discussed 100s of times why it was the right move but in current time, it was an awful trade.

Turris trade - just as awful. We couldn't even dump him in the summer

PK for Weber - looks to be horrible as well. no one predicted PKs fall but it's still horrible. small save for getting out from PKs contract

Fiala for granlund - just on the amount of years of team control we had fiala for and age, that makes it also a pretty bad trade.

poile should be the next to go

 

[Soundgarden]

you can go down the list on the big trades poile has made and while they looked decent at the time, end result is what matters.

johansen for Jones - big L. massive L . yes we've discussed 100s of times why it was the right move but in current time, it was an awful trade.

Turris trade - just as awful. We couldn't even dump him in the summer

PK for Weber - looks to be horrible as well. no one predicted PKs fall but it's still horrible. small save for getting out from PKs contract

Fiala for granlund - just on the amount of years of team control we had fiala for and age, that makes it also a pretty bad trade.

poile should be the next to go

Can you blame Poile on Turris being injured three times last year? Can you blame Poile for PK's play falling off a cliff at 29? Can you blame Poile for Granlund going from a consistent 60+ point player to a 30 point AHLer at just 27?

The end result is what matters, I just don't think you can blame Poile for acquiring players who would go on to get injured or decline 1-3 years after the trade.

1. Johansen deal was always going to be bad, you're right, we've discussed it 100 times.

2. Turris trade is not just as awful as the Jones deal. What would Girard be doing here? We sold high on him and Kamenev and we were right to do it. Turris' contract is where Poile messed up, he should not have signed him for that long at that term.

3. I don't know how anyone can call the Weber-Subban deal a bad trade on our part, especially when Poile moved on from Subban as he was declining. We would probably never have done the things we did with Subban if Weber were still on the team during that time.

4. Just because we would have had more years of Fiala for cheap does not mean we should have kept him. He's pretty much in the same position in Minnesota that he was here. He's sixth in scoring for a team that's just as bad as we are and for a goal scorer he only has one more goal than Granlund does. It's not like he's elevated his game and turned Minnesota into a contender.
He was a one dimensional scorer who constantly turned over the puck and had attitude issues that came to a head when he fought with Arvidsson in practice.

This might be the deal that pisses me off most when people bring it up in reference to how old man Poile has lost his mind. Every single GM in the league trades a struggling tweener with attitude problems for a legitimate top 6 winger. You have to take that risk.

Johansen is lazy, Turris is lazy, injured and was benched, Subban declined but was traded, and Granlund fell off a cliff out of nowhere. I get why people are calling for Poile's head when 3 of these deals turned out to be awful, but I'm glad he at least tried to go for it.

 

[glenngineer]

Can you blame Poile on Turris being injured three times last year? Can you blame Poile for PK's play falling off a cliff at 29? Can you blame Poile for Granlund going from a consistent 60+ point player to a 30 point AHLer at just 27?

The end result is what matters, I just don't think you can blame Poile for acquiring players who would go on to get injured or decline 1-3 years after the trade.

1. Johansen deal was always going to be bad, you're right, we've discussed it 100 times.

2. Turris trade is not just as awful as the Jones deal. What would Girard be doing here? We sold high on him and Kamenev and we were right to do it. Turris' contract is where Poile messed up, he should not have signed him for that long at that term.

3. I don't know how anyone can call the Weber-Subban deal a bad trade on our part, especially when Poile moved on from Subban as he was declining. We would probably never have done the things we did with Subban if Weber were still on the team during that time.

4. Just because we would have had more years of Fiala for cheap does not mean we should have kept him. He's pretty much in the same position in Minnesota that he was here. He's sixth in scoring for a team that's just as bad as we are and for a goal scorer he only has one more goal than Granlund does. It's not like he's elevated his game and turned Minnesota into a contender.
He was a one dimensional scorer who constantly turned over the puck and had attitude issues that came to a head when he fought with Arvidsson in practice.

This might be the deal that pisses me off most when people bring it up in reference to how old man Poile has lost his mind. Every single GM in the league trades a struggling tweener with attitude problems for a legitimate top 6 winger. You have to take that risk.

Johansen is lazy, Turris is lazy, injured and was benched, Subban declined but was traded, and Granlund fell off a cliff out of nowhere. I get why people are calling for Poile's head when 3 of these deals turned out to be awful, but I'm glad he at least tried to go for it.

By this logic, one of Toews or Keith would have attitude issues yet they've both won 3 Cups together.

Sometimes guys are in a mood and go at it in practice, this does not mean they have an attitude problem.

 

[Byrddog]

Can you blame Poile on Turris being injured three times last year? Can you blame Poile for PK's play falling off a cliff at 29? Can you blame Poile for Granlund going from a consistent 60+ point player to a 30 point AHLer at just 27?

The end result is what matters, I just don't think you can blame Poile for acquiring players who would go on to get injured or decline 1-3 years after the trade.

1. Johansen deal was always going to be bad, you're right, we've discussed it 100 times.

2. Turris trade is not just as awful as the Jones deal. What would Girard be doing here? We sold high on him and Kamenev and we were right to do it. Turris' contract is where Poile messed up, he should not have signed him for that long at that term.

3. I don't know how anyone can call the Weber-Subban deal a bad trade on our part, especially when Poile moved on from Subban as he was declining. We would probably never have done the things we did with Subban if Weber were still on the team during that time.

4. Just because we would have had more years of Fiala for cheap does not mean we should have kept him. He's pretty much in the same position in Minnesota that he was here. He's sixth in scoring for a team that's just as bad as we are and for a goal scorer he only has one more goal than Granlund does. It's not like he's elevated his game and turned Minnesota into a contender.
He was a one dimensional scorer who constantly turned over the puck and had attitude issues that came to a head when he fought with Arvidsson in practice.

This might be the deal that pisses me off most when people bring it up in reference to how old man Poile has lost his mind. Every single GM in the league trades a struggling tweener with attitude problems for a legitimate top 6 winger. You have to take that risk.

Johansen is lazy, Turris is lazy, injured and was benched, Subban declined but was traded, and Granlund fell off a cliff out of nowhere. I get why people are calling for Poile's head when 3 of these deals turned out to be awful, but I'm glad he at least tried to go for it.

You hit the nail on the head. The one player we really miss in all these trades is Girard he would have taken the same amount of time to adjust here however. He has really came on this season and is a big reason that Colorado has taken another step forward. In the 6 or so Wild games I have caught Fiala is no different there than he was here. He is still making passes to nowhere passes thru middle ice in the defensive zone gets knocked on his ass just as much is useless along the boards. Yeah yeah he will be around 20 goals and 40 points. Turris has one less goal than Fiala, Rocco has one less goal and more asst's in fact there are 10 players on the Preds that are going to have more points than Fiala this year.

Poile did what any GM would do adding the guys in there peak years but it has not worked out. This was really his last best chance. He now has to make the decision of how to rebuild this team. Unless he can land a starting goalie to platoon with Pekka next year he will need to start selling off and rebuild younger where they all hit stride in there prime years. It will be painful to do this but this the best draft year since 03 most say. If he could manage to add another 1st somehow and a couple 2nds then make the right choices the future could start to look bright again. Like most every draft there are going to be a few players NHL off the bat this year it could well be 5 or 6 compared to the usual 3. But it looks like there are a large number who could be ready in as little as one more year. This gives opportunity to build a team fore a decade of success opposed to patching the team now and chasing the wildcard year after year. There will be failures from the draft for sure historically only 48% of 1st and 2nd rounders ever play 200 games in the league. But in a good draft year some teams catch lightning in a bottle. In 2003 Poile got Suter, Weber, Klein, and another 5 duds. That year there were more than 40 players that played more than 200 games and over 20 were playing in 2018. That class is now retiring but they made their mark. Polie now has a first two seconds and two thirds. He also could pick up a couple more 2nds and maybe a first before the deadline. If this draft is as good as promoted now is the time.

 

[PredsV82]

Hindsight is 20/20. We are still "winning" the Weber for PK trade and it will be an even bigger win if any of these picks or prospects pan out. But man oh man looking back how amazing would it have been to have got Draisaitl for either Weber or Jones?

 

[Soundgarden]

By this logic, one of Toews or Keith would have attitude issues yet they've both won 3 Cups together.

Sometimes guys are in a mood and go at it in practice, this does not mean they have an attitude problem.

I'm not saying that he had attitude issues because of the fight, but that his attitude issues culminated in fighting a teammate in practice. There were rumors of his attitude when he got sent down to Milwaukee before that happened.

 

[OldFan]

Hindsight is 20/20. We are still "winning" the Weber for PK trade and it will be an even bigger win if any of these picks or prospects pan out. But man oh man looking back how amazing would it have been to have got Draisaitl for either Weber or Jones?

Winning the deal in terms of follow on trades. PK was fun to have around for awhile but Shea was and is a better Dman and leader. PK’s Norris was Canadian media generated. Shea is what everyone wants in a Dman; big, tough(even mean if he wants to be), offensively productive and smart. Wish he was still a Pred and Captain(no reflection on Josi intended).
Of course, it’s opinion only but I suspect if he were still here Preds would be in a playoff spot minimum.
Forwards still avoid his side if the ice and there is no stat for that and he could clear the front of the net.
His boomer could solve the PP problem.
Really a solid guy; we all thought he got too slow but the NHL has drifted back a ways from this all out strictly offense and good Ds are coveted.

 

[Predsanddead24]

As far as the maturity issues for Fiala goes he definitely had issues early on when he first went pro, but his coaches said he matured a lot in the time between then. See this quote from Dean Evanson after his trade:

“What I’ve seen personally is how mature Kevin Fiala is,” said Evason, formerly the head coach of the Predators’ top minor league affiliate in Milwaukee. “You look back, I think he was 19 when he first came to us in Milwaukee. He was a kid. He is a mature human being now. He’s really grown up, and I’m saying that off the ice obviously, but his maturity on the ice has been very impressive for me. His teammates clearly appreciate his skill level, but he’s a real, real good teammate and wants to succeed, wants to win as much as he wants to score goals. I think that’s a huge feather (in his cap) for him, how far he’s come in all areas of his maturity on and off the ice."

I put a lot more weight into what a coach has to say about him then random rumors. And the "fight" between him and Arvidsson is blown out of proportion given the original report of it called it a bearhug between the two and not a fight. Given what was going on that season and how bad our special teams was and continues to be I kind of wish more of our guys would show some passion like that.

The trade is what it is and no one could have predicted Granlund would play so badly for us, but trying to justify it by throwing Fiala under the bus has always seemed silly to me. Like him or not the guy is on pace for a 50+ point season and has more points than any forward on our team outside of Forsberg and Duchene.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I mean, we're going to go down as losers on all those trades in the history books. But I understand exactly why Poile made each one, and appreciate that at least he was boldly trying to address team needs and bring the team closer to a championship. RyJo and Turris - we were SOOOO desperate for centers and so loaded on D, and there's no way he could have predicted he'd ever get another shot at Duchene. The way Weber finished and the way Subban started here... Poile was winning that trade very comfortably for two years... until Subban mysteriously imploded, also totally unpredictable. Same for Granlund... he thought he was getting a prime-aged 1st-line forward who would be a key cog in our Cup runs for at least 2 years --- maybe more if we were able to re-sign him.

I still give him credit for making all of those moves. If we don't take the next step, it won't be because Poile wasn't trying. There aren't a lot of Big Trades in the NHL anymore. He has made more than his fair share. Going 0-for-4 sucks, but that's the thing with this game. It takes some luck too, and that definitely wasn't on our side. But we're still not exactly crippled by it or anything. Maybe we're not a contender any more, but the team isn't in some kind of absolute shambles. If you took something like a tanking/rebuilding approach and got similar bad luck you'd be looking at 10 years of total disaster.

 

[GeauxPreds1]

The only trade Poile has made in the last 5 years that I was upset with was giving up a 1st for Hartman. That was a dumb trade. I said it then and I still say it to this day. Every other trade Johansen, Turris, Pk and Granlund I was happy with. I didn’t wanna lose fiala and was really hoping we would keep him but watching Granlund for many years I knew we was getting a good one. Who knows what happened with all these players maybe the system or chemistry but when we got them I was excited to have them on my team.
I’m giving this team 15 more games to show some kind of life before I look at this season as a total loss. I believe if we can get some things figured out we can turn this shop around and possibly do some damage in the post season. We have a pretty deep team and if they can start playing up the standards they’re capable of we could be dangerous

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The only trade Poile has made in the last 5 years that I was upset with was giving up a 1st for Hartman. That was a dumb trade. I said it then and I still say it to this day. Every other trade Johansen, Turris, Pk and Granlund I was happy with. I didn’t wanna lose fiala and was really hoping we would keep him but watching Granlund for many years I knew we was getting a good one. Who knows what happened with all these players maybe the system or chemistry but when we got them I was excited to have them on my team.
I’m giving this team 15 more games to show some kind of life before I look at this season as a total loss. I believe if we can get some things figured out we can turn this shop around and possibly do some damage in the post season. We have a pretty deep team and if they can start playing up the standards they’re capable of we could be dangerous

Bang on. Not sure what the thinking was on the Hartman deal especially given how they subsequently marginalized him in the lineup. Good thing Ejdsell never really worked out either - which seemed to make it even worse at the time. That and going back to the Santorelli/Franson long before it are the only ones of any note whatsoever that were truly unjustifiable busts.

 

[Armourboy]

I'll have a hard time ever being convinced we lost on the Subban/Weber trade. Weber has basically done nothing but be injured until this season. We don't make the cup run without it and probably don't win the Presidents Trophy either.

Yeah Subban fell off a cliff, but if not for injuries I'm convinced we win the Cup that year and then Poile is applauded for both that trade and the Jones/Joey trade no matter what happens after.

The only two trades I didn't like was the Hartman trade and the Granlund trade, and I disliked those from the start.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'll have a hard time ever being convinced we lost on the Subban/Weber trade. Weber has basically done nothing but be injured until this season. We don't make the cup run without it and probably don't win the Presidents Trophy either.

The way that the general sentiment on the Subban/Weber trade has changed in the last season really amuses me. Who knows what happens in an alternate world where we keep Weber, but what we do know is that we had about as good of a three year stretch as we could have without winning a Cup while Subban was here. The other thing we know is that despite the mythic discussion of his leadership abilities we never made it past the second round with Weber, and that his last game for us was a Game 7 where he was likely the worst player on the ice for us. That's not to say that Weber isn't a great player overall, but I do find the pining after him a bit funny. I'm with you that I don't think I'll ever consider that trade a loss provided we don't get burned by cap recapture or the Canadiens go on to win several Cups, but I think both those scenarios are pretty unlikely.

 

[predwings]

So At what point do you start sitting veterans that aren’t producing and let young guys have their chances?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

So At what point do you start sitting veterans that aren’t producing and let young guys have their chances?

About two months ago....

 

[Armourboy]

Unload all of the UFA's and bring the kids up. At least we would have an excuse to suck then.