Armchair GM Thread

[originalpredfan]

My take on Forsberg is that I'm mostly OK with his offensive zone play, but I really wish he would just play it safe in the defensive end. He just needs to realize it's more important to get the puck out of our end and not try to make our zone the begging of a spectacular offensive play.

 

[Armourboy]

Forsberg has always had the same issue, when he plays off his teammates and puts himself into a scoring position he is deadly, but he falls into a rut of trying to do it all on his own and it gets him in trouble. I think him more than just about anyone tuned Lavi out.

You trade Granlund, Smith, and anyone else that will be a Ufa, and dump Turris as long as the cost is reasonable. The cap space is better utilized on a winger.

Also Saros has been figured out but it's not his size, he has zilch for rebound control so teams are just shooting hard and driving him hard.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I would expect a weird trade like Smith and Granlund for Patrick Kane. Not gonna happen but I'm expecting insanity

 

[weeze]

I have seen some things like we are interested in Athanasiou? I also see that Toffoli might be available for a 2nd and prospect. Should we be interested in either? What about JG Pageau or Hoffman? I don't think we need any Centers...but
Athanasiou is big at 6'2" and plays LW, 25yo, $3M RFA.
Toffoli is 6'0" plays RW, 27yo, $4.6M UFA.
Pageau is 5'10" plays C, 27yo, $3.1M RFA
Hoffman is 6'0" plays C/LW, 30yo, $5.2 UFA.

Should we be interested in any of these players? All are off contract this summer. I like the size of all except for Pageau. We could use a little more size up front. I also think Toffoli and Hoffman play with more grit as well. Not liking Hoffman's $ and age though.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I have seen some things like we are interested in Athanasiou? I also see that Toffoli might be available for a 2nd and prospect. Should we be interested in either? What about JG Pageau or Hoffman? I don't think we need any Centers...but
Athanasiou is big at 6'2" and plays LW, 25yo, $3M RFA.
Toffoli is 6'0" plays RW, 27yo, $4.6M UFA.
Pageau is 5'10" plays C, 27yo, $3.1M RFA
Hoffman is 6'0" plays C/LW, 30yo, $5.2 UFA.

Should we be interested in any of these players? All are off contract this summer. I like the size of all except for Pageau. We could use a little more size up front. I also think Toffoli and Hoffman play with more grit as well. Not liking Hoffman's $ and age though.

I'm not inclined to be a "buyer" even if Hynes does get them back on track. This time, let them enter the playoffs as the cohesive unit that went on a 24-13-3 run to make the playoffs as wildcard underdogs, no further additions needed.

Keep the picks and continue the process of re-stocking the farm. Milwaukee is having a great season, and we've had some bright stories of prospect progress from the last draft already. But we still had nobody playing at the WJC. There's still a ways to go before we climb out of the bottom third of the NHL in terms of prospect depth. So no buying this year, not at the top end anyway... spend a pick 4th round or later to shore up D, I wouldn't complain. But no need to chase anything pricier.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'm not inclined to be a "buyer" even if Hynes does get them back on track. This time, let them enter the playoffs as the cohesive unit that went on a 24-13-3 run to make the playoffs as wildcard underdogs, no further additions needed.

Keep the picks and continue the process of re-stocking the farm. Milwaukee is having a great season, and we've had some bright stories of prospect progress from the last draft already. But we still had nobody playing at the WJC. There's still a ways to go before we climb out of the bottom third of the NHL in terms of prospect depth. So no buying this year, not at the top end anyway... spend a pick 4th round or later to shore up D, I wouldn't complain. But no need to chase anything pricier.

I'd be good if we're never a major buyer at the trade deadline again. Rarely are the teams that win the Cup major buyers at the deadline. Filling any small voids you need such as bottom pair D for us this year is all I really find necessary.

 

[drwpreds]

I'm not inclined to be a "buyer" even if Hynes does get them back on track. This time, let them enter the playoffs as the cohesive unit that went on a 24-13-3 run to make the playoffs as wildcard underdogs, no further additions needed.

Keep the picks and continue the process of re-stocking the farm. Milwaukee is having a great season, and we've had some bright stories of prospect progress from the last draft already. But we still had nobody playing at the WJC. There's still a ways to go before we climb out of the bottom third of the NHL in terms of prospect depth. So no buying this year, not at the top end anyway... spend a pick 4th round or later to shore up D, I wouldn't complain. But no need to chase anything pricier.

Agree with all of that, but I would not mind it at all if we somehow wound up with Athanasiou

 

[weeze]

I'm not inclined to be a "buyer" even if Hynes does get them back on track. This time, let them enter the playoffs as the cohesive unit that went on a 24-13-3 run to make the playoffs as wildcard underdogs, no further additions needed.

Keep the picks and continue the process of re-stocking the farm. Milwaukee is having a great season, and we've had some bright stories of prospect progress from the last draft already. But we still had nobody playing at the WJC. There's still a ways to go before we climb out of the bottom third of the NHL in terms of prospect depth. So no buying this year, not at the top end anyway... spend a pick 4th round or later to shore up D, I wouldn't complain. But no need to chase anything pricier.

Ok I hear you. Then do we sell off a few pieces even if we make the WC2 slot or better? It is a given we sell if we don't make the playoffs. It seems the names I hear the players we will sell the most are Granlund, Smith, Turris and maybe Bonino. I have always likes Smith, but ever since he missed that open net several years ago he just does not seem the same. Plays with fire and a reckless abandon. Wish others played as hard as him.

 

[LeighDx59]

Were in a tough spot.

In a perfect world, any trades we would need to make should be made now, that way the players have much more time to ease into the system and city . However, considering our place in the standings, it wouldnt be a great move to trade for anyone or trade anyone away. It would have to be a judgement call by the TDL on whether we sell some players off, or acquire some.

If we are looking to acquire pieces, it would obviously depend on the price. As a Detroit fan, Mike Green and Andreas Athanasiou would be interesting options, Green specifically. With Ellis out, and our bottom pairing being okay at best, having Green come it and solidify the top four would be great, Fabbro would get pumped down to the bottom pairing and things would get better with our defensive depth. AA would be interesting third line option, especially with his speed. A change of scenery could benefit him as well. Again, it would come down to price and honestly, if this season is lost we could always shoot for Green in free agency if Detroit doesnt sign him again.

If were selling, move out most of the expiring contracts. If Smith's price tag is too high then you move him to the highest bidder, Granlund too because unless turns around I dont think they bring him back next season. Defensively, if anyone is interested in Weber, Irwin or Hamhuis, you move them for whatever you can get. Let some defensmen from Milwaukee finish out the year and see what you have. You could do the same with Smith or Granlunds spot upfront, potentially more if they move Turris too.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Ok I hear you. Then do we sell off a few pieces even if we make the WC2 slot or better? It is a given we sell if we don't make the playoffs. It seems the names I hear the players we will sell the most are Granlund, Smith, Turris and maybe Bonino. I have always likes Smith, but ever since he missed that open net several years ago he just does not seem the same. Plays with fire and a reckless abandon. Wish others played as hard as him.

I think we're in a holding pattern right now. Until we get a better sense of the way things are going with the coaching change, we can't really decide on all of them. We have 16 games before the deadline. We need to go at approximately a 23-13-3 clip to make the playoffs. So it's possible we won't have total clarity even by the deadline. For sure we need to be over .500 in the rest of the games heading up to the deadline anyway.

Smith - I'd offer him a contract extension either way first. Right now, say. 4x$4M. Then at least we'll know where we stand with him. Come the deadline, if the playoffs aren't looking good and he's not ready to re-sign, trade him. If the playoffs are still looking realistically possible, keep him. Either way, look at signing him again in the summer too. Just depends on the terms, but he's a player I'd have back in the lineup if possible.

Granlund - I don't completely rule out some miracle rebirth for him under Hynes. But assuming that doesn't happen, I'd look to trade him either way. Trenin can take his spot just fine. Granlund hasn't shown us that he can make a difference - either in making the playoffs, or in doing anything once we get there. If we can get at least a 2nd round for him, I'd move him.

Bonino - I wouldn't trade him either way. He's doing great, and still under contract for next year. Trading him can be next year's dilemma. I mean, if we were trending to missing the playoffs AND some team offered us a 1st - it would definitely make me think. But even then, unless it's a 1st from a team that might miss the playoffs, I don't think I'd bite.

Turris - In his case I think we have to take any positive value return anytime we can get it. I'm not expecting to get it. But if we can ever move him and not take any cap hit back past this season, we should do it. Like Granlund, I don't think he really moves the needle for us competitively. He's a decent player and gives us a little injury insurance. But the long view still says we have 4 other centers better-suited to their roles than Turris would be in any of those spots. So it only makes sense to move him if the opportunity ever comes up. We can afford to wait indefinitely on that, however. No desperation.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Do people think we would actually get a good return for Johansen? With how terribly he's doing, not sure many would even want him.

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

Do people think we would actually get a good return for Johansen? With how terribly he's doing, not sure many would even want him.

This is completely true and people have already brought his lackluster stats for a #1 center up whenever his deal is talked about. He's not a negative asset, but he might be as close to one as a guy paid like him can, especially when he's the guy going to someone who is paying.

 

[LCPreds]

Do people think we would actually get a good return for Johansen? With how terribly he's doing, not sure many would even want him.

I think he would be an easy move at the deadline as a rental. He tends to be pretty good in the playoffs and that's what teams should be looking to buy, right? I'm just not sure if him being signed to a long contract suppresses his value or potentially enhances it.

 

[triggrman]

Why would we give Poile more rope?

 

[Predsanddead24]

I'm still torn on what this teams long term plan should be and whether its worth making major changes going into next season. Maybe I'm delusional, but I'm still willing to wait and see if Hynes can manage to turn the ship around. As I mentioned elsewhere the successful midseason coaching changes of the past all took about 15-20 games before things started to improve. Unfortunately this season may be already gone at that point even if things do improve down the stretch, but I think its worth letting it play out with most of the roster in tact. Obviously shop Granlund and see if someone gives you an offer you can't refuse on anyone else, but I don't think we're going to get much at the trade deadline for anyone anyways. If you can get a first or A prospects for the likes of Smith or Bonino I'd probably make that move, but late 2nds, midround picks, and B/C prospects don't really excite me all that much. The precedent isn't really there to expect any guys signed longterm to get moved at the trade deadline so I doubt that happens, but I guess it's not impossible. Again I'd listen but unless you get some deal you can't pass up I'm still in wait and see mode.

In the offseason though you have a lot of ways you can go depending on how the season ends. I still think Johansen has a fair bit of trade value even considering his contract. If he were to hit UFA this offseason I think a lot of teams would be willing to offer him a 5 year/$8 mil AAV deal especially since it doesn't have any trade protections. The UFA center market is especially weak this year (basically on Pageau) I think we could drive up some demand. Ekholm is also a guy I'd seriously look at moving. I know it seems silly to suggest moving him since he's our best defensive D-man, but he's easily the most movable piece contract wise (beyond Fabbro who should be unmovable) and will carry the most value. I'd look to move Johansen and Ekholm for a combined return of a Top 6 LW, a physical middle pairing LD, and a physical bottom pairing D plus some picks and prospects. I'd try and re-sign Grimaldi and Smith too if you can get them on reasonable deals. At that point you've pulled off a major shakeup to the roster and filled some of the issues with our lineup. Enter next season with a lineup of:

Forsberg-Duchene-Arvidsson
New LW-Turris-Trenin/Other AHL Guy
Grimaldi-Bonino-Smith
Some AHL Guy-Sissons-Watson

Josi-Fabbro
New LD-Ellis
Carrier-New D

 

[LCPreds]

My only problem with that plan is I have no faith in a FF9 / Duchene /Arvy line.

Pretty jaded right now so I honestly don't have much faith in anything Preds related at the moment.

 

[Scoresberg]

I think you don't organize a fire sale this summer, for sure move some pieces but we'll be losing somebody in the expansion draft anyways so that will take care of one thing.

I would keep the top-4 intact and bring in some fresh blood starting this year, Carrier etc. Bring in some veteran D-man to round out the seven man unit.

Trade Granlund, he just hasn't gotten it done here and I don't think he will figure it out. I think you could still get a 2nd for him.

I wouldn't mind re-signing Smith if the deal's there. 3-4 years, with $4-5 M AAV. Dude brings it every night and has shown that he can produce in the bottom-6. Also, look for a deal with Grimaldi, he's been a really nice addition to the bottom-6 and would come pretty cheap.

Trade Turris in the summer. It may take some draft picks to unload his deal but so be it. Move the draft pick you acquire from the Granlund trade, so it evens out.

Trading Johansen isn't going to happen at least not yet. Also, Jarnkrok isn't a permanent solution in the top-6. You could trade someone from the bottom-6 to make room for new, hungrier guys.

Forsberg - Duchene - Smith
Pitlick/Tolvanen/X - Johansen - Arvidsson
Trenin - Bonino - Grimaldi
Jarnkrok - Sissons - Watson
Blackwell

Josi - Ellis
Ekholm - Fabbro
Veteran - Carrier
X, Tinordi

So, you'd need a middle-6 forward we could always trade for one, we have a good amount of draft picks. The solution could come inside the house as well. I wouldn't go the UFA route, it just doesn't seem to work very well. Also, sign a cheap veteran defenseman to help out Carrier.

 

[Byrddog]

Looks like the general conciseness here is to do a Poile and just tweek the roster. While ignoring the elephant in the room. I assure you Poile will address the goaltending at some point soon. If it is Ingram there little doubt he will call him up and send Sarro's down. I know some are going to scream about waviers on him, well the chance someone picks him up is pretty thin right now a guy with 19 starts and only 6 wins is not attractive. Even if his is picked up what is the loss? He has just 44 wins in 102 appearances. Now Poile could trade him for a 6th or 7th perhaps but he has to go. If I were betting I would say Pekka will retire after the season as well he has made just over 60 mil in his career so walking away with dignity may well be his choice. The goaltending is and has been the single biggest issue for some time. Before that hip surgery Pekka was on track to be a 40 game winner threat every year. He has accomplished that goal 3 times tying him for 5th all time once before the injury and twice afterward including the Cup final year. His next best year was a 34 game season in 15-16. Without that injury he could have made a run at Brodeur's 8 seasons with 40 wins. In 2012 he went out late in the season with 43 wins just 5 short of the record of 48 wins in the season. That year he was going to win his first Veznia as well. He missed the remainder of that year and a good hunk of then next two years. The next year he had 41 wins but only played 64 games. And has not played more than 66 since. Now conventional thinking now is to not allow a goalie to play 70 games but Rinne was one who could prior to injury, In fact most of the old heads here remember us talking about the more work he got the better he played. His stats now look like a decent back-up winning just over 50% of his games this year. So the combination of tenders is where the biggest issue for this team is.

Of course there are underperforming forwards but unless you can keep the puck out of your own net you can not score enough night in night out to overcome. Sitting at 3.34 gpg this should be enough to get this team into the playoffs but with the goal dif at just +1 that will not be good enough.

So at the crossroad unless a true starter appears nothing is going to change. The question is now wait on Ingram two more years at least until he is ready. Find a aging starter to platoon with Ingram. Ignore the issue ride Rinne and Sarros another year. Reguardless there are three expiring contracts that should be moved before the trade deadline. Then you make decisions on Turris, Forsberg, Duchene, Johansen it is not practical to think you could move all four contracts and without retention the only one fesible to move would be Forsberg. Now what return would you get?

The alternative would be to write the year off as an abomination that will not recur. I doubt that will float the sports dollar in Nashville now that the football team is winning again after a decade or so will factor in. The owners will not want to ride this out too long and still have to rebuild the team. If the team loses money one year they will burn it to the ground. $$$$$$$ is their only concern.

 

[Scoresberg]

For the above, we're 16th in save % at 5-on-5. So, just about average. It's not just goaltending that's sinking us, while it's been worse than previous years.

This team biggest problem is the special teams play, and it's not even close really.

 

[PredsV82]

Pekka will not retire after this year unless it comes out that hes been playing with a medical condition that cant be fixed.

Otherwise I think he honors his contract and tries to recover and have one last decent season.

 

[PredsV82]

For the above, we're 16th in save % at 5-on-5. So, just about average. It's not just goaltending that's sinking us, while it's been worse than previous years.

This team biggest problem is the special teams play, and it's not even close really.

See, quoting a stat like that is useless without context and lets you obscure the problem. I dont know what our 5 on 5 goaltending has been in previous seasons but I suspect it was better than middle of the road. In the past when we were an offensively challenged team we depended on top tier goaltending to be a competitor. And the problem with the PK is at least in some part the goaltending. Pekkas stats on the PK are abysmal. And its chicken vs egg as to why our PK is so bad but I'd say a significant difference between this year and our previous good PK years is goaltending.

More than anything this year is exposing just how much we have leaned on Pekka in years past.

 

[Pr0fet]

1. Trade Joey and Ellis to CBJ for Seth Jones and their first
2. Trade Bonino to Buffalo for their 1st
3. Trade Smith to Edmonton for their 1st
4. Trade Saros for a 1st-2nd
5. Trade Granlund for a 2nd
6. Trade Josi (BOOM!) to Florida for Ekblad
7. Watch BUF and CBJ drop during the spring turning their picks into #1 and #5
8. NSH 1st ends up as a top 10
9. Draft Lafreniere, Holtz and Askarov with the BUF, CBJ and NSH 1sts and whoever with EDMs 1st
10. Sign Gustafsson as an UFA in the summer
11. Sign Hall as an UFA in the summer
12. Sign Lehner or Holtby as a UFA in the summer
13. Pay Mitch Korn the moon to come back
14. Pay Rinne under the table to fake a jersey material allergy and set him on LTIR
15. Sign me as a GM/Head Coach

Hall - Duchene - Arvy
Forsberg - Turris - Holtz
Trenin - Lafreniere - Grimaldi
Watson - Sissons - Järnkrok

Jones - Ekblad
Ekholm - Gustafsson
Hamhuis - Fabbro

Lehner
Askarov

Easy peasy

 

[Byrddog]

See, quoting a stat like that is useless without context and lets you obscure the problem. I dont know what our 5 on 5 goaltending has been in previous seasons but I suspect it was better than middle of the road. In the past when we were an offensively challenged team we depended on top tier goaltending to be a competitor. And the problem with the PK is at least in some part the goaltending. Pekkas stats on the PK are abysmal. And its chicken vs egg as to why our PK is so bad but I'd say a significant difference between this year and our previous good PK years is goaltending.

More than anything this year is exposing just how much we have leaned on Pekka in years past.

100% accurate The Preds have relied on goaltending since the team was formed. The few occasions when the tending was average the team faltered. Ellis, Mason Lindy years. Vokoun and Rinne have been the backbone to the team and to some extent Dunham.

Most here just dismiss goaltending because the extended time of having a top 5 goalie in the league. And yes the PK has been horrid allowing 10 more goals than the league average. If they were average it may have equaled 4 more total points they have allowed 5 shorties as well so maybe a point there. They have given up 7 short handed attempt and 5 were put in the net. Combine all of that with 16th in save % its not a great leap to find its more a tending issue than any other excuse. Pekka is 61st in save% this season last year he was 20th the previous year 15th.

As to Pekka honoring his contract you are probably right but I hate to see him going out like this. His steady decline does not indicate a bounceback year. He has earned the right to be the starter until the end but it is ugly now and will be even worse next year. LUONGO retired with 3 years left on contract and I am just hoping Pekka will do the same.

 

[PredsV82]

To be fair Luongos contract had him playing until he was 43. If hes physically able, Peks will play next year

 

[Scoresberg]

The team has been just as bad on the PK as the goalies behind it.