Armchair GM Thread

[Predsanddead24]

Thought it might be nice to consolidate the discussion about potential trades, contract extensions, etc. to its own thread so here it is.

Click to read more...

 

[Predsanddead24]

Went through and looked a bit more in depth at out cap situation for next season and thought I would share. Here is what the situation is if you assume we let Grimaldi, Salomaki, Hamhuis, Weber, Irwin, and one of Granlund or Smith leave:

Forsberg-Duchene-(Granlund/Smith)
Tolvanen-Johansen-Arvidsson
Jarnkrok-Turris-Pitlick
(Watson)-Bonino-Sissons

(Josi)-Ellis
Ekholm-Fabbro
Davies-Allard

Reserves: Trenin, Carrier

If you assume a cap increase of $2 million like last season that would leave you with $19,637,025 to sign Josi, Watson, and either Granlund or Smith. If we assume Josi gets $9-9.5mil then you have essentially $10-10.5 million for Watson and Granlund/Smith which should be do-able. If the cap stays stagnant which is a pretty real possibility things start getting really tight. Regardless, in this situation you're looking at needing to have four players with as of yet little to no NHL experience being regulars in the lineup, which doesn't make me particularly comfortable. Thought this might be an interesting starting point for discussions about how the team should be structuring itself looking forward.

 

[triggrman]

Went through and looked a bit more in depth at out cap situation for next season and thought I would share. Here is what the situation is if you assume we let Grimaldi, Salomaki, Hamhuis, Weber, Irwin, and one of Granlund or Smith leave:

Forsberg-Duchene-(Granlund/Smith)
Tolvanen-Johansen-Arvidsson
Jarnkrok-Turris-Pitlick
(Watson)-Bonino-Sissons

(Josi)-Ellis
Ekholm-Fabbro
Davies-Allard

Reserves: Trenin, Carrier

If you assume a cap increase of $2 million like last season that would leave you with $19,637,025 to sign Josi, Watson, and either Granlund or Smith. If we assume Josi gets $9-9.5mil then you have essentially $10-10.5 million for Watson and Granlund/Smith which should be do-able. If the cap stays stagnant which is a pretty real possibility things start getting really tight. Regardless, in this situation you're looking at needing to have four players with as of yet little to no NHL experience being regulars in the lineup, which doesn't make me particularly comfortable. Thought this might be an interesting starting point for discussions about how the team should be structuring itself looking forward.

which is why I think we need to start getting Davies and Allard spot duty some this season.

 

[BigFatCat999]

which is why I think we need to start getting Davies and Allard spot duty some this season.

They will.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

I like Watson and I am fine signing him, but in no way should he command a real chunk of money. I would be ok with getting Trenin more minutes to start moving towards that role if needed.

I still haven't seen enough from Granlund to garner the probable 6.5+ million he will be asking for. I see Josi as the only MUST sign with our current set up and Smith as the 2nd preference just from my point of view. Would also say that Smith isn't a guy that I would over pay. If he wants to be here and gives us a fair price that is fine.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Forsberg ($6M) - Duchene ($8M) - F1
F2 - Johansen ($8M) - Arvidsson ($4.25M)
-------------------------------------------------
The top 6 forwards are missing two wingers. We usually peg those spots as F1 = Granlund/Smith and F2 = Tolvanen. So far none of those options are really providing warm fuzzies, however. Jarnkrok has played well there and Turris might remain an option as well. It is of course early, so there is lots of time to gain greater assurances, but as of today, I'm probably not signing up to 5x$5M for Smith or 6x$7M for Granlund, say. And Tolvanen is simply not showing he's ready for the NHL given his start in Milwaukee, which is a concern.
-------------------------------------------------
Turris ($6M) - Bonino ($4.1M) - F3
Jarnkrok ($2M) - Sissons ($2.857M) - F4 = Watson (UFA - $1.75M)
F5 = Trenin (RFA - $0.750M)
-------------------------------------------------
The bottom-7 (let's say 7, including a spare) has 5 spots locked down, as I feel a little more safe in projecting a return by Watson, anyway. 3yrs x $1.75M is my offer to him. So far (again still too early) Trenin looks to have a good lead on grabbing a spot. But per the Tolvanen concern, it isn't really a great start for Pitlick so I don't know that we can pencil him in yet either.

So end of the day, we are lacking 3 forwards... could be Smith/Granlund, Tolvanen, and Pitlick. But we'll have to keep monitoring.
-------------------------------------------------
D looks like the new Big-4 returning with basically just a camp battle to replace Hammy, Irwin, and Weber. I'm pretty confident in a Josi re-signing... I'd like it to be for 8x$8M, but let's put down $9M just for the sake of argument.

Josi (UFA - $9M) - Fabbro ($0.925M)
Ekholm ($3.75M) - Ellis ($6.25M)
D5 - D6
D7
-------------------------------------------------
It's sensible to peg Davies, Allard, and Carrier as having the inside tracks on those open D spots. But that's a lot of rookies all at once, so I'd be a little surprised if the team actually went that way.
-------------------------------------------------
Goalies are set.
Rinne ($5M)
Saros ($1.5M)
-------------------------------------------------
Buried: Santini ($0.34167M)
-------------------------------------------------
My Committed Sub-total: $70.47367M

If F2, F3, D5, D6, D7 are in fact Tolvanen ($0.894M), Pitlick (RFA - $0.750M), Carrier (RFA - $0.750M), Allard ($0.715M), and Davies ($0.925M) we would be at:
Pencilled-in Sub-total: $74.5M (lacking F1)

This leaves us with $7M in cap space if the cap flat-lined at $81.5M. Or maybe $9M if it goes up by $2M - but you can probably bet Poile wants to keep at least that much cushion anyway, so it probably just makes sense to take that $7M number as the working target.

And I think having "just" $7M to spend - still with our F1 winger to sign - and the rest of the lineup filled in from Milwaukee exclusively - is a good reason why Poile isn't just opening the vault for Josi. I can't honestly see the team putting 6 rookies on the opening night roster. But where else do the players come from? Smith/Granlund (or a different UFA winger) in the F1 slot is going to swallow the lion's share of our cap space, so it's not likely they can play the UFA market very widely filling those other slots. Maybe they would still look to sign 1 reclamation D player (or I could see Yannick Weber back) as a cheap UFA, but there's just not room for anything else.

I think the big takeaway is that this is really a huge SHOW ME situation for the team's internal options. The spots are there, and the cap situation really steers us towards looking at internal options. We need a big season in Milwaukee. Of course, instead of Tolvanen/Pitlick/Carrier/Allard/Davies Poile actually could just try Grimaldi/Salomaki/Irwin/Weber/Carrier and essentially stand pat for another year. Which would disappoint most of us, I imagine.

Anyway, I think the main thing is we're not going to be looking at any Taylor Halls or Alex Pietrangelos or whoever the biggest name UFAs are, like we were this year (Duchene) and (sort of) last year (Tavares).

If Smith and Granlund don't pan out in the F1 spot, it's not shaping up as a huge UFA crop for alternatives. Some names: Hoffman, Kreider, Toffoli, Dadonov, Haula. The D market looks a lot deeper... another reason I'm not afraid of somebody going nuts after Josi... but we won't have the cap space nor need to play the top end of the D market anyway.

So all in all, I'm not expecting much change... nor much drama. We're pretty safe. It just remains to be seen who steps up for the F1 slot, and whether we can really count on our Milwaukee crew to fill all the other spots or if instead we have to do a little rummaging in the leftovers dumpster.
-------------------------------------------------
TLDR: What Predsanddead24 said.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

I like Watson and I am fine signing him, but in no way should he command a real chunk of money. I would be ok with getting Trenin more minutes to start moving towards that role if needed.

I still haven't seen enough from Granlund to garner the probable 6.5+ million he will be asking for. I see Josi as the only MUST sign with our current set up and Smith as the 2nd preference just from my point of view. Would also say that Smith isn't a guy that I would over pay. If he wants to be here and gives us a fair price that is fine.

Yeah, lot of money for a guy that doesn't create a whole lot on his own and seems dependent on linemates for production, though still a pretty small sample size. Would rather keep Smith for $2-$3M per year less.

 

[triggrman]

Yeah, lot of money for a guy that doesn't create a whole lot on his own and seems dependent on linemates for production, though still a pretty small sample size. Would rather keep Smith for $2-$3M per year less.

at this point, I'm hoping one of the kids can replae them.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Yeah, lot of money for a guy that doesn't create a whole lot on his own and seems dependent on linemates for production, though still a pretty small sample size. Would rather keep Smith for $2-$3M per year less.

I think Turris would have more production to this point in that same role. I mean, that is an absolute A+ Prime position. It would be HIGHLY desirable to any FA winger if they had a chance to play with that pair.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yeah, lot of money for a guy that doesn't create a whole lot on his own and seems dependent on linemates for production, though still a pretty small sample size. Would rather keep Smith for $2-$3M per year less.

I agree. Probably get less years on the contract with Smith too. That $2-3 million can probably net a serviceable third pair D as well.

 

[OldFan]

I agree. Probably get less years on the contract with Smith too. That $2-3 million can probably net a serviceable third pair D as well.

I still get scared when I discover that the Weber/Hamhuis/Irwin combo is on the ice. I’m old enough that my wife and I are forced to TV for the games after 15 or 16 years in 314; so it is a sudden discovery most of the time. I think Laviolette is scared too.
Preds just really need a couple of guys that can take some minutes away from the top 4. They don’t have to score at all; just take some minutes away somewhat safely. Kinda like Preds need from Saros and the 4th line. Otherwise that top 4 may be dragging by playoff time. That is the real danger of that 3rd pair.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I'm resurrecting this thread with all the talk of us selling recently.

An underrated annoying part of us selling are heaps of terrible trade offers on the trade board.

The only players we should be trading are Smith, Granlund, Bonino, and Hamhuis/Irwin/Weber (if anyone even wants them). Maybe Grimaldi but I want to keep him now after this year.

I think Bonino could get a 1st, maybe Smith too. Granlund I think is in 2nd territory at this point. Hamhuis would be a 5th or less, Irwin and Weber would be 7ths.

 

[NightowlPred]

At this point I‘d only be ok with trading Smith or Bonino (as I‘d say these guys would return proper value).
No way I am trading Granlund for a second (although I agree with your assessment that this is what we would get for him right now). I‘d rather hold on to him an make the gamble that he can return to form under the new coach. So maybe hold on to him untill the tdl.

 

[GoldOnGold]

At this point I‘d only be ok with trading Smith or Bonino (as I‘d say these guys would return proper value).
No way I am trading Granlund for a second (although I agree with your assessment that this is what we would get for him right now). I‘d rather hold on to him an make the gamble that he can return to form under the new coach. So maybe hold on to him untill the tdl.

I'd probably wait till the TDL for everyone unless we get a good offer, just to prolong our fading playoff hopes.

I could also see us trading Turris, but I doubt we would trade Joey.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I don't think you trade anybody until you get closer to the trade deadline and figure out where the team is likely headed. If the playoffs are realistically in reach, nobody gets traded.

But assuming no miracle occurs, the only players to trade at the deadline are the impending UFAs. Trade Granlund for sure. There's no way we are re-signing him. If all we get for him is a 2nd, so be it. It's better than the nothingburger he has given us. Smith, ask him first if he'll extend on our terms, if not, trade him too. The others... I don't expect the rest of the league knows who Grimaldi is yet and we're better off keeping him and trying to re-sign him vs. anything we'd get in a trade. If anybody gives us a 7th round pick for Hamhuis, Irwin, or Weber, take it and run.

Turris is the only other player I'd look to trade during the season. And the only one I'd at least listen on trading right now. Because he's still just a nomad in our lineup. And basically will be forever. Even if Hynes doesn't treat him as badly as Lavy did, we still have Joey, Duchene, and Sissons locked up, and Bonino is still a better 3rd line center than Turris. No matter how well Turris plays or how his situation improves under the new coach, he's still going to be underutilized here. Anything we get for him at even a slight positive return value is worth taking because it ultimately frees up cap space to address other needs in the summer. Still has to be a positive return, though... I wouldn't trade Turris as a negative value cap dump.

If things crash entirely during the season, I still think you only consider trading bigger core players during the off-season. But I'd be cautious even then. Hynes walked onto the scene of a trainwreck. Poile waited too long to make the change. I'd be more likely to give the core another full season under Hynes before breaking up the band.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I don't think you trade anybody until you get closer to the trade deadline and figure out where the team is likely headed. If the playoffs are realistically in reach, nobody gets traded.

But assuming no miracle occurs, the only players to trade at the deadline are the impending UFAs. Trade Granlund for sure. There's no way we are re-signing him. If all we get for him is a 2nd, so be it. It's better than the nothingburger he has given us. Smith, ask him first if he'll extend on our terms, if not, trade him too. The others... I don't expect the rest of the league knows who Grimaldi is yet and we're better off keeping him and trying to re-sign him vs. anything we'd get in a trade. If anybody gives us a 7th round pick for Hamhuis, Irwin, or Weber, take it and run.

Turris is the only other player I'd look to trade during the season. And the only one I'd at least listen on trading right now. Because he's still just a nomad in our lineup. And basically will be forever. Even if Hynes doesn't treat him as badly as Lavy did, we still have Joey, Duchene, and Sissons locked up, and Bonino is still a better 3rd line center than Turris. No matter how well Turris plays or how his situation improves under the new coach, he's still going to be underutilized here. Anything we get for him at even a slight positive return value is worth taking because it ultimately frees up cap space to address other needs in the summer. Still has to be a positive return, though... I wouldn't trade Turris as a negative value cap dump.

If things crash entirely during the season, I still think you only consider trading bigger core players during the off-season. But I'd be cautious even then. Hynes walked onto the scene of a trainwreck. Poile waited too long to make the change. I'd be more likely to give the core another full season under Hynes before breaking up the band.

Agreed on basically everything. The one thing I would do slightly different is that I would potentially consider trading Granlund whether or not we're in the playoff hunt depending on the return we could get. If Granlund someone offers us a first or a top end prospect for him I'd have to strongly consider moving him regardless of the playoff position. Trading him is also dependent on if he has a turn around, but at his current level I don't mind losing him even if we are still trying to compete. At this point I'd much rather give Trenin the minutes we've been feeding Granlund anyways.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Agreed on basically everything. The one thing I would do slightly different is that I would potentially consider trading Granlund whether or not we're in the playoff hunt depending on the return we could get. If Granlund someone offers us a first or a top end prospect for him I'd have to strongly consider moving him regardless of the playoff position. Trading him is also dependent on if he has a turn around, but at his current level I don't mind losing him even if we are still trying to compete. At this point I'd much rather give Trenin the minutes we've been feeding Granlund anyways.

This is true. I tend to think rental-like "best offers" don't come in until the deadline bidding heats up, but for sure, if anybody wants to give us a 1st today for Granlund, take it and run. Before I even finished reading your reply I was already formulating my response to say "Trenin is better anyway" too.

 

[Kat Predator]

If things crash entirely during the season, I still think you only consider trading bigger core players during the off-season. But I'd be cautious even then. Hynes walked onto the scene of a trainwreck. Poile waited too long to make the change. I'd be more likely to give the core another full season under Hynes before breaking up the band.

Hockey has always been a team sport and the NHL is a league with a salary cap. "Tanking for a few years" is no guarantee for success and isn't going to build a team with 12 Kucherovs at forward and 6 Giordanos on defense—which is not a well-balanced team composition anyway.

Not sure about others, but it would be a bitter pill if the Preds decided to go full-on with the Edmonton strategy of tanking until they can get a generational player (or a dozen), as there are zero Cups in the display case. The slogans of "there's always next year" only sound good long-term to the ears of fans of the opposition.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Hockey has always been a team sport and the NHL is a league with a salary cap. "Tanking for a few years" is no guarantee for success and isn't going to build a team with 12 Kucherovs at forward and 6 Giordanos on defense—which is not a well-balanced team composition anyway.

Not sure about others, but it would be a bitter pill if the Preds decided to go full-on with the Edmonton strategy of tanking until they can get a generational player (or a dozen), as there are zero Cups in the display case. The slogans of "there's always next year" only sound good long-term to the ears of fans of the opposition.

It doesn't really matter anyways because there is basically a 0% chance that we blow up the whole roster for picks and prospects and start over after we just signed Josi and Duchene to the largest and third largest contracts in team history (by AAV at least). There's a small possibility that we could trade one of our core offensive players for a different offensive player a la Weber for Subban but even then I don't find that particularly likely. I suspect that Poile gives Hynes this season and next with the current roster build before he considers any major changes.

 

[weeze]

I would just like to see better play, better hustle and be competitive. Seems like we are either just pushed around and moved off the puck or we play like we don't care. All of those people calling for ET to be on the roster, his current stats are not very impressive 37GP/7/8/15 places him at #11 on the Ads roster in points. And the Ads are killing it in the AHL! I think calling for him to be on the roster by next year is a stretch.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I would just like to see better play, better hustle and be competitive. Seems like we are either just pushed around and moved off the puck or we play like we don't care. All of those people calling for ET to be on the roster, his current stats are not very impressive 37GP/7/8/15 places him at #11 on the Ads roster in points. And the Ads are killing it in the AHL! I think calling for him to be on the roster by next year is a stretch.

As far as Tolvanen goes these posts were made relatively early on in the season when the picture looked a bit different. At that point Tolvanen (and also Pitlick and Davies) had reportedly looked very good in camp and Jarnkrok had yet to play at a top six level. As it stands now I'd think things look quite a bit different with Trenin and Carrier looking like they are probably the top options to graduate full time to the NHL next season and Jarnkrok likely to stay in the top six next season. I'm still hopeful that another offseason will get Tolvanen NHL ready and we'll give him a shot, but that does seem less likely now than it did in October.

 

[Soundgarden]

If we aren't in a wildcard spot at the deadline trade Smith and Granlund for picks; Bonino if we can get a 1st and/or Turris if someone will take him.

Play Trenin in a top 6 role. See what Pitlick does. Get rid of the third pairing and see what we have with our young guys. Enter the draft with 4-6 top 60 picks; either try and move up as high as we can get, use them as trade chips, or just draft there.

Goalies...Rinne has to be back up at this point, Saros showed promise but isn't playing well with this team in front of him. I'm not too worried because we have Ingram and a good goalie won't be too expensive if it comes to that.

 

[OldFan]

Now don’t jump all over me But:
I think the league may have caught on to Saros. That is, his quickness down low and his lack of height. So everything or at least most everything is going up high and he’s not handling it well. I think his effectiveness has waned to the point where Preds should consider trading him if they can come up with a #1 goalie. Pekka is ready to close out as a backup.
Then I’m souring on Forsberg. He is the most skilled forward on the Preds in a long while. But his lack of overall performance shows, I think. Something is wrong with his effort. He might consider quitting trying to be a Harlem Globetrotter and start trying to be like a Boston Celtic. Everytime he makes one of those trick moves it hurts more than helps. He needs to understand that skill plus effort plus work is what makes star players. Otherwise I’d consider what he would bring in a trade.

 

[LCPreds]

FF9 drives me nuts at this point. I do wonder what kind of value he would return at the TDL (or at any point). I imagine it would be relatively massive. Probably best to at least wait until a few days into February though so he can do his standard goal per game deal leading up to the deadline.

I'm not really on the trade FF9 train or anything but I've soured on him more than any other Preds player this season.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

FF9 drives me nuts at this point. I do wonder what kind of value he would return at the TDL (or at any point). I imagine it would be relatively massive. Probably best to at least wait until a few days into February though so he can do his standard goal per game deal leading up to the deadline.

I'm not really on the trade FF9 train or anything but I've soured on him more than any other Preds player this season.

I hear you. It's frustrating because he is obviously incredibly skilled, but he is also a pretty powerful skater. He tries so many dipsy-doodle-type plays (including in our defensive zone) when he would achieve far more by dropping his shoulder and powering to the net. For better or worse, I perceive him to have a very inconsistent work rate/compete level and at times a fairly selfish player (including taking some of the worst frustration penalties on the team).