Speculation: Armchair GM Thread III: Post Deadline, Now with more armchairing

[WeegarUnderwood]

Never heard that. Trade Frolik for futures. Sign Simmonds. It's likely a wash, but we get some grit on the downside and a player that can hit 50 points and 20 goals on the upside. Can't see Wayne costing more than $4.5 - $5 million a year. Make it 3 x 5 and I think we make traction there.

No way do I want to pay Simmonds 5 million. He had 30 points last year, and only 3 points (1 goal too) after being traded to Nashville. plus he doesn’t wanna come here anyway iirc

 

[Deen]

He'd still be around 3rd (until Frolik goes) on the team in playoff games and 2nd in points next to Neal. Plus Simmonds is tough.



He's like a better Bennett. I don't know why you guys are against signing him.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Can’t have both Wayne Train and Neal on the same team.

 

[lightstorm]

1. Simmonds looked done in Philly and was even worse in Nash. If Tre goes anywhere near him, he's completely lost it.

2. $10+ mil tied in 3 players that literally did not play for the Flames in their biggest game of the year: Neal, Brouwer's buyout and press box Stone is brutal. Inexcusable. That's a top tier player right there.

3. Tre doesn't get enough heat for committing almost $5mil per long term to a vanilla player in Hanifin. I'd ship him out along with Brodie.

 

[Fig]

If I'm the contrarian, so be it.

IMO, the Flames need not make the biggest splash this off season. Weirdly enough, I think the main focus is shedding excess players on forward and D to make room for the kids looking to graduate. I think Frolik and perhaps Brodie might be gone due to circumstances. I cannot see Stone nor Neal being moved. After the main moves from D and F (and mostly for futures and prospects I might add...) we may look to take excess futures and add them to existing roster players for maybe a middle 6 player upgrade (Josh Anderson ilk?) and perhaps a goalie upgrade or reclamation project (ie: Salary retained Allen so they can chase Varly/Bob?) . IMO, it's not prudent to do otherwise with the cap situation we are sitting on. No matter how you slice it, this team was good enough for 2nd in the league this season. IMO, we have an excellent core to work with and it's all about internal growth and fine tuning now. Moving assets for higher end players isn't a good idea. We should just choose our foundation and stick with it.

IMO we need to insulate Johnny and Mony more. If we can internally shuffle players and have a 1A/1B that allows Johnny and Mony to feast on 2nd lines, that's great. It's sorta what we've been doing with the 3M line anyways, but not officially.

This is just my opinion. I do not think Tre will overhaul the roster. I think he will stick with it. He definitely will spend time to eye good deals for a middle 6 upgrade IMO, but he's not going to overpay or pay over market to acquire players to add to the roster. We have something workable.

 

[Dack]

Treliving should be talking to Tampa Bay, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Winnipeg one or more of those teams is going to make a bad decision and I hope we capatalize on it.

I'd hope upper management would block a Simmonds signing with how Neal has turned out, and Wayne's decline.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

If I'm the contrarian, so be it.

IMO, the Flames need not make the biggest splash this off season. Weirdly enough, I think the main focus is shedding excess players on forward and D to make room for the kids looking to graduate. I think Frolik and perhaps Brodie might be gone due to circumstances. I cannot see Stone nor Neal being moved. After the main moves from D and F (and mostly for futures and prospects I might add...) we may look to take excess futures and add them to existing roster players for maybe a middle 6 player upgrade (Josh Anderson ilk?) and perhaps a goalie upgrade or reclamation project (ie: Salary retained Allen so they can chase Varly/Bob?) . IMO, it's not prudent to do otherwise with the cap situation we are sitting on. No matter how you slice it, this team was good enough for 2nd in the league this season. IMO, we have an excellent core to work with and it's all about internal growth and fine tuning now. Moving assets for higher end players isn't a good idea. We should just choose our foundation and stick with it.

IMO we need to insulate Johnny and Mony more. If we can internally shuffle players and have a 1A/1B that allows Johnny and Mony to feast on 2nd lines, that's great. It's sorta what we've been doing with the 3M line anyways, but not officially.

This is just my opinion. I do not think Tre will overhaul the roster. I think he will stick with it. He definitely will spend time to eye good deals for a middle 6 upgrade IMO, but he's not going to overpay or pay over market to acquire players to add to the roster. We have something workable.

I kinda disagree. I get what you’re saying and it’s the smart play, but what I see is a topline C that cannot drive the play or create offence on his own. He’s an elite finisher. I think we really need to add more elite talent to this roster and support it with all good depth we’ve been growing on the farm.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Didn't Simmonds refuse to waive to come to Calgary at the deadline?

His wife is (was?) pregnant and there were no convenient/direct flights from Calgary in the event that she popped.

 

[lightstorm]

Actually, I forgot Bouma's buyout.

So that's 4 players that did not play for the Flames in the elimination game, while costing them $11.5 mil in dead cap space.

That's almost as much as Johnny and Monahan combined. They get constantly crapped on.

Yet the Wizard escapes criticism.

Go figure.

 

[2023FriendshipTour]

Stone is on a tradable contract. He's a good 3rd pairing guy that can fill in on th second pairing.

 

[DFF]

Stone is on a tradable contract. He's a good 3rd pairing guy that can fill in on th second pairing.

You must be joking......he cant even make the Flames top 6 which was joke during the playoff. He also lost his job to the rookies and some superstar named Fantenberg . He may even be behind Prout

Dude is dead cap space. Nobody is going to pay a guy 3M+ to eat popcorn.

Well, Maybe Trevling.....

 

[lightstorm]

Don't forget Stone cost a 3rd rounder and a conditional 5th.

No way Treliving recoups that.

Another goodie, along with a second rounder for Lazar who doesn't play for the big club either.

 

[Calculon]

Fantenberg had nothing to do with Stone; they play different sides. Yes, Peters also has a thing for handedness and sides; he's only said as much about a dozen times through the season. And again, Brodie is the exception, not the rule.

Stone not playing had less to do with him being not good enough but rather that he's simply not better than any of Brodie, Hamonic or Andersson. And honestly, Stone isn't terrible value given there's only a year left on his contract and the cap hit is manageable. He has a terrific shot that was wasted on the Flames because they wouldn't ever put him on the powerplay. His overall play is okay, I guess. But other teams might look at all that and prefer it over handing out a lot of term and money to whatever's out there in free agency (if there's even anything worthwhile at all).

He'd have positive value for sure if the Flames were willing to retain some salary. Failing that, I can't see why he couldn't be traded for a contract dump at worst (i.e. AHL'ers). There's plenty of teams that could use a right handed defencemen with a booming shot from the point and a bit of truculence to his game. Babcock for instance would love him, doubly so if the Leafs had any cap space.

 

[super6646]

Don't forget Stone cost a 3rd rounder and a conditional 5th.

No way Treliving recoups that.

Another goodie, along with a second rounder for Lazar who doesn't play for the big club either.

Meh, Stone wasn’t a big deal.

Giving up a 2nd for lazar though was terrible. Reclaimation projects almost never work, and even when they do, it’s not like you couldn’t find a better player anyway (baerschi or Andersson anyone?). Hope we don’t trade these next two first round picks, because our prospect pool is next to gone.

 

[Dack]

I said when they signed Stone that they should've signed literally any 1 year stop gap instead of him and run a Kulak-RHUFA pairing. I thought for sure that was the plan when we traded for Hamonic. I know a 5th isn't much but it's an asset Treliving had to give up to sign a bad contract.


2nd for Lazar was, is and will continue to be awful from the moment it happened.

 

[Fig]

I kinda disagree. I get what you’re saying and it’s the smart play, but what I see is a topline C that cannot drive the play or create offence on his own. He’s an elite finisher. I think we really need to add more elite talent to this roster and support it with all good depth we’ve been growing on the farm.

TBH, I don't think we are as far off as you think. My idea is to take Monahan off the first line, however, rather than trade him, my idea would be to push Monahan down to the second or 1B line because I don't think a reasonable priced replacement is available. Tkachuk - Backlund - Lindholm or Backlund - Lindholm- Tkachuk would be my idea for a 1A that pushes JG and Mony down.


TL;DR - I somehow have a seriously nagging feeling that the best way to move forward is actually to take a few steps back.

IMO the shift I'm leaning towards is a little less safe moves, but more fine tuning. You can't fine tune if you make too many moves to the core, so stick with the guys we have. I'd be looking to change the system to a more dynamic offensive minded one rather than a passive defensive group. This way, we enhance the skills we have, rather than try to play with less weakness. IMO Hartley's style is going to be vogue again soon. IMO a key flaw of our approach this playoffs was being too defensive minded IMO. Our roster is designed for Roshambo testicular fortitude lunacy. I felt like I saw glimmers of the old lunch pail group playing against us this series.

IMO it's a little less about talent right now and much more about buy in/fine tuning now. That's why Vegas and the '15 Flames succeeded. That's why I think the Caps won their cup with arguably one of the weakest rosters on paper in the last decade or so vs the other regular season power house rosters. We should take the playoff experience and learn to begin to dig trenches now. Otherwise, I feel like we'd be Colorado circa 13/14 due to too many adjustments to the roster.

Again, I know I'm contrarian on this and even I personally kinda hate the idea of standing pat, but deep down I cannot help but feel we will crater if we have more than 2 brand new NHL regulars. Goalie and middle 6 forward are the only new faces I would potentially add IMO. Give the boys reigns and another shot at a deep run with a mostly similar core before shaking the foundation. However, I'd do serious moves to the prospect pool to maintain a prospect core ready to chomp at the bit and have hunger for a shot at the spotlight.

IMO, I'd love to see Peters tweak the system to open more offense. Increase aggressiveness and pressure, decrease passivity and mechanical. We lost something from the era of earned not given. A hunger and killer instinct of sorts. We lost something along the way in terms of the never quit motto. We lost something about just playing the game and focused on wins and losses. And then, we began looking big picture and forgot to consider consistency.

We used to play in 7 game segments.
We used to leave everything on the ice every game. Not just the ones that were supposed to matter.
What Hartley seemed to lack in structure, he somehow made up in a sort of weird street cred.

I know many of you may read my post and really scoff and scowl at the idea that the roster deserves forgiveness and a mulligan for their recent playoff performance. I know I did. But I dare say we should evaluate the regular season in an honest manner as well. Let that drunken rage from the sorrows of the playoffs also be the drunken state of which we can use to speak with balanced candor of the regular season performance as well.

 

[GAMO1992]

Players I realistically see either being shopped, let go, or outright moved:

Frolik(4.3): Good as gone IMO
Brodie(4.65): our young guys are looking quite ready to step up
Stone(3.5): Not really much to say there
Hathaway(875K): while it'd be nice to keep him, anything more than 1.5M would be a massive mistake for a 4th liner
Czarnik(1.25): He was in Peters' doghouse all year, I doubt he's still with us next season
Monahan(6.375): If any of our 'core' get moved, I bet it's him. It's becoming more apparent that the dude just isn't a driver, and can't own his own line. We need a 1st line center that actually DRIVES the play himself, instead of just being a passenger to Johnny. Idealistically he'd be a FANTASTIC 2nd line C

That's around 23M just in those players, add on Bouma's and RYAN MURPHY's Buyouts(yes we were still paying for his buyout per capfriendly)
Let's say for the sake of it that Chucky gets 6.5M and Benny 2.5-3M, that's about 9M~ish. And lets say Rittich gets 2.5M 'Prove me' contract for 2 yrs.
So let's say we move out Brodie, Frolike, Stone, and Hath wants too much + the ending of the Bouma and Murphy buyouts. those moves alone pay for Chucky and Benny's raises and then some(17.2M combined for all but Monahan), which let's say Chucky, Benny, and Ritter sign those deals(about 12M for the 3) leaves us still around about 5-6M in available salary.

If people really think there isn't gonna be a decent amount of roster turnover, then IDK what to say to you. The 'least' likely to move is Monahan, but even then, that's still around 5(+) players we will have to replace.

Our team is in a weird spot to be completely, truthfully honest. We won the Conference, but should we have won it? We still have a lot of variables and uncertainties for next season. We need all our players to play hard for the entire 60 mins, not coast for the first 40 like we've seen far, far too often the past number of years; see all the 3rd period comebacks.
Stuff is gonna happen this off-season, absolutely.

 

[Fig]

Players I realistically see either being shopped, let go, or outright moved:

If people really think there isn't gonna be a decent amount of roster turnover, then IDK what to say to you. The 'least' likely to move is Monahan, but even then, that's still around 5(+) players we will have to replace.

Our team is in a weird spot to be completely, truthfully honest. We won the Conference, but should we have won it? We still have a lot of variables and uncertainties for next season. We need all our players to play hard for the entire 60 mins, not coast for the first 40 like we've seen far, far too often the past number of years; see all the 3rd period comebacks.
Stuff is gonna happen this off-season, absolutely.

Not saying we are at odds, but technically, we can cordially agree to disagree. Let's not forget we are all brethren hoping for the same end result. We just differ in our ideas of how to reach that goal. We don't need to tear each other apart and be smug when reality unfolds in our favour. Seriously, I want that huge move to buzz about as much as you do. But I don't think any major move pushes us over the top.

You ask if we should have won the conference and I ask how much is unsustainable... where do we end up? As mentioned, a lot of the regular season was sloppy, albeit more entertainment than we've had in a long while under Glue Gun. The crazy part is that even with the conference win there's room to improve. This playoff drubbing is a splash of cold water to back to reality. I think bringing in major talent gives some guys an excuse. I think little movement really drives the team to self reflect and be honest about how much more they had to give.

Again, I'm not trying to be an enemy or trying to stir anything up. I am merely musing about option B to go with option A for off season discussion.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

I think one thing everyone can agree on is this team needs to get better.

 

[Fig]

I think one thing everyone can agree on is this team needs to get better.

And we want to win the cup.

 

[GAMO1992]

Not saying we are at odds, but technically, we can cordially agree to disagree. Let's not forget we are all brethren hoping for the same end result. We just differ in our ideas of how to reach that goal. We don't need to tear each other apart and be smug when reality unfolds in our favour. Seriously, I want that huge move to buzz about as much as you do. But I don't think any major move pushes us over the top.

You ask if we should have won the conference and I ask how much is unsustainable... where do we end up? As mentioned, a lot of the regular season was sloppy, albeit more entertainment than we've had in a long while under Glue Gun. The crazy part is that even with the conference win there's room to improve. This playoff drubbing is a splash of cold water to back to reality. I think bringing in major talent gives some guys an excuse. I think little movement really drives the team to self reflect and be honest about how much more they had to give.

Again, I'm not trying to be an enemy or trying to stir anything up. I am merely musing about option B to go with option A for off season discussion.

Oh that wasn't directed at you lol I was typing that up a while ago, but forgot to post it Like i started typing that up around lunch time haha so apologies if it seemed it was directed towards you, it was just a general statement to all.

But after reading thru what you said, I am gonna have to agree to disagree. I truly think all those players I mentioned will be gone, maybe besides Money, but even then I would definitely be open to moving him.
Frolik, after his exit comments, might as well pack his bags.
Czarnik simply wasn't played enough, so I wouldn't be shocked he quietly asked for a trade, and for just 1.25M he's defnitely tradeable to a team lacking a bit of depth.
Stone was injured for too long and I doubt he comes back.
Brodie i think is moved while his value is at his highest, it's simply good asset management, especially if our younger players are looking like they can take the next step soon.
And again, if Hathaway is asking for more than 1.5M, we let him go. We cannot have another Bouma on our hands. Dude's a 4th liner. Some team will pay him if he is asking for more than he's worth.
While I agree with your idea in principle that we should only tweak, I just genuinely feel in my gut all of those players, at least, will not be on the team at the start of the coming season

 

[Ace Rimmer]

That's around 23M just in those players, add on Bouma's and RYAN MURPHY's Buyouts(yes we were still paying for his buyout per capfriendly)

Both of these buyouts are done at the end of this season. I think you can pencil in a question mark beside Neal's name too.

Edit: The end of the buyouts were acknowledged later in your post. Carry on.

 

[Fig]

Oh that wasn't directed at you lol I was typing that up a while ago, but forgot to post it Like i started typing that up around lunch time haha so apologies if it seemed it was directed towards you, it was just a general statement to all.

But after reading thru what you said, I am gonna have to agree to disagree. I truly think all those players I mentioned will be gone, maybe besides Money, but even then I would definitely be open to moving him.
Frolik, after his exit comments, might as well pack his bags.
Czarnik simply wasn't played enough, so I wouldn't be shocked he quietly asked for a trade, and for just 1.25M he's defnitely tradeable to a team lacking a bit of depth.
Stone was injured for too long and I doubt he comes back.
Brodie i think is moved while his value is at his highest, it's simply good asset management, especially if our younger players are looking like they can take the next step soon.
And again, if Hathaway is asking for more than 1.5M, we let him go. We cannot have another Bouma on our hands. Dude's a 4th liner. Some team will pay him if he is asking for more than he's worth.
While I agree with your idea in principle that we should only tweak, I just genuinely feel in my gut all of those players, at least, will not be on the team at the start of the coming season

No worries. I didn't feel you were targeting me. That sentence did read like a generic statement so I was addressing that comment in terms of the idea that we need more ideas, not less. I'm leaning more towards moves that insulate the core, rather than replacing pieces of it.

Actually, in my previous post, I said I think Frolik and Brodie are the candidates of guys I think end up gone but likely for prospects and futures. I then mentioned that the next movement of guys would either be for a middle 6 upgrade and possibly a goalie. I'm not saying that moves won't be made. I am just saying that I don't think major moves will be made.

Idea wise, I feel like even if the Blues/Preds are likely looking at being unreasonable in moving two players:

1. Kyle Turris ; playing bottom 6 in Nashville right now?
2. Jake Allen; backup to Binnington

If we could get Nashville to retain on Turris (@ 4 mil (2 mil retained)) and maybe a Frolik/Allen swap, I think we could put together a decent package of futures and current NHL roster players in a manner that would constitute an upgrade of our middle 6 and our goal tending situation. I think both guys are hugely miscast in the current systems they play in. I think Allen thrives in a more run and gun style rather than the smothering support style that is the Blues defensive system. I also don't think there would be major differences between him and Smith... but if he's better than Smith, great. If not, we're hanging our hat on Rittich. Turris doesn't seem like the right type of skill and physicality combo for Nashville's system and they might be willing to chase him out of town. Somehow, he also reminds me of Doc. Two guys like Doc anchoring the bottom 6 would be pretty darn good. I think both guys improve with a change of scenery trade.

Rittich re-signs for a reasonable cap hit and platoons with Allen.

If we can get Nashville to retain around 2mil on Turris and utilize him as a 3C, that's excellent depth for us. IMO, it'd be worth it to move those assets and pay the premium to get Nashville to retain salary and send prospect/futures back. A 4 Mil Turris isn't too bad in our bottom 6 and I somehow think he would mesh well with Neal on the 3rd line. His 6x6 in the bottom 6 for the Preds would be horrid. I'm pretty sure we could both guys with the salary retain we want for Janko + Brodie + Frolik and squeak off other decent futures as well. Package wise, I'd be deeply evaluating hoping that some combo along the lines of Janko/Brodie/Frolik/picks makes sense for the Blues/Preds. If not, back to the drawing board. There might be a move where we can benefit when the Blues move Allen then goes big game hunting for a goalie and in a quantity for quality top 6 upgrade. We might be able to do the same with Nashville if we pay a respectful premium for them to retain salary on Turris. If we buy out Turris later on, it wouldn't really be a major hit to the cap I believe.

I think the Blues may consider it if they can shift lodged cap space around from G to F (Allen vs Frolik). I think Nashville wouldn't mind something like Janko+Brodie for Turris+. Brodie would be a good PK replacement if the rumors PK Subban might be moving are true. Heck, Brodie to Blues might also be a good idea as he could be a decent JBo replacement.

Such a move is not a splash IMO or a major core shake up for us. A move like this still puts onus on the current core to perform.

Assuming that move is a success with Janko/Brodie/Frolik out and upgrades to the prospect pool instead of the NHL roster, we'd kinda be looking maybe at a roster like this:

Backlund - Lindholm - Tkachuk/Tkachuk - Backlund - Lindholm
JG/Dube* - Monahan - JG/Czarnik
Bennett - Turris - Neal/Czarnik
Mangiapane - Ryan - Hathaway
Neal

*If Dube is not top 6, he should play top line in AHL.

Gio - Hamonic/Andersson
Hanifin - Andersson/Hamonic
Kylington*/Valimaki* - Stone
Fantenberg

* Whoever isn't bottom pairing is to play top pairing in AHL.

Rittich/Allen
X (ie: Someone on the cusp like Jarry... etc.?)


Thoughts?

EDIT: I AM MAJOR STUPID. MUCH BOURBON I CONSUMED!
I was thinking Nashville and Blues and mixed the ideas up together. Let me know if I still have errors in the post.

/facepalm.

 

[Nanuuk]

Don't forget the rumoured or actual signings (Peters mentioned two that were not announced yet) that, assuming one or two can make the big club, might influence any trade Tre might make.

Artyom Zagidulin - Goalie, age 23, 6'2" 176 lbs.
Joakim Nygård - left shot LW, age 26, 6'0" 179 lbs.
Alexander Yelesin - right shot RD, age 23, 5'11" 192 lbs.
Andrei Chibisov - left shot RW, age 26, 6'4" 227 lbs.
Luke Philip - right shot Centre, age 23, 5'10" 180 lbs.

What interests me is the two 26 yr olds. I'm not sure the Flames would be chasing them if the plan was the AHL. At 26, the physical and mental maturity should be there. We'll see if the Flames can land them. Yelesin is a smooth skating, rough and tumble player with a cannon of a shot. Not sure about hockey IQ and it will be interesting to see if he makes the club assuming Brodie is traded.

 

[Volica]

Don't forget Stone cost a 3rd rounder and a conditional 5th.

No way Treliving recoups that.

Another goodie, along with a second rounder for Lazar who doesn't play for the big club either.

The 3rd they paid for Stone at that deadline helped this team get into the playoffs. You pay that 10/10 times to do so. If anyone cares to remember, our defensive depth was:

Giordano, Brodie, Dougie.

Wideman, Jokipakka, Bartkowski, Engelland.

Stone paired with Brodie ended up being a huge factor in actually making the show. The reverse gymnastics to point out how bad of a trade that is, is laughable not considering the period of time they were in. I didn't think signing him again was needed, after Hamonic, but Calgary wanted to build a deep blueline.

As for Lazar. They paid the price to get a guy who at one time was projected to be a pretty damn good player. IT didn't work out. The Lazar trade is Treliving's only shot in the dark. All things considered, it wasn't a bad gamble; it just didn't pay out. Who knows who our scouts had with that second rounder regardless. In hindsight everything is 20/20.