Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - 2020-2021 II

[CamPopplestone]

We also can't sell off everyone. We need to Ice a team and hit a minimum salary cap. And I'll be scared if we sell everyone remotely valuable that we'll sign a bunch of really bad long term ufa contracts

 

[RasmusAndersson]

If the Jackets don't trade you Laine, and you pick up a 2c, why not move Monahan to the wing?

I defs would try that, but imo its not like moving Monahan to the wing and away from Gaudreau will help him elevate his game offensively, which is the main (only) value he provides. At that point I'd rather look for a natural RH RW or picks+prospects and allocate that extra 6 mil elsewhere cause imo a Tkachuk-_____-Monahan line would be terrifying defensively, any Monahan-Gaudreau combination has already been beaten to death, and his value is wasted at $6.35 on a 3rd line. He just isn't the type of guy I'd want to play with my top players long-term. He can absolutely snip it but he can't create space for our more skilled guys and can't be the reliable defensive C/W that allows his linemates to create the chances. That plus his average footspeed and I definitely don't think he's a fit on this Sutter team

 

[RasmusAndersson]

We also can't sell off everyone. We need to Ice a team and hit a minimum salary cap. And I'll be scared if we sell everyone remotely valuable that we'll sign a bunch of really bad long term ufa contracts

Oh 100%. Don't need to sell everyone, especially the Mang's/Tkachuks/Dube's/Hanifins/Juuso's/Rasmus' who are still very young. But Monahan and Backlund, those guys have to be on the block along with Bennett/Gio/every UFA we have. We aren't a playoff team in the next year/two at least, and Backlund's value is bound to regress in that time, so we gotta start looking 3-5 years down the road and make those tough selling decisions imo. We're literally so bad its at the point where we can't possibly just do nothing because we're only getting worse w Gio already regressing, Backlund/Tanev bound to in the next 2-3 years, and 0 NHL ready prospects for next year. If we don't start accumulating future assets we're gonna be sitting in a similar position in 2 years as we are today and were two years ago. Core changes are neeeeeded its so obvious we aren't a contender without sweeping changes

 

[Anglesmith]

So you want to tank this season, get a high pick, and then what about next season? Suddenly be good again despite 0 legit NHL ready prospects and almost 0 cap flexibility? Pray that our 5th-8th overall pick is able to make a huge difference in the next two years? I really don’t understand why we’d wanna tank this year but not sell off any of our somewhat valuable assets for picks and prospects as if we expect to just be a playoff team again next year?? Like when you say ‘usually that is required for tanking’ it’s not because in a typical tank the team just wants to be bad. it’s to accumulate assets for the future. Which is exactly what we should be doing and not just trying to maintain a ‘competitive’ roster that is clearly not even a playoff team. That’s like the most half-a** Flames-esque ‘tank’ I could imagine

Before I clarify some confusion in my last post, I'd like to question why it is perfectly fine for us to accept when teams suddenly become bad over an off-season while maintaining a stance that the opposite is impossible. This is something I point out all the time. It does cut both ways. Florida is a great example.

Anyway, what I meant but said rather ambiguously is that in order to lose games at a rate that leads to a high draft pick this year, if that is the goal, then no significant moves are necessary. The idea of selling anyone who isn't in the future plans makes sense from an asset management standpoint, but if you can maximize your draft position without moving away core pieces, that's basically having your cake and eating it too.

With regards to whether we actually need to go scorched Earth and build a new core from scratch, that is a separate matter entirely. Doing so has a very high chance of bringing us back to this exact same sort of organizational positioning, but just after a waiting time of 5 years or so. I mean, what does anyone realistically expect to get out of a rebuild? You hope to get some high-talent young forwards, which we have, some high-talent young defencemen, which we have, and a starting goalie, which we have. You also want plenty of young guys pushing up through the ranks and filling roster spots, which we have an abundance of. At a certain point, we need to just suck it up and realize that progress isn't always linear, and down years happen. Trying to have the "perfect rebuild" would have led the Oilers, for example, to trade McDavid like so many were calling for over the last few years when mediocrity was continuing in Edmonton. Even though giving up is the easiest course of action and causes the least anxiety, it isn't always necessarily the right move for a franchise.

The Flames absolutely need to increase talent in order to become a contender. They need major growth to continue from the young guys currently in the fold, and they need the prospects who are near to the surface to be impact guys that take the club to the next level. But more important than any of that is just how they play as a team. That is the biggest difference between Peters' first year here and what we are watching now. A great start to the season and the sense of confidence that that brings can do wonders for elevating individuals.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Before I clarify some confusion in my last post, I'd like to question why it is perfectly fine for us to accept when teams suddenly become bad over an off-season while maintaining a stance that the opposite is impossible. This is something I point out all the time. It does cut both ways. Florida is a great example.

Anyway, what I meant but said rather ambiguously is that in order to lose games at a rate that leads to a high draft pick this year, if that is the goal, then no significant moves are necessary. The idea of selling anyone who isn't in the future plans makes sense from an asset management standpoint, but if you can maximize your draft position without moving away core pieces, that's basically having your cake and eating it too.

With regards to whether we actually need to go scorched Earth and build a new core from scratch, that is a separate matter entirely. Doing so has a very high chance of bringing us back to this exact same sort of organizational positioning, but just after a waiting time of 5 years or so. I mean, what does anyone realistically expect to get out of a rebuild? You hope to get some high-talent young forwards, which we have, some high-talent young defencemen, which we have, and a starting goalie, which we have. You also want plenty of young guys pushing up through the ranks and filling roster spots, which we have an abundance of. At a certain point, we need to just suck it up and realize that progress isn't always linear, and down years happen. Trying to have the "perfect rebuild" would have led the Oilers, for example, to trade McDavid like so many were calling for over the last few years when mediocrity was continuing in Edmonton. Even though giving up is the easiest course of action and causes the least anxiety, it isn't always necessarily the right move for a franchise.

The Flames absolutely need to increase talent in order to become a contender. They need major growth to continue from the young guys currently in the fold, and they need the prospects who are near to the surface to be impact guys that take the club to the next level. But more important than any of that is just how they play as a team. That is the biggest difference between Peters' first year here and what we are watching now. A great start to the season and the sense of confidence that that brings can do wonders for elevating individuals.

Oh I totally agree that it does cut both ways and that teams could suddenly become good, but that isn't something we can plan or hope for. We haven't shown nearly the level of skill or compete necessary for us to confidently plan around a big bounce-back season. Florida is a good example but they have a wayyyy better core than us. Like if we had ANYONE on Barkov or Ekblad's level then its a very different conversation. Only once you lock down those guys if you still struggle then you can tinker around with the rest of the roster and hope for a huge bounce back because ur never gonna get fair value by selling those already core pieces. But for us, without core guys to rely on like that I really really don't think we can put faith in a bounce-back. It's not like this is just one down year either, we've needed upgrades/ changes since well before last off-season so I think we have all the evidence we need to know that we can't bet on suddenly becoming good.

As for the concept of rebuilding, have you seen the Oilers now? Toronto's forwards? Tampa 6-8 years ago? What Ottawa has accumulated? Hell it took Florida a long time but they must be pretty darn happy right now with a 1C 1D and 1LW. We simply don't compare. yes there are 100% examples of failed rebuilds, and there are 100% examples of successful ones. it will definitely take time, and there's risk, but to me the risk of rebuilding comes with a way way higher potential reward, whereas sticking with the current roster or only making roster moves is also risky (maybe a bit less) but with way way less potential upside. Like what move could we make to put us in the tier of contender? Do you really wanna never have a shot at young elite talent and instead take your chances on continuous 'hockey trades' that don't bring significant improvements? haven't we learned our lesson from the Iggy era? No more Olli Jokinen farewell tour. No more Russell-Wideman 2nd pair. Lets actually build a foundation and not take shortcuts or else we'll continue this endless cycle of mediocrity.

I also don't think we need to sell off every single guy and scorch earth completely. But we do need to sell 2-3 core pieces imo. Sell some pieces this season. Trade Johnny if he's gonna walk so we don't completely lose our only elite offensive talent for nothing. Identify 2-3 pieces that are most expendable and sell them for futures. We could have so much young talent by 2024 if we just sold Monahan, Backlund, and potentially Gaudreau now. Suck for this year, probably next year too and maybe even 2022-23. But in 2024.... We could have 3 top-10 picks, at least 2-3 firsts and more solid prospects from shipping those guys and hopefully one or two more, and STILL have a core of Tkachuk Lindholm Mang Dube Pelletier Hanifin Rasmus Valimaki plus 5 1sts and plenty of cap space. it's not like we don't have the pieces to build around a great core, we just literally are missing the actual main pieces of the core lol

 

[DomBarr]

Oh 100%. Don't need to sell everyone, especially the Mang's/Tkachuks/Dube's/Hanifins/Juuso's/Rasmus' who are still very young. But Monahan and Backlund, those guys have to be on the block along with Bennett/Gio/every UFA we have. We aren't a playoff team in the next year/two at least, and Backlund's value is bound to regress in that time, so we gotta start looking 3-5 years down the road and make those tough selling decisions imo. We're literally so bad its at the point where we can't possibly just do nothing because we're only getting worse w Gio already regressing, Backlund/Tanev bound to in the next 2-3 years, and 0 NHL ready prospects for next year. If we don't start accumulating future assets we're gonna be sitting in a similar position in 2 years as we are today and were two years ago. Core changes are neeeeeded its so obvious we aren't a contender without sweeping changes

I find this funny...we go on about how Mangiapane, Hanifin, and Andersson are still developing and having a breakout years and when it comes to Mangiapane he is actually older than Bennett and his best season (last) was still not a good as Bennett's rookie year.
I am not saying Bennett is going to suddenly be a stud but in the list of players you said are still very young 3 are all heading into being 25yo and none have established themselves as core pieces.
But on that list only Tkachuk can truly be viewed as a core piece of a franchise and I think even he can be shipped out in the right deal.
This is the issue with the Flames they truly have NO untouchable core players.

 

[User1996]

I find this funny...we go on about how Mangiapane, Hanifin, and Andersson are still developing and having a breakout years and when it comes to Mangiapane he is actually older than Bennett and his best season (last) was still not a good as Bennett's rookie year.
I am not saying Bennett is going to suddenly be a stud but in the list of players you said are still very young 3 are all heading into being 25yo and none have established themselves as core pieces.
But on that list only Tkachuk can truly be viewed as a core piece of a franchise and I think even he can be shipped out in the right deal.
This is the issue with the Flames they truly have NO untouchable core players.

Clearly Bennett is not the player from his rookie year...

 

[Volica]

Hahaha this is one of the most paradoxical posts of all time. Full tank mode! Sell sell sell! Except keep every single player of value and ship Bennett for a 4th!!! Sell sell sell tank so damn hard! Oh except don’t trade Monahan or Backlund for a 1st+prospect but also tank soooo hard

We are a terrible team, we don’t need to sell everyone.
This isn’t NHL 2021, there isn’t going to be 30 trade partners ready to deal firsts and prospects for everything we have. It’s just not how it works, especially this year.

Wait until the offseason to see what shakes loose, there’s a new team coming in that’s adding another 60-80m in cap to the league.

 

[Kranix]

Who was it on here, I think he's pretty much left or changed his username, who adamantly didn't want to win the Matthews lottery because 1st overall picks are tainted with losing culture.

 

[DomBarr]

Clearly Bennett is not the player from his rookie year...

Never said he was..a combination of his age, a bad shoulder, a bad development plan, terrible center depth, Columbus going off the board causing another highend LW to drop to us and his own limited success in the playoffs messed it up

 

[Volica]

Who was it on here, I think he's pretty much left or changed his username, who adamantly didn't want to win the Matthews lottery because 1st overall picks are tainted with losing culture.

I can think of one poster that would fit that description.
If it's the same dude, he hated the Senators because they tanked in 1992 to draft Daigle; and because of that were never to be considered a legitimate franchise ever again.

Also, if it's the same dude; in 2013, like... you couldn't even post about getting a better draft position without you essentially being told that you weren't a real fan, that you should just become a fan of the Oil, that no self respecting fan ever chooses to cheer for loses. Like, outward vitriol. Also, God forbid you ever mentioned "I don't think we should be drafting Sean Monahan".

On the GDT I literally busted Dube Doo's balls about it

 

[Volica]

This is the issue with the Flames they truly have NO untouchable core players.

I believe Calgary will be open to trading any single player on the roster, but the ask on some guys will be really high. I have it like this:

Tier A - Guys that will require a very large overpayment to move.
General rule of thumb: They're young, on a good contract, and are bright spots or have been bright spots very recently:

Noah Hanifin, Juuso Valimaki, Dillon Dube, Andrew Mangiapane, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk

Tier B - Guys that will require a better-than-average return to move.
General rule of thumb: Guys who are playing well, or have been key members of the organization. For example, guys you wouldn't move for just a first round pick in the 20 range and call it a day.

Chris Tanev, Johnny Gaudreau, Mikeal Backlund, Rasmus Andersson

Tier C - Guys that if a deal came up that had exact value, you pull the trigger. Example being, you'd be happy to move for a first round pick in the 20's and call it a day (not saying they're worth more or less than that, example, Monahan if the offer was a 1st + B prospect kind of thing).

Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Sam Bennett, Doc Ryan,

Tier D - Guys that have little to no value anyway.

Pretty much everyone else.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

We are a terrible team, we don’t need to sell everyone.
This isn’t NHL 2021, there isn’t going to be 30 trade partners ready to deal firsts and prospects for everything we have. It’s just not how it works, especially this year.

Wait until the offseason to see what shakes loose, there’s a new team coming in that’s adding another 60-80m in cap to the league.

Oh 100% we shouldn't just ship pieces for nothing and force it at the deadline, but big changes def have to be made this summer. Saying that we are a terrible team and then not trying to accumulate future assets tho has got to be the most Flames mindset of all time. We suck, lets tank for half of a season and not build for the future in any other way and expect to suddenly develop those core guys we so desperately need. Lol at bringing up NHL 2021 as if no bottom-5/10 teams in history have ever been sellers at the deadline. Literally happens every single year lol. Again, not saying sell everyone. But if you think Monahan and / or Backlund shouldn't be moved for the best package of futures, or that they will have no value on the market (they for sure do), then you're literally shooting our future team in the foot. Wouldn't you rather this god-awful team be a bit worse than the same bad and no extra potential for 2023 and beyond? It's a no brainer for me

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I believe Calgary will be open to trading any single player on the roster, but the ask on some guys will be really high. I have it like this:

Tier A - Guys that will require a very large overpayment to move.
General rule of thumb: They're young, on a good contract, and are bright spots or have been bright spots very recently:

Noah Hanifin, Juuso Valimaki, Dillon Dube, Andrew Mangiapane, Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk

Tier B - Guys that will require a better-than-average return to move.
General rule of thumb: Guys who are playing well, or have been key members of the organization. For example, guys you wouldn't move for just a first round pick in the 20 range and call it a day.

Chris Tanev, Johnny Gaudreau, Mikeal Backlund, Rasmus Andersson

Tier C - Guys that if a deal came up that had exact value, you pull the trigger. Example being, you'd be happy to move for a first round pick in the 20's and call it a day (not saying they're worth more or less than that, example, Monahan if the offer was a 1st + B prospect kind of thing).

Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Sam Bennett, Doc Ryan,

Tier D - Guys that have little to no value anyway.

Pretty much everyone else.

Funny I completely agree with this list, but in the other thread on the main board when I said Monahan for 1st+Denisenko and then Rasmus Andersson for Mantha you said I have an impressive ability to ruin every proposal lol. and Backlund+1st for Dumba, which looking back is pretty lopsided in our favour. Funny cause it sounds like my returns at least closely match your valuations but in actual trades you just change your mind / attitude somehow

 

[Volica]

Oh 100% we shouldn't just ship pieces for nothing and force it at the deadline, but big changes def have to be made this summer. Saying that we are a terrible team and then not trying to accumulate future assets tho has got to be the most Flames mindset of all time. We suck, lets tank for half of a season and not build for the future in any other way and expect to suddenly develop those core guys we so desperately need. Lol at bringing up NHL 2021 as if no bottom-5/10 teams in history have ever been sellers at the deadline. Literally happens every single year lol. Again, not saying sell everyone. But if you think Monahan and / or Backlund shouldn't be moved for the best package of futures, or that they will have no value on the market (they for sure do), then you're literally shooting our future team in the foot. Wouldn't you rather this god-awful team be a bit worse than the same bad and no extra potential for 2023 and beyond? It's a no brainer for me

As I mentioned. We really don't have to do anything to remain terrible. I've also advocated for trading all lesser pieces that can be traded.

I'm all for getting assets, but that's just not happening this deadline no matter how you slice it. There's not going to be people waiting in line to offer firsts + good prospects for Backlund or Monahan. Sure, every team sells. Please. Remind me the last time a bottom 5 team at the deadline turned over half its roster or traded 3-5 pieces for significant returns. It just doesn't happen, except when you're playing video games. Teams don't turn over that fast in real life.

Look, if I'm wrong and magically there are multiple teams looking to add these players, then they should do it... but the reality there won't be many teams looking to add Backlund's contract long term or Monahan's term at the deadline if they're competing. These are all offseason/draft floor type moves.

So as I said, trade everything that's UFA/RFA that can get something back. Protect your valuable pieces at the expansion, revisit core altering changes at that draft floor and in the offseason. It's not rocket science. We've got a roster that looks like it'll get us a bottom 5 pick anyway.

 

[Volica]

Funny I completely agree with this list, but in the other thread on the main board when I said Monahan for 1st+Denisenko and then Rasmus Andersson for Mantha you said I have an impressive ability to ruin every proposal lol. and Backlund+1st for Dumba, which looking back is pretty lopsided in our favour. Funny cause it sounds like my returns at least closely match your valuations but in actual trades you just change your mind / attitude somehow

Monahan trade is fine.
Rasmus for Mantha does nothing for us.
Backlund + First for Dumba is the definition moving in the wrong direction.

You literally shuffle deck chairs in all your proposals and never address anything that actually does anything for Calgary.

You forgot about adding RR from Anaheim, and signing Denault to a 25 million dollar deal

Like I've said, lay off the NHL 2021 for a bit; because there's about a 0 percent chance we're making 5-7 moves of this size.

 

[Kranix]

As I mentioned. We really don't have to do anything to remain terrible. I've also advocated for trading all lesser pieces that can be traded.

I'm all for getting assets, but that's just not happening this deadline no matter how you slice it. There's not going to be people waiting in line to offer firsts + good prospects for Backlund or Monahan. Sure, every team sells. Please. Remind me the last time a bottom 5 team at the deadline turned over half its roster or traded 3-5 pieces for significant returns. It just doesn't happen, except when you're playing video games. Teams don't turn over that fast in real life.

Look, if I'm wrong and magically there are multiple teams looking to add these players, then they should do it... but the reality there won't be many teams looking to add Backlund's contract long term or Monahan's term at the deadline if they're competing. These are all offseason/draft floor type moves.

So as I said, trade everything that's UFA/RFA that can get something back. Protect your valuable pieces at the expansion, revisit core altering changes at that draft floor and in the offseason. It's not rocket science. We've got a roster that looks like it'll get us a bottom 5 pick anyway.

Washington leading up to, and at the 2004 deadline traded Bondra, Jagr(for Anson Carter), Anson Carter, Lang, Gonchar, Nylander, and Grier,
received: two 1sts(Mike Green, jeff Schultz), two 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th, Thomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, Jared Aulin

 

[Volica]

Washington leading up to, and at the 2004 deadline traded Bondra, Jagr(for Anson Carter), Anson Carter, Lang, Gonchar, Nylander, and Grier,
received: two 1sts(Mike Green, jeff Schultz), two 2nds, a 3rd, a 4th, Thomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, Jared Aulin

Anything in a salary cap world?

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Monahan trade is fine.
Rasmus for Mantha does nothing for us.
Backlund + First for Dumba is the definition moving in the wrong direction.

You literally shuffle deck chairs in all your proposals and never address anything that actually does anything for Calgary.

You forgot about adding RR from Anaheim, and signing Denault to a 25 million dollar deal

Like I've said, lay off the NHL 2021 for a bit; because there's about a 0 percent chance we're making 5-7 moves of this size.

Definitely fair if you think Rasmus for Mantha does nothing but that is definitely a situation of opening one hole to close another and only cause we need scoring more than anything. Backlund+late 1st for Dumba tho, not sure how that possibly sets us back. Top pairing RD at age 26 for a 32-year-old C and late 1st? I can't imagine then saying no lol. We still could be competitive in 2-3 years, just gotta make sure we acquire assets that will have good value then. Backlund won't, late 1st is valuable but Dumba is a core top-pairing RD from Calgary lol that would be an incredible trade that tons and tons of Flames fans would do loll. Obviously not our early 1st but in the situation we add a late 1st+prospect for Monahan

 

[Mobiandi]

If we're not retaining, Monahan and Giordano aren't getting traded without an ugly cap dump coming back. No one is taking on $6 million liabilities to do us a favour

 

[Dack]

If we're not retaining, Monahan and Giordano aren't getting traded without an ugly cap dump coming back. No one is taking on $6 million dollar liabilities to do us a favour

As long as the dumps only have 1-2 years left after this year I have no issue with taking them on. In the past the Flames tried to take on bad contracts for picks (like the Ribeiro trade before he wouldn't waive). If they recognize we need to rebuild maybe they'll try and do stuff like Monahan for Connolly or Stralman + 1st + future assets. Or to Minnesota for Rask + 1st(s?) add the value of taking a cap dump to the value Monahan or Gaudreau or Giordano have on their own.

 

[Volica]

Definitely fair if you think Rasmus for Mantha does nothing but that is definitely a situation of opening one hole to close another and only cause we need scoring more than anything. Backlund+late 1st for Dumba tho, not sure how that possibly sets us back. Top pairing RD at age 26 for a 32-year-old C and late 1st? I can't imagine then saying no lol. We still could be competitive in 2-3 years, just gotta make sure we acquire assets that will have good value then. Backlund won't, late 1st is valuable but Dumba is a core top-pairing RD from Calgary lol that would be an incredible trade that tons and tons of Flames fans would do loll. Obviously not our early 1st but in the situation we add a late 1st+prospect for Monahan

Dumba is only signed another two seasons.
Then you'll have to pay him.

It's doing the opposite of what needs to be done in Calgary.

You laugh at it, all you want. Calgary has two, and only two options if they ever want a cup or be relevant again.

1) Get your first line centre from the trade market. Your Eichel that you laugh at.
2) Rebuild for the 2022 and 2023 draft.

In your proposals, all you do is extend the misery of this team and somehow think we're better.
Trading Mony for a first and a legit prospect is great, we'd do that 10/10 times.
Then flipping that pick and Backlund for Dumba, who may only stay here for 2 years...
Then signing players like Denault to backfill for Monahan and Backlund, and giving Bennett the 3rd line for good.

Like, we're just as bad of a team, just with more bloated contracts.

 

[Kranix]

Anything in a salary cap world?

Ottawa in 2011. Traded Campoli, Kovalev, Elliot, Ruutu, Kelly, Fisher, for a bunch of picks, Craig Anderson, and Ryan Potulny.

St. Louis in 06-07. Traded Guerin, Tkachuk, and Wideman at the dealine.

 

[Volica]

Ottawa in 2011. Traded Campoli, Kovalev, Elliot, Ruutu, Kelly, Fisher, for a bunch of picks, Craig Anderson, and Ryan Potulny.

St. Louis in 06-07. Traded Guerin, Tkachuk, and Wideman at the dealine.

I guess the Ottawa one would be closest, but if memory serves, Fischer was traded almost a month before the deadline and the rest of the guys traded there mostly returned late picks as UFA rentals (Something I am advocating for).

That said, this is all from a decade+ ago already.

 

[User1996]

Grabbing a bunch of mid-late round picks for Bennett, Rittich, Ryan, Leivo, and whoever else out of Nordstrom, Stone, Nesterov anyone wants for cheap taxi squad depth is about as good as we can hope for at this point. Save bigger moves until the offseason.