Speculation: Armchair GM Thread - 2020-2021 II

[Kranix]

My only real issue is losing on purpose, which is what Ottawa was allegedly doing and what other teams appeared to be trying really hard to do in the McDavid sweepstakes. Won't turn my nose up at a first overall pick - and this, with the Flames luck, would be the year they win the lotto.

If they can't win games despite their (best) efforts oh well...

I don't think anybody would ask the team to lose on purpose. I think people misinterpret cheering for losses as asking the team to throw games

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I don't think anybody would ask the team to lose on purpose. I think people misinterpret cheering for losses as asking the team to throw games

No, it's the equivalent of other teams putting out Nordstrom-Ryan-Leivo-Tanev-Nesterov on the top PP unit. Or (in one case) simply "rolling 4 lines even on special teams"

 

[User1996]

Wrong thread

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Retool plus Treliving modus operandi idea...

How desperate is Vancouver to shed cap this off season? Flames have some expiring and has some room. Canucks have demkos contract plus like 5-6 RFA.

Is it unreasonable to try and see if something like the following would be listened to?

Monahan + Valimaki for Petterssen + Roussell/Eriksson retained +?

Valimaki is ED exempt and helps fix/solidify the canucks top 4 for a long time. Horvat is basically Vancouver 1C so they just need Monahan to be their 2C. But the bigger aspect is the cap issues being fixed for next season.

Flames pay a very heavy price in Valimaki and Rousell/Eriksson but upgrade Monahan to a bona fide young 1C in Petterssen who needs a contract extension (hopefully long term). We might still suck enough for a shot at a high pick in 2022 but maybe not 2023.

Thoughts?

Do you honestly think that there is even a .001% chance Vancouver says yes to that?

 

[cheechoo]

Need a cleanout. We're priming to bottom out through 2022/2023. Leaving with (at least) one of Bedard, Michkov or Wright are so essential.

 

[Fig]

I heard benning is not very good but he is not that stupid

Absolutely. I looked at the Canucks salary situation for 2021-2022 on PC vs Mobile, and next year isn't as dire as this year where they have no room and are plugging everything basically through LTIR. I was just sniffing around some of the RFA names (which Treliving loves) and wondering if there was a possible way to try and convince them of a move where they take 3 step back and 4 steps forward. Essentially, a move where they basically shed two bad contracts, downgrade on C and upgrade on top 4, but then take all that cap, re-sign their RFA, retool their roster and aim to contend immediately from this point on (vs we still consider languishing for a season or two).

Perhaps not in the form I proposed, but my question really was whether or not there'd be a way to convince Vancouver to let EP40 shake free to us if we help them solve a ton of other issues.
- Dead cap contracts (multiple) in a flat cap situation
- Tons of RFA negotiations/difficult RFA negotiations with low cap space? (Although I almost feel like my memory is telling me Benning isn't bad at RFA but like Treliving is abysmal at UFA?)
- Aging blue line
- Aqualini cash concerns
- Expansion draft considerations

I'm not trying to be one of those where I'm just targeting a team's top player and offering nothing but scraps and not taking the other team's needs into account. I'm merely wondering if a generally non-available player might shake free to a package the Canucks cannot say no to. I miscalculated a few things though and yeah, I agree I'm back to fully unlikely even if we added Mangiapane and took on both Roussell and Eriksson for instance (and I think the cap is close). But ultimately, I was wondering if there was a non-offensive package that would get Vancouver to even think about it, hence the words, "Listen to".

The answer obviously is seemingly a resounding no, so that's the end of my question.

Do you honestly think that there is even a .001% chance Vancouver says yes to that?

Honestly? No. I never once thought there'd be a high chance. I was wondering if there's a slightly higher than a slim chance of it happening. That's why I used the words, "Listen to".

I also miscalculated the Vancouver cap situation which puts the concept much more into an entrenched no. I looked at cap friendly and saw $21MM in cap space, but also 14 RFA/UFA players without taking the taxi squad into account and wondered if a small opportunity was available. However, I thought the Demko extension wasn't factored in yet, so I thought it was less than $21MM. That's why I asked. I wondered if a downgrade from their 1C calibre player to a low end 1C/2C, a ED exempt blue chip and taking on 1-2 cap dumps would be enough to have the other GM listen.

Furthermore, I asked here rather than post on the main boards. I was wondering if any of the rest of you thought that maybe there's a possibility maybe he's not totally untouchable with the right package and wondering if there was a package that could get Vancouver to hesitate (not necessarily automatically accept). I'm indeed aiming for that .001% chance that Vancouver weirdly goes, "Hmm..." vs hanging up immediately after hearing EP40's name in the deal.

Besides, I thought you were lamenting on the main boards that no Flames fans have any backbone in trying to figure out how to retool/rebuild. I've been the one standing alone wondering if we'd make big deals with Canadian conference and/or Pacific conference teams and whether that theory has any merit.

History of hockey trades by general manager Brad Treliving - NHL Trade Tracker

I'm looking at this thinking there's weirdly an odd cluster of trades with specific teams, then a swing back and forth between Eastern Conference trades, then Western Conference trades. It seems like Western Conference moves are vogue right now if there's indeed a pattern. Furthermore, Treliving's biggest moves have always seemed to involve RFAs (Hamilton, Hanifin and Lindholm), so I was poking around that and wondered about EP40 because his name was on the previous page.


The other concept I was mulling in my head was whether Gaudreau to NYI makes sense. They have lost their top LW for the year and they might want to contend. It's kinda close ish to Gaudreau's home and a top line LW might be what they want (vs people trying to push the Philly thing and they have too many LW). I haven't thought of the assets back yet, just purely a concept I wonder what you guys think.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Absolutely. I looked at the Canucks salary situation for 2021-2022 on PC vs Mobile, and next year isn't as dire as this year where they have no room and are plugging everything basically through LTIR. I was just sniffing around some of the RFA names (which Treliving loves) and wondering if there was a possible way to try and convince them of a move where they take 3 step back and 4 steps forward. Essentially, a move where they basically shed two bad contracts, downgrade on C and upgrade on top 4, but then take all that cap, re-sign their RFA, retool their roster and aim to contend immediately from this point on (vs we still consider languishing for a season or two).

Perhaps not in the form I proposed, but my question really was whether or not there'd be a way to convince Vancouver to let EP40 shake free to us if we help them solve a ton of other issues.
- Dead cap contracts (multiple) in a flat cap situation
- Tons of RFA negotiations/difficult RFA negotiations with low cap space? (Although I almost feel like my memory is telling me Benning isn't bad at RFA but like Treliving is abysmal at UFA?)
- Aging blue line
- Aqualini cash concerns
- Expansion draft considerations

I'm not trying to be one of those where I'm just targeting a team's top player and offering nothing but scraps and not taking the other team's needs into account. I'm merely wondering if a generally non-available player might shake free to a package the Canucks cannot say no to. I miscalculated a few things though and yeah, I agree I'm back to fully unlikely even if we added Mangiapane and took on both Roussell and Eriksson for instance (and I think the cap is close). But ultimately, I was wondering if there was a non-offensive package that would get Vancouver to even think about it, hence the words, "Listen to".

The answer obviously is seemingly a resounding no, so that's the end of my question.



Honestly? No. I never once thought there'd be a high chance. I was wondering if there's a slightly higher than a slim chance of it happening. That's why I used the words, "Listen to".

I also miscalculated the Vancouver cap situation which puts the concept much more into an entrenched no. I looked at cap friendly and saw $21MM in cap space, but also 14 RFA/UFA players without taking the taxi squad into account and wondered if a small opportunity was available. However, I thought the Demko extension wasn't factored in yet, so I thought it was less than $21MM. That's why I asked. I wondered if a downgrade from their 1C calibre player to a low end 1C/2C, a ED exempt blue chip and taking on 1-2 cap dumps would be enough to have the other GM listen.

Furthermore, I asked here rather than post on the main boards. I was wondering if any of the rest of you thought that maybe there's a possibility maybe he's not totally untouchable with the right package and wondering if there was a package that could get Vancouver to hesitate (not necessarily automatically accept). I'm indeed aiming for that .001% chance that Vancouver weirdly goes, "Hmm..." vs hanging up immediately after hearing EP40's name in the deal.

Besides, I thought you were lamenting on the main boards that no Flames fans have any backbone in trying to figure out how to retool/rebuild. I've been the one standing alone wondering if we'd make big deals with Canadian conference and/or Pacific conference teams and whether that theory has any merit.

History of hockey trades by general manager Brad Treliving - NHL Trade Tracker

I'm looking at this thinking there's weirdly an odd cluster of trades with specific teams, then a swing back and forth between Eastern Conference trades, then Western Conference trades. It seems like Western Conference moves are vogue right now if there's indeed a pattern.


The other concept I was mulling in my head was whether Gaudreau to NYI makes sense. They have lost their top LW for the year and they might want to contend. It's kinda close ish to Gaudreau's home and a top line LW might be what they want (vs people trying to push the Philly thing and they have too many LW). I haven't thought of the assets back yet, just purely a concept I wonder what you guys think.

Oh 100% I completely respect and appreciate anyone being creative and going for those proposals and u saying this makes me appreciate it 1000x more cause you’re clearly in the same boat as all of us, desperate for a solution and spit-balling ideas that could finally make a real difference. I just think in this exact scenario there’s really no way Vancouver would do that, but definitely worth the inquiry on this board. Nothing is more annoying than people shutting down your outside the box 3 am solutions on a message board in a douchy way and I really didn’t mean to be that guy so I apologize. I am super interested in exploring Johnny to the Isles too, they have some really good young pieces (Wahlstrom, Beauvillier, picks, Holmstrom, maybe even Bellows/ Dal Colle/ Wilde/ Bolduc) and a package of some of those guys would really get the ball rolling. Still would rather sell Monahan Bennett and Bscklumd before Johnny tho but down to move him for the right offer for sure

 

[JPeeper]

Need a cleanout. We're priming to bottom out through 2022/2023. Leaving with (at least) one of Bedard, Michkov or Wright are so essential.

Got to be bottom 11 to get a shot at these guys with the new lottery happening after this year. Which if our current trajectory holds we'd be there and with even more selling could go lower.

Monahan and Gaudreau are surely gone before next season and if not, well they ain't helping anyway. Backlund is only getting older, Gio is completely cooked now so he can only be even worse next year. Lucic is a year older.

The only bright spots are Mangiapane and Dubes and neither are a superstar that will win us games.

I would like to see Tkachuk bounce back next year going into a contract year. He is way too valuable to this team to get rid of him or lose hope on him.

 

[Siignal]

If Lucic weren't on the books for another 2 years this would be much easier to manage. I honestly feel, as a franchise that we won't be able to do much until 2023-2024 when the only bad contract is Markstrom's (which could be a steal at that point, who knows). This takes us into the Tkachuk RFA zone, and lots of prospects will be coming out of bridge deals. Weird times.

 

[Bounces R Way]

At some point you have to get sick and tired of losing and do something about it. Hope this is a learning experience for the younger players on this team. Darryl definitely has his work cut out for him, anybody who thought he was going to come in and save our season has been streaming way too many Disney movies over COVID

I'm not always a look on the bright side guy; especially when it comes to the Flames, but hopefully this trainwreck season is enough to affect some real change and a good chance to draft a talented player. Simply not enough of them on this hockey team. Clearly some significant moves need to be made, and this answers in the room faint hope can die.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Neither do I think you need a tear it down to the wood 6 year Detroit Red Wings rebuild either necessarily. The Avalanche were a 48 point team in 2016-17. The Panthers have finally found some success. Islanders and Vegas got good really quick.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Neither do I think you need a tear it down to the wood 6 year Detroit Red Wings rebuild either necessarily. The Avalanche were a 48 point team in 2016-17. The Panthers have finally found some success. Islanders and Vegas got good really quick.

I totally agree we don’t need a 6 year rebuild but there is one thing in common about all 3 of those teams (not Vegas cause they never rebuilt they just built once in a unique situation we can’t expect) and it’s that they all DRAFTED a 1C and 1D. Bottom line is we need to build through the draft if we want to expect eventual success. Doesn’t have to be 7 years but also may take longer than 1-2. We gotta have the elite guys to compete and they aren’t gonna come overnight. Gotta embrace the rebuild (even if we wanna attempt a quicker one with our already solid supporting cast) just gotta be bad enough and sell enough til we get that core

 

[Fig]

Oh 100% I completely respect and appreciate anyone being creative and going for those proposals and u saying this makes me appreciate it 1000x more cause you’re clearly in the same boat as all of us, desperate for a solution and spit-balling ideas that could finally make a real difference. I just think in this exact scenario there’s really no way Vancouver would do that, but definitely worth the inquiry on this board. Nothing is more annoying than people shutting down your outside the box 3 am solutions on a message board in a douchy way and I really didn’t mean to be that guy so I apologize. I am super interested in exploring Johnny to the Isles too, they have some really good young pieces (Wahlstrom, Beauvillier, picks, Holmstrom, maybe even Bellows/ Dal Colle/ Wilde/ Bolduc) and a package of some of those guys would really get the ball rolling. Still would rather sell Monahan Bennett and Bscklumd before Johnny tho but down to move him for the right offer for sure

Going back to your 0.001% comment which I weirdly latched on, one thing I've always wondered is why NHL fans seemingly have an absurdly low hit rate on trade proposals. HF alone probably churns something like 1000 proposals a year, right? Getting a concept within 80% accuracy of a real trade has got to be close to that super low percentage, right? There's that saying that a thousand monkeys smacking typewriters at random for thousands of years should in theory randomly type Shakespeare or something, right? But HF has quite a few attempts at trade concepts that aren't pure random slapping at a keyboard. There's significant attempts to find ideas that work for both sides and the vast majority of those do not come to fruition. Even when a player wants out, it seems to me that the accuracy of the vast majority of fans getting the 1 of 30 teams correct is embarrassingly low. Then obviously even lower for those getting remotely close to the right combo of assets (if the value of those individuals are basically zero).

But, why is it so low? We've gotta be talking like less than 1% of educated guesses are even close to being the real trades with real explanations that many fans could kinda agree upon. Furthermore, in instances where fans get close, it's like the tip of the iceberg slamming onto the deck of the Titanic once it has already run into the iceberg.

That's what I've been poking around lately big picture wise. Fundamentally, somehow hockey fans are seemingly reading everything about trades incorrectly. Yes, you look at your team roster, where you want to go with it and then positions required and then you try and acquire some of those types of players. Beyond that, somehow the vast majority of hockey fans have it completely wrong at a fundamental level. That's seemingly why we're always blown away and surprised by the details of the vast majority of these deals. Everyone thinks we should just consummate Virtanen for Bennett already. But will it actually come true? I bet the vast majority of Albertans thought that the Lucic/Neal trade was impossible months prior to it actually happening.

I've been poking at some of the interconference trades with covid quarantine and expansion draft implications. Treliving is not scared of trading interconference and thus I wondered if he'd take that easy route to sop up the premium plus also sop up extra due to less quarantine. I've also been poking at Treliving's MO for loving RFA and buying at a discount so he can add his own value via negotiation which is why the Laine/Petterson names popped up more for me. We also seem to know that Treliving doesn't often over pay. I know someone will point out that we overpaid for Hamonic. But there was an article I read that said Treliving was working that deal for over a year. He only pulled the trigger because it was a price he was comfortable at at that time. Beyond that, I'm not even sure if I'm on the right path in terms of trying to get into Treliving's head and think like he would/predict what he would do.

Fantasy: Potential restricted free agents in 2021

Reinhart and Kyrou feels like others that might be high on Treliving's list to try and see if he can loosen these guys to see if he can attempt to pry them free vs sit around thinking that those guys are straight up unavailable. We know Treliving is always asking around and in the middle of everything. If all GMs were ranked on their rejection game, Treliving likely has a high score. While some of you guys may consider that as evidence that he is a failure because he should be measured by the deals he wins, not the ones he was ins on... IMO, I think it's an indication that with Tre, anything can happen. None of Treliving's moves have ever looked to be anything less than an attempt at a step forward to me. There's occasionally questions whether we're stepping in the right direction, but it's never seemingly in doubt that it's a bigger step away from our origin and a step closer to our destination. The problem is that with some of the pieces he acquired, we ended up flying to Anmore, BC in the same ish duration of time vs driving to Canmore, AB.

Tre has tried consistently to insulate this core. But if this core is proving this year to not be one worth insulating, I have no doubt that he will again consider overhauling literally close to half our roster (ie: 10+ roster players) by the time the Seattle expansion draft is over. When Treliving is pure business, he's pure business. IMO, that's the exciting stuff. From the Flames perspective, we basically know that no one is safe. Flames are completely open for business depending on price. I would not be surprised to see several big moves at the TDL and several bigger moves prior to ED. Treliving is in an all or nothing situation. I doubt he stands pat.

 

[Ainsy01]

“1C’s” averaging less than 1 hit a game (and less than Monahan according to ESPN which has Monahan with 39 in 37):
- Pettersson
- Barzal
- Backstrom
- Point
- Malkin
- Scheifele
- Karlsson
- Barkov
- Eichel
- Giroux/Couturier
- McKinnon
- Draisaitl
- Crosby

Just saying that’s an odd horse to hitch your wagon to given hits have almost 0 correlation with winning.

But they all score at above a 178th in the league pace. I just would like to see more heart from him thats all

 

[Ainsy01]

At this point, the flames are 100% sellers. Which is a bum year to be sellers, the draft is going to be a crap shoot because of lack of scouting, and the deadline is apparently going to be well - dead.

All Canadian divisional playoffs, once in a lifetime setup (presumably) and the flames cant even play .500 hockey. So disappointing.

Alas, do the Flames have any expiring pieces that could return a first round pick at the deadline? no. Rittich as a backup goaltender is worth about a 5th and Derek Ryan may be worth a 3rd with salary retention. Bennett could get a 2nd for sure, which would end the run of most dissapointing draft pick in flames history*. Thats about it.

Drafting Sam Bennett at 4th overall (while i think any GM would have at 4) has set the flames rebuild back 5 years. At 4, with his junior stats and workman like attitude, he should have developed into a number 1C that guys hate to play against, shelter Monahan into a pure scoring role that he could excel at. Now the coaches have been left shoving square pegs into round holes, much to there demise.

fml.

 

[Ainsy01]

I totally agree we don’t need a 6 year rebuild but there is one thing in common about all 3 of those teams (not Vegas cause they never rebuilt they just built once in a unique situation we can’t expect) and it’s that they all DRAFTED a 1C and 1D. Bottom line is we need to build through the draft if we want to expect eventual success. Doesn’t have to be 7 years but also may take longer than 1-2. We gotta have the elite guys to compete and they aren’t gonna come overnight. Gotta embrace the rebuild (even if we wanna attempt a quicker one with our already solid supporting cast) just gotta be bad enough and sell enough til we get that core

The thing about another 6 year rebuild, is it would be on top of the 8 year rebuild we are currently in. 2013 this thing started guys.

 

[Kranix]

No, it's the equivalent of other teams putting out Nordstrom-Ryan-Leivo-Tanev-Nesterov on the top PP unit. Or (in one case) simply "rolling 4 lines even on special teams"

That would be funny to see but I don't want that.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

The thing about another 6 year rebuild, is it would be on top of the 8 year rebuild we are currently in. 2013 this thing started guys.

Ya totally but as much as it really sucks it's a classic case of the sunk cost fallacy. We can't just not rebuild because we've failed one over the last 8 years. The last 8 years are a sunk cost, not like we can just stick with it and cut corners and expect to suddenly be a top team. We're clearly still so far away lol

 

[Body Checker]

I think Bennett's best value would be as an add-on to a Gaudreau trade. I think a Johnny-Sam package would get a pretty good return and increase Johnny's value as teams would be intrigued to add both to their lineup for different reasons.

 

[Ainsy01]

I think Bennett's best value would be as an add-on to a Gaudreau trade. I think a Johnny-Sam package would get a pretty good return and increase Johnny's value as teams would be intrigued to add both to their lineup for different reasons.

Definitely but that would also be 10+ million in cap space a team would need to account for

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I think Bennett's best value would be as an add-on to a Gaudreau trade. I think a Johnny-Sam package would get a pretty good return and increase Johnny's value as teams would be intrigued to add both to their lineup for different reasons.

I think this is especially true if flames are willing to retain salary or take back a bad contract. Otherwise there aren't many contenders who could make it work.

I would think Boston or Pittsburgh would both be highly interested in that package.

 

[BobColesNasalCavity]

Neither do I think you need a tear it down to the wood 6 year Detroit Red Wings rebuild either necessarily. The Avalanche were a 48 point team in 2016-17. The Panthers have finally found some success. Islanders and Vegas got good really quick.

Our cap situation isn’t that bad going forward compared to the albatrosses the Wings have been forced to carry for the last few years. That alone will allow us to rebuild or retool or whatever we want to call it quicker.

You can also keep a semi competitive team in the mean time without completely glassing the team to the bones like others have. It’ll help with the development of prospects as well as they won’t be forced to take big roles before their time on their own, but rather ease them in and have them play with veterans.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Gaudreau + 2nd for Lundell or like Kyrou+
Tkachuk for Byram
Monahan for late first
Tanev for first and prospect
Markström for anything
pick a FWD

take some salary dumps back as well.

Time for a rebuild. We need legit building blocks coming back if we are going to be good by 2023/24. That’s only two years with minimal revenues and honestly more fans might show up to watch the rebuild than the sad excuse for a team we put together this year.

 

[super6646]

Gaudreau + 2nd for Lundell or like Kyrou+
Tkachuk for Byram
Monahan for late first
Tanev for first and prospect
Markström for anything
pick a FWD

take some salary dumps back as well.

Time for a rebuild. We need legit building blocks coming back if we are going to be good by 2023/24. That’s only two years with minimal revenues and honestly more fans might show up to watch the rebuild than the sad excuse for a team we put together this year.

I don't see these trades as realistic. Kyrou is among the highest scorers in St. Louis and isn't going to do for a pending UFA, I doubt a 4th overall from 2019 is Tkachuk's value rn, Monahan has had 2 down seasons and has been the 3rd best ES scoring centre on a bad team so I'd be surprised if he even has value rn in this market, Tanev's contract will likely drive his return down significantly, Markstrom has a full NMC and teams aren't going to salivate for a goaltender with a 900SV% who has 5 years of term left.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I don't see these trades as realistic. Kyrou is among the highest scorers in St. Louis and isn't going to do for a pending UFA, I doubt a 4th overall from 2019 is Tkachuk's value rn, Monahan has had 2 down seasons and has been the 3rd best ES scoring centre on a bad team so I'd be surprised if he even has value rn in this market, Tanev's contract will likely drive his return down significantly, Markstrom has a full NMC and teams aren't going to salivate for a goaltender with a 900SV% who has 5 years of term left.

well you are also the most pessimistic person I’ve ever met so you also have to account for that as well. I agree we might be stuck with Markström. You might be right about Monahan but I firmly believe in the rest. They might not work with contracts/cap etc but I don’t think they are unfair asks based on their pedigrees.