TSN: Andreas Johnsson declined offer

[GoldiFox]

Sure. But it depends on McKeown. Is he ready for a bottom pairing RHD role?

Impossible to say. McKeown has 10 games of NHL experience and is unlikely to ever get a shot in Carolina. Based on AHL stats one would be hopeful that he could step into that role. McKeown is a +64 in the AHL over the past 2 years. Solid two-way contributor, no glaring flaws.

 

[Habs Halifax]

yes, it does make a Kadri trade more likelier but it's not the end of the world.

But I don't see how the team giving out of the OS doesn't want Johnsson for multiple years.

2 years is the least likely option since the Leafs have the space for the 2nd year + you're taking him to 1 year from UFA status with him holding arbitration rights again.

Lets face it, if the Leafs didn't have cap trouble, they wouldn't be cheap with Johnsson and would keep him. Cap issues this season will be tough to manage around and something has to give.

I guess the point was it don't matter if it's 1 year or 4 years in term with anybody signing Johnsson to an offer sheet. The Leafs simply can't afford to pay Johnsson what he wants to be paid and the problem is the next season in terms of cap space.

My guess is Gardiner, Marleau, and one of Johnsson or Kapanen are gone. I think they would like to move Zaitsev as well but he is the only RD and that contract is not easy to move. I don't see Kadri being moved cause they still want to be strong up the middle. Nylander is another but doubt any team gives the Leafs what they would want in return.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Lets face it, if the Leafs didn't have cap trouble, they wouldn't be cheap with Johnsson and would keep him. Cap issues this season will be tough to manage around and something has to give.

I guess the point was it don't matter if it's 1 year or 4 years in term with anybody signing Johnsson to an offer sheet. The Leafs simply can't afford to pay Johnsson what he wants to be paid and the problem is the next season in terms of cap space.

Paying people what they want instead of what they've earned based on comparables is how you get into cap trouble in the first place. There's no strong argument for giving Johnsson much more than he was offered.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Fair enough.

Is McKeown NHL ready? I see he's out of waiver eligibility this fall

Sure. But it depends on McKeown. Is he ready for a bottom pairing RHD role?

It's hard to say. He hasn't had any chance to crack the Canes lineup seeing as we are loaded on RHD with Pesce, Hamilton, Faulk, TVR.

He's 23 and playing well for a team that's in the AHL finals. He deserves a shot at a bottom 6 role but he's only played 10 NHL games so I can't tell you if he would thrive or not given that opportunity.

 

[Liferleafer]

Why are the Leafs against adding grade A prospects who will help their cap troubles on ELC in the coming years? This trade addresses a few things. It unloads salary on the forward side of things and opens up room to improve the D while they get to draft a very good prospect with the 8th pick. Scoring is not the problem. Building a better D and creating cap space to do it is. The cup window is 5-7 years, not 2 years. The 8th OA pick does fit the Leafs needs in terms of inserting a top talent on a cheap contract for at least 3 years.

I do agree however, that the Leafs should get more. Kadri is almost worth the 8th OA pick alone by himself. Lucic for one year (when he was trending well) returned the 13th OA and Jones who was flipped for another late 1st. Kadri plays center and has a very good contract. Coming off a disappointing year but that has more to do with playing 3rd line minutes.

The bolded is what i was saying. I have no issue adding prospects, but the value overall isn't close.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Paying people what they want instead of what they've earned based on comparables is how you get into cap trouble in the first place. There's no strong argument for giving Johnsson much more than he was offered.

There is no right number. It's a negotiation and AAV's projected based on future inflation. We have to look at it from both the team and agent sides of things. It's the agents job to get Johnsson as much as he can and the Leafs need to be frugal with their cap space.

Getting into cap trouble was giving Marleau the 3rd year in term and giving Zaitsev that stupid contract. Nylander should of been flipped for a young stud at RD before they gave him that contract. Kind of like the Drouin for Sergachev deal.

 

[justafan22]

It's hard to say. He hasn't had any chance to crack the Canes lineup seeing as we are loaded on RHD with Pesce, Hamilton, Faulk, TVR.

He's 23 and playing well for a team that's in the AHL finals. He deserves a shot at a bottom 6 role but he's only played 10 NHL games so I can't tell you if he would thrive or not given that opportunity.

Thanks.

I'd do the deal then.

 

[3074326]

Nvm

 

[4thline]

The Sabres 2nd is far better than the Leafs would get if the Canes offer sheeted in that 3-4 mil range. McKeown + Canes 2nd would be it.

But is it better than pick 30/31 as offered by the Sabres fan? I'm not sure that it is

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Thanks.

I'd do the deal then.

He's kind of the 'under the radar' D prospect that gets overshadowed by Bean, Fleury and when we had Fox. I think he can be a good contributor. Not exceptional at anything in particular but solid all-round and he is an Ontario boy that played in Toronto growing up and in Kingston in the OHL so there's probably a good fit there.

 

[TS Quint]

Paying people what they want instead of what they've earned based on comparables is how you get into cap trouble in the first place. There's no strong argument for giving Johnsson much more than he was offered.

I’d agree with that. The Leafs probably came in a little light on the pay but offered him an incentive of 4 years. The downside is going to arbitration where the contract would be a fair price, probably more than offered, for 2 years. It’s not a big downside and the Leafs need to try and find a money saving deal on more players.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

But is it better than pick 30/31 as offered by the Sabres fan? I'm not sure that it is

Yeah, I guess that's fair. I'm not giving up a 1st rounder for AJ so if they're willing to do that then go for it I suppose.

 

[4thline]

Yeah, I guess that's fair. I'm not giving up a 1st rounder for AJ so if they're willing to do that then go for it I suppose.

What about meeting in the middle, McKeown + NYR 2nd for Johnsson and STL 4th?

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

What about meeting in the middle, McKeown + NYR 2nd for Johnsson and STL 4th?

I'm not a guru when it comes to finessing draft picks and their values. I just kind of look at the floor and the ceiling of things.

If Carolina offer sheets AJ in the $3-4 million range and the Leafs don't match then they get Carolina 2020 2nd. So let's say that's the floor. I'm not prepared to give up a 1st so that's kind of where my ceiling is at. McKeown + Car 2019 2nd is my initial offer so small + / - on that ballpark is fine with me.

 

[Pyrophorus]

Lol wats all this offersheet talk on leafs players but none other team players lol...

They truly want the worst for us.

 

[Pyrophorus]

The Sabres 2nd is far better than the Leafs would get if the Canes offer sheeted in that 3-4 mil range. McKeown + Canes 2nd would be it.

Wow, 20g scorers are junk....

 

[Martin Skoula]

There is no right number. It's a negotiation and AAV's projected based on future inflation. We have to look at it from both the team and agent sides of things. It's the agents job to get Johnsson as much as he can and the Leafs need to be frugal with their cap space.

Getting into cap trouble was giving Marleau the 3rd year in term and giving Zaitsev that stupid contract. Nylander should of been flipped for a young stud at RD before they gave him that contract. Kind of like the Drouin for Sergachev deal.

Sure but there's literally no basis for asking for anything starting with a 4. It would be absolutely unheard of and a precedent setting contract for all future RFAs. We know for a fact the Leafs side is being at least reasonable with their offer as it's exactly in the ballpark of what most predictive models expect Johnsson to be worth.

If someone wants to overpay Johnsson 2+ mil on an offersheet and have to carry that new meta over to all their future middle-6 RFAs, more power to them.

No argument about Marleau and Zaitsev, you shouldn't let a senile person drive a very expensive front office. Nylander might be a trade worth looking down the line but it's way too premature for that.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Wow, 20g scorers are junk....

What? No one said that. But if the Canes did offer sheet AJ and the Leafs decline because they can't afford to match then they get the Canes 2020 2nd round pick. That's the floor for negotiations for the Leafs as the bare minimum they would get for losing AJ. There's a pretty big gap between a 2020 2nd and 2019 1st. So you get the 2nd that you were going to get but you get it this year and you get a solid young RHD that is ready to play in your bottom pairing.

 

[hamzarocks]

Why the 2020 pick?

If the canes offersheet AJ they pay their picks next year and on. They pay him 4ish million and we get back a 2020 2nd if we don't match the contract

 

[Batrous]

What? No one said that. But if the Canes did offer sheet AJ and the Leafs decline because they can't afford to match then they get the Canes 2020 2nd round pick. That's the floor for negotiations for the Leafs as the bare minimum they would get for losing AJ. There's a pretty big gap between a 2020 2nd and 2019 1st. So you get the 2nd that you were going to get but you get it this year and you get a solid young RHD that is ready to play in your bottom pairing.

Wouldn't it have to be a 2019 2nd round pick from the Hurricanes?

 

[Batrous]

Wouldn't it have to be a 2019 2nd round pick from the Hurricanes?

If they offer sheeted him today

 

[ToDavid]

I'm not too worried about Johnsson. He'll have to file for arbitration by July 5th (which he will likely do) after which he can't negotiate any offer sheets. That's a short window while most teams will be worrying about the big fish.

At arbitration and he'll get something a bit above these offers. Around $2.5-3 million over 2 years and $2-2.5 over 1 year, which is where his comps put him.

Kapanen will be the more interesting contract.

 

[4thline]

I'm not a guru when it comes to finessing draft picks and their values. I just kind of look at the floor and the ceiling of things.

If Carolina offer sheets AJ in the $3-4 million range and the Leafs don't match then they get Carolina 2020 2nd. So let's say that's the floor. I'm not prepared to give up a 1st so that's kind of where my ceiling is at. McKeown + Car 2019 2nd is my initial offer so small + / - on that ballpark is fine with me.

I was thinking on the premise of Johnsson being traded at the draft, OS stops being an option
-Canes offer 59+ McKeown -Leafs decline
-Sabres offer 31
-Leafs counter to Canes 36+McKeown - Canes decline
-Leafs and Canes talk, reach compromise of 37+Mckeown for Johnsson + ~118

 

[Tripod]

You can't OS until July 1....so after the draft. All OS are for 2020 picks and beyond.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Sure but there's literally no basis for asking for anything starting with a 4. It would be absolutely unheard of and a precedent setting contract for all future RFAs. We know for a fact the Leafs side is being at least reasonable with their offer as it's exactly in the ballpark of what most predictive models expect Johnsson to be worth.

If someone wants to overpay Johnsson 2+ mil on an offersheet and have to carry that new meta over to all their future middle-6 RFAs, more power to them.

No argument about Marleau and Zaitsev, you shouldn't let a senile person drive a very expensive front office. Nylander might be a trade worth looking down the line but it's way too premature for that.

Galchenyuk got $4.9M as a 22 year old coming off a 44 pts season and 17 goals. He did have a better season the year prior though. Johnsson is 24 and two years older along the process so $4M is a good high starting point based on what he as accomplished if you ask me. This comes 2 years after Galchenyuk too so inflation needs to be factored in.

Sounds like another Nylander situation. Leafs fans say no way he is worth $8M and should not get anymore than $6M and it ends up somewhere in the middle.

What is the fair AAV? I say one year at $3.25M. Can the Leafs fit this in? No idea until we get to see about Marner, Marleau, and Kapanen.