Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[ACC1224]

I think that's because a decision he made like signing Marleau had an impact on their season this year, because Dubas needed to trade their 2020 1st round pick just to get rid of his contract.

Yes I know that Dubas is responsible for actually making that trade, so I'm just using Marleau signing in Toronto under Lamoriello as an example.

Needed should be chose to.
How did Marleau or the missing 1st impact this season?

 

[IPS]

Didn't Lou's arrival coincide with adding guys like Matthews and Marner to the roster? Do you think those guys might have had something to do with improved performance? There were some other changes too that Lou had nothing to do with that were quite relevant, if you're not aware of these things you should just stop before further embarrassing yourself.

"We were not a 103 point team under Keefe"

*Team was literally on pace for 103 points under Keefe*

I don't think he can further embarrass himself, already sunk low enough.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Needed should be chose to.
How did Marleau or the missing 1st impact this season?

If Marleau was never signed to start with chances are Toronto might still have their 2020 1st round pick. So it's extra capital Dubas could have had to use at the draft to either move up or move down. Plus maybe he could have used it in a trade for something else to help them like when he traded their 1st round pick in 2019 for Jake Muzzin.

 

[ACC1224]

If Marleau was never signed to start with chances are Toronto might still have their 2020 1st round pick. So it's extra capital Dubas could have had to use at the draft to either move up or move down. Plus maybe he could have used it in a trade for something else to help them like when he traded their 1st round pick in 2019 for Jake Muzzin.

Yep, giving it away had implications for sure.
With being cap maxed I don't see how a Muzzin scenario could have been repeated.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep, giving it away had implications for sure.
With being cap maxed I don't see how a Muzzin scenario could have been repeated.

What if he still had their 1st round pick that could have been traded at the draft for a player they could get for the 2020-21 season?

 

[Stephen]

A few things consider about this Covid induced cap Armageddon is while the Leafs will be struggling with a stagnant cap ceiling for the next few years, we have our star players figured out at forward position. Rielly needs to be kept and a decision will need to come for Andersen and Hyman. But I can also see some potential silver linings.

First one being, the pay days that UFA and RFA players are looking for will likely not be there, so I could see some deflation happening to the salary demands of a number one defenseman or starting goalie, which might make it easier to fill out the roster.

Secondly, I could see some players looking for wait and see deals in year 2 and 3. So maybe they just want to go somewhere like Toronto to play with gifted players, to pad their stats and be on their way after 2022-23.

Thirdly, I could see Ontario based players wanting to come back to a Canadian city while the US is going through some hard times.

It’s definitely a challenging time but I think it can be managed the right way to our advantage.

 

[LeafsNation75]

A few things consider about this Covid induced cap Armageddon is while the Leafs will be struggling with a stagnant cap ceiling for the next few years, we have our star players figured out at forward position. Rielly needs to be kept and a decision will need to come for Andersen and Hyman. But I can also see some potential silver linings.

First one being, the pay days that UFA and RFA players are looking for will likely not be there, so I could see some deflation happening to the salary demands of a number one defenseman or starting goalie, which might make it easier to fill out the roster.

Secondly, I could see some players looking for wait and see deals in year 2 and 3. So maybe they just want to go somewhere like Toronto to play with gifted players, to pad their stats and be on their way after 2022-23.

Thirdly, I could see Ontario based players wanting to come back to a Canadian city while the US is going through some hard times.

It’s definitely a challenging time but I think it can be managed the right way to our advantage.

I'm not saying Toronto was planning on signing a big name UFA defenseman like Pietrangelo even if Covid-19 never happened. However since that's the new reality do you think there will be the same amount of teams who will still overpay for him once this season is over, assuming he doesn't re-sign with the Blues and becomes a UFA?

 

[NinjaKick]

So dubas signing tavares is credit for dubas just because he was the gm but our results getting worse since dubas taking over are not his fault? Just trying to make sure I understand your position.

After the coaching change, we went on a role for 24 games and won 17 of those games. (Pace of ~116 points)

The following 23 games we returned to normal and won 11 games. We were below .500 for almost half the games keefe coached us for. (Pace ~78 points)

I would bet money that most teams that change coaches tend to do well for a bit before falling back to their old ways.

We were not a 103 point team with keefe.

There was no need to trade a 1st to get rid of 1 year of Marleau. That was such bad asset management that i was astonished when the trade was made.

Before we got muzzin (17-18) we allowed 232 GA. The following season dubas trades for muzzin and somehow we let even more goals in (251). This year we were even worse defensively, allowing 227 in just 70 games.

How is it that dubas can trade a 1st for a dman, something lou never did, and yet we are actively getting worse defensively?

Also, spending to the cap is simply bad. How do you rationalize having no money to sign a decent back up? We wasted so many points this year playing with garbage for back ups.

Seems like none of dubas' moves work out.

"There was no need to trade a 1st to get rid of 1 year of Marleau. That was such bad asset management that i was astonished when the trade was made."

I gotta disagree with that brother... the trade opened up room and allowed us to make some crucial moves. Cap space might be the most important asset to a team imo. especially these days with the cap in limbo.

also in 2006, Lou dumped Malakhov plus a 1st round pick to SJ for $3.6 million in cap space
Devils trade Malakhov, first-round pick to Sharks for two players - TheHockeyNews

 

[Stephen]

I'm not saying Toronto was planning on signing a big name UFA defenseman like Pietrangelo even if Covid-19 never happened. However since that's the new reality do you think there will be the same amount of teams who will still overpay for him once this season is over, assuming he doesn't re-sign with the Blues and becomes a UFA?

Some teams will be handcuffed by real world budgets so I could see some salary deflation across the board. Not sure about individuals like Pietrangelo though.

 

[Menzinger]

It's hard to compare dubas and lou when you consider that lou brought us from literally last in the league to a franchise record in points within 4 years.

Within 2 years dubas has managed to see us regress to just a playoff bubble team with no cap space and a hurt prospect pool.

When we had lou in 2017-18, we finished 7th league wide while the islanders finished 22nd!

The following season the islanders get lou and we get dubas. We end up finishing 7th again, less points than year before, while the islanders were 5th.

This past season lou and his islanders finished 2 spots ahead of dubas and the leafs again, 11 vs 13.

Each season dubas has been in charge we have gotten roughly 5 points less/season.

Lou brought the islanders from 80 to 103 points.

How is it possible that Lou, who apparently over pays everyone and has no clue what hes doing, is able to take a bottom 10 team and out perform dubas each of the last 2 seasons?

I think using raw point totals as the main way to evaluate a GMs abilities is flawed.

I will certainly give Lou credit for his good moves (i thought his first season with the Leafs was definitely his best ad far as deceison making went), for example the Leafs jump to the playoffs was hardly soley the reault ofnhis moves, though obviously Andersen helped a fsir amount.

The 105 point season got boosted by a record high number of shootout wons, whoch is hardly under the control of the GM.

I don't think Lou is or was a terrie GM, but i think he makes a fsir number of very problematic decisions that seem tonget skipped over by some folks

 

[LeafsNation75]

I think using raw point totals as the main way to evaluate a GMs abilities is flawed.

I will certainly give Lou credit for his good moves (i thought his first season with the Leafs was definitely his best ad far as deceison making went), for example the Leafs jump to the playoffs was hardly soley the reault ofnhis moves, though obviously Andersen helped a fsir amount.

The 105 point season got boosted by a record high number of shootout wons, whoch is hardly under the control of the GM.

I don't think Lou is or was a terrie GM, but i think he makes a fsir number of very problematic decisions that seem tonget skipped over by some folks

I just want to know why people like Lou deserve credit for the Leafs 105 points in the 2017-18 season, however Dubas deserves the blame for them dropping to 100 points in the 2018-19 season and none of that doesn't fall on Babcock who coached them during those games.

 

[Menzinger]

Didn't Lou's arrival coincide with adding guys like Matthews and Marner to the roster? Do you think those guys might have had something to do with improved performance? There were some other changes too that Lou had nothing to do with that were quite relevant, if you're not aware of these things you should just stop before further embarrassing yourself.

Hyman, Marner, Nylander, Dermott all in the system and Matthews was the consensus 1st overall.

Lou definitely made some good moves, but he entered a very advantageous position

 

[LeafsNation75]

Hyman, Marner, Nylander, Dermott all in the system and Matthews was the consensus 1st overall.

Lou definitely made some good moves, but he entered a very advantageous position

The funny thing is Lou had nothing to do with those players already being in the system.

Yes Lou was the GM who drafted Matthews 1st overall, however anyone would have done that in his position.

Also let's remember it was Dubas who traded for Hyman's rights from the Panthers when he was the CO-GM along with Mark Hunter, since he was in charge of trades and UFA signings.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Blaming Lou since he left them after the 2017-18 season would be stupid.

However won't some people still use Babcock because he did start this past season as the coach, so his 9-10-4 record did play a part in Toronto having to play in the qualifying round against to Columbus just to make the playoffs, instead of finishing with a better record like Tampa Bay or Boston who finished in the top 4 in the Eastern Conference and are automatically in the playoffs.

I don’t think it would of mattered, Leafs needed 12 more points to bump, Tampa or Boston
So would need to be 15-4-4 instead of 9-10-4

 

[LeafsNation75]

I don’t think it would of mattered, Leafs needed 12 more points to bump, Tampa or Boston
So would need to be 15-4-4 instead of 9-10-4

Either way Babcock still had an effect on the Leafs season this year, so you can't dismiss them going 9-10-4 which got him fired.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Either way Babcock still had an effect on the Leafs season this year, so you can't dismiss them going 9-10-4 which got him fired.

No not going to debate firing Babcock, I was just pointing out it would of taken an amazing start (15-4-4) to avoid playing in a play-in, so you can’t dismiss that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

No not going to debate firing Babcock, I was just pointing out it would of taken an amazing start (15-4-4) to avoid playing in a play-in, so you can’t dismiss that.

I understand that. However you can not deny Babcock starting the season 9-10-4 did play a factor into Toronto ending up where they did for the play in round.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I understand that. However you can not deny Babcock starting the season 9-10-4 did play a factor into Toronto ending up where they did for the play in round.

Oh I thought I acknowledged that, when mentioning firing, if not then yes a factor.

 

[Gabriel426]

I understand that. However you can not deny Babcock starting the season 9-10-4 did play a factor into Toronto ending up where they did for the play in round.

If Babs didn't start the season as 9-10-4, he might still be the coach. If the record was 15-6-2, he would still be around.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think using raw point totals as the main way to evaluate a GMs abilities is flawed.

I will certainly give Lou credit for his good moves (i thought his first season with the Leafs was definitely his best ad far as deceison making went), for example the Leafs jump to the playoffs was hardly soley the reault ofnhis moves, though obviously Andersen helped a fsir amount.

The 105 point season got boosted by a record high number of shootout wons, whoch is hardly under the control of the GM.

I don't think Lou is or was a terrie GM, but i think he makes a fsir number of very problematic decisions that seem tonget skipped over by some folks

Lou made some really good moves and pretty much saved Dubas and Hunter faces with the Phil's trade, as he ended up getting Andersen with the 1st rounder and another 2nd rounder from SJ for Spaling. Getting Hanisey and McBackup. Trading away Dion without retention was awesome. Signing Kadri, Reilly, Hyman and Brown to very good contracts.
Not to mention getting all the picks for players at the TDL.
But he did trade away 2 2nds for Boyle and Turtleneck. Boyle trade can be justify as it was a sign of faith to the kids for that season but Turtleneck was very puzzling.
Lou also didn't solve the Dman issue for the Leafs despite having a lot of pieces, such as JVR, Bozak, and Komarov, as pending UFAs. Esp since signing Marleau in the 2nd season. Zai's contract is another puzzling, if the AVV is lower due to terms would be more acceptable. Lastly, Lou didn't get a deal done with Willie despite having a full year.
In Lou's 3 year, I would rate as follows.
1 year-Tank year, beside not being able to trade PAP at TDL, Lou was perfect. Esp how Lou answered Simmons question at his 1st press conf. He literally set the tone and culture at the press conf.
2nd year-The Beginning, once again, Lou was perfect, from Drafting Matthews, to getting McBackup then getting Boyle at the TDL. Even signing Martin was good due to protecting the rookies.
3rd year-Last Dance, literally all Lou's criticisms are in his third and final year. Marleau and Hainsey signings were questionable when they were signed as people worried about the 3rd yr of Marleau and wondered how good can a 36yrs old Dman be? Zai's renewal is another mixed bag. Couldn't or wouldn't trade any of the pending UFAs for a Dman, esp JVR. At that time, the Leafs got Willie, Marner, Brown, Hyman, Marleau, Leivo, Kap, AJ and Martin as wingers. Traded for Turtleneck at the deadline. Didn't manage to get Willie to sign his second deal.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Lou made some really good moves and pretty much saved Dubas and Hunter faces with the Phil's trade, as he ended up getting Andersen with the 1st rounder and another 2nd rounder from SJ for Spaling. Getting Hanisey and McBackup. Trading away Dion without retention was awesome. Signing Kadri, Reilly, Hyman and Brown to very good contracts.
Not to mention getting all the picks for players at the TDL.
But he did trade away 2 2nds for Boyle and Turtleneck. Boyle trade can be justify as it was a sign of faith to the kids for that season but Turtleneck was very puzzling.
Lou also didn't solve the Dman issue for the Leafs despite having a lot of pieces, such as JVR, Bozak, and Komarov, as pending UFAs. Esp since signing Marleau in the 2nd season. Zai's contract is another puzzling, if the AVV is lower due to terms would be more acceptable. Lastly, Lou didn't get a deal done with Willie despite having a full year.
In Lou's 3 year, I would rate as follows.
1 year-Tank year, beside not being able to trade PAP at TDL, Lou was perfect. Esp how Lou answered Simmons question at his 1st press conf. He literally set the tone and culture at the press conf.
2nd year-The Beginning, once again, Lou was perfect, from Drafting Matthews, to getting McBackup then getting Boyle at the TDL. Even signing Martin was good due to protecting the rookies.
3rd year-Last Dance, literally all Lou's criticisms are in his third and final year. Marleau and Hainsey signings were questionable when they were signed as people worried about the 3rd yr of Marleau and wondered how good can a 36yrs old Dman be? Zai's renewal is another mixed bag. Couldn't or wouldn't trade any of the pending UFAs for a Dman, esp JVR. At that time, the Leafs got Willie, Marner, Brown, Hyman, Marleau, Leivo, Kap, AJ and Martin as wingers. Traded for Turtleneck at the deadline. Didn't manage to get Willie to sign his second deal.

When Lou signed Kadri and Rielly to their current contracts it's not like they had a lot leverage to negotiate since that was after Toronto had finished last place overall. Plus if it wasn't for Dubas originally trading for Hyman's rights and giving him that 2 year ELC, Lou wouldn't have been able to re-sign him to his current contract.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Here is another major difference between Dubas and Lamoriello which no one has mentioned.

Lou didn't want to give Marner all the bonuses possible on his ELC, despite Marner being the 4th overall pick in 2015 and having already started those negotiations with Dubas and Hunter when they were the CO-GM's.

Dubas had no problems giving Rasmus Sandin those same bonuses on his ELC and he was the 29th overall pick in the 2018 draft.

Maybe if Lou didn't need to set some example with Marner he would have signed for a little less last year, because it's something he never forgot what he did screwing him out of all those possible bonuses.

 

[hotpaws]

Here is another major difference between Dubas and Lamoriello which no one has mentioned.

Lou didn't want to give Marner all the bonuses possible on his ELC, despite Marner being the 4th overall pick in 2015 and having already started those negotiations with Dubas and Hunter when they were the CO-GM's.

Dubas had no problems giving Rasmus Sandin those same bonuses on his ELC and he was the 29th overall pick in the 2018 draft.

Maybe if Lou didn't need to set some example with Marner he would have signed for a little less last year, because it's something he never forgot what he did screwing him out of all those possible bonuses.

according to CapFriendly Sandin didn't get any potential bonus money unlike Marner who got a portion of his so i guess he'll be even more pissed than MM

 

[Gabriel426]

When Lou signed Kadri and Rielly to their current contracts it's not like they had a lot leverage to negotiate since that was after Toronto had finished last place overall. Plus if it wasn't for Dubas originally trading for Hyman's rights and giving him that 2 year ELC, Lou wouldn't have been able to re-sign him to his current contract.

Agree. I am not taking credits away from Dubas on the Hyman trade but more just listing what Lou’s done as Leafs GM.
As I pointed out, Lou literally did a perfect job in his first two years but he did horrible in his third year.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Agree. I am not taking credits away from Dubas on the Hyman trade but more just listing what Lou’s done as Leafs GM.
As I pointed out, Lou literally did a perfect job in his first two years but he did horrible in his third year.

Like I said before Lou had the benefit of signing Rielly and Kadri to contract extensions after they just finished last place overall, so they didn't have any negotiating leverage. However starting on July 1, 2017 he had all that time to sign Nylander to a contract extension before his ELC expired on July 1, 2018 and becoming an RFA, which he failed to do. I know that Lou was no longer the GM as of April 30, 2018, although he still had all that time to get something done with Nylander.