Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[Gary Nylund]

There's no assumption about the "young guns" not maturing to become better players. The assumption is that they will mature and become the veteran leadership. There's an assumption about how difficult it's going to be to replicate and maintain the support depth those teams had in the present reality using budget signs, elcs and league minimum bodies. We were all were assuming that the ever growing cap would eventually be our friend and allow some quality support depth to accumulate without the scrambling to spackle over the holes created by off season departures. The flat cap has delayed that and made more departures in the 2020 off season seem inevitable.

Point is that when the young guns are better, the supporting cast is less important. Pay them more money, pay the rest less but that doesn't mean that we're worse off with that scenario which is why I dispute the idea that our best chance was when they were on ELC's. I like our roster, I think our supporting cast rocks and I can't wait to see what they can do when at full strength!

 

[deletethis]

You seem to think its easy to win and something you can buy your 2ay into doing.

You seem to believe you're a mind reader. It isn't easy to win and it isn't easy to buy a win. But there are optimal times to be spend thrifts at the trade deadline. I think that time was when the young stars were on ELCs. It was a squandered opportunity and probably the best opportunity until hopefully a few years from now when some higher quality youth (Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, one of the young goalies, others) rises to NHL regulars and can fully support a contending team at a low cap cost.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You seem to believe you're a mind reader. It isn't easy to win and it isn't easy to buy a win. But there are optimal times to be spend thrifts at the trade deadline. I think that time was when the young stars were on ELCs. It was a squandered opportunity and probably the best opportunity until hopefully a few years from now when some higher quality youth (Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, one of the young goalies, others) rises to NHL regulars and can fully support a contending team at a low cap cost.

Nope. It would have been unwise to piss away future assets in an impatient attempt to win right away. In this cap era, even the very best teams in the league have no more than a 10-15% shot of winning it all which makes gambling on any one season a dumb move. Best to understand that we're stacked with young talent so build a quality team slowly and surely with the goal of being a contender for the foreseeable future.

 

[deletethis]

Nope. It would have been unwise to piss away future assets in an impatient attempt to win right away. In this cap era, even the very best teams in the league have no more than a 10-15% shot of winning it all which makes gambling on any one season a dumb move. Best to understand that we're stacked with young talent so build a quality team slowly and surely with the goal of being a contender for the foreseeable future.

After the (hopefully) upcoming playoffs, the Leafs have 4 more years' of control of Matthews and Nylander. Don't blink. This slow build to a championship calibre team will be over faster than we think.

 

[Gary Nylund]

After the (hopefully) upcoming playoffs, the Leafs have 4 more years' of control of Matthews and Nylander. Don't blink. This slow build to a championship calibre team will be over faster than we think.

So 5 years altogether then in addition to the last couple we already had plus many more to come if they resign here (and elite players tend to stick with the teams that drafted them, especially if those teams are good). Boy I sure am glad we didn't piss away our future just to increase our cup odds from 4% to 6% or whatever a few years ago.

Our roster is stacked as of right now. You never know, this could be the year!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Hopefully taking them straight to UFA dollars pays off.

They didn't get straight to UFA dollars. They got contracts (that buy UFA years) that are consistent with past post-ELC contracts, as two of the best young players in the entire cap era.

 

[yubbers]

Anyone see Tim and Sid?

 

[Beaumaris]

So 5 years altogether then in addition to the last couple we already had plus many more to come if they resign here (and elite players tend to stick with the teams that drafted them, especially if those teams are good). Boy I sure am glad we didn't piss away our future just to increase our cup odds from 4% to 6% or whatever a few years ago.

Our roster is stacked as of right now. You never know, this could be the year!

Not without reliable goalie.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Not without reliable goalie.

I believe Freddie's more than capable of playing well for 8 weeks or so. Well see.

 

[Cleetus]

I believe Freddie's more than capable of playing well for 8 weeks or so. Well see.

if he gets in a groove watch out! I think it will be a fun summer!

 

[Beaumaris]

I believe Freddie's more than capable of playing well for 8 weeks or so. Well see.

8 weeks are not a problem,it’s the last 2 minutes of the 3rd. Period
that worries me.

 

[67Leafs67]

You seem to think its easy to win and something you can buy your 2ay into doing. Ask the Caps if its the quick fix road or the long haul that pays off in the end...

The only people that expected us to win a cup within the first few years of a rebuild are sadly mistaken and misinformed.

I definitely agree with these sentiments. As attractive as it seems to build a 'super team' for one or two seasons, the reality of the cap-era NHL, with four rounds of playoffs to be won, is that, even the very, very best teams, the 'super teams' like Tampa Bay last season, are probably looking at about a 15-25% chance of winning the Cup any given year. Those are the best teams, and they are 3 or 4 times more likely to lose than win!

If you throw all your eggs into one basket, and trade away all your futures for a single run, you will end up losing that season, and being more likely to lose in the future, as you no longer have the necessary assets to build effectively around your core group of 3-4 elite stars. That's not to say you should never make a deadline deal to improve the team or something...but the Leafs need Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, etc, for the ten year outlook more than they needed a few extra depth pieces in 2017 & 2018.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I definitely agree with these sentiments. As attractive as it seems to build a 'super team' for one or two seasons, the reality of the cap-era NHL, with four rounds of playoffs to be won, is that, even the very, very best teams, the 'super teams' like Tampa Bay last season, are probably looking at about a 15-25% chance of winning the Cup any given year. Those are the best teams, and they are 3 or 4 times more likely to lose than win!

If you throw all your eggs into one basket, and trade away all your futures for a single run, you will end up losing that season, and being more likely to lose in the future, as you no longer have the necessary assets to build effectively around your core group of 3-4 elite stars. That's not to say you should never make a deadline deal to improve the team or something...but the Leafs need Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, etc, for the ten year outlook more than they needed a few extra depth pieces in 2017 & 2018.

In 2003 when the Maple Leafs were legit Stanley Cup contenders is when Pat Quinn made those trades at the deadline for Doug Gilmour, Owen Nolan, Glenn Wesley, and Phil Housley.

In 2004 when they were legit contenders again JFJ made those trades at the deadline for Brian Leetch and Ron Francis.

In 2003 the ended up losing in the first round and in 2004 they lost in the second round.

 

[stickty111]

Man was Hunter awful.
Han with more great analysis.

 

[Leafsfan74]

I've personally liked the trades Dubas has made, except maybe Josh Leivo at the time, though he had fallen out with Babcock for some reason and will probably never be a big difference maker.

The trade for Muzzin is his best, even as some were not happy with giving up a 1st round pick. Giving away a middle of the road 1st rounder for a guy who could potentially be your #1, at least 1A, and brings so much of what your team needs at the back end, is a prudent, if not spectacular trade. I didn't even follow him much as he plays on the West coast, but it was clear early on, he was the perfect pick up.

The Kadri trade will remain his most controversial, but I think it was a great return, which, even Kadri himself will probably agree; was forced on him by the second suspension. Kadri himself also believed the Leafs got full value for him in the CBC interview. The contributions of these two this post-season could really make a big difference. Barrie in particular, can bring an additional threat from the backend that just one timely setup or goal changes the post-season fortunes of the team. In the playoffs when everything is so final, this is his chance to really prove his value in this league.

The Clifford and Campbell trade is a good one, addressing two needs. More importantly in my eyes, Dubas illustrated that he is flexible in his thinking. Clifford brings a different look and he isn't one who will take a stupid penalty or get suspended while doing it. A smart forechecker, not a goon by any means. This could really be an asset in a long, grinding series. If he re-signs, it means Leafs see great value there and are willing to accept the 2nd round upgrade they would have to give up.

Until the team has playoff success, coaches, players and GM's will continue to be under pressure to perform, it comes with the territory. That should be the ultimate yardstick in which they are measured.

 

[Stamkos4life]

I hope dubas is feeling the heat. If we lose before we even get to the first round, KD needs to go

 

[biotk]

Win or lose this next game. Win or lose the series. Doesn't matter in the big scheme of things. It should be starting to become more evident that this team has structural problems for which there is no easy fix, and certainly won't come from within. Almost everyone knew that Babcock needed to put his ego aside and change his way. He didn't. The question is can Dubas put his ego aside and change?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Win or lose this next game. Win or lose the series. Doesn't matter in the big scheme of things. It should be starting to become more evident that this team has structural problems for which there is no easy fix, and certainly won't come from within. Almost everyone knew that Babcock needed to put his ego aside and change his way. He didn't. The question is can Dubas put his ego aside and change?

I really, really doubt it. He will go down with the ship before admitting a team of soft..small players can't win it all. Look at Nylander...its a playoff game and he is floating around in his zone like its game 13 of a regular season. If he doesn't want to bring his hardest in this type of scenario...bye...

I really hate guys with these "philosophies" that they won't venture away from. Look at Chayka....he messed up that team for a long time and just walked away.

 

[biotk]

I really, really doubt it. He will go down with the ship before admitting a team of soft..small players can't win it all.

Dubas has admitted before that his philosophy might be wrong and might need to be changed. Mirtle was saying a couple months ago that he thinks that Dubas and Shanahan recognize that this experiment hasn't worked out as planned. I think that acquiring Clifford and the 3 tough D Lebrun says they were after at the trade deadline show that they are not confident in the construction of their roster.

Will it happen? Probably not and I guess we will see before the next season starts. My guess is that there is a lot riding on this play in round.
If they manage to win it or lose it, but take it to 5 games, there will likely be little change.
If they lose it in 3 games, especially if they continue to get good goal-tending, then I have to assume that major changes would have to be made.

I think that the Leafs' best chances of winning a cup in the next 4 or 5 years results if they make major changes after getting swept here (and that is assuming that they don't win the lottery as their chances would still be 87.5% that they don't have a first round pick).

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

I've personally liked the trades Dubas has made, except maybe Josh Leivo at the time, though he had fallen out with Babcock for some reason and will probably never be a big difference maker.

The trade for Muzzin is his best, even as some were not happy with giving up a 1st round pick. Giving away a middle of the road 1st rounder for a guy who could potentially be your #1, at least 1A, and brings so much of what your team needs at the back end, is a prudent, if not spectacular trade. I didn't even follow him much as he plays on the West coast, but it was clear early on, he was the perfect pick up.

The Kadri trade will remain his most controversial, but I think it was a great return, which, even Kadri himself will probably agree; was forced on him by the second suspension. Kadri himself also believed the Leafs got full value for him in the CBC interview. The contributions of these two this post-season could really make a big difference. Barrie in particular, can bring an additional threat from the backend that just one timely setup or goal changes the post-season fortunes of the team. In the playoffs when everything is so final, this is his chance to really prove his value in this league.

The Clifford and Campbell trade is a good one, addressing two needs. More importantly in my eyes, Dubas illustrated that he is flexible in his thinking. Clifford brings a different look and he isn't one who will take a stupid penalty or get suspended while doing it. A smart forechecker, not a goon by any means. This could really be an asset in a long, grinding series. If he re-signs, it means Leafs see great value there and are willing to accept the 2nd round upgrade they would have to give up.

Until the team has playoff success, coaches, players and GM's will continue to be under pressure to perform, it comes with the territory. That should be the ultimate yardstick in which they are measured.

I agree! We need a defensive defenseman, offensive defenseman to QB the second PP unit, grit on the fourth line and a backup goalie.

Muzzin=defensive defenseman
Barrie=offensive defenseman/PP QB
Clifford =fourth line grit
Campbell=backup goalie.

 

[biotk]

I agree! We need a defensive defenseman, offensive defenseman to QB the second PP unit, grit on the fourth line and a backup goalie.

Muzzin=defensive defenseman
Barrie=offensive defenseman/PP QB
Clifford =fourth line grit
Campbell=backup goalie.

The team did not need Barrie. They had Rielly to QB the first unit. Muzzin could have easily been the second unit QB, and the reality is that the second unit is so poor that a great QB is just wasted there.

 

[Menzinger]

The team did not need Barrie. They had Rielly to QB the first unit. Muzzin could have easily been the second unit QB, and the reality is that the second unit is so poor that a great QB is just wasted there.

While I would certainly agree Barrie wasnt a great fit, the team at the time of the trade didn't have a single rhd who could move the puck.

Special teams aside, that was a big issue for 5v5 play

 

[biotk]

While I would certainly agree Barrie wasnt a great fit, the team at the time of the trade didn't have a single rhd who could move the puck.

Special teams aside, that was a big issue for 5v5 play

I agreed with the Barrie trade at the time for that reason, and don't fault him for making the trade. However, if Dubas could have unloaded Barrie at the trade deadline I think he should have.

 

[Dekes For Days]

However, if Dubas could have unloaded Barrie at the trade deadline I think he should have.

That would have been a horrible message to the team and essentially throwing away the year for a rather inconsequential return.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Man was Hunter awful.
Han with more great analysis.

Cant believe people mourn the “loss” of Hunter like they do Lou. At least Lou has pedigree behind him. So far nearly of Hunter’s picks outside of round one don’t look very good, the one exception being Dermott.