Analyzing Dubas's performance II - (Full Analysis)

[Gabriel426]

Like I said before Lou had the benefit of signing Rielly and Kadri to contract extensions after they just finished last place overall, so they didn't have any negotiating leverage. However starting on July 1, 2017 he had all that time to sign Nylander to a contract extension before his ELC expired on July 1, 2018 and becoming an RFA, which he failed to do. I know that Lou was no longer the GM as of April 30, 2018, although he still had all that time to get something done with Nylander.

Yep, for some reason Lou didn’t seem to bother resigning Willie. Cone of silence aside, I don’t remember any medias reporting anything about AVV, terms...during Lou’s last year in regards to Willie’s next contract. Which lead me to believe Lou didn’t even try to get a deal done.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yep, for some reason Lou didn’t seem to bother resigning Willie. Cone of silence aside, I don’t remember any medias reporting anything about AVV, terms...during Lou’s last year in regards to Willie’s next contract. Which lead me to believe Lou didn’t even try to get a deal done.

At least with Dubas he was able to get Matthews re-signed before July 1, 2019 and not have him become an RFA. Maybe it had to do with this report from Elliotte Friedman how Arizona would have offered him a big offer sheet, although the important thing is Dubas didn't drop the ball with Matthews.

Friedman: Coyotes eyed Auston Matthews offer sheet before extension

 

[Gabriel426]

At least with Dubas he was able to get Matthews re-signed before July 1, 2019 and not have him become an RFA. Maybe it had to do with this report from Elliotte Friedman how Arizona would have offered him a big offer sheet, although the important thing is Dubas didn't drop the ball with Matthews.

Friedman: Coyotes eyed Auston Matthews offer sheet before extension

AM was always to be signed before July 1. I think the easiest contract to resign was AM, as we all know he will be making between Eichel and McDavid. Wish the deal is longer but having the option to resign AM before McDavid reset the market again with his third deal will probably be better toward the tail end of that contract.
Willie holding out really screw up Dubas plan that season.

 

[LeafsNation75]

AM was always to be signed before July 1. I think the easiest contract to resign is AM, as we all know he will be making between Eichel and McDavid. Wish the deal is longer but having the option to resign AM before McDavid reset the market again with his third deal will probably be better toward the tail end of that contract.
Willie holding out really screw up Dubas plan that season.

Knowing Lou's reputation of it being take it or leave it, I honestly wonder if he would have let Nylander sit out the 2018-19 season? That's assuming him and Nylander couldn't agree to a contract and he missed the start of that season, which would also mean having to re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Nylander at the same time. So how do we even know Matthews still re-signs like we actually saw happen?

 

[ACC1224]

At least with Dubas he was able to get Matthews re-signed before July 1, 2019 and not have him become an RFA. Maybe it had to do with this report from Elliotte Friedman how Arizona would have offered him a big offer sheet, although the important thing is Dubas didn't drop the ball with Matthews.

Friedman: Coyotes eyed Auston Matthews offer sheet before extension

Hopefully he’s not signing players based on what the media thinks.
Matthews signing was fine. He should have signed Marner before Matthews though.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Hopefully he’s not signing players based on what the media thinks.
Matthews signing was fine. He should have signed Marner before Matthews though.

If Dubas thought like that we would have not seen Nylander miss any games and Marner would have re-signed a lot faster.

It's still true that Arizona would have wanted Matthews to become an RFA for a possible offer sheet and at least it's something Dubas prevented from happening.

 

[ACC1224]

If Dubas thought like that we would have not seen Nylander miss any games and Marner would have re-signed a lot faster.

It's still true that Arizona would have wanted Matthews to become an RFA for a possible offer sheet and at least it's something Dubas prevented from happening.

I agree I don’t think he listens to the media but you has just said that ‘maybe’ he’s influenced by them.

 

[Gabriel426]

Knowing Lou's reputation of it being take it or leave it, I honestly wonder if he would have let Nylander sit out the 2018-19 season? That's assuming him and Nylander couldn't agree to a contract and he missed the start of that season, which would also mean having to re-sign Matthews, Marner, and Nylander at the same time. So how do we even know Matthews still re-signs like we actually saw happen?

This is all hindsight.
Lou probably knew he was not coming back unless Leafs at least is in the Conf Finals.
That would explain why he didn’t trade any of the UFAs for picks or players with more terms. Didn’t want to bother with the Willie’s deal. I read somewhere how Lou wanted to get McDonagh but could not meet the asking price. I think there was a deal for Lou but Dubas and Shanny might have stopped it bc they don’t want Lou to overpaid for a dman with players like Kap and AJ.
Just by having this discussions here and refreshing my brain about Lou’s three years, it showed Lou was working toward something in his 1st and 2nd year but he seemed to lose the direction in his third year, or the directions changed in his third year.
We could make a case about keeping Leo and Bozak due to their set of skills, but keeping JVR was strange. The projection for Marleau’s production even with his declining play should have been equal or just a bit less than JVR. Esp since Kap showed he could be a regular while Brown just came off a 20 goals season while bouncing between the 1st and 3rd line. Also I don’t buy that there is no deal for JVR as he was a proven 30 goals scorer in a 4.75mil contract. That’s pretty attractive for any teams at that time.
This would have been the Fwd line if Lou trades JVR.
Hyman-AM-Willie
Leo-Kadri-Brown
Marleau-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Goat-Kap
Leivo, Boyes

Injuries aside, I really don’t see that big of a diff between the above lineup with the one they had with JVR.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I agree I don’t think he listens to the media but you has just said that ‘maybe’ he’s influenced by them.

Dubas did say to the media he wasn't worried about offer sheets when asked about Marner possibly getting one and accepting it.

 

[LeafsNation75]

This is all hindsight.
Lou probably knew he was not coming back unless Leafs at least is in the Conf Finals.
That would explain why he didn’t trade any of the UFAs for picks or players with more terms. Didn’t want to bother with the Willie’s deal. I read somewhere how Lou wanted to get McDonagh but could not meet the asking price. I think there was a deal for Lou but Dubas and Shanny might have stopped it bc they don’t want Lou to overpaid for a dman with players like Kap and AJ.
Just by having this discussions here and refreshing my brain about Lou’s three years, it showed Lou was working toward something in his 1st and 2nd year but he seemed to lose the direction in his third year, or the directions changed in his third year.
We could make a case about keeping Leo and Bozak due to their set of skills, but keeping JVR was strange. The projection for Marleau’s production even with his declining play should have been equal or just a bit less than JVR. Esp since Kap showed he could be a regular while Brown just came off a 20 goals season while bouncing between the 1st and 3rd line. Also I don’t buy that there is no deal for JVR as he was a proven 30 goals scorer in a 4.75mil contract. That’s pretty attractive for any teams at that time.
This would have been the Fwd line if Lou trades JVR.
Hyman-AM-Willie
Leo-Kadri-Brown
Marleau-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Goat-Kap
Leivo, Boyes

Injuries aside, I really don’t see that big of a diff between the above lineup with the one they had with JVR.

I know some people on here wanted Bozak and JVR traded because they were about to become UFA's, although maybe Lou didn't do that because how many times have seen a team who was a lock to make the playoffs like the Leafs were in 2018 do something like that?

 

[Gabriel426]

I know some people on here wanted Bozak and JVR traded because they were about to become UFA's, although maybe Lou didn't do that because how many times have seen a team who was a lock to make the playoffs like the Leafs were in 2018 do something like that?

Bozak can be consider as own rental bc he is a C and having AM, Kadri and Bozak as your Centers are something not a lot of team can match.
JVR is different as Lou literally signed Marleau and despite being 36, Marleau’s production Vs JVR is not the diff between making and missing the playoffs.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Bozak can be consider as own rental bc he is a C and having AM, Kadri and Bozak as your Centers are something not a lot of team can match.
JVR is different as Lou literally signed Marleau and despite being 36, Marleau’s production Vs JVR is not the diff between making and missing the playoffs.

I never considered JVR to be similar than Marleau at the time. I remember thinking to myself since JVR lead them with 36 goals that season why would they want to trade away his offense? There was also some games late in that season where JVR was a factor like that 6-5 shootout win against Dallas where he had a hat trick, which included 2 goals in the 3rd period when they were losing 4-2.

 

[deletethis]

I still think that it was a mistake how Lou and Dubas frittered away the Leafs' best opportunities for a Cup with the young guns on ELCs. We're now in the era of scrambling every off-season to cobble together a passable defense and bottom 6 forward group to make the magic happen. It was a real luxury to have JVR/Bozak/Kadri/Komarov/Gardiner on the roster in addition to the young guns. Fans fret over draft picks wasted on Boyle and Plekanec but really what should have happened is a more aggressive pursuit of a Cup run with a bigger impact player or two at the trade deadline.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I still think that it was a mistake how Lou and Dubas frittered away the Leafs' best opportunities for a Cup with the young guns on ELCs. We're now in the era of scrambling every off-season to cobble together a passable defense and bottom 6 forward group to make the magic happen. It was a real luxury to have JVR/Bozak/Kadri/Komarov/Gardiner on the roster in addition to the young guns. Fans fret over draft picks wasted on Boyle and Plekanec but really what should have happened is a more aggressive pursuit of a Cup run with a bigger impact player or two at the trade deadline.

This is a myth IMO. The problem is that you're assuming that young guns are young guns, period. The truth is that these kids get better as they age and it was always likely that they will be much better with a few years under their belts. This season for example, I think you could say they all took a step forward, Nylander in particular and I think it's quite likely that the best is yet to come for all of them.

 

[4thline]

I still think that it was a mistake how Lou and Dubas frittered away the Leafs' best opportunities for a Cup with the young guns on ELCs. We're now in the era of scrambling every off-season to cobble together a passable defense and bottom 6 forward group to make the magic happen. It was a real luxury to have JVR/Bozak/Kadri/Komarov/Gardiner on the roster in addition to the young guns. Fans fret over draft picks wasted on Boyle and Plekanec but really what should have happened is a more aggressive pursuit of a Cup run with a bigger impact player or two at the trade deadline.

The issue was the combo of the Horton contract and ELC performance bonuses. But in two of the three years we did a bigger impact player on July 1. Looking at Marleau the only real better option to help the D was Schultz coming off back to back cups.

Which is an interesting little tangent. The Penguins cups were enabled by a defense where two of the big pieces were
-24 year old former 2nd round pick finally rounding into form
-25 year old reclamation project that they got with 50% retention for a 3rd round pick
The next year the capitals get Kempy for a 3rd, big part of their top 4.

That's the kind of savvy/ballsy/luck we need.

 

[ACC1224]

This is a myth IMO. The problem is that you're assuming that young guns are young guns, period. The truth is that these kids get better as they age and it was always likely that they will be much better with a few years under their belts. This season for example, I think you could say they all took a step forward, Nylander in particular and I think it's quite likely that the best is yet to come for all of them.

I agree. We haven't seen how good they will become, very exciting days ahead.

Where I do think they've missed out on is that mid level contract between ELC and UFA.
Hopefully taking them straight to UFA dollars pays off.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I still think that it was a mistake how Lou and Dubas frittered away the Leafs' best opportunities for a Cup with the young guns on ELCs. We're now in the era of scrambling every off-season to cobble together a passable defense and bottom 6 forward group to make the magic happen. It was a real luxury to have JVR/Bozak/Kadri/Komarov/Gardiner on the roster in addition to the young guns. Fans fret over draft picks wasted on Boyle and Plekanec but really what should have happened is a more aggressive pursuit of a Cup run with a bigger impact player or two at the trade deadline.

I believe more people were okay with what Lou gave up for Boyle because he attempted to make a trade like that to see if they could make the playoffs in 2017, since no one thought that would have happened prior to the start of that season.

The trade for Plekanec was questioned right away since they needed help on defense and had no problems with their fowards.

 

[ACC1224]

I believe more people were okay with what Lou gave up for Boyle because he attempted to make a trade like that to see if they could make the playoffs in 2017, since no one thought that would have happened prior to the start of that season.

The trade for Plekanec was questioned right away since they needed help on defense and had no problems with their fowards.

He did some good things but the Plekanec trade was the worse move made by Lou during his time here.

 

[LeafsNation75]

He did some good things but the Plekanec trade was the worse move made by Lou during his time here.

Without a doubt the trade for Plekanec was horrible and for me it ranks right up there with the Marleau signing, so it's like a 1A/1B situation. Although I would say the Plekanec trade ranks just under that since he was on the team for a few months, where as the Marleau signing had a longer lasting impact.

 

[ACC1224]

Without a doubt the trade for Plekanec was horrible and for me it ranks right up there with the Marleau signing, so it's like a 1A/1B situation. Although I would say the Plekanec trade ranks just under that since he was on the team for a few months, where as the Marleau signing had a longer lasting impact.

Marleau was brought in with clear reasoning behind it and wouldn't have been an issue at all if not for lack of cap space. (That's been beaten to death though)
Plekanec seemed like a meaningless move with not much thought behind it. (I'm sure there was a rational for it but it was never apparent)

 

[Gabriel426]

I never considered JVR to be similar than Marleau at the time. I remember thinking to myself since JVR lead them with 36 goals that season why would they want to trade away his offense? There was also some games late in that season where JVR was a factor like that 6-5 shootout win against Dallas where he had a hat trick, which included 2 goals in the 3rd period when they were losing 4-2.

No doubt they are diff players but in terms of productions for a team in a season.
JVR got 37 goals the year before and it is safe to assume he will score 35 goals the next season. Marleau despite his age with Marner as his wing would probably score 2o goals. That’s only a diff of 15 goals. But you get a full year from Kap, which he should score around 10-15. Plus the improvement of the rookies after their first season.
Like I said, JVR might played a part in helping Leafs with a 105 pt season but he was not the diff between making and missing the playoffs.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Marleau was brought in with clear reasoning behind it and wouldn't have been an issue at all if not for lack of cap space. (That's been beaten to death though)
Plekanec seemed like a meaningless move with not much thought behind it. (I'm sure there was a rational for it but it was never apparent)

I know the Marleau singing at the time made more sense compared to the Plekanec trade. Now if Lou could have singed him for 2 years with a higher AAV instead of 3 years, it would have worked out better since his contract would have finished after the 2018-19 season and wouldn't needed to get traded to Carolina so they could buy him out.

 

[LeafsNation75]

No doubt they are diff players but in terms of productions for a team in a season.
JVR got 37 goals the year before and it is safe to assume he will score 35 goals the next season. Marleau despite his age with Marner as his wing would probably score 2o goals. That’s only a diff of 15 goals. But you get a full year from Kap, which he should score around 10-15. Plus the improvement of the rookies after their first season.
Like I said, JVR might played a part in helping Leafs with a 105 pt season but he was not the diff between making and missing the playoffs.

It should be noted in Marleau's first season with Toronto he did score 27 goals and was more productive compared to his second season. However it wasn't until January 24, 2018 when Marner was put on Marleau's line with Kadri when Toronto was playing Chicago and it was a positive going forward for Marner.

 

[deletethis]

This is a myth IMO. The problem is that you're assuming that young guns are young guns, period. The truth is that these kids get better as they age and it was always likely that they will be much better with a few years under their belts. This season for example, I think you could say they all took a step forward, Nylander in particular and I think it's quite likely that the best is yet to come for all of them.

There's no assumption about the "young guns" not maturing to become better players. The assumption is that they will mature and become the veteran leadership. There's an assumption about how difficult it's going to be to replicate and maintain the support depth those teams had in the present reality using budget signs, elcs and league minimum bodies. We were all were assuming that the ever growing cap would eventually be our friend and allow some quality support depth to accumulate without the scrambling to spackle over the holes created by off season departures. The flat cap has delayed that and made more departures in the 2020 off season seem inevitable.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

I still think that it was a mistake how Lou and Dubas frittered away the Leafs' best opportunities for a Cup with the young guns on ELCs. We're now in the era of scrambling every off-season to cobble together a passable defense and bottom 6 forward group to make the magic happen. It was a real luxury to have JVR/Bozak/Kadri/Komarov/Gardiner on the roster in addition to the young guns. Fans fret over draft picks wasted on Boyle and Plekanec but really what should have happened is a more aggressive pursuit of a Cup run with a bigger impact player or two at the trade deadline.

You seem to think its easy to win and something you can buy your 2ay into doing. Ask the Caps if its the quick fix road or the long haul that pays off in the end...

The only people that expected us to win a cup within the first few years of a rebuild are sadly mistaken and misinformed.