Confirmed Trade: [ANA/PIT] Marcus Pettersson for Daniel Sprong

[Riptide]

Uh, he has 5 goals in 13 games with Anaheim. If he kept up that pace for 82 games, it would be 30+ goals a year.

And the other teams will have scored 44 while he's been on the ice (to his 19 at ES). Great trade off.

 

[Riptide]

Is there a stat for looking bad? Because Sprong would be the leader of that stat when he was in Pittsburgh. The Pens have been on fire since the trade and I don't think it's a coincidence.

His stat line is the exact same in Anaheim. Out shot, out scored, out chanced, with his linemates doing much better when not playing with him.

Sprong's numbers don't require any excuse.

He's a sniper prospect who has 5 goals and 1 assist in 13 games, producing at the sort of pace I figured he would when used properly - you can check the tape. I don't remember making any proclamations about Sprong becoming a good possession player when he went to a new team, especially with 2 teammates in Henrique and Ritchie who are no possession monsters themselves.

Kessel's possession numbers are almost always garbage despite great deployment and better linemates. But you know, he produces. That's a rare and valuable contribution in and of itself.

If Kessel's possession numbers are "garbage", what are Sprong's when he's running significantly worse ones then Kessel?

Kessel in his time in Pittsburgh has flip flopped a bit (53/47/50/46). The difference is that not only does he produce, it's that by large he produced a lot more then what the other team does when he's on the ice. His worst season in that regard was last season and he was a -5 at ES. However over his term as a Penguin, he's still +33 in goal differential at ES, while being a monster on the PP. Sprong doesn't provide that benefit on the PP to the extent that Kessel does, and is pacing for a -25 goal differential this season at ES (and overall even if you account for his PP production).

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Glad to hear that Pettersson has played well, it's a better opportunity for him without a doubt.

 

[Machinehead]

And the other teams will have scored 44 while he's been on the ice (to his 19 at ES). Great trade off.

That's fugly.

 

[Elimanator]

Is there a stat for looking bad? Because Sprong would be the leader of that stat when he was in Pittsburgh. The Pens have been on fire since the trade and I don't think it's a coincidence.

I'm calling bs on this. The five minutes per game or whatever he was playing on the fourth line when he WASN'T healthy scratched caused the Penguins to be bad? That's just totally unreasonable man.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Sprong's numbers don't require any excuse.

He's a sniper prospect who has 5 goals and 1 assist in 13 games, producing at the sort of pace I figured he would when used properly - you can check the tape. I don't remember making any proclamations about Sprong becoming a good possession player when he went to a new team, especially with 2 teammates in Henrique and Ritchie who are no possession monsters themselves.

Kessel's possession numbers are almost always garbage despite great deployment and better linemates. But you know, he produces. That's a rare and valuable contribution in and of itself.

That pace actually sucks for a top two line winger. Goals a good but playing in the top 6 and getting PP time and only on pace for 36 points which is not that great for a one dimensional winger. A player like Rust or Hagelin being a mid 30 point player still adds tons of value for all the little things they bring to the team.

Can’t compare Sprong to Kessel who was in the top 10 in scoring last year and is on pace to duplicate his 92 point season last year. You can be an offense only player if you produce like that. Another big difference about the two players is Kessel is a much better passer and see’s the ice and reads plays so much better than Sprong who seems to be lacking in that department. Reminds me a lot to Yakupov who had some elite skills but lacked in the finer parts of the game (no hockey IQ). I believe Sprong has the same lack of hockey IQ and even less talent. Kessel has a very high hockey IQ.

 

[Riptide]

I'm calling bs on this. The five minutes per game or whatever he was playing on the fourth line when he WASN'T healthy scratched caused the Penguins to be bad? That's just totally unreasonable man.

Correct. Pittsburgh has been doing well (and part of that would be from Pettersson), but a much larger part is due to their goaltending and how the team overall has been playing.

Sprong on Pittsburgh's L4 wasn't the issue. Personally I would have been fine leaving him there for the season hoping that he could figure out how else to help the team other than just his offense. But honestly I'm glad he's gone just so I don't have to read posts after posts about how he's getting shafted and how his lack of production and quality numbers is entirely due to his poor situation and not due to him being a very incomplete player.

As it is, things have worked out well for Pittsburgh with Pettersson. Hopefully Sprong learns enough to grow/round out his game so that he's not the liability he currently is.

 

[Extra Texture]

Glad to hear that Pettersson has played well, it's a better opportunity for him without a doubt.

Likewise, I’m glad to see Sprong is producing getting to play higher up the lineup. But yeah, speaking from a Pens perspective MP has been a godsend. Reminds me of getting Trevor Daley a few years ago in that his arrival has somehow managed to “settle down” the Pens defensively. He’s formed a solid pair with Jack johnson (a deserved whipping boy since the start of the season) which has had a knock on effect to the third pair looking better. A lot of the defensive improvement has to do with Murray returning and looking superhuman, but Pettersson looks poised, confident, and keeps it simple out there. It’s been one of the factors that has helped turn the Pens season around.

Hopefully Sprong keeps it up and his goals help the Ducks get to the playoffs. So far this is looking like another win-win Ducks/Pens trade (hopefully with the same result as 2016 too )

 

[BlackEye from Xhekaj]

Holy **** the Sharks Tampa game starts at 9:00 pm...

Correct. Pittsburgh has been doing well (and part of that would be from Pettersson), but a much larger part is due to their goaltending and how the team overall has been playing.

Sprong on Pittsburgh's L4 wasn't the issue. Personally I would have been fine leaving him there for the season hoping that he could figure out how else to help the team other than just his offense. But honestly I'm glad he's gone just so I don't have to read posts after posts about how he's getting shafted and how his lack of production and quality numbers is entirely due to his poor situation and not due to him being a very incomplete player.

As it is, things have worked out well for Pittsburgh with Pettersson. Hopefully Sprong learns enough to grow/round out his game so that he's not the liability he currently is.

Sometimes that's ok.. let the offensive guy grow as an offensive guy. Not everyone is meant to be a 2way threat. I do think he could definitely better himself defensively if he wants a consistent bigger role going forward, but it's nice to see Sprong gaining confidence and scoring some goals out there.

Also, watching MP, he looks like a really nice fit with Pittsburgh. A mainstay 2nd pairing type.

Looks good on both ends.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Is there a stat for looking bad? Because Sprong would be the leader of that stat when he was in Pittsburgh. The Pens have been on fire since the trade and I don't think it's a coincidence.

Nope. If you bury a sniper prospect on the 4th line for 8:30 a night, why would you expect him to look good? It's certainly not based on precedent, because it's never happened in NHL history.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Uh, he has 5 goals in 13 games with Anaheim. If he kept up that pace for 82 games, it would be 30+ goals a year.

Sprong isn't even at a 20 ES point pace on Anaheim and is getting absolutely caved in terms of goals for vs goals against. He's basically a PP specialist right now, he's a horrid ES player. He has continued to be terrible at ES like he was with the Penguins.

I think most Ducks fans realize he's a project, so I don't think any of them should be upset with how he has done. But so far, he has just been a PP specialist.

I'm calling bs on this. The five minutes per game or whatever he was playing on the fourth line when he WASN'T healthy scratched caused the Penguins to be bad? That's just totally unreasonable man.

Idk, the 4th line with Sprong on it was horrid and it has been excellent since he hasn't been on it. When you're actually getting scoring from your depth guys and they're not giving up a **** load of goals, that certainly helps a team turn it around.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

If Kessel's possession numbers are "garbage", what are Sprong's when he's running significantly worse ones then Kessel?

Kessel in his time in Pittsburgh has flip flopped a bit (53/47/50/46). The difference is that not only does he produce, it's that by large he produced a lot more then what the other team does when he's on the ice. His worst season in that regard was last season and he was a -5 at ES. However over his term as a Penguin, he's still +33 in goal differential at ES, while being a monster on the PP. Sprong doesn't provide that benefit on the PP to the extent that Kessel does, and is pacing for a -25 goal differential this season at ES (and overall even if you account for his PP production).

Neither has good possession numbers, and you shouldn't ever expect them to. Their benefit is their offense. Not every player has to have great Corsi to be an effective and valuable asset - a player scoring at a 30 goal pace certainly qualifies. Never mind that he's only 21 and seeing primarily 2nd unit PP time.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

And the other teams will have scored 44 while he's been on the ice (to his 19 at ES). Great trade off.

At 5v5 since the start of last season yes Sprong has 11 GF and 19 GA. However that is nowhere near sustainable. Sprong has a 52% xGF% and a +2 rel xGF% in that span. His PDO is 96.07 while his xPDO is a normal 100.19. Yes he is technically getting outshot in that span... 198 to 194. However that’s because an unsustainable number of shots when he’s on appear to be going wide. He is out-Fenwicking his opponents 278 to 265.

 

[Empoleon8771]

At 5v5 since the start of last season yes Sprong has 11 GF and 19 GA. However that is nowhere near sustainable. Sprong has a 52% xGF% and a +2 rel xGF% in that span. His PDO is 96.07 while his xPDO is a normal 100.19. Yes he is technically getting outshot in that span... 198 to 194. However that’s because an unsustainable number of shots when he’s on appear to be going wide. He is out-Fenwicking his opponents 278 to 265.

Why don't you only look at his play this year though? His numbers this year are miles worse than they were last year. His xGF% this year is 43.58% and he has gotten easy matchups.

 

[Riptide]

At 5v5 since the start of last season yes Sprong has 11 GF and 19 GA. However that is nowhere near sustainable. Sprong has a 52% xGF% and a +2 rel xGF% in that span. His PDO is 96.07 while his xPDO is a normal 100.19. Yes he is technically getting outshot in that span... 198 to 194. However that’s because an unsustainable number of shots when he’s on appear to be going wide. He is out-Fenwicking his opponents 278 to 265.

Now re-do those numbers only looking at data from this season when he wasn't being carried by Crosby for the 8 games he played - something that didn't happen this year and won't happen in Anaheim (~10 minutes with Crosby and Malkin combined).

 

[Dr Quincy]

Why don't you only look at his play this year though? His numbers this year are miles worse than they were last year. His xGF% this year is 43.58% and he has gotten easy matchups.

Why do you say Marcus Pettersson is a top 4 on Pitt when he's 6th on TOI?

Oh, and is Derick Brassard still a borderline #1C like you told me he was when Pitt got him?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Why do you say Marcus Pettersson is a top 4 on Pitt when he's 6th on TOI?

Where did I ever call Pettersson a top-4 defenseman for the Penguins? I said he's their 3rd best defenseman right now based on performance. Reading is fun.

Oh, and is Derick Brassard still a borderline #1C like you told me he was when Pitt got him?

Relevance to this thread: literally nothing

Go troll somewhere else, the adults are talking. Seriously, what possible value do you think this comment adds to this thread? You quoted numbers about Sprong and started talking about Pettersson (who I wasn't discussing), and then made a troll comment about a completely irrelevant player.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Now re-do those numbers only looking at data from this season when he wasn't being carried by Crosby for the 8 games he played - something that didn't happen this year and won't happen in Anaheim (~10 minutes with Crosby and Malkin combined).

why would i purposefully make my sample smaller and make more of it include his time on an ass anaheim team

 

[PensandCaps]

Why do you say Marcus Pettersson is a top 4 on Pitt when he's 6th on TOI?

Oh, and is Derick Brassard still a borderline #1C like you told me he was when Pitt got him?

Pettersson is top 3 on Pitt.

He plays 3rd pair mins because he's the only guy who has made Johnson look decent.


He is. Easily our 3rd Best Dman.


Take Brassards numbers outside of Pittsburgh and yes he is indeed a good #2C, borderline #1C.

 

[Riptide]

why would i purposefully make my sample smaller and make more of it include his time on an ass anaheim team

Because you'd be removing what was an anomaly in terms of his usage (specifically who he played with) that he never saw again, and won't see again. However I suspect that you've already looked at the numbers, and that's why you're including the ones from last season, in an attempt to boost them as high as possible.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Because you'd be removing what was an anomaly in terms of his usage (specifically who he played with) that he never saw again, and won't see again. However I suspect that you've already looked at the numbers, and that's why you're including the ones from last season, in an attempt to boost them as high as possible.

i didnt already look at the numbers actually. i just use 17-19 as my sample for most evaluations these days

 

[Dr Quincy]

Where did I ever call Pettersson a top-4 defenseman for the Penguins? I said he's their 3rd best defenseman right now based on performance. Reading is fun.



Relevance to this thread: literally nothing

Go troll somewhere else, the adults are talking. Seriously, what possible value do you think this comment adds to this thread? You quoted numbers about Sprong and started talking about Pettersson (who I wasn't discussing), and then made a troll comment about a completely irrelevant player.

The relevance is that when it comes to your eye test your bias for your own players is clear.

Pettersson is a decent young D man with possible upside. But his xGF, his FF%, his GAR and his usage all suggest that right now he's a bottom pairing guy. Nothing wrong with that because he has room to grow for sure. But when you start talking about his ranking on a team, then it's fair to bring up that your history of ranking players on that team aren't accurate.

If you've been so wrong before, why should I believe you when my own eyes and objective numbers tell me something different?

 

[tomd]

It is so sad to see 2-3 Pittsburgh posters who have such an irrational need for the Pens to win this trade. Certainly says something about them and it isn’t good.

 

[Pens x]

Gotta love my Pens fans overrating Pettersson and trashing Sprong. Sprong had to play with Riley Sheanhan and Derrick Grant for most of the season. Asking him to produce with these awful players was not reasonable.

Sprong is gone because Sullivan disliked him. Pettersson is fine but let’s not bash Sprong simply because he’s gone. I don’t know of many players that could produce playing with absolute trash. Riley Sheahan is historically bad offensively.

It seems like an even trade now but I suspect it will look very bad in a couple of years for the Penguins.

 

[Riptide]

i didnt already look at the numbers actually. i just use 17-19 as my sample for most evaluations these days

Fair enough. The issue with that sample size as it relates to Sprong, is that it will have some very good numbers that happened over an 8 game stretch where he was stapled to Crosby's hip. They don't really reflect the 2 versions of Sprong that we saw in that stretch (one good version over 4 games and one shit version over 4 games that ultimately got him sent back to the AHL). And more importantly, compared to what we're seeing this season over ~35 games or so they're very much an anomaly. He didn't get any significant icetime with Crosby or Malkin (and none of it was on a regular shift with them), and there's no one like that in Anaheim to carry him. Which means those numbers from 17/18 are not actually reflective/predictive of what he'll be this season in Anaheim unless something changes drastically for him or the team.