An Unlikely Path

[joshjull]

When doing my calculations / optimistic predictions, I did not expect the Caps to keep this heater going. Now my assumption is that they will pass the Flyers for Metro-3. TBL will get WC1, with the remainder of the teams battling for WC2.

Out of those teams, I think it will come down to BUF and NYI. At least if they end up with the same number of points, Sabres have the RW tie-breaker.

The Caps had the advantage of a lot of games in hand when you started this thread. IIRC they had 3 games in hand. Where others were at 1 or 2.

 

[joshjull]

Leave us alone!

Let us toil in obscurity during our ill fated attempt to make the playoffs.

 

[old kummelweck]

So many teams have a game or two in hand. Did a quick estimation on final points based on point accruals for the last 10 games. This picture predicts buffalo misses playoffs by 3 points.

TEAM	GAMES REMAINING	CURRENT POINTS	PPG AVG LAST 10	EST POINT ACCRUAL	END POINTS
TB	15	78	1.3	19.5	97.5
NYI	15	73	1.3	19.5	92.5
WAS	14	75	1.2	16.8	91.8
PHI	14	76	0.9	12.6	88.6
BFO	13	71	1.3	16.9	87.9
DET	14	74	0.4	5.6	79.6
PIT	15	69	0.7	10.5	79.5

 

[old kummelweck]

So basically they need 22 points in 13 games. That's 11-2 or 10-1-2. 9-1-3 is probably the very bottom of what the can do, and even then, they probably need help.

 

[Montag DP]

Why can't we ever just play well in the first four months of the season so we don't have to chase the wild card at the end just to fall short?

 

[paulmm3]

From SportsClubStats:

About a 5% chance 88 points gets us in
17ish% chance 89 points does it
35% 90 points is enough
57% 91 points is enough
75% 92 points is enough
89% 93 points is enough
96% chance we make the playoffs if we get to 94 points

Definitely not impossible but will need to watch the out of town scoreboard a lot.

 

[Weltschmerz]

So basically they need 22 points in 13 games. That's 11-2 or 10-1-2. 9-1-3 is probably the very bottom of what the can do, and even then, they probably need help.

In your example they would only need 21 point, because Islanders would take the 3rd metro spot.
But yeah I don't really believe anymore after that Detroit game, chances were slim before that.

 

[brian_griffin]

So many teams have a game or two in hand. Did a quick estimation on final points based on point accruals for the last 10 games. This picture predicts buffalo misses playoffs by 3 points.

TEAM	GAMES REMAINING	CURRENT POINTS	PPG AVG LAST 10	EST POINT ACCRUAL	END POINTS
TB	15	78	1.3	19.5	97.5
NYI	15	73	1.3	19.5	92.5
WAS	14	75	1.2	16.8	91.8
PHI	14	76	0.9	12.6	88.6
BFO	13	71	1.3	16.9	87.9
DET	14	74	0.4	5.6	79.6
PIT	15	69	0.7	10.5	79.5

Where are the Sabres in that list? The BFO airport code is in Zimbabwe, and I refuse to impugn the wonderful people of Butte Fook, Oregon, for recognizing the perseverance of Jedediah Fook in founding their hilltop community in the mid-1800s.

Why can't we ever just play well in the first four months of the season so we don't have to chase the wild card at the end just to fall short?

Why can't the Sabres play well enough to earn one of the three Atlantic spots outright?

 

[Montag DP]

Why can't the Sabres play well enough to earn one of the three Atlantic spots outright?

I'm not picky. I'll take any playoff spot.

 

[TehDoak]

Why can't we ever just play well in the first four months of the season so we don't have to chase the wild card at the end just to fall short?

Because then we get to say "100 point pace over the last X games" and ignore the first 82-x games and repeat it next year.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Lots of important games tonight

Columbus @ Detroit 7PM
Pitt @ NJ 7PM
Toronto @ Philly 7PM
Carolina @ NYI 7:30 PM
Tampa @ LV ( nothing wrong with hoping the top WC team falters)

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

2-2 after 2 in Wings/BJ
3-0 Flyers over the stupid Laffs
2-1 Devils over Pens
3-0 Canes over Isles

Give me BJ and Canes W and I'l be happy.

Bluejackets go up 3-2 on the PP.

That was hell of a glove save by the Columbus goalie. Robbed them of a goal.

 

[Chainshot]

Wings timeout, 19 seconds left and the faceoff in the Columbus zone.

 

[Chainshot]

Wings tie it with 12 seconds left.

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Detroit ties it with 12 f***ing seconds left

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Unbelievable.

 

[kirby11]

what is it like to tie games late and steal points

 

[GrierIsGod123]

and then Kane wins it ... we're f***ed

 

[SwordsgoneWild]

Kane wins it. I hate this team.

 

[Chainshot]

Wings get away with hooking by Compher and then come back and win in OT. Pat Kane in OT.

 

[kirby11]

Of course they win on an uncalled pick

 

[Fezzy126]

Well the ending of that Wings game wasn't ideal. Gaudreau livid and with good reason on an obvious missed hook.

 

[Chainshot]

Well the ending of that Wings game wasn't ideal. Gaudreau livid and with good reason on an obvious missed hook.

That's the sort of call perennially bad teams don't get and once upon a time good teams do get.

 

[kirby11]

Well the ending of that Wings game wasn't ideal. Gaudreau livid and with good reason on an obvious missed hook.

Someone should tell him Gary and anonymously polled “fans” think the refs are doing better than ever!

It feels like, over the past few years, they’ve just decided to let blatant penalties in all situations go a lot more often

 

[Fezzy126]

Someone should tell him Gary and anonymously polled “fans” think the refs are doing better than ever!

It feels like, over the past few years, they’ve just decided to let blatant penalties in all situations go a lot more often

The inconsistency is the maddening part for me. There are times that a stick lift barely grazes the opponents gloves and it's a penalty, while in this case Compher was completely waterskiing on Columbus' best player as he was about to break in on goal all alone.

I loved the game even through the dead puck era. The product was terrible and I bitched plenty back then, but at least they were consistent.