An Unlikely Path

[Mattilaus]

The problem with pointing to singular stinker games is that every team has them throughout a season. The problem is we had them more often than other good teams did. It wasn't one bad game here or there that sunk us, it was all of them. You can't expect us to perform amazingly for 82 games, it just won't happen. We are where we are because of a pattern of under performing, not because of one bad game here or there.

 

[Zman5778]

The 2-1 home loss to Nashville when Nashville was still trying to get to .500.
The 9-4 loss at home to Columbus.
The 5-3 loss at home to Detroit where the Wings ran out to a 4-0 lead before Buffalo woke up.
Getting shutout 2-0 in Arizona.

Plenty of spots where they should have had to get closer. I wish they learned lessons from all of this, but I had hoped they would have learned things from LAST YEAR doing things like that. *sigh*

Not just these. But how many 1 goal games (or 2 with an ENG against) would a power play goal have gotten us at least one point? Or ST in general killing us?

There was that back-and-forth affair against NJ where we allowed a shorty and went 0-2 on the PP.
That 1-0 loss to Vancouver....0-3 on the PP
Either loss to St.L.

And that's just off the top of my head.

We have as many wins in regulation as the Leafs. SIX MORE than the Isles. Five more than Detroit. Three more than the Flyers and Caps.

It's not even that we lost twice to Anaheim or St. L -- we didn't get a point. Our ability to just get a point this year has been awful.

 

[MOGlLNY]

The problem this year was the powerplay. Bar none. It’s what sunk us. If we are even 20th in the league we are picking up at least 6 extra points in the standings whether through OT or outright wins.

We’ve finally found a way to stop the insane losing skids but we never put together a proper win streak. Hopefully that’s the next step next year.

 

[BuffaloMango]

The 2-1 home loss to Nashville when Nashville was still trying to get to .500.
The 9-4 loss at home to Columbus.
The 5-3 loss at home to Detroit where the Wings ran out to a 4-0 lead before Buffalo woke up.
Getting shutout 2-0 in Arizona.

Plenty of spots where they should have had to get closer. I wish they learned lessons from all of this, but I had hoped they would have learned things from LAST YEAR doing things like that. *sigh*

Not just these. But how many 1 goal games (or 2 with an ENG against) would a power play goal have gotten us at least one point? Or ST in general killing us?

There was that back-and-forth affair against NJ where we allowed a shorty and went 0-2 on the PP.
That 1-0 loss to Vancouver....0-3 on the PP
Either loss to St.L.

And that's just off the top of my head.

We have as many wins in regulation as the Leafs. SIX MORE than the Isles. Five more than Detroit. Three more than the Flyers and Caps.

It's not even that we lost twice to Anaheim or St. L -- we didn't get a point. Our ability to just get a point this year has been awful.

This was my point up thread. Over 82 games teams generally don’t miss the playoffs by a point, or an OT, or a game. They miss because they fail similarly in similar situations overall.

That said sometimes teams catch both bad and good luck at times.

A 17 game football season is a season of bounces. An 82 game hockey season is a season of trends and tendencies.

Still rooting for the swords to finish strong.

 

[Djp]

Everyone has bad losses otpr gave up alloy of goals.

The issue this year was thr poor PP and 20+ 1 goal loses ( including en/ under 5 min goals against a goalie).

There were other games where they lost by 2-3 goals but were 0-5+ on PP

There were some games where goalie had a quality start of 2 or less goals against in regulation ( excluding en g) and came away with less than 2 pts.

tak 1-2 games from each group and thry are in a playoff spot

Everyone has bad losses otpr gave up alloy of goals.

The issue this year was thr poor PP and 20+ 1 goal loses ( including en/ under 5 min goals against a goalie).

There were other games where they lost by 2-3 goals but were 0-5+ on PP

There were some games where goalie had a quality start of 2 or less goals against in regulation ( excluding en g) and came away with less than 2 pts.

tak 1-2 games from each group and thry are in a playoff spot

 

[Djp]

If buffalo wins all remsining games and Detroit and 3 of NYI, was, Pitt, Phil at most get 1 ppg left thrn buffalo is a WC team at 89 pts.

 

[Gras]

NYI with 25 wins and 15 loser points os pretty ridiculous for a playoff team

 

[dortt]

we'd be in if we would do the right thing and go with a 3-1-0 system

 

[Snippit]

I am wondering what the probability of us qualifying for the playoffs is if we run the table.

Let's fill in the standings assuming we go 5-0 (beating DET, WSH in regulation), and hold the RW over everybody. Not including NJD because if we win out they cannot pass us.

BUF: 82 GP, 89 points
PHI: 77 GP, 83 points
NYI: 76 GP, 83 points
DET: 77 GP, 82 points
WSH: 77 GP, 82 points
PIT: 76 GP, 81 points

To ensure teams finish on 89 or less:

NYI: 3-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 3-2 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 4-2 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)

- We need the Detroit outcome to happen, and 3/4 of the Metro outcomes to happen.
- Here are the games that teams play each other:WSH vs PHI, WSH vs DET, DET vs PIT, NYI vs PIT. Ideally, from the inter-team games, everything ends in regulation, and team aren't winning multiple (ex. it's better if DET goes 1-1, WSH goes 1-1, etc.).

It is very tough to put a number on this, but I don't think the outcomes above are so unrealistic, especially considering we only need 3/4 of the Metro ones to happen. I'd put it around 50-60% based on just a gut feeling..we are not asking for much especially from DET/WSH/PIT.

----

Now if we do the exact same exercise, but put our record at 4-1 (this is much more do-able since we are likely losing to one of Dallas or Florida or Tampa) - we still beat DET, WSH in regulation and hold the tie-breaker:

BUF: 82 GP, 87 points

NYI: 2-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 2-3 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 3-3 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)
(also NJD has to drop at least one point)

Again none of those would be individually shocking but it's just asking a lot for 4/5 of those outcomes to happen. This is probably ~ 5%, again just a total guess.

But bottom line, if we can win out, I think it's about a coinflip or better that we get in.

 

[Sabretooth]

Your guesses aren't far off according to sportsclubstats simulations.

46.8% with 89 pts
14.2% with 88 pts
2-2.7% with 87 pts depending on how they arrive there.

Of course they also only give us a 1.1% chance of the 89 pts outcome occurring tho, so.... Not holding my breath

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

I am wondering what the probability of us qualifying for the playoffs is if we run the table.

Let's fill in the standings assuming we go 5-0 (beating DET, WSH in regulation), and hold the RW over everybody. Not including NJD because if we win out they cannot pass us.

BUF: 82 GP, 89 points
PHI: 77 GP, 83 points
NYI: 76 GP, 83 points
DET: 77 GP, 82 points
WSH: 77 GP, 82 points
PIT: 76 GP, 81 points

To ensure teams finish on 89 or less:

NYI: 3-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 3-2 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 4-2 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)

- We need the Detroit outcome to happen, and 3/4 of the Metro outcomes to happen.
- Here are the games that teams play each other:WSH vs PHI, WSH vs DET, DET vs PIT, NYI vs PIT. Ideally, from the inter-team games, everything ends in regulation, and team aren't winning multiple (ex. it's better if DET goes 1-1, WSH goes 1-1, etc.).

It is very tough to put a number on this, but I don't think the outcomes above are so unrealistic, especially considering we only need 3/4 of the Metro ones to happen. I'd put it around 50-60% based on just a gut feeling..we are not asking for much especially from DET/WSH/PIT.

----

Now if we do the exact same exercise, but put our record at 4-1 (this is much more do-able since we are likely losing to one of Dallas or Florida or Tampa) - we still beat DET, WSH in regulation and hold the tie-breaker:

BUF: 82 GP, 87 points

NYI: 2-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 2-3 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 3-3 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)
(also NJD has to drop at least one point)

Again none of those would be individually shocking but it's just asking a lot for 4/5 of those outcomes to happen. This is probably ~ 5%, again just a total guess.

But bottom line, if we can win out, I think it's about a coinflip or better that we get in.

I love how much effort you’re putting into this, makes it fun if they can somehow win another 1 or 2 in a row now, but let’s be honest- that Philly game shook me. Sure, Philly was hungry, but they were clearly sheltering a clearly bad goalie and we still just barely escaped.

Still like the talent here, just no faith in this coaching regime. Hoping I’m wrong, and your work makes the rest of the season more interesting regardless.

 

[Zman5778]

The problem this year was the powerplay. Bar none. It’s what sunk us. If we are even 20th in the league we are picking up at least 6 extra points in the standings whether through OT or outright wins.

We’ve finally found a way to stop the insane losing skids but we never put together a proper win streak. Hopefully that’s the next step next year.

Screw "proper win streak". Much has been made that we don't have anything more than two strings of 3 wins in a row.

We only have two other 3-game POINT streaks (each went W-OTL-W).

We don't have a POINT STREAK of 4 games this year.


We can go on and on about the reasons behind it -- and there are many. But when it gets down to it, our inability to get points in close games is what ultimately is going to keep us out of the playoffs.

 

[5 Minute Major]

In an 82 game season, there should be no “what ifs” because every team has a handful of those games.

 

[Chainshot]

Looks like Tampa is not going to be doing any favors today.

 

[brian_griffin]

If Nashville and Columbus win, we are looking at a real shit here…

(and)

That second one is a pretty tall order.

...still don't know if a typo...

 

[Zman5778]

Looks like Tampa is not going to be doing any favors today.

They're trying now.

 

[Beerz]

Looks like Tampa is not going to be doing any favors today.

Tied

 

[Zman5778]

Tampa gets running around in their own end like we do....annnnnd the Pens re-take the lead.

 

[Beerz]

Well crap.

Should of stayed outside doing yard work

 

[Beerz]

What the hell.
Hedman breaks stick twice in 3 seconds of gameplay

 

[Zman5778]

Stammer flubs 2 one-timers from his spot in a 10 second span.

*sigh*

 

[BB79]

Flyers suck but the Pens won and the Islanders are up 1-0 at the moment. The hole gets deeper. Whenever you're in a race with a half dozen other teams who are playing each other half the time it's going to be hard to gain any traction. Oh well what can you do. (I wish they'd try something different, like playing better in October-January)

 

[Snippit]

I am wondering what the probability of us qualifying for the playoffs is if we run the table.

Let's fill in the standings assuming we go 5-0 (beating DET, WSH in regulation), and hold the RW over everybody. Not including NJD because if we win out they cannot pass us.

BUF: 82 GP, 89 points
PHI: 77 GP, 83 points
NYI: 76 GP, 83 points
DET: 77 GP, 82 points
WSH: 77 GP, 82 points
PIT: 76 GP, 81 points

To ensure teams finish on 89 or less:

NYI: 3-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 3-2 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 4-2 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)

- We need the Detroit outcome to happen, and 3/4 of the Metro outcomes to happen.
- Here are the games that teams play each other:WSH vs PHI, WSH vs DET, DET vs PIT, NYI vs PIT. Ideally, from the inter-team games, everything ends in regulation, and team aren't winning multiple (ex. it's better if DET goes 1-1, WSH goes 1-1, etc.).

It is very tough to put a number on this, but I don't think the outcomes above are so unrealistic, especially considering we only need 3/4 of the Metro ones to happen. I'd put it around 50-60% based on just a gut feeling..we are not asking for much especially from DET/WSH/PIT.

----

Now if we do the exact same exercise, but put our record at 4-1 (this is much more do-able since we are likely losing to one of Dallas or Florida or Tampa) - we still beat DET, WSH in regulation and hold the tie-breaker:

BUF: 82 GP, 87 points

NYI: 2-3 or worse (GR: NSH, NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 2-3 or worse (GR: CBJ, MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 2-2-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 3-3 or worse (GR: TBL, TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)
(also NJD has to drop at least one point)

Again none of those would be individually shocking but it's just asking a lot for 4/5 of those outcomes to happen. This is probably ~ 5%, again just a total guess.

But bottom line, if we can win out, I think it's about a coinflip or better that we get in.

Update today: what we need assuming we run the table to 89 points and beat DET WSH in regulation.

NYI: 2-3 or worse (GR: NYR, MTL, NYR, NJD, PIT)
PHI: 3-1 or worse (GR: MTL, NYR, NJD, WSH)
DET: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: WSH, PIT, TOR, MTL, MTL)
WSH: 3-1-1 or worse (GR: OTT, DET, TBL, BOS, PHI)
PIT: 3-2 or worse (GR: TOR, DET, BOS, NSH, NYI)

I think we got one Metro team who will be compliant in Philly. WSH will probably be another.

 

[DapperCam]

I can see:

NYI 38-26-17 => 93 points (Metro)
PIT 39-31-12 => 90 points (WC2)
BUF 42-35-5 => 89 points

If it came to that, interestingly the Pens final game is 2 days after the Sabres final game. So the entire Sabres fanbase would be watching a random Wednesday night Pens vs Isles game with bated breath.

 

[brian_griffin]

I can see:

NYI 38-26-17 => 93 points (Metro)
PIT 39-31-12 => 90 points (WC2)
BUF 42-35-5 => 89 points

If it came to that, interestingly the Pens final game is 2 days after the Sabres final game. So the entire Sabres fanbase would be watching a random Wednesday night Pens vs Isles game with bated breath.

That must be a rescheduled game because typically the league ends on a Sat or Sun and there's a 2 or 3-day gap before playoffs begin.