All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread Pt 11

[bleedgreen]

Is it time for pointless old regime vs new regime arguments again already? So hard to tell in coronavirus time.

I actually agree with the frustration. Someone always has to throw in the “this never would’ve happened under Francis” or “I’m just glad we have a gm willing to make moves now”. Someone in this thread even said something about Peters not using analytics the way we use them now which is mind numbing. Not only because Peters was an analytics guy but because our current head coach is the least analytics guy we’ve probably had since before analytics. I’m sure he appreciates what Tulsky brings and as a modern day coach understands what those stats mean but we play dump and chase, grind the corners, outwork for rebounds which is straight out of 1978. He’s as eye test as they come.

We can’t just enjoy that things are pretty good now. Francis built it back up, Waddell and the hive turned the page. Francis might’ve turned the page too, but it’s irrelevant. I’m fine with letting it go, but I’m probably always going to reply when people throw those comments out.

 

[AD Skinner]

If anything, people should save their venom for karmanos not Francis. Did anybody else read the 2006 retrospective thing on the athletic? I think it was Hedican who said karmanos got mad at laviolette for inviting everybody's families into the ice after game 7. That kind of thing plus being a major cheapskate by the end? What a jerk, and not the fun kind

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Or....like with Rod there were new openings and they simply promoted the people they liked into them as long as they fit the pay structure. It doesn’t mean the old regime didn’t value him or wouldn’t have used him in exactly the same way. He was presumably working his way up the ladder already.

Or....isn't that just using speculation to push your own narrative, like you complained about others doing?

Seriously though, it wasn't just the promotion, like I stated, they added data analysts, data scientists, date engineers, etc... The comments from Dundon and the model he talked about from day 1. They beefed up that staff . Data Scientists can pretty much name their job these days as they are a high demand field. On top of that, there was a story where they were working on a project with NC State (I think it was NC state) on analytics, data, statistics. I 100% feel the new regime places more value on statistics (and by extension Tulsky) for the reasons I stated; and while it certainly is speculation, I think it's a very reasonable position to take given the facts that are available to us that I listed.

None of us know for sure the inner workings within the Canes, but the fact that they are investing more in it tells me it is more important to them. Not a knock on the old regime as this isn't to say that is better or worse than the prior FO, just that I think it's DIFFERENT.

If you don't want to agree, that's fine, but it seems you are now going out of your way to dismiss any thing like this. I understand that it's probably to try to counter all that are going overboard with heaping praise on this front office , when it isn't warranted (which I agree with, see my posts from yesterday) so I get it, but it's not an all or nothing for me.

Anyhow, I agree more than I disagree with you on this topic as a whole (not Tulsky, but the FO discussions in general), so I'll stop for now.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I mentioned Martinook for Kruger as the first move made by the new FO, before all of the interim tags were removed and made permanent. At the time of the deal, Martinook was quite underappreciated from an analytics standpoint as a bottom-6er. Although it should be noted that Arizona was quite terrible that year, Martinook was 2nd among their forward corps in terms of CorsiRel%, and the only guy above him was a mid-season acquisition that wasn't with their team most of that season. I could definitely see Tulsky having a pretty significant say in that move.

 

[bleedgreen]

Or....isn't that just using speculation to push your own narrative, like you complained about others doing?

Seriously though, it wasn't just the promotion, like I stated, they added data analysts, data scientists, date engineers, etc... The comments from Dundon and the model he talked about from day 1. They beefed up that staff . Data Scientists can pretty much name their job these days as they are a high demand field. On top of that, there was a story where they were working on a project with NC State (I think it was NC state) on analytics, data, statistics. I 100% feel the new regime places more value on statistics (and by extension Tulsky) for the reasons I stated; and while it certainly is speculation, I think it's a very reasonable position to take given the facts that are available to us that I listed.

None of us know for sure the inner workings within the Canes, but the fact that they are investing more in it tells me it is more important to them. Not a knock on the old regime as this isn't to say that is better or worse than the prior FO, just that I think it's DIFFERENT.

If you don't want to agree, that's fine, but it seems you are now going out of your way to dismiss any thing like this. I understand that it's probably to try to counter all that are going overboard with heaping praise on this front office , when it isn't warranted (which I agree with, see my posts from yesterday) so I get it, but it's not an all or nothing for me.

Anyhow, I agree more than I disagree with you on this topic as a whole (not Tulsky, but the FO discussions in general), so I'll stop for now.

I get it. That’s the second time you mentioned it was me with a narrative, the first time you quoted something I was referring to earlier in the thread that someone has said. Not you. I didn’t quote it either so I understand why you might’ve missed it. I think someone had said Francis didn’t pay attention to the analytics or Tulsky and I was responding to that, and you’re taking that and expanding from it.

It doesn’t matter. I’m sure I do overcompensate for the reason you mentioned. I do honestly believe that almost any new regime could’ve come in, spent the assets that RF built up in trades and improved the team. If that new regime had money to spend we would’ve spent it in similar ways to what we have. They would’ve had strong analytics as that’s the way it’s done now. The anti Francis analytics argument has been made even more comical by the fact that Francis has hired a huge analytics group for Seattle. Since he hired Tulsky and Peters (who was a new school hire at the time, not a mere Babcock disciple) I think it’s more than fair to say the old regime was headed in the same direction as we are.

I also agree that generally you and I are on the same page and I like our occasional debates, there’s never any negative emotion in them from my side. Not on this one either. You often make the best argument against mine.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That’s the second time you mentioned it was me with a narrative,

Yeah, that was me just poking fun at you more than anything.

I also agree that generally you and I are in the same page and I like our occasional debates, there’s never any negative emotion in them from my side. Not on this one either. You often make the best argument against mine.

agree.

 

[bleedgreen]

I mentioned Martinook for Kruger as the first move made by the new FO, before all of the interim tags were removed and made permanent. At the time of the deal, Martinook was quite underappreciated from an analytics standpoint as a bottom-6er. Although it should be noted that Arizona was quite terrible that year, Martinook was 2nd among their forward corps in terms of CorsiRel%, and the only guy above him was a mid-season acquisition that wasn't with their team most of that season. I could definitely see Tulsky having a pretty significant say in that move.

I’m sure he played a part and gave it a thumbs up but as it’s a group that does everything supposedly as a group that’s a move that needs no analytics. A ten year old in franchise mode on NHL 20 would’ve made that trade.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I’m sure he played a part and gave it a thumbs up but as it’s a group that does everything supposedly as a group that’s a move that needs no analytics. A ten year old in franchise mode on NHL 20 would’ve made that trade.

That's true, that deal was always more of a small draft-pick upgrade move on the Arizona side, while Carolina was interested in giving an under-appreciated bottom-6 guy a shot. In that deal, Arizona upgraded from a 4th to a 3rd, and they later flipped Kruger to Chicago a month later for Hossa's LTIRetired contract and (more importantly) Hinostroza.

 

[MinJaBen]

Sharks are close to signing that young Russian goalie.

 

[Phenomenon]

Teuvo Teräväinen is playing golf against professional golfer Mikko Korhonen in a show event in Facebook Live today. The 9-hole game is played in Nokia River Golf in Finland and is shown free for all. Commentary is only in Finnish. The first similar duel was between Patrik Laine and Sami Välimäki 2 weeks ago.
Mikko Korhonen vs Teuvo Teräväinen - supertähtien golfkisat jatkuvat Viasat Urheilu FB-tilillä - ePressi

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Sharks are close to signing that young Russian goalie.

Damn, was really hoping we’d land him.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Kinda makes sense as a choice. San Jose loses the mediocre Dell this offseason and he only has to compete with the corpse of Martin Jones. They'll need a cheap goalie to complement him in the coming years unless they somehow get out of his contract. With SJ less competitive right now, they may be more willing to give him a shot sooner. Seems like SJ has a better history of developing young goalies too.

We may need a long term solution, but we have two goalies under contract next year, and both are better than Jones.

 

[GoldiFox]

Kinda makes sense as a choice. San Jose loses the mediocre Dell this offseason and he only has to compete with the corpse of Martin Jones. They'll need a cheap goalie to complement him in the coming years unless they somehow get out of his contract. With SJ less competitive right now, they may be more willing to give him a shot sooner. Seems like SJ has a better history of developing young goalies too.

We may need a long term solution, but we have two goalies under contract next year, and both are better than Jones.

Sharks have Evgeni Nabokov as their goalie coach. Was always going to be an uphill battle bidding against one of the great Russian goalies as a mentor. At least the Canes interest indicates they are actively looking for some goalie help. They need it if they plan to compete for a Cup.

 

[DaveG]

Kinda makes sense as a choice. San Jose loses the mediocre Dell this offseason and he only has to compete with the corpse of Martin Jones. They'll need a cheap goalie to complement him in the coming years unless they somehow get out of his contract. With SJ less competitive right now, they may be more willing to give him a shot sooner. Seems like SJ has a better history of developing young goalies too.

We may need a long term solution, but we have two goalies under contract next year, and both are better than Jones.

Yep, just gets annoying as hell to keep missing on these guys. Francouz, VV (we were set to sign him but the jackets pulled a saints and drafted him), now Melnichuk

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

Read in some Finnish Hockey blog that Swedish players have access to ice while others are mainly doing off-season training without ice. This has apparently caused some waves for other nationalities. I also read that Provorov moved back with his CHL Foster family to gain access to ice.

If the season continues, those people who have been able to skate should be in way better shape. There might also be a lot of injuries, even if there's a training camp. I'm thinking existing standings might not adequately describe current situation.

Not sure how this affects Canes. Hamilton, Tro, Vatanen etc getting some rest is positive. Lack of Swedes is negative. What else?

 

[WreckingCrew]

So, with nothing else going on, I'm curious what you guys are thinking on the contract front for pursuing UFA goalies. I know we'd all probably like Markstrom/Lehner...but they'll probably be the longest & most expensive contracts. Holtby is former Vezina, but he's really started to fall off the past few years, still could end up being a slightly cheaper option if we're banking on a resurgence. Could Crawford be an upgrade for a year or two, or is that just more of Mrazek/Reimer (but probably more expensive)? What are you guys/gals thinking for contracts for them?

 

[Chrispy]

So, with nothing else going on, I'm curious what you guys are thinking on the contract front for pursuing UFA goalies. I know we'd all probably like Markstrom/Lehner...but they'll probably be the longest & most expensive contracts. Holtby is former Vezina, but he's really started to fall off the past few years, still could end up being a slightly cheaper option if we're banking on a resurgence. Could Crawford be an upgrade for a year or two, or is that just more of Mrazek/Reimer (but probably more expensive)? What are you guys/gals thinking for contracts for them?

I find it hard to imagine Holtby will take a discount at this point. He's still only 30 and despite last year had a long history of good performance overall, but there are many more miles on that 30 than Markstrom's 30 (468 NHL games + 89 NHL playoff games for Holtby; 272 NHL games for Markstrom.)

Markstrom is still my first choice. I think the sweepstakes will be over Lehner, so maybe jumping on Markstrom or Holtby early in the discussions would be good.

Crawford could make sense as a short term upgrade on Reimer or Mrazek if you believe in Ned beyond this season. If you don't trust Ned, signing Crawford's injury history make him a high risk move.

If they cannot land any of those 4, I think they continue to roll with Mrazek/Reimer or look at a trade with PIT.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

So, with nothing else going on, I'm curious what you guys are thinking on the contract front for pursuing UFA goalies. I know we'd all probably like Markstrom/Lehner...but they'll probably be the longest & most expensive contracts. Holtby is former Vezina, but he's really started to fall off the past few years, still could end up being a slightly cheaper option if we're banking on a resurgence. Could Crawford be an upgrade for a year or two, or is that just more of Mrazek/Reimer (but probably more expensive)? What are you guys/gals thinking for contracts for them?

Knowing we have to save cap space for this season’s performance bonuses and next season’s as well, we’ll either stand pat or have trade both while signing one of the more expensive guys.

my guess is we stand pat. Lehner probably has 2 good years left then who knows what is left. Serviceable years? Bad years? Markstrom may have 1 good year left. I don’t think he warrants the money he gets anyways.

My target would be a guy like Murray from Pittsburgh. He had a strong year when the Penguins were a good team in front of him. He has faced the most odd man rushes of any goalie this season. The defense was fairly terrible last season too but had a respectable.919 sv %. He is in the right age group to really carry a team that would warrant a 4+ year deal that the older guys will get. He’ll have a much better group in front of him as well. His current bad year should keep the dollar value down.

could we swing a Gardiner for Murray base type swap?

move Reimer for a depth draft pick. Ottawa might want a goalie that has a 3 million cap hit but only paid 850k. 2021 2nd rounder, top 15 protected or their 3rd rounder.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Seems @Chrispy and I were along the same mind set. Chrispy is a faster typer though

 

[DaveG]

I'd have talks with Lehner and Markstrom, but I can't imagine either would be in an affordable range for us. We would have to look at moving both Petr and Reimer if we could sign either and go with Ned as the backup.

Holtby I wouldn't even touch

The one option I'd look at is Georgiev.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Unless a younger option like a Georgiev or Murray (and he is still worrisome) come available, I don't think the fits are there. And even the best young options might be in division so we may get Grubauered.

I'd have to pass on Holtby for the assumed price tag. He hasn't earned what he'll get the last three years other than the Cup run. I don't think we'll get a shot at Markstrom. And while I wouldn't mind taking a run at Lehner, how many times does this front office have to pass on a guy? We probably aren't that interested.

So, if we can get a young, but somewhat proven guy, or somehow a stud goalie shakes loose, go for it. If not, I'd stick with what we have.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I'd love to get one of Markstrom/Lehner, but as you guys are mentioning, the term and/or $$ will probably be too steep. I'm not worried about cap in relation to goalies, if we got one of those 2 we could easily jettison either of Mrazek/Reimer since both have 1 year and are at least capable goalies...keep the other as a backup. Then next year you roll Markstrom/Lehner and Ned/cheap vet/tweener, then ideally maybe Makiniemi or Koch work out shortly after. I'm not as worried about either of those 2 dropping off suddenly if it's on a 3-5 year deal. There are plenty of goalies who remain steady/solid as they get older (Thomas, Luongo, pre-2019 Anderson, Crawford, Lundqvist).

The biggest thing to consider is if we DON'T go after one of those guys, what do we do next year? We lose both Mrazek and Reimer, Ned isn't/won't be ready to be a starter, and our prospects are realistically 2-3 years away minimum (even if we draft Askarov). Which means we're entering our prime Cup without an NHL goalie. What's the UFA goalie market look like for 2021 or 2022?

Of course trades are still a possibility, maybe Georgiev shakes loose from NYR or Murray/Jarry from PIT...but of course both are IN the division and realistically neither NEEDS to be moved. NYR could easily re-sign Georgiev to roll with Shesty (buyout Lundy or dump him to a team with lots of cap space), no reason PIT couldn't keep Murray/Jarry. Honestly I'm STILL not sold on Murray being the guy, especially if we're trading assets in the division as he's been incredibly inconsistent over the past few years (49GP .907 in 17-18, 50GP .919 in 18-19, 38GP .899 in 19-20).

Obviously there are other options out there, this group has shown it's not afraid to make trades if value is there, but when you're taking a much bigger gamble giving up assets than getting a UFA. Sure, Gardiner has been a disappointment, but he only cost us money and a contract, Skjei not working out would hurt worse because we gave up a 1st+

 

[A Star is Burns]

Obviously all these guys won't be available, but year after next you get Rask, Lundqvist (if not bought out before), Andersen, Binnington, Dubnyk, Raanta, Grubauer, Mrazek, and Rittich for notable UFA options, not counting that a guy like Lehner could again be forced to take a 1 year deal this year with everything uncertain. You also may get trade options opened up based on where the guys this year and those guys next year sign.

Of course, by the end of next season, Mrazek could have had 3 solid years with this team and just as easily be brought back as one of the goalie options. I believe we also need to have some sort of goalie that is either RFA or under contract for the expansion draft after next season, but I don't remember if they have any NHL games played requirements.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Obviously all these guys won't be available, but year after next you get Rask, Lundqvist (if not bought out before), Andersen, Binnington, Dubnyk, Raanta, Grubauer, Mrazek, and Rittich for notable UFA options, not counting that a guy like Lehner could again be forced to take a 1 year deal this year with everything uncertain. You also may get trade options opened up based on where the guys this year and those guys next year sign.

Of course, by the end of next season, Mrazek could have had 3 solid years with this team and just as easily be brought back as one of the goalie options. I believe we also need to have some sort of goalie that is either RFA or under contract for the expansion draft after next season, but I don't remember if they have any NHL games played requirements.

Binnington will be highly sought after and probably out of our range. 3 of the big names will old and just short term fixes which, basically eliminates them. We still don’t have a heir apparent. Raanta (who is in the red for age) and Allen are about the only ones that are better than Mrazek. The rest of the best are similiar to Mrazek.

TBH, I wonder if a Bozak and Allen move could be had with STL for Dzingel. It allows money for STL to re-sign Pietrangelo. Give us a RHC who could play with Staal/ mentor Geekie and Necas.

Move Reimer. We would only add about 2.5 million in cap space. Allen and Mrazek would be a solid 1A/1B mix. We get to see what Allen can do in the system.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

My guess for goaltending is that the Canes will stick with the status quo, unless Holtby's UFA drags out past Day 1 and slowly becomes a potential value add. Then I could see them making some changes. I don't see them moving out Skjei or Gardiner until the Expansion Draft. I actually see them going 8-1 and protecting Aho/Turbo/Svech/Hamilton/Slavin/Pesce/Bean/Fleury (or Geekie, depending if his offense is for real or if he's like Poehling next year)/Nedeljkovic, with Staal waiving his NMC. That would set up a pick swap with Francis at the Expansion Draft in exchange for one of Skjei or Gardiner, likely the former IMO.