All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread Pt 11

[Boom Boom Apathy]

That's up to the FO to decide, though. Who knows if Ned is a scrub or if Ned is Francouz 2.0. I trust our goaltending scouts, no matter what their final decision is, seeing how they picked up Mrazek and Reimer, two imminently competent netminders, essentially from the trash heap.

I'm genuinely curious, who are "our goaltending scouts"? The pro scouts are: Mark Craig, Grant Sonier, Morey Gare, David Burstyn, John McNamara and Bobby Jay. Does one or two of them specialize in goalies? We switched goaltending coaches between last year (Mrazek acquisition) and this year (Reimer acquisition). I always wondered if the Canes have 1 or 2 guys that specialize in goalies or if it is just a small part of the job for the scouts.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm genuinely curious, who are "our goaltending scouts"? The pro scouts are: Mark Craig, Grant Sonier, Morey Gare, David Burstyn, John McNamara and Bobby Jay. Does one or two of them specialize in goalies? We switched goaltending coaches between last year (Mrazek acquisition) and this year (Reimer acquisition). I always wondered if the Canes have 1 or 2 guys that specialize in goalies or if it is just a small part of the job for the scouts.

I'm not sure exactly how they split the duties, however, under the new FO, they certainly seem to have their goaltending department in order. That's all that I'm saying.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think there was another massive change that might have made more difference in our turnaround in goaltending fortunes than any scout. He went to Chicago last season.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm not sure exactly how they split the duties, however, under the new FO, they certainly seem to have their goaltending department in order. That's all that I'm saying.

I think it's WAY too soon to say that they have it in order. It's 2 season with 2 different goalie coaches and multiple changes in the scouting department.

Last year, they banked on Darling which failed and then lucked out claiming McElhinney on waivers. Mrazek was a good pickup, but kind of a no brainer at that price and he was inconsistent (thankfully, McElhinney was on when he was off and vice versa.
This year, they only took Reimer to get rid of Darling with the intent of moving him. Even so, while SV% isn't a be all, end all, Reimer is 21st in the NHL and Mrazek is 38th out of 57 goalies with 20+ games and 21st and 23rd in GAA.

Clearly SV% and GAA are team related as well, but the guys have been pretty average this year. They haven't been the problem, but they haven't been great overall either.

 

[Svechhammer]

I think there was another massive change that might have made more difference in our turnaround in goaltending fortunes than any scout. He went to Chicago last season.

I wish we could have 2006-2014 Cam Ward playing behind the defense we have right now with someone like Mrazek or Reimer backing him up. Its so disappointing how badly we f***ed up basically everything we could have done to help him out.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think it's WAY too soon to say that they have it in order. It's 2 season with 2 different goalie coaches and multiple changes in the scouting department.

Last year, they banked on Darling which failed and then lucked out claiming McElhinney on waivers. Mrazek was a good pickup, but kind of a no brainer at that price and he was inconsistent (thankfully, McElhinney was on when he was off and vice versa.
This year, they only took Reimer to get rid of Darling with the intent of moving him. Even so, while SV% isn't a be all, end all, Reimer is 21st in the NHL and Mrazek is 38th out of 57 goalies with 20+ games and 21st and 23rd in GAA.

Clearly SV% and GAA are team related as well, but the guys have been pretty average this year. They haven't been the problem, but they haven't been great overall either.

I've generally been of the argument that SV% and GAA are often misleading stats when it comes to goaltending. Both Reimer and Mrazek have been some of the better netminders in the league this season in terms of save percentage above expectation. Carolina's one of those elite shot-suppression teams that give up few scoring opportunities but with an unusually-high percentage of them being high-danger to prime scoring chances. A key example of the opposite issue, where the SV% is higher on average but the overall goaltending is subpar at best analytically-speaking, is in Minnesota, where there's an elite defense that's also been coached to play a more conservative style.

 

[Svechhammer]

I think it's WAY too soon to say that they have it in order. It's 2 season with 2 different goalie coaches and multiple changes in the scouting department.

Last year, they banked on Darling which failed and then lucked out claiming McElhinney on waivers. Mrazek was a good pickup, but kind of a no brainer at that price and he was inconsistent (thankfully, McElhinney was on when he was off and vice versa.
This year, they only took Reimer to get rid of Darling with the intent of moving him. Even so, while SV% isn't a be all, end all, Reimer is 21st in the NHL and Mrazek is 38th out of 57 goalies with 20+ games and 21st and 23rd in GAA.

Clearly SV% and GAA are team related as well, but the guys have been pretty average this year. They haven't been the problem, but they haven't been great overall either.

I'd say average is probably fair for them, even with the eye test. They'll lose you a couple games a year with bad play, but for the most part they'll do a competent job in net. Unfortunately, they're not really capable of stealing a game for you, either, so it really relies on the rest of the team performing nightly to win.

If we had a goalie capable of stealing some wins throughout the year, that would be a huge change for our outlook. Sometimes I think we play a little too tight because we know we have to protect our goalie defensively, where we excel when we are able to take some changes and really attack the opponent.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I wish we could have 2006-2014 Cam Ward playing behind the defense we have right now with someone like Mrazek or Reimer backing him up. Its so disappointing how badly we f***ed up basically everything we could have done to help him out.

As much as I've bagged on the guy, I agree. I still love Cam Ward. I was just watching some old highlight videos I created long ago, and man, he really was a shell of himself by the end. My bitterness over him being kept too long will, and already is, fading. I do think him being gone has helped our two most current teams though.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'd say average is probably fair for them, even with the eye test. They'll lose you a couple games a year with bad play, but for the most part they'll do a competent job in net. Unfortunately, they're not really capable of stealing a game for you, either, so it really relies on the rest of the team performing nightly to win.

If we had a goalie capable of stealing some wins throughout the year, that would be a huge change for our outlook. Sometimes I think we play a little too tight because we know we have to protect our goalie defensively, where we excel when we are able to take some changes and really attack the opponent.

I think there have absolutely been games that Mrazek has stolen, even if he doesn't do it all the time.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I think there have absolutely been games that Mrazek has stolen, even if he doesn't do it all the time.

And again, I've described above about how our system naturally leads to lower SV% for goalies. We have an elite defense that's simultaneously extremely offensively-oriented. That leads to elite shot suppression, elite puck possession, and (as a trade-off) lots of high-danger scoring opportunities.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I think it's WAY too soon to say that they have it in order. It's 2 season with 2 different goalie coaches and multiple changes in the scouting department.

Last year, they banked on Darling which failed and then lucked out claiming McElhinney on waivers. Mrazek was a good pickup, but kind of a no brainer at that price and he was inconsistent (thankfully, McElhinney was on when he was off and vice versa.
This year, they only took Reimer to get rid of Darling with the intent of moving him. Even so, while SV% isn't a be all, end all, Reimer is 21st in the NHL and Mrazek is 38th out of 57 goalies with 20+ games and 21st and 23rd in GAA.

Clearly SV% and GAA are team related as well, but the guys have been pretty average this year. They haven't been the problem, but they haven't been great overall either.

Agreed. They also had a chance to pick up Lehner last year but went with Mrazek (though we don't know, maybe Lehner had no interest in us)...and again at trade deadline (though we spent our assets on Skjei & Trochek). Ned hasn't really developed tons, and looks like he may be a backup/tweener at best. Neither Booth nor Helvig even got a chance (1 game each) to develop or prove themselves at the AHL level. Kotchetkov is a completely random dart right now that could be ECHLer to NHLer or anything in between after the up-and-down year he had. Did Kucharski even get to play this year? LaFontaine seemed to have a solid if unspectacular NCAA year but I've heard absolutely nothing about him from anyone anywhere...is he continuing NCAA? Signing? UFA? Makiniemi is really the only goalie/prospect who really stepped things up this year, .936 SV% in 27 Liiga games, that puts him around the top of that league (he battled Dostal who had a lower SV% but 2x games for their team). I really want to get him over to the Checkers next year and see what we have in him, was it just inflated Liiga performance (like the KHL can do for goalies) or is he perhaps our best chance internally for the future? We have some darts, and we know goalies are voodoo so darts are great to have. But like BBA said, we definitely have nothing to say "we have our goaltending department in order"

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I've generally been of the argument that SV% and GAA are often misleading stats when it comes to goaltending. Both Reimer and Mrazek have been some of the better netminders in the league this season in terms of save percentage above expectation. Carolina's one of those elite shot-suppression teams that give up few scoring opportunities but with an unusually-high percentage of them being high-danger to prime scoring chances. A key example of the opposite issue, where the SV% is higher on average but the overall goaltending is subpar at best analytically-speaking, is in Minnesota, where there's an elite defense that's also been coached to play a more conservative style.

There's lots of ways to look at data. This data, for instance, which is has Goals Saved Above Average says that they have not been some of the better netminders. It says Riemer is 26th, slightly above average and Mrazek is 46th, below average.

2019-20 NHL Goalie Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

I don't think they've been "bad", nor the problem, I just think they've average, both from the eye test and most numbers. I also agree we tend to give up more high danger chances so it impacts numbers.

Either way, I don't see a compelling case to say with not even 2 years of data, that our "goaltending scouts" have their act together. You seem to like to spin every thing into "This management team is doing everything great" though, and that's fine.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

There's lots of ways to look at data. This data, for instance, which is has Goals Saved Above Average says that they have not been some of the better netminders. It says Riemer is 26th, slightly above average and Mrazek is 46th, below average.

2019-20 NHL Goalie Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

I don't think they've been "bad", nor the problem, I just think they've average, both from the eye test and most numbers. I also agree we tend to give up more high danger chances so it impacts numbers.

Either way, I don't see a compelling case to say with not even 2 years of data, that our "goaltending scouts" have their act together. You seem to like to spin every thing into "This management team is doing everything great" though, and that's fine.

I think that our management team is excellent. They're not perfect, of course, however, more often than not, they've made the right choices in terms of asset management and talent assessment. If there's one thing in our organization that I think could improve some, though, it would probably be our coaching. I would love to have Gerard Gallant on our bench, ideally as HC but even as an assistant, and I think that he would be an excellent coach to have for our roster.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

The goaltending isn't a problem. It's just not really a solution. Mrazek and Reimer/McElhinney have been perfectly fine, very average. "Average" is seen as a bad thing but it's not necessarily - the 16th team in the league is "average" and makes the playoffs. But obviously a team with eventual Cup aspirations would like to upgrade on "average" just about everywhere and anywhere they can.

 

[A Star is Burns]

The problem is always going to be taking that next goaltending step. Even when a guy that was elite like Holtby possibly comes on the market, he's been pretty meh or worse the last few years other than one playoff run. A guy like Georgiev that might be worth a chance could become available, and it's in our division much like Grubauer. As mentioned, we don't likely have any prospect close to being that guy, though you never know how that can change with goalies. It's just going to be the hardest box to check at this point.

In the meantime, competent is not the worst place to be.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think that our management team is excellent. They're not perfect, of course, however, more often than not, they've made the right choices in terms of asset management and talent assessment.

That's fine. I like the management group and like the majority of their decisions as well. It just seems you go out of your way to prop them up in situations where, IMO, it isn't warranted. We have 1.5 years of decent goaltending. They didn't do anything earth shattering to get there and it's still been pretty average, so the jury is still out IMO. Like I said, it's better than what we've had (we always said "if only we had average goaltending"), and I'll trust their decisions until they give me a reason not to, but no need to go overboard with the praise. To each their own.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

That's fine. I like the management group and like the majority of their decisions as well. It just seems you go out of your way to prop them up in situations where, IMO, it isn't warranted. We have 1.5 years of decent goaltending. They didn't do anything earth shattering to get there and it's still been pretty average, so the jury is still out IMO. Like I said, it's better than what we've had (we always said "if only we had average goaltending"), and I'll trust their decisions until they give me a reason not to, but no need to go overboard with the praise. To each their own.

Well, getting anything of value for Scott Darling's contract corpse is a near-master stroke from an asset-management standpoint, but other than that, I do agree with you that our goaltending has mostly been average these past couple of years in terms of performance. I also think that our FO had been originally dealt a terrible hand in that department when they took over, and that it will take a while to get our goaltending fully on track. Perhaps our team will get the good fortune of Askarov falling to us, but that's very unlikely. I think that it's most likely that our final solution will come from one or two of our in-house, drafted guys, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it came via trade.

 

[GoldiFox]

Well, getting anything of value for Scott Darling's contract corpse is a near-master stroke from an asset-management standpoint, but other than that, I do agree with you that our goaltending has mostly been average these past couple of years in terms of performance. I also think that our FO had been originally dealt a terrible hand in that department when they took over, and that it will take a while to get our goaltending fully on track. Perhaps our team will get the good fortune of Askarov falling to us, but that's very unlikely. I think that it's most likely that our final solution will come from one or two of our in-house, drafted guys, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it came via trade.

Darling for Reimer was just a serendipitous circumstance. Florida bringing in Bobrovsky forced them into buyout Reimer. Darling's buyout was slightly more favorable than Reimer's due to Reimer's $2.2 million signing bonus this coming offseason. Canes sweetened the pot with a 6th round pick.

There is still the question of whether or not the Canes would be better off right now if they had just bought out Darling and either 1) looked for a true #1 or 2) gave Nedeljkovic/Forsberg a much longer look. For what he is, Reimer played well this year but it's hard to compare vs. the unknown.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Darling for Reimer was just a serendipitous circumstance. Florida bringing in Bobrovsky forced them into buyout Reimer. Darling's buyout was slightly more favorable than Reimer's due to Reimer's $2.2 million signing bonus this coming offseason. Canes sweetened the pot with a 6th round pick.

There is still the question of whether or not the Canes would be better off right now if they had just bought out Darling and either 1) looked for a true #1 or 2) gave Nedeljkovic/Forsberg a much longer look. For what he is, Reimer played well this year but it's hard to compare vs. the unknown.

I do still wonder to this day about which FO actually came up with the idea. Just based on the fact that Florida's FO is pretty damn incompetent, I'm 70-80% sure that it was on our end, but at the time that the deal was conjured up, Florida hadn't yet signed Bobrovsky and they were desperately shopping Reimer with no takers since the entire league basically knew that they wanted both Panarin and Bob incredibly badly. All of a sudden, Carolina just swooped in and did Florida a "favor" just so that they could lock themselves up to yet another anchor contract. Whoever it was in our FO that saw that Reimer was a victim of Florida's awful defense and not vice versa deserves a nice raise.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I do still wonder to this day about which FO actually came up with the idea. Just based on the fact that Florida's FO is pretty damn incompetent, I'm 70-80% sure that it was on our end, but at the time that the deal was conjured up, Florida hadn't yet signed Bobrovsky and they were desperately shopping Reimer with no takers since the entire league basically knew that they wanted both Panarin and Bob incredibly badly. All of a sudden, Carolina just swooped in and did Florida a "favor" just so that they could lock themselves up to yet another anchor contract. Whoever it was in our FO that saw that Reimer was a victim of Florida's awful defense and not vice versa deserves a nice raise.

Rask for Nino 2.0...even when he's disappointing he's better than Rask, even when Reimer was at his worst he was better than Darling

 

[Svechhammer]

The goaltending isn't a problem. It's just not really a solution. Mrazek and Reimer/McElhinney have been perfectly fine, very average. "Average" is seen as a bad thing but it's not necessarily - the 16th team in the league is "average" and makes the playoffs. But obviously a team with eventual Cup aspirations would like to upgrade on "average" just about everywhere and anywhere they can.

We had a Stanley Cup Finals in the past 10 years that matched Antii Niemi and Michael Leighton. Average goaltending can absolutely win you a Cup as long as you have some elite strengths elsewhere. I think we can have an elite strength at defense, but for some reason they never quite gel completely. If they did, we could legitimately dogwalk the rest of the league in the playoffs given the scoring ability we have, so I am confident we absolutely could win a Cup with Mrazek, Ned, Reimer, etc. That being said, we shouldn't settle for those guys, and if an opportunity presents itself to get a top end goalie, we should explore it.

Darling for Reimer was just a serendipitous circumstance. Florida bringing in Bobrovsky forced them into buyout Reimer. Darling's buyout was slightly more favorable than Reimer's due to Reimer's $2.2 million signing bonus this coming offseason. Canes sweetened the pot with a 6th round pick.

There is still the question of whether or not the Canes would be better off right now if they had just bought out Darling and either 1) looked for a true #1 or 2) gave Nedeljkovic/Forsberg a much longer look. For what he is, Reimer played well this year but it's hard to compare vs. the unknown.

And the same was said about the Marleau buyout, taking advantage of Chicago's Cap situation to get Turbo, trading Rask for Nino, and getting McIlhenny off waivers. At a certain point, is it fate just opening the right move at the right time for us, or is it more that we have quietly developed a savvy front office that is always prepared to pounce on a good opportunity when it presents itself?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

And the same was said about the Marleau buyout, taking advantage of Chicago's Cap situation to get Turbo, trading Rask for Nino, and getting McIlhenny off waivers. At a certain point, is it fate just opening the right move at the right time for us, or is it more that we have quietly developed a savvy front office that is always prepared to pounce on a good opportunity when it presents itself?

This wasn't the same front office.

And while I agree with you on Rask/Nino and Marleau buyout were savvy, claiming a goalie off waivers when we had an injury to Darling (who stunk), and Mrazek who was coming off a bad year, isn't really savvy. It's making the only move available.

 

[WreckingCrew]

We had a Stanley Cup Finals in the past 10 years that matched Antii Niemi and Michael Leighton. Average goaltending can absolutely win you a Cup as long as you have some elite strengths elsewhere. I think we can have an elite strength at defense, but for some reason they never quite gel completely. If they did, we could legitimately dogwalk the rest of the league in the playoffs given the scoring ability we have, so I am confident we absolutely could win a Cup with Mrazek, Ned, Reimer, etc. That being said, we shouldn't settle for those guys, and if an opportunity presents itself to get a top end goalie, we should explore it.

That's definitely the exception rather than the rule, and in the end the better goalie was on the winning team...what are the odds we get to the Cup Finals with Mrazek and face a Schneider or Jones? I get what you're saying and don't disagree, but the odds are incredibly slim of catching that kind of lightning in a bottle

 

[Svechhammer]

This wasn't the same front office.

And while I agree with you on Rask/Nino and Marleau buyout were savvy, claiming a goalie off waivers when we had an injury to Darling (who stunk), and Mrazek who was coming off a bad year, isn't really savvy. It's making the only move available.

Not the same front office, yes... But I was always under the impression this was the first of many Tulsky moves. It pretty much ticks all the boxes of something he'd recommend, and I guess I always figured that this move is what helped him rapidly ascend through our organization.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

This wasn't the same front office.

And while I agree with you on Rask/Nino and Marleau buyout were savvy, claiming a goalie off waivers when we had an injury to Darling (who stunk), and Mrazek who was coming off a bad year, isn't really savvy. It's making the only move available.

There were several goalies throughout training camp that passed through waivers that year, just like every other training camp. Carolina just happened to claim the best possible choice of the bunch. Yes, Carolina had to make the best of a bad situation, but a lot of FOs around the league don't and instead let the problem fester.