All Purpose Trade / Roster Building Thread Pt 11

[A Star is Burns]

I've still yet to see a compelling reason why Tampa wants to move Cirelli aside from our side of the equation. They have other guys they can move out before him that will/do make more. While I'm sure they'd love to have Pesce, they have some good players on D and will likely always be able to get bargain vets to fill out while they are a contender, so why move out this young future Selke winner? It seems like nonsense.

 

[2Minutes4Surging]

I've still yet to see a compelling reason why Tampa wants to move Cirelli aside from our side of the equation. They have other guys they can move out before him that will/do make more. While I'm sure they'd love to have Pesce, they have some good players on D and will likely always be able to get bargain vets to fill out while they are a contender, so why move out this young future Selke winner? It seems like nonsense.

Moving on from Cirelli may be their only option as the "other guys" (Johnson, Killorn, Gourde and Palat) all have NTC's, and they will only have around $5 million to sign Sergachev, Cirelli, Cernak, Stephens, Verhaeghe + 2 more defenders. I realize they can call up some players from the A, but something has got to give.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Moving on from Cirelli may be their only option as the "other guys" (Johnson, Killorn, Gourde and Palat) all have NTC's, and they will only have around $5 million to sign Sergachev, Cirelli, Cernak, Stephens, Verhaeghe + 2 more defenders. I realize they can call up some players from the A, but something has got to give.

I still don't find that particularly compelling. NTCs can be gotten around many times. They my have issues with every guy saying no, but I don't think they will. They've been pretty good at strong arming better young players than Cirelli into pretty good bridge deals, so I don't think they'll save that much by moving him out.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Moving on from Cirelli may be their only option as the "other guys" (Johnson, Killorn, Gourde and Palat) all have NTC's, and they will only have around $5 million to sign Sergachev, Cirelli, Cernak, Stephens, Verhaeghe + 2 more defenders. I realize they can call up some players from the A, but something has got to give.

Killorn's NTC doesn't kick in until the start of this upcoming season, so Killorn's very likely quite easy to move. Other than him, though, yes, it's more difficult. Again, though, my #1 target this offseason would be Cirelli and it isn't really close. The guy's a great-to-borderline-elite player on both ends of the ice. Make room by moving Trocheck to Cirelli's RW. That two-way punch of Aho/Cirelli/Staal/Geekie down the middle is drool-worthy. It's worth giving a Pesce in return, at least in my book, especially if Cernak can come the other way, as well (with picks and prospects to balance everything out).

 

[A Star is Burns]

NTCs aren't always about not getting traded. They are about control and leverage. These guys can work with Tampa (if that's the route they decide to go) or Tampa can threaten a different route. If I recall, it worked on Dan Boyle once upon a time.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Killorn can go to anybody. He'll likely be moved to a Ottawa, Montreal, or NJ that has a ton of Cap space coming up

Johnson, Palat, and Gourde would be more willing to waive to a competitor with some cap space like us and Colorado.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Killorn can go to anybody. He'll likely be moved to a Ottawa, Montreal, or NJ that has a ton of Cap space coming up

Johnson, Palat, and Gourde would be more willing to waive to a competitor with some cap space like us and Colorado.

Yes. If Tampa wants to hold onto Cirelli/Sergachev/Cernak, the path likely revolves around us. Ideally, I would want Cirelli, but that would be a last resort move for Tampa. More likely it'll be a move for Gourde or Palat. I expect that Gourde in particular would love Carolina and the Bunch of Jerks environment. Sakic is being quite conservative with cap space because they want to make damn sure that Makar, Landeskog, Burakovsky, and Grubauer are locked down pat before they make any more moves.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Yes. If Tampa wants to hold onto Cirelli/Sergachev/Cernak, the path likely revolves around us. Ideally, I would want Cirelli, but that would be a last resort move for Tampa. More likely it'll be a move for Gourde or Palat. Sakic is being quite conservative with cap space because they want to make damn sure that Makar, Landeskog, Burakovsky, and Grubauer are locked down pat before they make any more moves.

Palat is number one target for me. A more frequent hitting Nino that is only locked in for 2 more seasons. Would be a great addition on any line.
Johnson is number 2 but we would have to be committed to playing him on a top line. His numbers really suffered as he was pushed to the 3rd line. Im not sure we quite have the wingers for him to center line 1 or 2 but sticking him with Staal would be bad. Johnson's numbers would be like they are now and that isnt someone who should be paid 5mil +. Especially not with 4 years of term.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Palat is number one target for me. A more frequent hitting Nino that is only locked in for 2 more seasons. Would be a great addition on any line.
Johnson is number 2 but we would have to be committed to playing him on a top line. His numbers really suffered as he was pushed to the 3rd line. Im not sure we quite have the wingers for him to center line 1 or 2 but sticking him with Staal would be bad. Johnson's numbers would be like they are now and that isnt someone who should be paid 5mil +. Especially not with 4 years of term.

You're right that as far as contracts are concerned, Palat would be the best fit. He's probably not the guy that Tampa wants to trade, though, and their asking price is going to be rather steep. My guess is that Tampa will first trade Killorn, and then whichever one of Gourde or Johnson is willing to waive his NTC to Carolina (my personal preference between those two would be Gourde, who's always had solid analytics even in down years and plays a style close to the net that is quite different than anyone currently in our lineup). Right afterwards, they'll ink bridge deals for Cirelli/Sergachev and a long-term deal for Cernak.

 

[2Minutes4Surging]

NTCs aren't always about not getting traded. They are about control and leverage. These guys can work with Tampa (if that's the route they decide to go) or Tampa can threaten a different route. If I recall, it worked on Dan Boyle once upon a time.

I get that it's more about control than anything, but these players would also potentially be giving up a lot of money by accepting a trade to most destinations. I would not sign off on a trade knowing that I have to give away 15-25% for state income taxes while also losing half my contract to escrow because HRR is down due to Covid-19. I think Tampa will be pretty handcuffed by these guys and may have to explore other options. I would definitely be in favor of swapping Pesce for Cirelli and Cernak myself, and fwiw Pesce is my favorite player. It wouldn't be the first time this FO moved on from a player coming back from shoulder surgery..

 

[A Star is Burns]

I get that it's more about control than anything, but these players would also potentially be giving up a lot of money by accepting a trade to most destinations. I would not sign off on a trade knowing that I have to give away 15-25% for state income taxes while also losing half my contract to escrow because HRR is down due to Covid-19. I think Tampa will be pretty handcuffed by these guys and may have to explore other options. I would definitely be in favor of swapping Pesce for Cirelli and Cernak myself, and fwiw Pesce is my favorite player. It wouldn't be the first time this FO moved on from a player coming back from shoulder surgery..

Again, if Tampa is in a tough situation, there is zero to stop them from threatening waivers where these guys will get picked up by a team like Detroit. It would suck for Tampa to lose a guy for nothing at that point, but they have that option. At that point, the players lose control of the situation and lose the money. Certainly they may not agree to a trade to anywhere, but playing hardball may not be smart either.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

Tyler Johnson is from Spokane. There might be something there where he’s willing to go to Seattle.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I get that it's more about control than anything, but these players would also potentially be giving up a lot of money by accepting a trade to most destinations. I would not sign off on a trade knowing that I have to give away 15-25% for state income taxes

I’m confused by what you mean on the 15-25%.

Players are taxed where each game is played, so for each away game, they are subjected to the income taxes from that location (Jock Tax). So Florida’s 0% income tax rate applies to only ~1/2 of the salary (home games).

For 1/2 of games (home games), N.C.s tax rate is 5.25%. Even NYC has a top rate in the 12% range..

so a trade to Carolina would have ~2.6% state income tax impact: 5.25% * 50% (Only home games) and a trade to a NYC team would be a 6-7% hit. Still not insignificant.

i realize tax returns are vastly more complex than my example and there are other factors such as residency, bonuses, Some players set up corporations, a few other locations don’t have jock taxes, etc., but I’m confused by the 15-25% number.

 

[MinJaBen]

I’m confused by what you mean on the 15-25%.

Players are taxed where each game is played, so for each away game, they are subjected to the income taxes from that location (Jock Tax). So Florida’s 0% income tax rate applies to only ~1/2 of the salary (home games).

For 1/2 of games (home games), N.C.s tax rate is 5.25%. Even NYC has a top rate in the 12% range..

so a trade to Carolina would have ~2.6% state income tax impact: 5.25% * 50% (Only home games) and a trade to a NYC team would be a 6-7% hit. Still not insignificant.

i realize tax returns are vastly more complex than my example and there are other factors such as residency, bonuses, Some players set up corporations, a few other locations don’t have jock taxes, etc., but I’m confused by the 15-25% number.

Maybe the poster is Canadian or one of our Euro-friends. That could explain their estimate.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I'm weary of more major turnover. While the moves of Summer 18 ended up paying off after a rocky start, the outcome resulting from the moves of Summer and Deadline 19 is uncertain. Pieces don't always fit. Chemistry is not guaranteed.

I like the makeup of the core group. I see legit Cup contention in the future, if Svechnikov continues his ascent and Necas hits on his upside. Let it play out.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maybe the poster is Canadian or one of our Euro-friends. That could explain their estimate.

Ah right, I forgot about the metric system.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm weary of more major turnover. While the moves of Summer 18 ended up paying off after a rocky start, the outcome resulting from the moves of Summer and Deadline 19 is uncertain. Pieces don't always fit. Chemistry is not guaranteed.

I like the makeup of the core group. I see legit Cup contention in the future, if Svechnikov continues his ascent and Necas hits on his upside. Let it play out.

I agree in a sense. In some years, status quo is nice to have. Maybe the smart idea is to use that cap space to extend Foegele and Fleury to long-term deals that could look like bargains in the future, rather than bridging them or trading them for other needs/good draft picks/roster space for the hypothetical Cirelli & Cernak. I will say, though, that taking swings on fresh talent infusions can help the core grow instead of stagnate (like say, Winnipeg). So I think that it's a balance.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I agree in a sense. In some years, status quo is nice to have. Maybe the smart idea is to use that cap space to extend Foegele and Fleury to long-term deals that could look like bargains in the future, rather than bridging them or trading them for other needs/good draft picks/roster space for the hypothetical Cirelli & Cernak. I will say, though, that taking swings on fresh talent infusions can help the core grow instead of stagnate (like say, Winnipeg). So I think that it's a balance.

Winnipeg's issue was core erosion; losing the 2C and the entire right side of a defense that made the WC finals is a rather dramatic loss of talent. I digress.

The bolded can be done via free agency or trading on the margins. Trocheck is an example of latter. Pesce is good enough to be the lead guy on the 2nd pairing of a cup winner, imo. I'm only giving that up if there's a real need in the upper half of the forward group. They should plan on that to not be the case; Aho, Teravainen, Svechnikov and a Necas has the potential to be as good as needed in the absence of a true top-end scorer. Chasing value could end up being change for the sake of change and that can be really hit and miss.